The risk and mitigation of foot-and-mouth disease virus infection of pigs through consumption of contaminated feed.

Transboundary movement of animal feed and feed ingredients has been identified as a route for pathogen incursions. While imports of animals and animal-derived products are highly regulated for the purpose of infectious disease prevention, there has been less consideration of the viability of infectious agents in inanimate products, such as feed. This study investigated the ability of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) to remain infectious as a contaminant of commercial whole pig feed and select pig feed ingredients, and to establish the minimum infectious dose (MIDF ) required to cause foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in pigs that consumed contaminated feed. FMDV viability in vitro varied depending on virus strain, feed product, and storage temperature, with increased duration of infectivity in soybean meal compared to pelleted whole feed. Specifically, both strains of FMDV evaluated remained viable through to the end of the 37 day observation period in experimentally contaminated soybean meal stored at 4 or 20°C . The MIDF for pigs consuming contaminated feed varied across virus strains and exposure duration in the range of 106.2 to 107 TCID50 . The ability of FMDV to cause infection in exposed pigs was mitigated by pre-treatment of feed with two commercially available feed additives, based on either formaldehyde (SalCURB®) or lactic acid (Guardian™). Our findings demonstrate that FMDV may remain infectious in pig feed ingredients for durations compatible with transoceanic transport. Although the observed MIDF was relatively high, variations in feeding conditions and biophysical characteristics of different virus strains may alter the probability of infection. These findings may be used to parameterize modelling of the risk of FMDV incursions and to regulate feed importation to minimize the risk of inadvertent importation.

Assessment of the Risk of Foot and Mouth Disease among Beef Cattle at Slaughter from East African Production Systems.

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country.

Endemic persistence of a highly contagious pathogen: Foot-and-mouth disease in its wildlife host.

Extremely contagious pathogens are a global biosecurity threat because of their high burden of morbidity and mortality, as well as their capacity for fast-moving epidemics that are difficult to quell. Understanding the mechanisms enabling persistence of highly transmissible pathogens in host populations is thus a central problem in disease ecology. Through a combination of experimental and theoretical approaches, we investigated how highly contagious foot-and-mouth disease viruses persist in the African buffalo, which serves as their wildlife reservoir. We found that viral persistence through transmission among acutely infected hosts alone is unlikely. However, the inclusion of occasional transmission from persistently infected carriers reliably rescues the most infectious viral strain from fade-out. Additional mechanisms such as antigenic shift, loss of immunity, or spillover among host populations may be required for persistence of less transmissible strains.

Estimation of foot-and-mouth disease windborne transmission risk from USA beef feedlots.

Windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) requires specific epidemiological and meteorological conditions, thus modeling the risk of windborne spread involves integrating epidemiological and meteorological models. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential risk of windborne spread of FMD from an infected US feedlot using an integrated modeling approach, and to identify factors that determine this risk. To address this objective, we integrated a within-herd epidemiological model and an advanced atmospheric dispersion model, and calculated infection risk dependent on exposed herd size. A previously developed epidemiological model was used to simulate the spread of FMD through a typical U.S. feedlot, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model, which has been validated for FMD modeling, was used to model virus dispersion. Infection risk for exposed herds was calculated as a binomial probability accounting for dose and exposed herd size. We modeled risk of windborne spread from a typical 4000 head feedlot in the U.S. state of Iowa (IA), and a typical 48,000 head feedlot in the U.S. state of Kansas (KS) during winter and summer seasons. The risk of windborne spread of FMD varied based on weather/season conditions, estimated average viral shedding rate per head, size of infected herd, and size of exposed herd. In the baseline Kansas scenario (KS/103/W), the median of the maximum daily risk of infecting a 1000-head exposed herd ranged from 58.16 % at 1 km to 0.78 % at 10 km (Table 4). In the baseline Iowa scenario (IA/103/W), the median of the maximum daily risk of infecting a 1000-head exposed herd ranged from 21.78 % at 1 km to 0.05 % at 10 km (Table 4). The minimum control area recommended by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in an FMD outbreak is 10 km from the infected premise. Our results indicate that significant risk of windborne spread may extend beyond 10 km in certain situations. This is particularly a concern in areas where there are large feedlots in relatively close proximity, such as in southwestern Kansas. Our model may be useful as a research tool in the absence of an outbreak and may help direct surveillance and response efforts in the event of an outbreak.

