The risk of Colles' fracture is associated with the collagen I alpha1 Sp1 polymorphism and ultrasound transmission velocity in the calcaneus only in heavier postmenopausal women.

To compare the ability of the bone mineral density (BMD) at the distal forearm, collagen I alpha 1 (COLIA1) polymorphism, and ultrasound stiffness to identify individuals with increased risk of wrist fracture, we studied 183 postmenopausal Czech women with a wrist fracture and 178 postmenopausal controls, ages 45-70 years. The genotypes "Ss" and "ss" were significantly overrepresented among fracture cases. The BMD measurements at the femoral neck, total femur, and distal forearm as well as ultrasound stiffness of the heel, broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and speed of sound (SOS) were significantly lower in the fracture cohort. BMD of the distal forearm was the main determinant of susceptibility to the wrist fracture. Weight, the COLIA1 genotype, and ultrasound SOS further strengthened the predictive value of BMD. However, we found interaction between weight and both the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism and ultrasound parameters. Presence of the "s" allele as well as low SOS acted as significant predictors of wrist fracture only in heavier women, (> or =62 kg) but not in women with a body weight of less than 62 kg. In heavier women, both the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism and ultrasound parameters acted as independent markers that contributed to BMD to enhance fracture prediction. However, the COLIA1 enabled a higher specificity (specificity 72.4%, sensitivity 44.2%), whereas SOS enabled a higher sensitivity (sensitivity 73.9%, specificity, 45.7%). We conclude that BMD at total forearm, the COLIA1 polymorphism, and ultrasound SOS are independent predictors of wrist fracture in postmenopausal women. The effect of the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism and SOS on wrist fracture risk is more pronounced in patients with a higher body weight.

Genetic determination of Colles' fracture and differential bone mass in women with and without Colles' fracture.

Osteoporotic fractures (OFs) are a major public health problem. Direct evidence of the importance and, particularly, the magnitude of genetic determination of OF per se is essentially nonexistent. Colles' fractures (CFs) are a common type of OF. In a metropolitan white female population in the midwestern United States, we found significant genetic determination of CF. The prevalence (K) of CF is, respectively, 11.8% (+/- SE 0.7%) in 2471 proband women aged 65.55 years (0.21), 4.4% (0.3%) in 3803 sisters of the probands, and 14.6% (0.7%) in their mothers. The recurrence risk (K0), the probability that a woman will suffer CF if her mother has suffered CF is 0.155 (0.017). The recurrence risk (Ks), the probability that a sister of a proband woman will suffer CF given that her proband sister has suffered CF is 0.084 (0.012). The relative risk lambda (the ratio of the recurrence risk to K), which measures the degree of genetic determination of complex diseases such as CF, is 1.312 (0.145; lambda 0) for a woman with an affected mother and 1.885 (0.276; lambda s) for a woman with an affected sister. A lambda-value significantly greater than 1.0 indicates genetic determination of CF. The terms lambda 0 and lambda s are related to the genetic variances of CF. These parameters translate into a significant and moderately high heritability (0.254 [0.118]) for CF. These parameters were estimated by a maximum likelihood method that we developed, which provides a general tool for characterizing genetic determination of complex diseases. In addition, we found that women without CF had significantly higher bone mass (adjusted for important covariates such as age, weight, etc.) than women with CF.