Multimorbidity patterns and the risk of falls among older adults: a community-based study in China.

BACKGROUND: Due to the high prevalence of multimorbidity and realistic health service demands for fall prevention, there is growing interest in the association between multimorbidity and falls. Our study aimed to identify multimorbidity patterns among Chinese older adults and explore the association between multimorbidity patterns and falls. METHODS: Data from 4,579 Chinese community-dwelling older adults was included in this analysis. Information regarding falls and 10 chronic conditions was collected. An exploratory factor analysis was performed to determine multimorbidity patterns. Regression models were fitted to explore the associations of individual chronic disease or multimorbidity patterns with falls. RESULTS: Among 4,579 participants, 368 (8.0%) were defined as fallers, including 92 (2.0%) frequent fallers, and multimorbidity affected 2,503 (54.7%) participants. Older adults with multimorbidity were more likely to be fallers [odds ratio (OR) = 1.3, P = 0.02] and frequent fallers (OR = 1.7, P = 0.04). Three multimorbidity patterns were identified (i.e., cardiovascular-metabolic diseases, psycho-cognitive diseases and organic diseases), and the associations between psycho-cognitive diseases/organic diseases and prevalent falls or frequent falls were found to be significant. CONCLUSIONS: The psycho-cognitive disease pattern and organic disease pattern are significantly associated with falls. Therefore, more attention should be paid to patients with psycho-cognitive diseases and timely, targeted diagnostic and treatment services should be provided in fall prevention.

An investigation on the prevalence and patterns of multi-morbidity among a group of slum-dwelling older women of Kolkata, India.

BACKGROUND: Multi-morbidity is a pervasive and growing issue worldwide. The prevalence of multi-morbidity varies across different populations and settings, but it is particularly common among older adults. It poses substantial physical, psychological, and socio-economic burdens on individuals, caregivers and healthcare systems. In this context, the present study aims to provide an insight on the prevalence and degree of multi-morbidity; and also, on the relationship between level of multi-morbidity and morbid conditions among a group of slum-dwelling older women. METHODS: This community based cross-sectional study was conducted in the slum areas of urban Kolkata, West Bengal, India. It includes total 500 older women, aged 60 years or above. Pre-tested schedules on so-demographic and morbidity profile have canvassed to obtain the information by door-to-door survey. To determine the relationship between the level of multi-morbidity and morbid conditions, correspondence analysis has performed. RESULTS: The study revealed three most prevalent morbid conditions- back and/or joint pain, dental caries/cavity and hypertension. The overall prevalence of multi-morbidity was 95.8% in this group of older women. It was highly over-represented by the oldest-old age group (80 years and above). Majority were found to suffer from five simultaneous morbid conditions that accounted for 15.2% of the total respondents. All of the oldest-old women of this study reported to suffer from more than two medical conditions simultaneously. Three distinct groups were formed based on the inter-relationship between level of multi-morbidity and morbid conditions. The group 1 and 2 represents only 27.8% and 18% of the total sample. Whereas, group 3 comprises the highest level of morbidities (≥ 6) and 52.8% of total sample, and strongly related with general debilities, cardiac problems, asthma/COPD, gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal problems, neurological disorders, hypothyroidism and oral health issues. CONCLUSION: The findings confirmed the assertion that multi-morbidity in slum living older adults is a problem with high prevalence and complexity. This study proposes an easily replicable approach of understanding complex interaction of morbidities that can help further in identifying the healthcare needs of older adults to provide them with healthy and more productive life expectancy.