Relatório de fitossanidade e sanidade animal: campanha agraria 2 0 | 2 1 / Plant and animal health report: agricultural campaign 2 0 | 2 1

O Ministério da Agricultura e Desenvolvimento Rural (MADER) tem como responsabilidades garantir a defesa Sanitária e Fitossanitária do país, entre outras através do controlo fronteiriço e interno, assegurando a prevenção de introdução e/ou disseminação de pragas, doenças exóticas, doenças animais, assegurar a fiscalização/inspecção e certificação na importação, exportação de produtos vegetais e animais bem como de agroquímicos.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in the domestic dog (Canis lupus familiaris), Iran.

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious viral disease, recognised to affect animals in the order Artiodactyla. The disease is rarely fatal in adult animals, however high mortality is associated with neonatal and juvenile infection. CASE PRESENTATION: Five puppies died after being fed lamb carcases, the lambs having died during an outbreak of FMD in Iran. Following a post-mortem examination, cardiac tissue from one of the dead puppies was subjected to virus isolation, antigen ELISA, real-time RT-PCR, sequencing and confocal microscopy to assess the presence and characteristics of any FMD virus. The virological and microscopic examination of the cardiac tissue provided evidence of FMD virus replication in the canine heart. CONCLUSIONS: The data generated in this study demonstrate for the first time that FMD virus can internalise and replicate in dogs and may represent an epidemiologically significant event in FMD transmission, highlighting the dangers of feeding diseased animal carcases to other species. The reporting of this finding may also focus attention on similar disease presentations in dogs in FMD endemic countries allowing a better understanding of the prevalence of such events.

Risk factors for the incursion, spread and persistence of the foot and mouth disease virus in Eastern Rwanda.

BACKGROUND: Identification of risk factors is crucial in Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control especially in endemic countries. In Rwanda, almost all outbreaks of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) have started in Eastern Rwanda. Identifying the risk factors in this area will support government control efforts. This study was carried out to identify and map different risk factors for the incursion, spread and persistence of FMDV in Eastern Rwanda. Questionnaires were administered during farm visits to establish risk factors for FMD outbreaks. Descriptive statistical measures were determined and odds ratios were calculated to determine the effects of risk factors on the occurrence of FMD. Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) was used to produce thematic maps on the proportion of putative risk factors for FMD per village. RESULTS: Based on farmers' perceptions, 85.31% (with p < 0.01) experienced more outbreaks during the major dry season, a finding consistent with other reports in other parts of the world. Univariate analysis revealed that mixed farming (OR = 1.501, p = 0.163, CI = 95%), and natural breeding method (OR = 1.626; p = 0.21, CI = 95%) were associated with the occurrence of FMD indicating that the two risk factors could be responsible for FMD outbreaks in the farms. The occurrence of FMD in the farms was found to be significantly associated with lack of vaccination of calves younger than 12 months in herds (OR = 0.707; p = 0.046, CI = 95%). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to describe risk factors for persistence of FMDV in livestock systems in Rwanda. However, further studies are required to understand the role of transboundary animal movements and genotypic profiles of circulating FMDV in farming systems in Rwanda.

Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems.

As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of mandatory traceability programs, previous epidemic models for U.S. cattle production systems heavily rely on contact rates estimated based on expert opinions and survey data. These models are often based on static networks and ignore the sequence of movement, possibly overestimating the epidemic sizes. In this research, we adapt and employ an agent-based model that simulates beef cattle production and transportation in southwest Kansas to analyze the between-premises transmission of a highly contagious disease, foot-and-mouth disease. First, we assess the impact of truck contamination on the disease transmission with the truck agent following an independent clean-infected-clean cycle. Second, we add an information-sharing functionality such that producers/packers can trace back and forward their trade records to inform their trade partners during outbreaks. Scenario analysis results show that including indirect contact routes between premises via truck movements can significantly increase the amplitude of disease spread, compared with equivalent scenarios that only consider animal movement. Mitigation strategies informed by information sharing can effectively mitigate epidemics, highlighting the benefit of promoting information sharing in the cattle industry. In addition, we identify salient characteristics that must be considered when designing an information-sharing strategy, including the number of days to trace back and forward in the trade records and the role of different cattle supply chain stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis results show that epidemic sizes are sensitive to variations in parameters of the contamination period for a truck or a loading/unloading area of premises, and indirect contact transmission probability and future studies can focus on a more accurate estimation of these parameters.

