Heteroscedasticity effects as component to future stock market predictions using RNN-based models.

Heteroscedasticity effects are useful for forecasting future stock return volatility. Stock volatility forecasting provides business insight into the stock market, making it valuable information for investors and traders. Predicting stock volatility is a crucial task and challenging. This study proposes a hybrid model that predicts future stock volatility values by considering the heteroscedasticity element of the stock price. The proposed model is a combination of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and a well-known Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) algorithm Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). This proposed model is referred to as GARCH-LSTM model. The proposed model is expected to improve prediction accuracy by considering heteroscedasticity elements. First, the GARCH model is employed to estimate the model parameters. After that, the ARCH effect test is used to test the residuals obtained from the model. Any untrained heteroscedasticity element must be found using this step. The hypothesis of the ARCH test yielded a p-value less than 0.05 indicating there is valuable information remaining in the residual, known as heteroscedasticity element. Next, the dataset with heteroscedasticity is then modelled using an LSTM-based RNN algorithm. Experimental results revealed that hybrid GARCH-LSTM had the lowest MAE (7.961), RMSE (10.466), MAPE (0.516) and HMAE (0.005) values compared with a single LSTM. The accuracy of forecasting was also significantly improved by 15% and 13% with hybrid GARCH-LSTM in comparison to single LSTMs. Furthermore, the results reveal that hybrid GARCH-LSTM fully exploits the heteroscedasticity element, which is not captured by the GARCH model estimation, outperforming GARCH models on their own. This finding from this study confirmed that hybrid GARCH-LSTM models are effective forecasting tools for predicting stock price movements. In addition, the proposed model can assist investors in making informed decisions regarding stock prices since it is capable of closely predicting and imitating the observed pattern and trend of KLSE stock prices.

Northern Nevada Public Health: Utilizing the Public Health Workforce Calculator and Workforce Capacity Self-assessment Tools to Develop a Framework for Workforce Investment.

CONTEXT: Health departments nationally are critically understaffed and lack infrastructure support. By examining current staffing and allocations through a Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) lens at the Northern Nevada Public Health (NNPH), there is an opportunity to make a strong case for greater investment if current dedicated full-time equivalents are inadequate and to guide which investments in public health workforce are prioritized. OBJECTIVE: To assess the use of the Public Health Workforce Calculator (calculator) and other tools to identify and prioritize FPHS workforce needs in a field application. DESIGN: Field application of the calculator in conjunction with the use of FPHS workforce capacity self-assessment tools. SETTING: NNPH. PARTICIPANTS: NNPH and Public Health Foundation (PHF). INTERVENTION: From June 2022 through April 2023, PHF collaborated with NNPH, serving Washoe County, to provide expertise and assistance as NNPH undertook an assessment of its workforce needs based upon the FPHS model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of the calculator output with FPHS workforce capacity self-assessment tools. RESULTS: The calculator and the FPHS capacity self-assessment process yielded complementary FPHS workforce capacity gap data. The use of a structured and transparent process, coupled with additional tools that included prioritizing needs, provided a viable and sustainable process for public health workforce investment planning. NNPH successfully utilized the results to bolster a supplemental funding request and a state public health appropriation. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the calculator and an FPHS workforce capacity self-assessment in a facilitated and structured process such as that used by NNPH to identify staffing priorities may hold promise as an approach that could be used to support decision-making and justification for infrastructure resources when funding for public health increases in the future.

The Shortfalls of Mental Health Compartment Models: A Call to Improve Mental Health Investment Cases in Developing Countries.

OBJECTIVES: There are irregularities in investment cases generated by the Mental Health Compartment Model. We discuss these irregularities and highlight the costing techniques that may be introduced to improve mental health investment cases. METHODS: This analysis uses data from the World Bank, the World Health Organization Mental Health Compartment Model, the United Nations Development Program, the Kenya Ministry of Health, and Statistics from the Kenyan National Commission of Human Rights. RESULTS: We demonstrate that the Mental Health Compartment Model produces irrelevant outcomes that are not helpful for clinical settings. The model inflated the productivity gains generated from mental health investment. In some cases, the model underestimated the economic costs of mental health. Such limitation renders the investment cases poor in providing valuable intervention points from the perspectives of both the users and the providers. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for further calibration and validation of the investment case outcomes. The current estimated results cannot be used to guide service provision, research, and mental health programming comprehensively.

