Historical Mortality Dynamics on the Baja California Peninsula : Marriage, Mining Booms, Migration, and Infectious Disease.

Historical demographic research shows that the factors influencing mortality risk are labile across time and space. This is particularly true for datasets that span societal transitions. Here, we seek to understand how marriage, migration, and the local economy influenced mortality dynamics in a rapidly changing environment characterized by high in-migration and male-biased sex ratios. Mortality records were extracted from a compendium of historical vital records for the Baja California peninsula (Mexico). Our sample consists of 1,201 mortality records spanning AD 1835-1900. Findings from Cox proportional hazard models indicate that (1) marriage was associated with a protective effect for both sexes; (2) residing in a mining town was associated with higher mortality for men, but not women; (3) migration was associated with decreased mortality risk for women, but not men; and (4) the risk of mortality increased in the face of infectious disease, but decreased over time. Despite the early initiation of reproduction for women, marriage had a protective effect, likely because marriage linked women to resources. Although mining boomtowns were associated with elevated risk factors generally, only men experienced greater mortality risk, likely due to dangerous working conditions that women did not experience. Last, female, but not male, migrants experienced greater longevity, possibly because exposure to harsh labor conditions eroded the protective effect of selection bias for men. Together, these results shed light on an understudied historical population and broaden our understanding of demographic dynamics in preindustrial settings.

Extensive pedigrees reveal the social organization of a Neolithic community.

Social anthropology and ethnographic studies have described kinship systems and networks of contact and exchange in extant populations1-4. However, for prehistoric societies, these systems can be studied only indirectly from biological and cultural remains. Stable isotope data, sex and age at death can provide insights into the demographic structure of a burial community and identify local versus non-local childhood signatures, archaeogenetic data can reconstruct the biological relationships between individuals, which enables the reconstruction of pedigrees, and combined evidence informs on kinship practices and residence patterns in prehistoric societies. Here we report ancient DNA, strontium isotope and contextual data from more than 100 individuals from the site Gurgy 'les Noisats' (France), dated to the western European Neolithic around 4850-4500 BC. We find that this burial community was genetically connected by two main pedigrees, spanning seven generations, that were patrilocal and patrilineal, with evidence for female exogamy and exchange with genetically close neighbouring groups. The microdemographic structure of individuals linked and unlinked to the pedigrees reveals additional information about the social structure, living conditions and site occupation. The absence of half-siblings and the high number of adult full siblings suggest that there were stable health conditions and a supportive social network, facilitating high fertility and low mortality5. Age-structure differences and strontium isotope results by generation indicate that the site was used for just a few decades, providing new insights into shifting sedentary farming practices during the European Neolithic.

La temporalidad de la transición epidemiológica en Chile, 1862-2018 / The temporality of the epidemiological transition in Chile, 1862-2018

Este artículo analiza la naturaleza y temporalidad de la transición epidemiológica (TE) en Chile, prestando especial atención a la composición de las causas de muerte en dicho país desde 1862 hasta el 2018. La evidencia aportada en este artículo permite establecer que la TE efectivamente ocurrió en Chile bajo el modelo “contemporáneo-tardío”, a lo que podríamos agregar el adjetivo “acelerado”. Nuestros resultados destacan lo reciente de la superación de la primera fase de la TE chilena en comparación con la mayor parte de los países desarrollados, debido al protagonismo que mantuvieron las enfermedades infecciosas como principal causa de muerte hasta mediados del siglo XX, así como lo acelerado de dicho proceso (el corto período de tiempo entre los años 1940s y los 1960s). La superación de la primera fase de la TE fue posible principalmente por la “importación” súbita de avances tecnológicos internacionales (sulfamidas y antibióticos en particular), en un periodo en que aún no se observaban mejoras nutricionales substantivas en la población, ni tampoco avances importantes en la provisión de servicios de agua potable o alcantarillado. (AU)

This article analyzes the nature and temporality of the epidemiological transition (ET) in Chile, paying special attention to the composition of the causes of death in that country from 1862 to 2018. The evidence provided in this article allows us to establish that the ET effectively occurred in Chile under the “contemporary-late” model, to which we could add the adjective “accelerated”. Our results highlight the recentness of the overcoming of the first phase of Chilean TE in comparison to most developed countries, due to the prominence of infectious diseases as the main cause of death until the middle of the 20th century and the acceleration of this process (the short time period between the 1940s and the 1960s). Overcoming the first phase of ET was mainly possible due to the sudden “importation” of international technological advances (sulfonamides and antibiotics in particular) during a period in which there were still no substantial nutritional improvements in the population or major advances in the supply of drinking water or sewage services. (AU)

Initial treatment and survival in Danish patients diagnosed with non-small-cell lung cancer (2005-2015): SCAN-LEAF study.