The Longitudinal Relationship between Edentulism and the Progress of Multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the longitudinal relationship between edentulism, nutritional intake, and the progress of multimorbidity among older Americans. METHODS: We used data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2018), a longitudinal survey of older Americans that has collected data biennially since 1992. Edentulism was assessed in 2006 while nutritional intake was assessed in 2013. Multimorbidity was indicated by five self-reported chronic conditions: diabetes, heart conditions, lung diseases, cancer, and stroke. Individuals with two or more conditions at baseline were excluded from the analysis. Nutritional intake was calculated by summing 10 nutrients (protein, vitamins C, D, B12 and E, calcium, zinc, polyunsaturated fatty acids, folate, and ß-carotene). Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to examine the nutritional pathway between edentulism (2006) and the increase in multimorbidity from 2006 to 2018. RESULTS: The number of individuals included in the analysis was 3463. The incidence of multimorbidity between 2006 and 2018 was 24.07%, while the percentage of edentate participants in 2006 was 16.42%. The mean total nutrition in 2013 was 4.50 (4.43, 4.55). The SEM analysis showed that edentulism was negatively associated with nutritional intake {estimate -0.15 (95%CI: -0.30, -0.01)}. A negative association was found between total nutrition and multimorbidity {estimate -0.008 (95%CI: -0.01, -0.002)}. Age, wealth, and smoking were included in the analysis and had statistically significant associations with multimorbidity. CONCLUSION: The analysis demonstrated a longitudinal association between edentulism, nutritional intake, and the progress of multimorbidity.

The association between weight change patterns and obesity-related complex multimorbidity: evidence from NHANES.

Objective: Obesity is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which has been the leading cause of death nowadays. The aim of this study is to examine the association between total changes in body mass index (BMI) across adulthood and the risk of obesity-related complex multimorbidity in elderly, characterizing the capacity of BMI waves in predicting major chronic diseases. Methods: In this retrospective study, 15,520 participants were analyzed from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 and 2018. BMI was categorized as obesity (≥30.0 kg/m²), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m²), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m²), and underweight (<18.5 kg/m²). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CIs) for the relationship between BMI change patterns and major health outcomes included hypertension, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes, and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of BMI were evaluated. Results: In comparison with participants who remained non-obese, those who are stable obese showed the highest risks of developing at least one chronic disease in later life, with odds ratios of 2.76 (95% CI: 2.20 to 3.45) from age 25 years to 10 years before baseline, 2.90 (2.28 to 3.68) from age 25 years to baseline, and 2.49 (2.11 to 2.95) in the 10-year period before baseline. Moving from non-obese to obese weight-change pattern in all periods (from age 25 years to 10 years before baseline: OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.57 to 2.11; from age 25 years to baseline: OR = 1.87; 95% CI, 1.59 to 2.19; from 10 years before baseline to baseline: OR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.08) and moving from obese to non-obese, the 10-year period before baseline (OR = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.39 to 2.57) was associated with increased risk of chronic diseases. Midlife obesity status can explain the 8.6% risk of occurrence of the chronic diseases in elderly. Conclusions: Maintaining a stable healthy weight and losing weight in early adulthood and midlife are important for better life quality during the aging process. More effective strategies and policies to reduce the prevalence of obesity are needed.

Physical activity dynamically moderates the impact of multimorbidity on the trajectory of healthy aging over sixteen years.

BACKGROUND: Research examining the healthy aging trajectory of retired older adults with multimorbidity is limited, leaving uncertainties regarding the optimal physical activity (PA) intensity and frequency necessary to sustain healthy aging during retirement. METHODS: Our study investigated the moderating effects of PA on the healthy aging trajectories of retired older adults living with multimorbidity in the United States (US). We utilized data from 1,238 retired individuals aged 50 to 102 who contributed 11,142 observations over 16 years from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We employed mixed effects modeling to assess the impact of various classes of multimorbidity on this group and examine how different PA, PA intensities, and PA frequencies influence the disability, physical, and cognitive functioning domains of healthy aging. RESULTS: The results reveal that while outcomes differed significantly, retired older adults in the US attained healthy aging at baseline. However, their ability to maintain healthy aging declined over time, with multimorbidity, especially musculoskeletal and neurological conditions, accelerating this decline. Fortunately, PA, especially light to moderate intensities, is associated with improving healthy aging and moderating the impact of multimorbidity on the disability and cognitive functioning domains of healthy aging. However, the specific moderating effects of PA depend on its frequency, intensity, and chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The significant variability in healthy aging attainment among retired older adults underlies the need to consider these differences when addressing healthy aging issues in the US. Accounting for these variations would aid in evaluating the potential impact of future interventions and contribute to achieving health equity. Fortunately, our dynamic findings facilitate this objective by identifying specific frequencies and intensities of PA tailored to different aspects of multimorbidity and healthy aging. This highlights PA, especially light-to-moderate intensity, as an essential, cost-effective, and amenable strategy for alleviating the impact of multimorbidity on healthy aging.