¿Cómo desarrollar una investigación clínica de calidad? / How to develop a quality clinical research?

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Un eslabon perdido en la cadena asistencial: los servicios de Atenicón farmacéutica / No disponible

No disponible

Desarrollo del indicador población estandarizada equivalente para el control del gasto farmacéutico ambulatorio / A standardized amount indicator by equivalent patient to control outpatient pharmaceutical expenditure, Spain

Fundamentos: El gasto farmacéutico representa un elevado porcentaje del gasto sanitario total en la mayoría de los países desarrollados, por lo que es importante utilizar herramientas que permitan hacer un uso eficiente. El objetivo del presente trabajo es construir un indicador de gasto farmacéutico estandarizado con el fin de disponer de una herramienta objetiva de evaluación y control del gasto más precisa que el indicador utilizado hasta el momento en la Comunitat Valenciana. Métodos: Para la construcción de este indicador se introdujo el concepto de "paciente equivalente" en la estandarización de la población, lo que permitió discriminar pacientes con perfiles de consumo diferentes. Dicha estandarización tiene en cuenta una serie de variables sociodemográficas que ofrecen una estandarización de los pacientes más ajustada que la que ofrecía el modelo utilizado hasta 2011, sustituido ahora por este nuevo indicador: el anterior indicador de importe estandarizado solo consideraba como característica diferenciadora del gasto la condición de farmacia (prestación farmaceútica sin o con aportación del 40%). Las variables consideradas en el nuevo proceso de estandarización fueron, la edad, el género, la condición de prestación farmaceútica y la cobertura internacional. Resultados: Después de aplicar el método de estandarización de la población se obtuvieron 160 grupos de pacientes con consumos diferentes a los que se les adjudicó unos pesos de 0,10 a 4,39 pacientes equivalentes. Conclusiones: El indicador obtenido permite comparar poblaciones homogéneas a través del proceso de su estandarización, lo que facilita la evaluación y control del gasto farmacéutico ambulatorio considerando los patrones de consumo de cada estructura poblacional. El indicador se puede aplicar a cualquier nivel organizativo, desde departamentos de salud a facultativos, por lo que ofrece información necesaria para el establecimiento de incentivos encaminados a promover una prescripción más eficiente(AU)

Background: The outpatient pharmaceutical expenditure in developed countries represents a huge percentage of the total health budget, because of that, it is necessary to use tools aimed to control and guarantee an efficient use of these resources. Improving the current construction of the indicator of pharmaceutical expenditure in order to have a more adjusted tool of pharmaceutical expenditure control. Methods: We introduce the concept of "equivalent patient" in the standardization of outpatient pharmaceutical expenditure, considering in its design several socio demographic variables in order to supersede the previous model which just considered the "Co-payment status" for adjusting the outpatient pharmaceutical expenditure. We considered variables as age, sex, co-payment status and nationality to elaborate the concept of equivalent patient. Results: By applying the standardization method we obtained 160 groups of consumption with weights from 0,10 to 4,39 equivalent patients. Conclusions: We obtained a tool capable of improving the construction of Pharmaceutical Expenditure Indicators, which are essential for the design of measures aimed to stimulate the rational use of drugs. In a micro level of analysis, the new indicator is useful to establish economic incentives aimed to encourage good performance from physicians in the prescription fiel(AU)

Taxonomía práctica de la «desinversión sanitaria» en lo que no añade valor, para hacer sostenible el Sistema Nacional de Salud / Practical taxonomy of health care containment/disinvestment in non-value-added care in order to have a sustainable NHS

El entorno de severa contención de costes obligará a buscar de forma activa la sostenibilidad interna en los sistemas sanitarios; la desinversión en todos los servicios que no añaden valor es una de las herramientas a utilizar. En este artículo se aporta una taxonomía práctica para identificar los cuidados inefectivos, inseguros, innecesarios, inútiles, inclementes e insensatos, y se analizan las implicaciones en relación a pacientes ordenados por su gravedad y en función a las ganancias de salud esperables por la intervención. Finalmente se analiza la factibilidad de las políticas de desinversión en relación al ámbito macro-meso o micro de la gestión(AU)