Quantifying the Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cattle via a Contaminated Environment.

Indirect transmission via a contaminated environment can occur for a number of pathogens, even those typically thought of as being directly transmitted, such as influenza virus, norovirus, bovine tuberculosis, or foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Indirect transmission facilitates spread from multiple sources beyond the infectious host, complicating the epidemiology and control of these diseases. This study carried out a series of transmission experiments to determine the dose-response relationship between environmental contamination and transmission of FMDV in cattle from measurements of viral shedding and rates of environmental contamination and survival. Seven out of ten indirect exposures resulted in successful transmission. The basic reproduction number for environmental transmission of FMDV in this experimental setting was estimated at 1.65, indicating that environmental transmission alone could sustain an outbreak. Importantly, detection of virus in the environment prior to the appearance of clinical signs in infected cattle and successful transmission from these environments highlights there is a risk of environmental transmission even before foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is clinically apparent in cattle. Estimated viral decay rates suggest that FMDV remained viable in this environment for up to 14 days, emphasizing the requirement for stringent biosecurity procedures following outbreaks of FMD and the design of control measures that reflect the biology of a pathogen.IMPORTANCE Effective control of a disease relies on comprehensive understanding of how transmission occurs, in order to design and apply effective control measures. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is primarily spread by direct contact between infected and naive individuals, although the high levels of virus shed by infected animals mean that virus can also be spread through contact with contaminated environments. Using a series of transmission experiments, we demonstrate that environmental transmission alone would be sufficient to sustain an outbreak. Key observations include that a risk of transmission exists before clinical signs of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are apparent in cattle and that survival of virus in the environment extends the transmission risk period. This study highlights the role a contaminated environment can play in the transmission of FMDV and presents approaches that can also be applied to study the transmission of other pathogens that are able to survive in the environment.

Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach.

Decisions surrounding the presence of infectious diseases are typically made in the face of considerable uncertainty. However, the development of models to guide these decisions has been substantially constrained by computational difficulty. This paper focuses on the case of finding the optimal level of surveillance against a highly infectious animal disease where time, space and randomness are fully considered. We apply the Sample Average Approximation approach to solve our problem, and to control model dimension, we propose the use of an infection tree model, in combination with sensible 'tree-pruning' and parallel processing techniques. Our proposed model and techniques are generally applicable to a number of disease types, but we demonstrate the approach by solving for optimal surveillance levels against foot-and-mouth disease using bulk milk testing as an active surveillance protocol, during an epidemic, among 42,279 farms, fully characterised by their location, livestock type and size, in the state of Victoria, Australia.

Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates.

Transmission network modelling to infer 'who infected whom' in infectious disease outbreaks is a highly active area of research. Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease have been a key focus of transmission network models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data. The aim of this study was to extend Lau's systematic Bayesian inference framework to incorporate additional parameters representing predominant species and numbers of animals held on a farm. Lau's Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was reformulated, verified and pseudo-validated on 100 simulated outbreaks populated with demographic data Japan and Australia. The modified model was then implemented on genomic and epidemiological data from the 2010 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan, and outputs compared to those from the SCOTTI model implemented in BEAST2. The modified model achieved improvements in overall accuracy when tested on the simulated outbreaks. When implemented on the actual outbreak data from Japan, infected farms that held predominantly pigs were estimated to have five times the transmissibility of infected cattle farms and be 49% less susceptible. The farm-level incubation period was 1 day shorter than the latent period, the timing of the seeding of the outbreak in Japan was inferred, as were key linkages between clusters and features of farms involved in widespread dissemination of this outbreak. To improve accessibility the modified model has been implemented as the R package 'BORIS' for use in future outbreaks.