Multimorbidity and its Associated Factors in Korean Shift Workers: Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is a crucial factor that influences premature death rates, poor health, depression, quality of life, and use of health care. Approximately one-fifth of the global workforce is involved in shift work, which is associated with increased risk for several chronic diseases and multimorbidity. About 12% to 14% of wage workers in Korea are shift workers. However, the prevalence of multimorbidity and its associated factors in Korean shift workers are rarely reported. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess multimorbidity prevalence, examine the factors associated with multimorbidity, and identify multimorbidity patterns among shift workers in Korea. METHODS: This study is a population-based cross-sectional study using Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2016 to 2020. The study included 1704 (weighted n=2,697,228) Korean shift workers aged 19 years and older. Multimorbidity was defined as participants having 2 or more chronic diseases. Demographic and job-related variables, including regular work status, average working hours per week, and shift work type, as well as health behaviors, including BMI, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity, and sleep duration, were included in the analysis. A survey-corrected logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors influencing multimorbidity among the workers, and multimorbidity patterns were identified with a network analysis. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 13.7% (302/1704). Logistic regression indicated that age, income, regular work, and obesity were significant factors influencing multimorbidity. Network analysis results revealed that chronic diseases clustered into three groups: (1) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke), (2) musculoskeletal multimorbidity (arthritis and osteoporosis), and (3) unclassified diseases (depression, chronic liver disease, thyroid disease, asthma, cancer, and chronic kidney disease). CONCLUSIONS: The findings revealed that several socioeconomic and behavioral factors were associated with multimorbidity among shift workers, indicating the need for policy development related to work schedule modification. Further organization-level screening and intervention programs are needed to prevent and manage multimorbidity among shift workers. We also recommend longitudinal studies to confirm the effects of job-related factors and health behaviors on multimorbidity among shift workers in the future.

What is the burden of multimorbidity and the factors associated with its occurrence in elderly Brazilians?

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in elderly people and its association with sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, and anthropometry. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using data from the National Health Survey, 2019. A total of 22,728 elderly individuals from all 27 Brazilian states were randomly selected. Poisson regression models with robust variance were employed, and a significance level of 5% was adopted. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 51.6% (95% CI: 50.4-52.7), with the highest estimates observed in the South and Southeast. Multimorbidity was associated with being female (aPR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.27-1.39), being 80 years old or older (aPR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.05-1.19), having low education (aPR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.25), past cigarette use (aPR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.11-1.21), insufficient physical activity (aPR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.06-1.21), and screen use for 3 hours or more per day (aPR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.08-1.18). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity affects more than half of the elderly population in Brazil and is associated with social, demographic, and behavioral factors.

Trajectories of chronic multimorbidity patterns in older patients: MTOP study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is associated with negative results and poses difficulties in clinical management. New methodological approaches are emerging based on the hypothesis that chronic conditions are non-randomly associated forming multimorbidity patterns. However, there are few longitudinal studies of these patterns, which could allow for better preventive strategies and healthcare planning. The objective of the MTOP (Multimorbidity Trajectories in Older Patients) study is to identify patterns of chronic multimorbidity in a cohort of older patients and their progression and trajectories in the previous 10 years. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study with a cohort of 3988 patients aged > 65 was conducted, including suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients in the reference area of Parc Taulí University Hospital. Real-world data on socio-demographic and diagnostic variables were retrieved. Multimorbidity patterns of chronic conditions were identified with fuzzy c-means cluster analysis. Trajectories of each patient were established along three time points (baseline, 5 years before, 10 years before). Descriptive statistics were performed together with a stratification by sex and age group. RESULTS: 3988 patients aged over 65 were included (58.9% females). Patients with ≥ 2 chronic conditions changed from 73.6 to 98.3% in the 10-year range of the study. Six clusters of chronic multimorbidity were identified 10 years before baseline, whereas five clusters were identified at both 5 years before and at baseline. Three clusters were consistently identified in all time points (Metabolic and vascular disease, Musculoskeletal and chronic pain syndrome, Unspecific); three clusters were only present at the earliest time point (Male-predominant diseases, Minor conditions and sensory impairment, Lipid metabolism disorders) and two clusters emerged 5 years before baseline and remained (Heart diseases and Neurocognitive). Sex and age stratification showed different distribution in cluster prevalence and trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of older patients, we were able to identify multimorbidity patterns of chronic conditions and describe their individual trajectories in the previous 10 years. Our results suggest that taking these trajectories into consideration might improve decisions in clinical management and healthcare planning. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05717309.