Aim: To describe initial treatment patterns and survival of patients diagnosed with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Denmark, before immune checkpoint inhibitor and later-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor use. Patients & methods: Adults diagnosed with incident NSCLC (2005-2015; follow-up: 2016). Initial treatments and overall survival (OS) are reported. Results: 31,939 NSCLC patients (51.6% stage IV) were included. Increasing use of curative radiotherapy/chemoradiation for stage I, II/IIIA and IIIB NSCLC coincided with improved 2-year OS. Systemic anticancer therapy use increased for patients with stage IV non-squamous NSCLC (53.0-60.6%) but not squamous NSCLC (44.9-47.3%). 1-year OS improved in patients with stage IV non-squamous NSCLC (23-31%) but not squamous NSCLC (22-25%). Conclusion: Trends indicated improved OS as treatments evolved between 2005 and 2015, but the effect was limited to 1-year OS in stage IV disease.

Real-world data on survival improvement in patients with multiple myeloma treated at a single institution over a 45-year period.

The prognostic landscape of multiple myeloma (MM) has evolved significantly over the last few decades. There are, however, few data measuring such improvement in real-world patients. This study aimed to investigate trends in survival improvement over 45 years, and the associated clinical factors, in an unselected population of patients with MM. Between 1970 and 2015, 1 161 MM patients were included. Patients were classified into three calendar periods (1970-1984, 1985-1999, and 2000-2015), according to the treatment received; polychemotherapy, autologous stem cell transplantation, and novel drugs respectively. We analysed relative survival (RS) to accurately evaluate MM-related death rates after excluding the mortality expected in the general population. RS at five years increased from 27% in 1970-1984 to 38% and 56% in the next two calendar periods respectively. The improvement to survival was greater in the younger population, but it was also observed in elderly patients and those with poor performance status and more advanced disease. Although myeloma is still a non-curable disease, encouraging results have been observed in the last decades. Progress is expected to continue with the use of new generations of anti-myeloma drugs, and will, hopefully, be documented in real-world patients by the appropriate population-based studies.

Incidence, mortality and survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma before and after asbestos in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare but fatal cancer, which is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Reliable information about the incidence of MPM prior the influence of asbestos is lacking. The nationwide regional incidence trends for MPM remain poorly characterized. We use nationwide MPM data for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) to assess incidence, mortality and survival trends for MPM in these countries. METHODS: We use the NORDCAN database for the analyses: incidence data were available from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1958 in SE, through 2016. Survival data were available from 1967 through 2016. World standard population was used in age standardization. RESULTS: The lowest incidence that we recorded for MPM was 0.02/100,000 for NO women and 0.05/100,000 for FI men in 1953-57, marking the incidence before the influence of asbestos. The highest rate of 1.9/100,000 was recorded for DK in 1997. Female incidence was much lower than male incidence. In each country, the male incidence trend for MPM culminated, first in SE around 1990. The regional incidence trends matched with earlier asbestos-related industrial activity, shipbuilding in FI and SE, cement manufacturing and shipbuilding in DK and seafaring in NO. Relative 1-year survival increased from about 20 to 50% but 5-year survival remained at or below 10%. CONCLUSION: In the Nordic countries, the male incidence trends for MPM climaxed and started to decrease, indicating that the prevention of exposure was beneficial. Survival in MPM has improved for both sexes but long-term survival remains dismal.

Age-period-cohort analysis of stroke mortality attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China and Japan.

Stroke is a principal cause of mortality in China and Japan. High systolic blood pressure (SBP) was considered a chief risk factor for stroke mortality. Herein, we evaluated temporal trends of high SBP-attributable stroke mortality in China and Japan between 1990 and 2017. Data on stroke mortality were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017). Using the age-period-cohort method, we computed overall net drifts, local drifts, longitudinal age curves, and cohort/period rate ratios (RRs) for high SBP-attributable stroke mortality. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) displayed decreasing trends for high SBP-attributable stroke mortality. The annual net drift values were - 1.4% and - 3.5% in Chinese men and women versus - 3.1% and - 4.9% in Japanese men and women. The local drift values in both countries were < 0 among all age groups but were lower in women than in men. The longitudinal age curves showed a greater high SBP-attributable stroke mortality in men than in women across all age groups. Similar decreasing patterns were shown in the period and cohort RRs in both sexes with women having a quicker decline than men. In China and Japan, the ASMRs, as well as the period and cohort RRs of high SBP-attributable stroke mortality, decreased between 1990 and 2017 in both sexes and across all age groups. Yet, the prevalence of high SBP remained worrisome in both countries. Thus, SBP control should be encouraged to prevent stroke mortality.

