Investigating the temporal and spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype C in the Region of South America, 1968-2016.

This study investigates the historical temporal trend and geographical distribution of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDv) serotype C in South America; discussing the findings within the context of the actions and strategies carried out for the elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This is the first time that such a comprehensive historical compilation has been carried out in the Region; hence, the study is intended as a reference and source of evidence about the presence/absence of FMDv serotype C in South America. Data on the occurrence of FMD were sourced from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports submitted by the countries to Pan American Foot-and-Mouth Disease Center (PANAFTOSA-PAHO/WHO) since 1972, and complemented with other sources of information from the 1968-1971 period. The temporal distribution was examined with local weighted regression (LOESS) to identify two temporal trends, that is, "smoothed" and "over-adjusted", utilising the time-series with the total number of cases per year, at Regional level. Thereafter the outbreaks were aggregated by decades and mapped by the first subnational administrative level. As a result, two major peaks of occurrence were identified, one in the 70s, with up to 1,193 outbreaks, and another in the 80s, with 380. Overall, the investigations show a clear regressive trend in the occurrence of serotype C, with a reduction in the number of outbreaks over-time, and with the subsequent reduction of affected locations. This study illustrates the contrast between the very limited presence over the last 20 years - with only one event in 2004 - and the epidemic situation in the 1970s and 1980s, and suggests that serotype C of FMDv is no longer present in the Region.

Within herd transmission and evaluation of the performance of clinical and serological diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease in partially immune cattle herds.

The control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in vaccinated populations relies upon surveillance activities such as clinical inspections (CI) and serological monitoring. New evidence to refine current surveillance guidelines has been provided by evaluating (1) the diagnostic performance of CI and serological tests for detection of FMD virus (FMDV) non-structural proteins (NSP), and (2) the within-herd transmission of the virus in partially immune cattle. Data came from 23 affected herds during an epidemic of FMDV type O in Bolivia, in 2007. All cattle (n=957) in these herds were clinically inspected and serum samples were collected one month after the last animal with clinical signs was detected. Samples were tested for the presence of antibodies against NSP using the PANAFTOSA 3ABC-ELISA test and a subset of samples were tested using the enzyme-linked immunoelectrotransfer blot assay (EITB). Data from clinical and serological diagnoses were analysed using a Bayesian model. The sensitivity Se and specificity Sp of the tests, as well as the prevalence and the within-herd reproduction ratio R of FMDV were estimated. In addition, risk factors for infection were identified. The Se of CI, the 3ABC-ELISA and the EITB tests were estimated to be 0.30, 0.88 and 0.96 respectively. The estimated Sp, in the same order, were 0.88, 0.93 and 0.97. The within-herd prevalence of infected animals ranged from 0.04 to 0.91 and R ranged from 1.02 to 2.68. It was observed that cattle coming from areas with high vaccination coverage had a lower risk of becoming infected than home-bred cattle from the affected herds, where vaccination coverage was thought to be low. Although these estimates come from herds kept under specific conditions, they provide a reference for future surveillance design and can inform simulation models for surveillance and control of FMD in similar cattle populations.

Factors associated with within-herd transmission of serotype A foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle, during the 2001 outbreak in Argentina: a protective effect of vaccination.

Argentina suffered an extensive foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic between July 2000 and January 2002, 3 months after obtaining the official FMD-free without vaccination status conferred by the World Organization for Animal Health. This is one of the largest FMD epidemics controlled by implementation of a systematic mass vaccination campaign in an FMD-free country. In 2000, 124 herds were reported as FMD positive, 2394 herds in 2001 and one in January 2002; the total number of cattle herds in the country at that time was approximately 230 000. Estimates of FMD transmission are important to understand the dynamics of disease spread and for estimating the value for the parameterization of disease transmission models, with the ultimate goals of predicting its spread, assessing and designing control strategies, conducting economic analyses and supporting the decision-making process. In this study, the within-herd coefficient of transmission, ß, was computed for herds affected in the 2001 FMD epidemic and categorized as low or high based on the median value of ß. A logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors significantly associated with high values of ß. Results suggested that the odds of having a high within-herd transmission were significantly associated with time from initial herd infection to disease detection, date of report, vaccination, and time from initial herd infection to herd vaccination. Results presented in this study demonstrate, in quantifiable terms, the protective impact of vaccination in reducing FMD transmission in infected herds. These results will be useful for the parameterization of epidemiological models aimed at quantifying the impact of vaccination and for the design and implementation of FMD emergency vaccination strategies in face of an epidemic.