Regular source of primary care and health services utilisation among Brazilian elderly with mental-physical multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: In ageing populations, multimorbidity is a complex challenge to health systems, especially when the individuals have both mental and physical morbidities. Although a regular source of primary care (RSPC) is associated with better health outcomes, its relation with health service utilisation in elderly patients with mental-physical multimorbidity (MP-MM) is scarce. OBJECTIVE: This study explored the relations among health service utilisation, presence of RSPC and MP-MM among elderly Brazilians. METHODS: A national cross-sectional study performed with data from national representative samples from the Brazilian National Health Research (PNS, in Portuguese; Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde) carried out in 2013 with 11,177 elderly Brazilian people. MP-MM was defined as the presence of two or more morbidities, including at least one mental morbidity, and was evaluated using a list of 16 physical and mental morbidities. The RSPC was analysed by the presence of regular font of care in primary care and health service utilisation according to the demand for health services ≤ 15 days, medical consultation ≤ 12 months, and hospitalisation ≤ 1 year. Frequency description of variables and bivariate association were performed using Stata v.15.2 software. RESULTS: The majority of individuals was female (56.4%), and their mean age was 69.8 years. The observed prevalence of MP-MM was 12.2%. Individuals with MP-MM had higher utilisation of health services when compared to those without MP-MM. RSPC was present at 36.5% and was higher in women (37.8% vs. 34.9%). There was a lower occurrence of hospitalisation ≤ 1 year among MP-MM individuals with RSPC and without a private plan of health. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that RSPC can be an important component of care in elderly individuals with MP-MM because it was associated with lower occurrence of hospitalisation, mainly in those that have not a private plan of health. Longitudinal studies are necessary to confirm these findings.

Trends in the Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults With Hypertension From 1999-2000 Through 2017-2020.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of many chronic conditions has increased among US adults. Many adults with hypertension have other chronic conditions. METHODS: We estimated changes in the age-adjusted prevalence of multiple (≥3) chronic conditions, not including hypertension, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, from 1999-2000 to 2017-2020, among US adults with (n = 24,851) and without (n = 24,337 hypertension. Hypertension included systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥130 mm Hg, diastolic BP ≥80 mm Hg, or antihypertensive medication use. We studied 14 chronic conditions: arthritis, asthma, cancer, coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, heart failure, lung disease, obesity, and stroke. RESULTS: From 1999-2000 to 2017-2020, the age-adjusted mean number of chronic conditions increased more among US adults with vs. without hypertension (2.2 to 2.8 vs. 1.7 to 2.0; P-interaction <0.001). Also, the age-adjusted prevalence of multiple chronic conditions increased from 39.0% to 52.0% among US adults with hypertension and from 26.0% to 30.0% among US adults without hypertension (P-interaction = 0.022). In 2017-2020, after age, gender, and race/ethnicity adjustment, US adults with hypertension were 1.94 (95% confidence interval: 1.72-2.18) times as likely to have multiple chronic conditions compared to those without hypertension. In 2017-2020, dyslipidemia, obesity, and arthritis were the most common 3 co-occurring chronic conditions among US adults with and without hypertension (age-adjusted prevalence 16.5% and 3.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In 2017-2020, more than half of US adults with hypertension had ≥3 additional chronic conditions, a substantial increase from 20 years ago.