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on mortality of the three major gynecologic cancers in China from 1990 to 2019: Cervical, ovarian and uterine cancer.

BACKGROUND: Gynecologic cancers seriously threaten women's life and health. This study aims to assess the long-term trends of mortality from the three major gynecologic cancers in China and to examine the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects behind them during the period 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The mortality data of cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancer in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and were analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. RESULTS: It was found that the net drift for cervical cancer mortality was -0.19% (95% CI, -0.46% to 0.08%) per year, for ovarian cancer was 0.76% (95% CI, 0.57% to 0.95%) per year, and for uterine cancer was -3.09% (95% CI, -3.44% to -2.76%) per year from 1990 to 2019. During this period, while cervical cancer remained the most common cause of death among gynecologic cancers among Chinese women, ovarian cancer replaced uterine cancer as the second leading cause of death in gynecologic cancers after about 2005. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were found for the mortality trends of all three major gynecologic cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The secular trends of mortality from the three major gynecologic cancers in China and their underlying age, period, and cohort effects are likely to reflect the progress of diagnosis and treatment, rapid socio-economic transitions, and the accompanying lifestyle and behavior changes. More priorities of further epidemiology studies and efforts on the prevention and control should be given to three major gynecologic cancers.

Examining the trade-offs between human fertility and longevity over three centuries using crowdsourced genealogy data.

The evolution theory of ageing predicts that reproduction comes with long-term costs of survival. However, empirical studies in human species report mixed findings of the relationship between fertility and longevity, which varies by populations, time periods, and individual characteristics. One explanation underscores that changes in survival conditions over historical periods can moderate the negative effect of human fertility on longevity. This study investigates the fertility-longevity relationship in Europe during a period of rapid modernisation (seventeenth to twentieth centuries) and emphasises the dynamics across generations. Using a crowdsourced genealogy dataset from the FamiLinx project, our sample consists of 81,924 women and 103,642 men born between 1601 and 1910 across 16 European countries. Results from multilevel analyses show that higher fertility has a significantly negative effect on longevity. For both women and men, the negative effects are stronger among the older cohorts and have reduced over time. Moreover, we find similar trends in the dynamic associations between fertility and longevity across four geographical regions in Europe. Findings and limitations of this study call for further investigations into the historical dynamics of multiple mechanisms behind the human evolution of ageing.

How Does Diet Influence Our Lives? Evaluating the Relationship between Isotopic Signatures and Mortality Patterns in Italian Roman Imperial and Medieval Periods.

The present research investigates the relationship between dietary habits and mortality patterns in the Roman Imperial and Medieval periods. The reconstructions of population dynamics and subsistence strategies provide a fascinating source of information for understanding our history. This is particularly true given that the changes in social, economic, political, and religious aspects related to the transition from the Roman period to the Middle Ages have been widely discussed. We analyzed the isotopic and mortality patterns of 616 individuals from 18 archeological sites (the Medieval Latium sites of Colonna, Santa Severa, Allumiere, Cencelle, and 14 Medieval and Imperial funerary contexts from Rome) to compile a survivorship analysis. A semi-parametric approach was applied, suggesting variations in mortality patterns between sexes in the Roman period. Nitrogen isotopic signatures influenced mortality in both periods, showing a quadratic and a linear effect for Roman Imperial and Medieval populations, respectively. No influence of carbon isotopic signatures has been detected for Roman Imperial populations. Conversely, increased mortality risk for rising carbon isotopic values was observed in Medieval samples.

Estimation of delay-adjusted all-cause excess mortality in the USA: March-December 2020.

We estimate the delay-adjusted all-cause excess deaths across 53 US jurisdictions. Using provisional data collected from September through December 2020, we first identify a common mean reporting delay of 2.8 weeks, whereas four jurisdictions have prolonged reporting delays compared to the others: Connecticut (mean 5.8 weeks), North Carolina (mean 10.4 weeks), Puerto Rico (mean 4.7 weeks) and West Virginia (mean 5.5 weeks). After adjusting for reporting delays, we estimate the percent change in all-cause excess mortality from March to December 2020 with range from 0.2 to 3.6 in Hawaii to 58.4 to 62.4 in New York City. Comparing the March-December with September-December 2020 periods, the highest increases in excess mortality are observed in South Dakota (36.9-54.0), North Dakota (33.9-50.7) and Missouri (27.8-33.9). Our findings indicate that analysis of provisional data requires caution in interpreting the death counts in recent weeks, while one needs also to account for heterogeneity in reporting delays of excess deaths among US jurisdictions.