Risk evaluation of nonvaccinated, weaned calves transported through areas under systematic foot and mouth disease (FMD) vaccination.

The recurrence and persistence of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could be the consequence of cyclic and massive transportation of calves. For this reason, in South America, vaccination strategies related to livestock dynamic are being promoted. In order to aid the evaluation of such strategies, a method for predicting the risk of transportation of nonvaccinated weaned calves was developed; this method combines expert opinion and empirical evidence using Bayesian estimators. It was applied through Monte Carlo simulation to data of Argentina under four hypothetical vaccination schemes: E1, extended vaccination season of 1/6 of the population of calves each month from July to December without second round vaccination (SRV); E2, extended irregular vaccination from July to December with SRV applied to 70% of the calves resembling the scheme applied in Argentina in 2001; E3, vaccination in November and December without SRV; and E4, vaccination concentrated in November. E1 resulted in probability of transporting non vaccinated calves (tnvc) reaching its maximum in the following year in May with mean=0.0250 and percentile 95% (P95)=0.0404; for the same month tnvc estimates for the other schemes were E2: mean=0.0071; P95=0.0162; E3: mean=0.0017; P95=0.0042 and E4: mean=0.0001; P95=0.0004. Bonferroni multiple comparison for simultaneous assertions for May showed that E4 resulted the best scheme, E1 the worst, and E2 and E3 are intermediate with nonsignificant difference observed between overall (p<0.05). Results were consistent with historical records and quantification for future needs for re-vaccination was made possible. While the ratio "total vaccinated"/"total estimated existences" will give a biased vision of vaccination coverage under the situation of extended vaccination campaigns, a model as the one developed here could allow a more accurate assessment and the design of mitigation plans.

Survey for foot-and-mouth disease in the endangered marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from marshlands of the Parana River Basin, Brazil.

Habitat fragmentation and diseases have resulted in a decline of the marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) throughout its South American range. Our objectives were to determine whether marsh deer intended for translocation from a region of the Rio Paraná Basin had been infected previously by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and whether they were carrying virus. We captured marsh deer from June to October 1998 and collected blood from 108 animals and esophageal-pharyngeal fluid from 53. Serum was tested for antibodies against three FMDV serotypes (O, A, and C) by liquid-phase-blocking sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Esophageal-pharyngeal fluid was tested for FMDV RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and inoculation into three successive baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cell subcultures, followed by RT-PCR of cultures. We detected low log(10) titers (range 1.0-1.5) to FMDV subtype A(24) Cruzeiro in 19 of 108 sampled marsh deer, but failed to isolate FMDV or detect FMDV RNA in any samples. We conclude that marsh deer from our study site were unlikely to carry FMDV; however, as a preventive measure, the 19 animals with titers for FMDV were not sent to FMDV-free Brazilian states.

Herd reproduction ratio and time-space analysis of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Peru in 2004.