Assessing the relationship between multimorbidity, NCD configurations, frailty phenotypes, and mortality risk in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Older adults are increasingly susceptible to prolonged illness, multiple chronic diseases, and disabilities, which can lead to the coexistence of multimorbidity and frailty. Multimorbidity may result in various noncommunicable disease (NCD) patterns or configurations that could be associated with frailty and death. Mortality risk may vary depending on the presence of specific chronic diseases configurations or frailty. METHODS: The aim was to examine the impact of NCD configurations on mortality risk among older adults with distinct frailty phenotypes. The population was analyzed from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study Cohort (CRELES). A total of 2,662 adults aged 60 or older were included and followed for 5 years. Exploratory factor analysis and various clustering techniques were utilized to identify NCD configurations. The frequency of NCD accumulation was also assessed for a multimorbidity definition. Frailty phenotypes were set according to Fried et al. criteria. Kaplan‒Meier survival analyses, mortality rates, and Cox proportional hazards models were estimated. RESULTS: Four different types of patterns were identified: 'Neuro-psychiatric', 'Metabolic', 'Cardiovascular', and 'Mixt' configurations. These configurations showed a higher mortality risk than the mere accumulation of NCDs [Cardiovascular HR:1.65 (1.07-2.57); 'Mixt' HR:1.49 (1.00-2.22); ≥3 NCDs HR:1.31 (1.09-1.58)]. Frailty exhibited a high and constant mortality risk, irrespective of the presence of any NCD configuration or multimorbidity definition. However, HRs decreased and lost statistical significance when phenotypes were considered in the Cox models [frailty + 'Cardiovascular' HR:1.56 (1.00-2.42); frailty + 'Mixt':1.42 (0.95-2.11); and frailty + ≥ 3 NCDs HR:1.23 (1.02-1.49)]. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty accompanying multimorbidity emerges as a more crucial indicator of mortality risk than multimorbidity alone. Therefore, studying NCD configurations is worthwhile as they may offer improved risk profiles for mortality as alternatives to straightforward counts.

Diet Quality and Multimorbidity in Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The role of diet quality in the accumulation of multiple chronic conditions is mostly unknown. This study examined diet quality in association with the number of chronic conditions and the rate of multimorbidity development among community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: We used data from 2 784 adults aged ≥65 years from the Seniors-ENRICA 2 cohort. Diet quality was assessed at baseline (2015-17) with the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) and the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS). Information on medical diagnoses was obtained from electronic clinical records up to 2021. RESULTS: Higher adherence to the AHEI-2010 was associated with a lower number of total chronic conditions (ß [95% CI] quartile 4 vs 1: -0.57 [-0.86 to 0.27], p trend < .001] and cardiometabolic conditions (-0.30 [-0.44 to -0.17], p trend < .001) at baseline, while higher adherence to the MEDAS was associated with a lower number of total chronic conditions (-0.30 [-0.58 to -0.02], p trend = .01) and neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative conditions (-0.09 [-0.17 to -0.01], p trend = .01). After a median follow-up of 5.2 years (range: 0.1-6.1 years) higher adherence to the AHEI-2010 was associated with a lower increase in chronic conditions (ß [95% confidence interval] quartile 4 vs 1: -0.16 [-0.30 to -0.01], p trend = .04) and with lower rate of chronic disease accumulation. CONCLUSIONS: Higher diet quality, as measured by the AHEI-2010, was associated with a lower number of chronic health conditions and a lower rate of multimorbidity development over time.

Nuevos factores de riesgo cardiovascular en el adulto mayor / New cardiovascular risk factors in the elderly

Introducción: Se han explorado los posibles predictores no tradicionales de enfermedades cardiovasculares en personas mayores. Objetivo: Identificar los factores de riesgo no tradicionales de mortalidad por enfermedades cardiovasculares en adultos mayores. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio analítico de tipo casos y controles en pacientes adultos mayores pertenecientes a 3 áreas de salud del municipio Santiago de Cuba, durante el año 2021. Los casos fueron pacientes fallecidos por enfermedad cardiovascular de tipo ateroesclerótica y los controles, pacientes adultos mayores vivos, sin la enfermedad. Se determinó la razón de productos cruzados (OR), el intervalo de confianza (IC) y la prueba ji cuadrado para identificar los factores de riesgo que se asociaron a la mortalidad. Resultados: La fragilidad (OR= 3,380; IC: 2,476-4,615; p= 0,000) y el deterioro cognitivo (OR= 2,731; IC: 2,006-3,717; p= 0,000] mostraron asociación estadística muy significativa con la mortalidad; los pacientes con 3 o más factores de riesgo presentaron un mayor riesgo de mortalidad (OR= 4,683). Conclusiones: La fragilidad y la multimorbilidad son nuevos predictores de mortalidad por enfermedades cardiovasculares en adultos mayores, que cuando se asocian, implican mayor riesgo(AU)