The environment of severe cost containment has led to the active search of "internal sustainability" of health systems; the disinvestment in all non-value added services is one of the tools used. This article provides the taxonomy to identify ineffective, unsafe, unnecessary, unsuccessful, unkind and unwise care practices and discusses their implications in relation to patients ordered according to their severity, as well as the expected health gains of the intervention. Finally, the feasibility of those disinvestment policies is analysed according to macro-,middle, and micro-management scenarios(AU)

Dinâmica do sistema produtivo da saúde: inovação e complexo econômico-industrial / Dynamics of production system health: innovation and economic-industrial complex

O livro apresenta a dinâmica dos investimentos no complexo produtivo da saúde, no mundo e no Brasil, analisando seus diferentes subsistemas: de base química e biotecnológica; de base mecânica, eletrônica e de materiais; e de serviços de saúde. Ao final, traz uma síntese analítica e discute políticas para o desenvolvimento do CEIS. Este é formado por indústrias farmacêuticas (de fármacos, medicamentos, vacinas, hemoderivados e reagentes para diagnósticos), industrias de equipamentos médicos e insumos, e setores de prestação de serviços (hospitais, ambulatórios e serviços de diagnósticos e tratamentos). Além dos segmentos industriais e de serviços, o CEIS reúne também o Estado, instituições de ciência e tecnologia, agências de regulação, a sociedade civil organizada e a população.

Implementação financeira e o impacto do mutirão de cirurgias de varizes, após a criação do Fundo de Ações Estratégias e Compensação (FAEC) / Financial implementation and the impact of vascular surgery task force, after the creation of the Strategic Actions and Compensation Fund (FAEC)

CONTEXTO: Apesar de reconhecer que o número apresentado pelo mutirão de cirurgias eletivas não refletisse inteiramente a realidade, foi significativa a implementação financeira do Ministério da Saúde do Brasil, bem como o aumento de cirurgias de varizes, após criação do Fundo de Ações Estratégias e Compensação (FAEC). OBJETIVO: Avaliar os resultados da aplicação do investimento financeiro do Ministério da Saúde no mutirão de cirurgias de varizes. MÉTODOS:Foi realizado um estudo transversal de natureza retrospectiva, utilizando informações do banco de dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Foram incluídas na pesquisa todas autorizações de internação hospitalar das cirurgias de varizes de membros inferiores pagas pelo Ministério da Saúde do Brasil, no período de janeiro de 1998 a dezembro de 2004. RESULTADOS: Em 1998, antes da implementação do mutirão de cirurgias eletivas foram realizadas 23.531 cirurgias de varizes e investidos R$ 5.819.033,27. Após a criação do FAEC, foram realizadas 457.026 cirurgias de varizes de membros inferiores, no período de 1999 a 2004, e foram investidos R$ 187.760.196,81 com média de R$ 31.293.336,13 por ano. CONCLUSÃO: O investimento feito pelo Ministério da Saúde durante o programa de mutirões de cirurgias eletivas pelo FAEC, proporcionou aumento significativo do número de cirurgias de varizes em todo Brasil.

BACKGROUND: In spite of the fact that the number of surgeries presented by the elective surgery task force did not entirely reflect the reality, it is possible to declare that the financial implementation of the Brazilian Ministry of Health has been significative, as well as the increasing number of varicose vein surgeries, especially after the creation of the Strategic Actions and Compensation Fund (FAEC). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the application of financial investment in the Ministry of Health campaign for varicose vein surgery. METHODS: A transversal study of retrospective nature has been conducted, using information available at the Data Processing Department of the National Healthcare System database (DATASUS). All the authorization of hospital internment from the inferior member varicose vein surgeries, financed by the Brazilian Ministry of Health from January 1998 to December 2004, have been included in the research. RESULTS: In 1998, before the implementation of the elective surgery task force, 23,531 varicose vein surgeries have been performed, and R$ 5,819,033.27 invested. After the creation of the FAEC, 457,026 inferior member varicose vein surgeries have been performed from 1999 to 2004, and R$ 187,760,196.81 were invested with an average of R$ 31,293,336.13 per year. CONCLUSION: Thus, it is possible to conclude that the bigger investment from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, represented by the implementation of the elective surgery task forces by the FAEC, has been responsible for increasing the number of varicose vein surgeries all around Brazil.