The herd reproductive ratio (Rh) and spatio-temporal clustering were estimated in the 2004 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Peru. The epidemic lasted 39 days and involved 26 herds. Movement of cattle was restricted, all susceptible species within a 25-km buffer zone were revaccinated, and infected animals with clinical signs of FMD were killed or destroyed to control and eradicate the disease. The Rh declined from 5.3 on the second day of the epidemic to 1.31 on the 25th day. Spatio-temporal clustering of cases was detected at a critical distance of 0.5 km and critical times of 7 and 14 days. Cases were clustered in space (P=0.006) but not in time (P=0.498). The space-time scan method detected a spatio-temporal cluster that included consecutive case numbers 13, 14 and 15, located at the temporal midpoint of the epidemic. The values estimated for Rh and the cluster analyses provide quantitative estimates of the self-limiting nature of FMD spread in a susceptible but vaccinated population.

Economic aspects of foot and mouth disease in Bolivia.

The paper presents results from two economic analyses of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Bolivia. Both recommended a programme to eradicate the disease, but one reported a negative economic return while the later study found a positive and robust return. To investigate the reasons for these differences the paper presents information on cattle movement and how this relates to the epidemiological situation of FMD in Bolivia. This analysis identifies two important trade routes: southern and central cattle trade routes and two FMD endemic areas: the humid tropical areas of the Departments of the Beni and Santa Cruz, and the semi-arid subtropical area to the south east of the country known as the Bolivian Chaco. The farm-level incentives to control FMD in the endemic areas, where cattle are kept in extensive systems, are negative and the main losses caused by the disease occur four to six years after an outbreak. Given this situation it is suggested that resources being used to eradicate the disease in Bolivia should be concentrated in these endemic areas where convincing cattle owners of the need to control FMD is particularly difficult. It is also suggested that the eradication programme should coordinate its activities with neighbouring countries.

[Foot and mouth disease in human beings. A human case in Chile]. / Fiebre aftosa en seres humanos. Un caso en Chile.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) of cattle can cause a significant economic burden and is thus for one of the most feared of cattle disease. FMD is endemic in South America, Africa, Asia and parts of Europe and it is characterized by vesicles in different locations, mainly mouth, feet and teats leading to severe animal weakness. Currently most countries refuse to import livestock and livestock products from FMD areas. North and Central America are currently free of FMD and Chile is free of FMD from 1987. Approximately 40 cases of human infection with FMD virus have been reported, mostly in Europe, and confirmed by virus isolation and the detection of a specific immune response. We discuss the case of a human infection with FMD virus occurred in Chile in 1961 and other relevant cases reported. FMD does not currently present a threat to public health. Even though the FMD virus has the potential to mutate rapidly and emerge as a significant human zoonosis; the rarity of the disease in humans despite a long history of close contact with FMD infected animals suggests that the risk is highly improbable. Then FMD should not be managed as a zoonosis.

Fiebre aftosa en seres humanos: Un caso en Chile / Foot and mouth disease in human beings: A human case in Chile

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) of cattle can cause a significant economic burden and is thus for one of the most feared of cattle disease. FMD is endemic in South America, Africa, Asia and parts of Europe and it is characterized by vesicles in different locations, mainly mouth, feet and teats leading to severe animal weakness. Currently most countries refuse to import livestock and livestock products from FMD areas. North and Central America are currently free of FMD and Chile is free of FMD from 1987. Approximately 40 cases of human infection with FMD virus have been reported, mostly in Europe, and confirmed by virus isolation and the detection of a specific immune response. We discuss the case of a human infection with FMD virus occurred in Chile in 1961 and other relevant cases reported. FMD does not currently present a threat to public health. Even though the FMD virus has the potential to mutate rapidly and emerge as a significant human zoonosis; the rarity of the disease in humans despite a long history of close contact with FMD infected animals suggests that the risk is highly improbable. Then FMD should not be managed as a zoonosis.

La fiebre aftosa se presenta en los biungulados, siendo el cerdo el animal más susceptible. La infección de estos animales lleva a cuantiosas pérdidas económicas por disminución de la producción de leche o carne. En la actualidad esta enfermedad constituye una plaga que causa serios trastornos en el comercio pecuario mundial y se la considera como una enfermedad trans-fronteriza. Chile está libre se esta enfermedad desde 1987. La fiebre aftosa en seres humanos ha sido descrita principalmente en Europa, habiéndose confirmado, aproximadamente, unos 40 casos por aislamiento viral y detección de anticuerpos específicos. Se describen los principales casos de fiebre aftosa en seres humanos descritos en la literatura científica, incluyendo un caso ocurrido en Chile en 1961. Se discute la importancia de esta enfermedad en seres humanos y se cuestiona el planteamiento de que es una zoonosis.