Introduction: Possible non-traditional predictors of cardiovascular diseases in older people have been explored. Objective: Identify non-traditional risk factors predictive of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in older adults. Method: An analytical case-control study was carried out on older adult patients belonging to 3 health areas of the Santiago de Cuba municipality, during the year 2021. Cases: patients who died due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and controls, older adult patients alive, without the disease. The cross-product ratio (OR), the confidence interval (CI) and the chi-square test were determined to identify the factors that were associated with the onset of the disease. Results: Frailty (OR= 3.380; CI: 2.476-4.615; p= 0.000) and cognitive impairment (OR= 2.731; CI: 2.006-3.717; p= 0.000) showed a very significant statistical association with mortality; patients with 3 or more risk factors presented a higher risk of mortality (OR= 4.683). Conclusions: Frailty and multimorbidity are new predictors of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in older adults, which when associated imply greater risk(AU)

20-year trends in multimorbidity by race/ethnicity among hospitalized patient populations in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The challenges presented by multimorbidity continue to rise in the United States. Little is known about how the relative contribution of individual chronic conditions to multimorbidity has changed over time, and how this varies by race/ethnicity. The objective of this study was to describe trends in multimorbidity by race/ethnicity, as well as to determine the differential contribution of individual chronic conditions to multimorbidity in hospitalized populations over a 20-year period within the United States. METHODS: This is a serial cross-sectional study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 1993 to 2012. We identified all hospitalized patients aged ≥ 18 years old with available data on race/ethnicity. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of 3 or more conditions based on the Elixhauser comorbidity index. The relative change in the proportion of hospitalized patients with multimorbidity, overall and by race/ethnicity (Black, White, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, Native American) were tabulated and presented graphically. Population attributable fractions were estimated from modified Poisson regression models adjusted for sex, age, and insurance type. These fractions were used to describe the relative contribution of individual chronic conditions to multimorbidity over time and across racial/ethnic groups. RESULTS: There were 123,613,970 hospitalizations captured within the NIS between 1993 and 2012. The prevalence of multimorbidity increased in all race/ethnic groups over the 20-year period, most notably among White, Black, and Native American populations (+ 29.4%, + 29.7%, and + 32.0%, respectively). In both 1993 and 2012, Black hospitalized patients had a higher prevalence of multimorbidity (25.1% and 54.8%, respectively) compared to all other race/ethnic groups. Native American populations exhibited the largest overall increase in multimorbidity (+ 32.0%). Furthermore, the contribution of metabolic diseases to multimorbidity increased, particularly among Hispanic patients who had the highest population attributable fraction values for diabetes without complications (15.0%), diabetes with complications (5.1%), and obesity (5.8%). CONCLUSIONS: From 1993 to 2012, the secular increases in the prevalence of multimorbidity as well as changes in the differential contribution of individual chronic conditions has varied substantially by race/ethnicity. These findings further elucidate the racial/ethnic gaps prevalent in multimorbidity within the United States. PRIOR PRESENTATIONS: Preliminary finding of this study were presented at the Society of General Internal Medicine (SGIM) Annual Conference, Washington, DC, April 21, 2017.