Evaluation of the disinfectant concentration used on livestock facilities in Korea during dual outbreak of foot and mouth disease and high pathogenic avian influenza.

BACKGROUND: A nationwide outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Korea caused massive economic losses in 2010. Since then, the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency (QIA) has enhanced disinfection systems regarding livestock to prevent horizontal transmission of FMD and Avian influenza (AI). Although the amount of disinfectant used continues to increase, cases of FMD and AI have been occurring annually in Korea, except 2012 and 2013. OBJECTIVES: This study measured the concentration of the disinfectant to determine why it failed to remove the horizontal transmission despite increased disinfectant use. METHODS: Surveys were conducted from February to May 2017, collecting 348 samples from disinfection systems. The samples were analyzed using the Standards of Animal Health Products analysis methods from QIA. RESULTS: Twenty-three facilities used inappropriate or non-approved disinfectants. Nearly all sampled livestock farms and facilities-93.9%-did not properly adjust the disinfectant concentration. The percentage using low concentrations, or where no effective substance was detected, was 46.9%. Furthermore, 13 samples from the official disinfection station did not use effective disinfectant, and-among 72 samples from the disinfection station-88.89% were considered inappropriate concentration, according to the foot-and-mouth disease virus guidelines; considering the AIV guideline, 73.61% were inappropriate concentrations. Inappropriate concentration samples on automatic (90.00%) and semi-automatic (90.90%) disinfection systems showed no significant difference from manual methods (88.24%). Despite this study being conducted during the crisis level, most disinfectants were used inappropriately. CONCLUSIONS: This may partially explain why horizontal transmission of FMD and AI cannot be effectively prevented despite extensive disinfectant use.

Foot and mouth disease in a wide range of wild hosts: a potential constraint in disease control efforts worldwide particularly in disease-endemic settings.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a viral disease that affects predominantly cloven-footed animal species within the order Artiodactyla. The potential of the virus to transmit, maintain and circulate itself across a wide range of susceptible hosts, including both domestic and wild ungulates, remains a single major obstacle in an effective eradication of disease worldwide, particularly in disease-endemic settings. Hence, a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics is very much crucial for an efficient control of the disease, particularly at places or regions where wildlife and livestock rearing co-exists. Both OIE and FAO have jointly launched the FMD-control program as FMD-Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) in various disease-endemic developing countries. Nevertheless, the propensity of virus to inter- and intra-species transmission may be a possible constraint in disease control and, hence, its subsequent eradication in such countries. Other than this, cross-species transmission, among domestic and wild ungulates living in close proximities, can undermine the conservation efforts for endangered species. We reviewed and summarized the so-far available information about inter- and intra-species disease transmission, and its impact on wildlife populations to better comprehend disease epidemiology and substantiate efforts for eventual disease eradication across the globe, particularly in settings where the disease is endemic.

Multilevel model for airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease applied to Swedish livestock.

The foot-and-mouth disease is an ever-present hazard to the livestock industry due to the huge economic consequences following an outbreak that necessitates culling of possibly infected animals in vast numbers. The disease is highly contagious and previous epizootics have shown that it spreads by many routes. One such route is airborne transmission, which has been investigated in this study by means of a detailed multilevel model that includes all scales of an outbreak. Local spread within an infected farm is described by a stochastic compartment model while the spread between farms is quantified by atmospheric dispersion simulations using a network representation of the set of farms. The model was applied to the Swedish livestock industry and the risk for an epizootic outbreak in Sweden was estimated using the basic reproduction number of each individual livestock-holding farm as the endpoint metric. The study was based on comprehensive official data sets for both the current livestock holdings and regional meteorological conditions. Three species of farm animals are susceptible to the disease and are present in large numbers: cattle, pigs and sheep. These species are all included in this study using their individual responses and consequences to the disease. It was concluded that some parts of southern Sweden are indeed preconditioned to harbor an airborne epizootic, while the sparse farm population of the north renders such events unlikely to occur there. The distribution of the basic reproduction number spans over several orders of magnitudes with low risk of disease spread from the majority of the farms while some farms may act as very strong disease transmitters. The results may serve as basic data in the planning of the national preparedness for this type of events.