Evaluación de un programa de intervención en residencias geriátricas para reducir la frecuentación hospitalaria / Evaluation of an intervention program in Nursing Homes to reduce hospital attendance

Objetivos. Este estudio describe los resultados de un programa de intervención asistencial en residencias geriátricas (RG) y su repercusión en las visitas a urgencias, ingresos hospitalarios urgentes y gasto farmacéutico. Material y métodos. Intervención comunitaria no aleatorizada en RG con un grupo control. Se implanta progresivamente desde 2007 a 2009 en 10 RG (857 plazas) que participaron voluntariamente. Formaron el grupo control 14 RG (1.200 plazas), las que declinaron participar y las que no estaban asignadas a nuestros centros de salud. La intervención consistió en la valoración geriátrica integral y visitas de seguimiento por personal especializado, revisión y adecuación del tratamiento farmacológico, gestión de casos y formación del personal. Resultados. En las RG intervenidas la frecuentación a urgencias disminuyó pasando de1.165‰ (IC 95% 1.100-1.240) en 2006 a 674‰ (IC 95% 620-730) en 2009, mientras que en las no intervenidas se incrementó de 1.071‰ (IC 95% 1.020-1.130) a 1246‰ (IC 95% 1.190-1.310). Los ingresos hospitalarios urgentes se redujeron de 48,4% (IC 95% 45-52) en 2006 a 32,1% (IC 95% 29-35) en 2009, mientras que en el grupo control se incrementó de 43,5% (IC 95% 41-46) a 55,8% (IC 95% 53-59). Se redujo un 9,0% el gasto de farmacia en las RG intervenidas frente a un incremento del 11,9% en las RG control. Conclusiones. El programa de intervención ha demostrado ser efectivo para reducir la frecuentación hospitalaria y de urgencias en los pacientes institucionalizados y permite racionalizar los costes de farmacia(AU)

Objectives. This study describes the outcomes of an intervention program in Nursing Homes and their effects on emergency room attendance, hospital admissions, and pharmaceutical expenditure. Material and methods. This involved non-randomised community intervention in Nursing Homes with a control group. The program was implemented gradually from 2007 to 2009 in 10 Nursing Homes (857 beds) which participated voluntarily. The control group consisted of 14 Nursing homes (1,200 beds), which refused to participate or were not assigned to our Primary Care centres. Intervention consisted of comprehensive geriatric assessment and follow-up visits by trained personnel, review and adjustment of drug treatment, case management and staff training. Results. In the Nursing Homes where the program was carried out, emergency room attendance decreased from 1165‰ (95%CI 1100-1240]) in 2006 to 674‰ (95%CI 620-730) in 2009, while in the control group it increased from 1071 (95%CI 1020-1130) to 1246‰ (95%CI 1190-1310). The hospital admissions also decreased from 48.4% (95%CI 45-52) in 2006 to 32.1% (95%CI 29-35) in 2009, while in the control group increased from 43.5% (95%CI 41-46) to 55.8% (95%CI 53-59). There was also a 9% reduction in pharmacy cost compared with an increase of 11.9% in the control group. Conclusions. The intervention has proved effective at reducing hospital admissions and emergency room attendance in institutionalised patients, thereby streamlining pharmacy costs(AU)

Agências estatais e engenheiros na produçäo das políticas de saneamento no Rio de Janeiro - Brasil / State agencies and engineers in the production of sanitation policies in Rio de Janeiro - Brazil

Analisa as políticas públicas de saneamento básico no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, de meados dos anos 70 até 1994. Utilizando informaçöes sobre os investimentos na construçäo de sistemas, descreve a política, discutindo as principais explicaçöes utilizadas na literatura das ciências sociais sobre o Estado e suas políticas. Parte de informaçöes de uma pesquisa em andamento sobre a comunidade dos engenheiros para criar uma explicaçäo alternativa para a dinâmica da política, levando em conta a rede de relaçäo entre os atores, assim como a dimensäo espacial de suas estratégias. Atençäo especial é dada aos padröes de intermediaçäo de interesses, enfocando tanto as agências estatais, como os contratantes de obras públicas.(AU)