Redefining Multimorbidity in Older Surgical Patients.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity in surgery is common and associated with worse postoperative outcomes. However, conventional multimorbidity definitions (≥2 comorbidities) label the vast majority of older patients as multimorbid, limiting clinical usefulness. We sought to develop and validate better surgical specialty-specific multimorbidity definitions based on distinct comorbidity combinations. STUDY DESIGN: We used Medicare claims for patients aged 66 to 90 years undergoing inpatient general, orthopaedic, or vascular surgery. Using 2016 to 2017 data, we identified all comorbidity combinations associated with at least 2-fold (general/orthopaedic) or 1.5-fold (vascular) greater risk of 30-day mortality compared with the overall population undergoing the same procedure; we called these combinations qualifying comorbidity sets. We applied them to 2018 to 2019 data (general = 230,410 patients, orthopaedic = 778,131 patients, vascular = 146,570 patients) to obtain 30-day mortality estimates. For further validation, we tested whether multimorbidity status was associated with differential outcomes for patients at better-resourced (based on nursing skill-mix, surgical volume, teaching status) hospitals vs all other hospitals using multivariate matching. RESULTS: Compared with conventional multimorbidity definitions, the new definitions labeled far fewer patients as multimorbid: general = 85.0% (conventional) vs 55.9% (new) (p < 0.0001); orthopaedic = 66.6% vs 40.2% (p < 0.0001); and vascular = 96.2% vs 52.7% (p < 0.0001). Thirty-day mortality was higher by the new definitions: general = 3.96% (conventional) vs 5.64% (new) (p < 0.0001); orthopaedic = 0.13% vs 1.68% (p < 0.0001); and vascular = 4.43% vs 7.00% (p < 0.0001). Better-resourced hospitals offered significantly larger mortality benefits than all other hospitals for multimorbid vs nonmultimorbid general and orthopaedic, but not vascular, patients (general surgery difference-in-difference = -0.94% [-1.36%, -0.52%], p < 0.0001; orthopaedic = -0.20% [-0.34%, -0.05%], p = 0.0087; and vascular = -0.12% [-0.69%, 0.45%], p = 0.6795). CONCLUSIONS: Our new multimorbidity definitions identified far more specific, higher-risk pools of patients than conventional definitions, potentially aiding clinical decision-making.

Multimorbidity is associated with the income, education, employment and health domains of area-level deprivation in adult residents in the UK.

Evidence suggests that there are social inequalities in multimorbidity, with a recent review indicating that area levels of deprivation are consistently associated with greater levels of multimorbidity. Definitions of multimorbidity, the most common of which is the co-occurrence of more than one long term condition, can include long term physical conditions, mental health conditions or both. The most commonly used measure of deprivation in England and Wales is the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), an index of seven different deprivation domains. It is unclear which features of IMD may be mediating associations with multimorbidity. Thus, there may be associations because of the individual characteristics of those living in deprived areas, characteristics of the areas themselves or overlap in definitions. Data from over 25,000 participants (aged 16+) of Understanding Society (Wave 10, 1/2018-3/2020) were used to understand the most salient features of multimorbidity associated with IMD and whether physical or mental conditions are differentially associated with the seven domains of IMD. 24% of participants report multimorbidity. There is an increased prevalence of multimorbidity composed of only long-term physical conditions in the most deprived decile of deprivation (22%, 95% CI[19,25]) compared to the least deprived decile (16%, 95% CI[14,18]). Mental health symptoms but not reporting of conditions vary by decile of IMD. Associations with multimorbidity are limited to the health, income, education and employment domains of IMD. We conclude that multimorbidity represents a substantial population burden, particularly in the most deprived areas in England and Wales.