The first full genome characterization of an Iranian foot and mouth disease virus.

High transmissibility of FMDV and drop in productivity following infection, make FMD an important economically disease of livestock. According to the endemic nature of the disease in Iran, vaccines have been routinely applied, but not able to prevent frequent outbreaks. Circulation of different FMDV types in Iran along with unrestricted animal movements complicates epidemiological situations. The relatively short length of VP1 does not provide high resolution molecular epidemiological data, therefore FMDV full genome sequencing has been employed. Outbreaks of FMD occurred in Qom province, Iran during 2017. A 8190 nucleotide-long FMDV complete genome was sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis clustered the virus into Asia 1 serotype. Complete genome analysis revealed a high level of homology of the virus to Asia 1 viruses previously detected in Turkey, India, Israel, and Pakistan. The data suggest that Asia 1/Shimi/2017 probably originated from India, have circulating in Iran since the last couple of years and reached Turkey in 2013. The results highlight the role of Iran in westward spreading of FMDV among South-central Asia, hinting the urgent need for an effective vaccine against Asia 1 type FMDV and also applying restriction rules on animal movements.

The impact of changing farm structure on foot-and-mouth disease spread and control: A simulation study.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects ruminants and pigs. Countries with large exports of livestock products are highly vulnerable to economic damage following an FMD incursion. The faster disease spread is controlled, the lower the economic damage. During the past decades, the structure of livestock production has dramatically changed. To maintain the relevance of contingency plans, it is important to understand the effects of changes in herd structure on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In this study, we compare the spread and control of FMD based on 2006/2007 and 2018 livestock data. Spread of FMD in Denmark was simulated using the DTU-DADS model, applying different control measures. The number of cattle, swine and sheep/goat herds reduced from about 50,000 in total in 2006/2007 to about 33,000 in 2018. During this period, the average number of outgoing animal movements and the exports of swine and swine products increased by about 35% and 22%, respectively. This coincided with an overall increase in herd size of 14%. Using the EU and national control measures (Basic: 3 days standstill, depopulation of detected herds followed by cleaning and disinfection and establishment of control zones, where tracing, surveillance and contact restrictions are implemented), we found that the simulated epidemics in 2018 would be about 50% shorter in duration, affect about 50% fewer herds but cause more economic damage, compared to epidemics using 2006/2007 data. When 2006/2007 data were used, Basic + pre-emptive depopulation (Depop) overall was the optimal control strategy. When 2018 data were used, this was the case only when epidemics were initiated in cattle herds, whereas when epidemics were initiated in sow or sheep/goats herds, basic performed as well as Depop. The results demonstrate that regular assessment of measures to control the spread of infectious diseases is necessary for contingency planning.

Environmental persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus applied to endemic regions.

The consequences of foot-and-mouth disease impact regional economies and food security through animal mortality and morbidity, trade restrictions and burdens to veterinary infrastructure. Despite efforts to control the disease, some regions, mostly in warmer climates, persistently report disease outbreaks. Consequently, it is necessary to understand how environmental factors influence transmission, of this economically devastating disease. Extensive research covers basic aetiology and transmission potential of livestock and livestock products for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), with a subset evaluating environmental survival. However, this subset, completed in the early to mid-20th century in Northern Europe and the United States, is not easily generalized to today's endemic locations. This review uncovered 20 studies, to assess current knowledge and analyse the effects of environmental variables on FMDV survival, using a Cox proportional hazards (Coxph) model. However, the dataset is limited, for example pH was included in three studies and only five studies reported both relative humidity (RH) and temperature. After dropping pH from the analysis, our results suggest that temperature alone does not describe FMDV survival; instead, interactions between RH and temperature have broader impacts across various conditions. For instance, FMDV is expected to survive longer during the wet season (survival at day 50 is ~90% at 16°C and 86% RH) versus the dry season (survival at day 50 approaches 0% at 16°C and 37.5% RH) or comparatively in the UK versus the Southwestern United States. Additionally, survival on vegetation topped 70% on day 75 when conditions exceeded 20°C with high RH (86%), drastically higher than the survival on inanimate surfaces at the same temperature and RH (~0%). This is important in tropical regions, where high temperatures can persist throughout the year, but RH varies. Therefore, parameter estimates, for disease modelling and control in endemic areas, require environmental survival data from a wider range of conditions.