Epidemiology of cutaneous melanoma and keratinocyte cancer in white populations 1943-2036.

OBJECTIVES: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) and keratinocyte cancer (KC) cause considerable morbidity and mortality. We analysed long-term trends of CM and KC in different white populations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age-standardised (European Standard Population 2013) incidence and mortality rates (ASIR, ASMR) of CM were extracted from cancer registries in Denmark, New Zealand and the US SEER-Database. ASIRs of KC were sourced from registries of the German federal states Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein, and from Scotland. Age-period-cohort models were used to project melanoma incidence trends. RESULTS: In Denmark between 1943 and 2016, melanoma ASIR increased from 1.1 to 46.5 in males, and from 1.0 to 48.5 in females, estimated to reach 60.0 and 73.1 in males and females by 2036. Melanoma mortality in Denmark (1951-2016) increased from 1.4 to 6.7 (males) and 1.2 to 3.7 (females). In New Zealand between 1948 and 2016, ASIR increased from 2.7 to 81.0 (males) and from 3.8 to 54.7 (females), slight declines are estimated by 2036 for both genders. Melanoma mortality increased six-fold in New Zealand males between 1950 and 2016; smaller increases were observed in females. We observed three- to four-fold increases in melanoma incidence in US whites, predicted to rise to 56.1 and 36.2 in males and females until 2036. Melanoma mortality also increased among US whites between 1970 and 2017, female melanoma mortality remained stable. Similar trends are shown for KC. CONCLUSIONS: In white populations, incidence of CM and KC significantly increased. CM incidence continues to rise in the short term but is predicted to decline in future.

European trends in breast cancer mortality, 1980-2017 and predictions to 2025.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer mortality in European women has been falling for three decades. We analysed trends in mortality from breast cancer in Europe over the period 1980-2017 and predicted number of deaths and rates to 2025. METHODS: We extracted death certification data for breast cancer in women for 35 European countries, between 1980 and 2017, from the World Health Organisation database. We computed the age-standardised (world standard population) mortality rates per 100,000 person-years, by country and calendar year. We obtained also predictions for 2025 using a joinpoint regression model and calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1994-2025. RESULTS: The mortality rate declined from 15.0 in 2012 to 14.4 in 2017 per 100,000 women (-3.9%) for the European Union (EU)-27. This fall was greater in the EU-14 (-5.2%), whereas rates rose in the transitional countries during this period by 1.9%. Mortality rate predictions across Europe are expected to reach relatively uniform levels in 2025. During the studied period, favourable trends in mortality emerged in most countries, with the greatest decrease in Denmark, whereas Poland and Romania showed an upward trend. The largest predicted decrease in breast cancer mortality was estimated for the United Kingdom (12.2/100,000 women in 2025), leading to the estimated avoidance of 150,000 breast cancer deaths over the period 1994-2025 and 470,000 in the EU-27. CONCLUSIONS: Favourable trends in breast cancer mortality were observed in most European countries, and they will continue to fall in the coming years. Less favourable patterns were still observed among the transitional countries than other European areas.

Counting the dead and making the dead count: configuring data and accountability.

This article examines the relation between counting, counts and accountability. It does so by comparing the responses of the British government to deaths associated with Covid-19 in 2020 to its responses to deaths associated with the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Similarities and dissimilarities between the cases regarding what counted as data, what data were taken to count, what data counted for, and how data were counted provide the basis for considering how the bounds of democratic accountability are constituted. Based on these two cases, the article sets out the metaphors of leaks and cascades as ways of characterising the data practices whereby counts, counting and accountability get configured. By situating deaths associated with Covid-19 against previous experience with deaths from war, the article also proposes how claims to truth and ignorance might figure in any future official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic.

Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919.