The role of spatial mixing in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

A model of epidemic dispersal (based on the assumption that susceptible cattle were homogeneously mixed over space, or non-spatial model) was compared to a partially spatially explicit and discrete model (the spatial model), which was composed of differential equations and used geo-coded data (Euclidean distances between county centroids). While the spatial model accounted for intra- and inter-county epidemic spread, the non-spatial model did not assess regional differences. A geo-coded dataset that resembled conditions favouring homogeneous mixing assumptions (based on the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic), was used for testing. Significant differences between models were observed in the average transmission rate between farms, both before and after a control policy (animal movement ban) was imposed. They also differed in terms of daily number of infected farms: the non-spatial model revealed a single epidemic peak (at, approximately, 25 epidemic days); while the spatial model revealed two epidemic peaks (at, approximately, 12 and 28 days, respectively). While the spatial model fitted well with the observed cumulative number of infected farms, the non-spatial model did not (P<0.01). In addition, the spatial model: (a) indicated an early intra-county reproductive number R of approximately 87 (falling to <1 within 25 days), and an inter-county R<1; (b) predicted that, if animal movement restrictions had begun 3 days before/after the estimated initiation of such policy, cases would have decreased/increased by 23 or 26%, respectively. Spatial factors (such as inter-farm distance and coverage of vaccination campaigns, absent in non-spatial models) may explain why partially explicit spatial models describe epidemic spread more accurately than non-spatial models even at early epidemic phases. Integration of geo-coded data into mathematical models is recommended.

Emerging diseases and their impact on animal commerce: the Argentine lesson.

As a result of the Argentine experience with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in 2001, a need was postulated for the establishment of efficient supranational schemes for continuous surveillance of the interrelations between tropical extractives livestock systems and the prairies that are optimal for the feeding of livestock in the southern region of South America. FMD in Argentina and in other countries, new or re-emerging risks from avian influenza with potential risks for public health, the spongiform encephalopathies, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, and classical swine fever, among other animal diseases, have generated a strong reaction and evolution within the veterinary services of the country. These present lessons will influence decision-making within countries and should be accepted by the technical and scientific community. From the perspective of the official animal health sector and with the FMD eradication plan as a basis within the national territory, we have worked not only to achieve international recognition and credibility within animal health systems, but also to realize the formation of a regional block of countries that can be recognized internationally as an area with equivalent animal health status. We emphasize not only that this lesson is useful in FMD, but also that it is possible to apply the valuable conclusions reached for other emerging or re-emerging diseases.

Foot-and-mouth disease in tropical wildlife.

This review of foot-and-mouth disease in cloven-hoofed, free-living animals, describes the disease, the wide range of the hosts, the carrier state, and the interrelationship between disease in domestic livestock and wildlife. This information becomes even more crucial to the development of control strategies when linked to the process of pathogenesis and the epidemiology of the disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease in the Americas: epidemiology and ecologic changes affecting distribution.

Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD) was first recorded in South America (SA) circa 1870, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in Uruguay, and in southern Brazil as a result of the introduction of cattle from Europe during the early days of colonization. Livestock production to trade with neighboring countries was established in the La Plata Region, and the trade of livestock and products with Chile, northeastern and central western states of Brazil, to Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay spread FMD, which reached Venezuela and Colombia in the 1950s and finally Ecuador in 1961. The traditional forms of livestock husbandry influence the diffusion and maintenance of the FMD virus (FMDV) in different areas. Cattle production in SA depends mainly on a strong relation between cattle-calf operations and fattening operations in a complementary cycle, revealing the vulnerability and susceptibility of these areas to FMDV. Understanding the relationship between time-space behavior of the disease and the forms of production defines the FMD ecosystems, a key concept to elaborating the control/eradication strategies of national FMD eradication programs, which must be modified when trade opportunities between zones of differing sanitary status change. The role of other susceptible species besides bovines, including wildlife, in maintaining and spreading FMDV has been the subject of several studies, but in SA, bovines are so far considered to determine disease presentation. Buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) have been implicated in the spread of the disease between farms in at least one case in Brazil. Sheep are almost on a par with bovine in terms of number, especially in the Southern Cone, but their role in the maintenance of infection is not considered important, possibly owing to rearing practices. Camelid populations in the Andean region do not play an important role in the maintenance of FMD, because of short persistence of infection and low population densities in these species. The importance of wildlife is not clear, but it is accepted that animals are mostly affected as a spinoff during outbreaks in domestic species. Experimentally infected capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochoeris hydrochoeris) showed clinical signs and infected other susceptible species, but their role in the maintenance of infection in nature is so far not clear.

Identification of geographic factors associated with early spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether early analysis of spatial data may result in identification of variables associated with epidemic spread of foot and mouth disease. SAMPLE POPULATION: 37 farms with infected cattle (ie, case farms) reported within the first 6 days of the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. PROCEDURE: A georeferenced database was created and retrospective analysis was performed on case farm location in relation to farm density, cattle density, farm type (ie, beef vs dairy cattle production), road density, case farm distance to the nearest road, farm size, farm ownership, and day of infection. Mean or median results of 1 to 3 day versus 4 to 6 day spatial data were compared. Spatial-temporal associations were investigated by correlation analysis. RESULTS: Comparison of mean or median values between the first 3 days and days 4 to 6 of the epidemic and results of correlation analysis indicated a significant increase in road density, cattle density, and dairy cattle production and a significant decrease in farm size and case farm distance to the nearest road that developed over time. A route that linked most case farms by the shortest possible distance and also considered significantly associated variables was created. It included 86.1% of all case farms reported by 60 days into the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Epidemic direction can be assessed on the basis of road density and other spatial variables as early as 6 days into an epidemic. Epidemic control areas may be more effectively identified if local and regional georeferenced data are considered.

Critical response time (time available to implement effective measures for epidemic control): model building and evaluation.

The time available to implement successful control measures against epidemics was estimated. Critical response time (CRT), defined as the time interval within which the number of epidemic cases remains stationary (so that interventions implemented within CRT may be the most effective or least costly), was assessed during the early epidemic phase, when the number of cases grows linearly over time. The CRT was calculated from data of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic that occurred in Uruguay. Significant regional CRT differences (ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 days) were observed. The CRT may facilitate selection of control measures. For instance, a CRT equal to 3 days would support the selection of measures, such as stamping-out, implementable within 3 days, but rule out measures, such as post-outbreak vaccination, because intervention and immunity building require more than 3 days. Its use in rapidly disseminating diseases, such as FMD, may result in regionalized decision-making.

[Molecular characterization of aphthous fever virus isolated during the years 1993-1994 in Argentina]. / Caracterización molecular de cepas del virus de la fiebre aftosa aisladas durante los años 1993-1994 en la Argentina.

Nucleotide sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 structural protein have been used extensively as diagnostic and epidemiological tools for foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV). In this report we have applied this methodology to the analysis of the VP1 coding sequence from FMDV strains isolated in Argentina during 1993-1994. The results demonstrated that the field isolates were related to the vaccine strains used at that time. However the involvement of the vaccine virus appeared to be different for outbreaks caused by FMD viruses type O or C. These data provide a database essential for determining the origin of new epizootics.