Horizontal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus O/JPN/2010 among different animal species by direct contact.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and easily transmitted among species of cloven-hoofed animals. To investigate the transmission of FMD virus (FMDV) among different animal species, experimental infections using the O/JPN/2010 strain were performed in cows, goats and pigs. One cow or two goats/pigs were housed with a different species of inoculated animals, and clinical observations, virus shedding and antibody responses were analysed daily. Whilst all cows and goats were infected horizontally by contact with inoculated pigs, transmission from cows to goats/pigs and from goats to cows/pigs was not observed in all in-contact animals. In particular, no pigs were infected horizontally by contact with inoculated goats. Comparison with our previous study on experimental infections among animals of the same species indicates that horizontal transmission occurred more easily between animals of the same species than between those of the different species. These findings will be useful for establishing and performing species-specific countermeasures in farms and regions where multiple species of animals coexist in potential future outbreaks.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is contagious, acute viral disease of all cloven-hoofed animals. The disease is endemic in Ethiopia and causes multiple outbreak every year all over the country. While it is important to understand to the transmission dynamics of FMD outbreaks for appropriate control intervention, no such study has been done in Ethiopia. Thus, the aims of this study were to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of FMD and simulate FMD transmission dynamics of FMD in Amhara region of Ethiopia. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated from age stratified sero-prevalence data through maximum likelihood estimation. A stochastic SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) compartmental FMD model was formulated and parameterized using literature and age stratified sero-prevalence field data. The R0 of FMD in the region was estimated to be 1.27 (95%CI: 1.20-1.34). The simulation of the SIR model showed only 24% (95% CI: 16-32%) of the infection introduced in the region caused major outbreaks. Out of the major outbreaks 25% of them tend to persist in the region. Major outbreaks cause 38.9% (95% CI: 38.8-39.1%) morbidity and 0.0019% (95% CI: 0.0018-0.0020%) mortality in cattle and the outbreaks stayed for an average of 690 days (95%CI: 655-727). Validation of the model prediction with farmer's field experience indicated a fairly similar result especially for the predicted morbidity caused by outbreaks. This study revealed low transmission of FMD within the Amhara region cattle population indicating not very high vaccination coverage is needed, if control through vaccination is envisaged at regional level. However, owing to several simplified assumptions made during the modeling, this conclusion should be taken cautiously.

FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE IN EXPERIMENTALLY INFECTED MULE DEER (ODOCOILEUS HEMIONUS).

The only known outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in wildlife in the US occurred in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in California in 1924-25. There is little recorded information on the pathogenesis and epidemiology of the disease in deer in that outbreak. In this experimental study, we compared the susceptibility of mule deer to FMD virus (FMDV) serotype O to that of cattle (Bos taurus). We also determined the potential for intra- and interspecies transmission of FMDV serotype O in mule deer and cattle, and assessed conventional laboratory tests in their ability to detect FMDV in mule deer. Two mule deer and one steer were each infected by intraepithelial tongue inoculation with 10,000 bovine tongue infective doses of FMDV, strain O1 Manisa. The inoculated steer and deer were kept in the same room with contact animals of both species. Exposed contact animals were moved to rooms with unexposed animals after becoming febrile. All mule deer (n=14) and cattle (n=6) developed clinical signs and lesions consistent with FMDV infection. Deer had a high prevalence of myocarditis and high mortality. Virus was transmitted between mule deer, from cattle to mule deer, and from mule deer to cattle. Virus and antibodies against nonstructural FMDV proteins in mule deer and cattle were detected by conventional laboratory tests. Virus shedding was detected by PCR and virus isolation up to 9 d postexposure in deer.