County-Level Variation in Hepatitis C Virus Mortality and Trends in the United States, 2005-2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since 2013, the national hepatitis C virus (HCV) death rate has steadily declined, but this decline has not been quantified or described on a local level. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We estimated county-level HCV death rates and assessed trends in HCV mortality from 2005 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017. We used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and used a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized HCV death rates from 2005 through 2017 for 3,115 U.S. counties. Additionally, we estimated county-level, age-standardized rates for persons <40 and 40+ years of age. We used log-linear regression models to estimate the average annual percent change in HCV mortality during periods of interest and compared county-level trends with national trends. Nationally, the age-adjusted HCV death rate peaked in 2013 at 5.20 HCV deaths per 100,000 persons (95% credible interval [CI], 5.12, 5.26) before decreasing to 4.34 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 4.28, 4.41) in 2017 (average annual percent change = -4.69; 95% CI, -5.01, -4.33). County-level rates revealed heterogeneity in HCV mortality (2017 median rate = 3.6; interdecile range, 2.19, 6.77), with the highest rates being concentrated in the West, Southwest, Appalachia, and northern Florida. Between 2013 and 2017, HCV mortality decreased in 80.0% (n = 2,274) of all U.S. counties with a reliable trend estimate, with 25.8% (n = 803) of all counties experiencing a decrease larger than the national decline. CONCLUSIONS: Although many counties have experienced a shift in HCV mortality trends since 2013, the magnitude and composition of that shift have varied by place. These data provide a better understanding of geographic differences in HCV mortality and can be used by local jurisdictions to evaluate HCV mortality in their areas relative to surrounding areas and the nation.

Estudio comparativo de las crisis de mortalidad en Montevideo y Ciudad de Buenos Aires y su relación con las epidemias por enfermedades infecciosas (1850-1919)

El artículo presenta un estudio comparativo del desempeño de la mortalidad en Buenos Aires y Montevideo, capitales de los países que se adelantan en el descenso de la mortalidad en América Latina. Se analiza el comportamiento característico de la mortalidad en las fases más tempranas de la transición epidemiológica entre 1850 y 1919. Para medir la intensidad de las crisis de mortalidad se utilizó una metodología propia de la demografía histórica, el índice de Dupâquier. En los años de registros extraordinarios se realiza un análisis de causas de muerte. A su vez, se revisan brevemente las instituciones sanitarias y las medidas que las autoridades adoptaron frente a las crisis. Nuestros resultados identifican similitudes y diferencias. Ambas ciudades fueron golpeadas por sucesivas crisis de mortalidad, y en este período se observa el inicio de su espaciamiento y reducción, propio de las primeras etapas de su descenso. No obstante, la tendencia al descenso de las crisis de mortalidad presenta particularidades: por un lado una situación más ventajosa para Montevideo ­menos años de mortalidad extraordinaria hasta 1890­, y por otro, la paulatina equiparación de Buenos Aires desde la última década del siglo XIX, así como un menor peso relativo de las defunciones por enfermedades transmisibles. (AU)

Trends in mortality from external causes in the Republic of Seychelles between 1989 and 2018.

Data on injury-related mortality are scarce in the African region. Mortality from external causes in the Seychelles was assessed, where all deaths are medically certified and the population is regularly enumerated. The four fields for underlying causes of death recorded were reviewed in the national vital statistics register. The age-standardised mortality rates were estimated (per 100,000 person-years) from external causes in 1989-1998, 1999-2008, and 2009-2018. Mortality rates per 100,000 person-years from external causes were 4-5 times higher among males than females, and decreased among males over the three 10-year periods (127.5, 101.4, 97.1) but not among females (26.9, 23.1, 26.9). The contribution of external causes to total mortality did not change markedly over time (males 11.6%, females 4.3% in 1989-2018). Apart from external deaths from undetermined causes (males 14.6, females 2.4) and "other unintentional injuries" (males 14.1, females 8.0), the leading external causes of death in 2009-2018 were drowning (25.9), road traffic injuries (18.0) and suicide (10.4) among males; and road traffic injuries (4.6), drowning (3.4) and poisoning (2.6) among females. Mortality from broad categories of external causes did not change consistently over time but rates of road traffic injuries increased among males. External causes contributed approximately 1 in 10 deaths among males and 1 in 20 among females, with no marked change in cause-specific rates over time, except for road traffic injuries. These findings emphasise the need for programs and policies in various sectors to address this large, but mostly avoidable health burden.

Decreased Mortality of falciparum Malaria in Anemic Prisoners of War?

Modern clinical trials have suggested that anemia protects against malaria mortality. Military records of the Second World War in Asia were examined to see if there was support for this hypothesis. When relatively well-nourished Imperial Japanese Navy sailors captured on Nauru (n = 799) were imprisoned on the Fauro Islands, 26% died from falciparum malaria. Similarly treated but very malnourished colocated Imperial Army soldiers experienced low stable malaria mortality. One-fifth of previously healthy Australian Army soldiers (n = 252) retreating from New Britain died largely because of malaria in April 1942. Malnourished prisoners of war, who were as a group very anemic, both Australian Army soldiers in Thailand and Japanese Army soldiers in Papua New Guinea, had high malaria rates but very low (< 3%) mortality rates. Malaria immunity does not adequately explain this dichotomy, suggesting that severe nutritional deprivation may be protective against malaria mortality possibly because of iron-deficiency anemia.