Caracterización molecular de cepas del virus de la fiebre aftosa aisladas durante los años 1993-1994 en la Argentina / Molecular characterization of aphthous fever virus isolated during the years 1993-1994 in Argentina

Nucleotide sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 structural protein have been used extensively as diagnostic and epidemiological tools for foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV). In this report we have applied this methodology to the analysis of the VP1 coding sequence from FMDV strains isolated in Argentina during 1993-1994. The results demonstrated that the field isolates were related to the vaccine strains used at that time. However the involvement of the vaccine virus appeared to be different for outbreaks caused by FMD viruses type O or C. These data provide a database essential for determining the origin of new epizootics.(AU)

A quantitative assessment of the risk of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue and vesicular stomatitis by embryo transfer in cattle.

This paper addresses the risks involved when bovine embryos are moved internationally and, specifically, the possibilities of transmitting foot-and-mouth disease, bluetongue and vesicular stomatitis by embryos originating from an area in South America. The risk scenario pathway was divided into three phases for analysis. The first phase dealt with the potential for embryo contamination which depends on the disease situation in the exporting country and/or region, the health status of the herds and the donor cows from which the embryos are collected, and the pathogenetic characteristics of the specified disease agent. The second phase covers risk mitigation by use of internationally accepted standards for processing of embryos, and the third phase encompassed the risk reductions resulting from post-collection surveillance of the donors and donor herds, and also from testing of embryo-collection (flushing) fluids for the disease agent. Quantitative risk analysis showed that under the circumstances specified in the paper, the risk of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease and vesicular stomatitis by embryos would be likely to be less than 1 in 100 billion (10(-11.0)) and 1 in 100 million (10(-8.0)), respectively. The values for bluetongue were 1 in 30,000 (10(-4.2)) when embryos were collected in the vector season and 1 in 1 million (10(-6.0)) in the season with low vector activity. These risk values were influenced by the incidence of each disease in the area of origin and the ease with which clinical signs can be recognised. Competent embryo processing according to procedures recommended by the International Embryo Transfer Society were also of great importance. The analysis showed that the reasons for the low levels of risk of transmission differed for each of the three diseases. In the case of bluetongue, vector ecology was of major importance.

[Risk of transmission of foot and mouth disease by milk and its products: perspectives in South America]. / La leche y sus subproductos como riesgo de transmisión de la fiebre aftosa: perspectiva en América del Sur.

The authors highlight the importance of trade in dairy products in South America and throughout the world, and discuss the problem of restrictions engendered by foot and mouth disease (FMD) on exports to countries free from the disease. The epidemiological features of the disease and properties of the causal agent are described in relation to the dairy industry, with special reference to survival of the virus. Discussion then focuses on the risk of foot and mouth disease in relation to the effects the disease has on animal production before and after milking and the industrial processing of dairy products. Finally, the authors review progress achieved in FMD control and eradication programmes in Latin America, particularly in the southern sector where countries such as Chile and Uruguay are free from the disease, while in other countries (such as Argentina, Paraguay and parts of southern Brazil) no case has been reported for more than two years. It is concluded that dairy products can be exported from the region without creating a risk to animal health, provided that there has been proper risk analysis, according to the clearly defined regionalization criteria.

Infectivity assays of foot-and-mouth disease virus: contact transmission between cattle and buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in the early stages of infection.

No differences were observed between cattle and Indian buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in terms of temperature, viraemia or virus replication in the pharyngeal area, during the acute phase of foot-and-mouth disease. Like cattle, the Indian buffalo became infected and excreted virus before any clinical signs of foot-and-mouth disease developed. The disease was transmitted from cattle to buffalo and vice versa, during the acute stage of infection, as if the animals had been of the same species, presumably because of their close phylogenetic relationship. There were more tongue lesions in the cattle than in the buffalo. Foot lesions in the buffalo at first had a scaley appearance, but later became vesicular. Anti-virus infection associated antigen and neutralising antibodies were synthesised at the same time in both species and reached similar titres in the same period. Persistent infection in the buffalo during the first 35 days after infection was similar to that in the cattle.