Improving Stroke Risk Prediction in the General Population: A Comparative Assessment of Common Clinical Rules, a New Multimorbid Index, and Machine-Learning-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: There are few large studies examining and predicting the diversified cardiovascular/noncardiovascular comorbidity relationships with stroke. We investigated stroke risks in a very large prospective cohort of patients with multimorbidity, using two common clinical rules, a clinical multimorbid index and a machine-learning (ML) approach, accounting for the complex relationships among variables, including the dynamic nature of changing risk factors. METHODS: We studied a prospective U.S. cohort of 3,435,224 patients from medical databases in a 2-year investigation. Stroke outcomes were examined in relationship to diverse multimorbid conditions, demographic variables, and other inputs, with ML accounting for the dynamic nature of changing multimorbidity risk factors, two clinical risk scores, and a clinical multimorbid index. RESULTS: Common clinical risk scores had moderate and comparable c indices with stroke outcomes in the training and external validation samples (validation-CHADS2: c index 0.812, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.808-0.815; CHA2DS2-VASc: c index 0.809, 95% CI 0.805-0.812). A clinical multimorbid index had higher discriminant validity values for both the training/external validation samples (validation: c index 0.850, 95% CI 0.847-0.853). The ML-based algorithms yielded the highest discriminant validity values for the gradient boosting/neural network logistic regression formulations with no significant differences among the ML approaches (validation for logistic regression: c index 0.866, 95% CI 0.856-0.876). Calibration of the ML-based formulation was satisfactory across a wide range of predicted probabilities. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that clinical utility for the ML-based formulation was better than that for the two current clinical rules and the newly developed multimorbid tool. Also, ML models and clinical stroke risk scores were more clinically useful than the "treat all" strategy. CONCLUSION: Complex relationships of various comorbidities uncovered using a ML approach for diverse (and dynamic) multimorbidity changes have major consequences for stroke risk prediction. This approach may facilitate automated approaches for dynamic risk stratification in the significant presence of multimorbidity, helping in the decision-making process for risk assessment and integrated/holistic management.

National Trends and Outcomes Associated With Presence and Type of Usual Clinician Among Older Adults With Multimorbidity.

Importance: Declining primary care visit rates and increasing specialist visit rates among older adults with multimorbidity raise questions about the presence, specialty, and outcomes associated with usual clinicians of care for these adults. Objective: To examine trends in the presence and specialty of usual clinicians and the association with preventive care receipt and spending. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study used repeated cross-sectional analyses of Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data from 2010, 2013, and 2016. Participants were community-dwelling Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare members with at least 2 chronic conditions. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, to February 5, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Trends and factors associated with self-reported usual clinician presence and specialty. Multivariable regression was used to examine associations between usual clinician presence and specialty with preventive care receipt and spending, controlling for respondent sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Results: A total of 25 490 unweighted respondent-years were examined, representing 90 324 639 respondent-years across the United States. Overall, 58.4% of respondent-years belonged to women, and the mean (SD) age of respondents was 77.5 (7.5) years. From 2010 to 2016, those reporting usual clinicians dropped from 94.2% to 91.0% (P < .001). Across study years, respondents were more likely to report a usual clinician if they were women (adjusted marginal difference [AMD], 2.5 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.5-3.5 percentage points) or had higher income (≥$50 000 vs <$15 000: AMD, 2.2 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.1-3.4 percentage points) and less likely if they were Black beneficiaries (vs White: AMD, -2.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.3 to -1.3 percentage points) or had traditional Medicare (vs Medicare Advantage: AMD, -3.2 percentage points; 95% CI. -4.1 to -2.3 percentage points). Among 23 279 respondents with usual clinicians, those reporting specialists as their usual clinicians decreased from 5.3% to 4.1% (P < .001). Across the study period, respondents were more likely to report specialists as their usual clinicians if they had traditional Medicare (vs Medicare Advantage: AMD, 2.3 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.6 to 2.9 percentage points), were Black or non-White Hispanic (Black vs White: AMD, 1.5 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.2 to 2.8 percentage points; non-White Hispanic vs White: AMD, 3.8 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.9 to 5.7 percentage points), or lived in the Northeast (vs Midwest: AMD, 3.6 percentage points; 95% CI, 2.1 to 5.2 percentage points). Compared with those without usual clinicians, respondents with usual clinicians were more likely to receive all examined preventive services, such as cholesterol screening (AMD, 6.7 percentage points; 95% CI, 5.4 to 8.1 percentage points) and influenza vaccines (AMD, 11.6 percentage points; 95% CI, 9.2 to 14.0 percentage points). Among respondents with usual clinicians, those reporting specialist usual clinicians (vs primary care) were less likely to receive influenza vaccines (AMD, -5.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.2 to -2.1). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, older adults with multimorbidity were less likely to have a usual clinician over the study period, with potential implications for preventive care receipt. Our results suggest a key role for usual clinicians, especially primary care clinicians, in vaccination uptake for this population.

Chronic-Care-Management Programs for Multimorbid Patients with Diabetes in Europe: A Scoping Review with the Aim to Identify the Best Practice.

AIM: This scoping review is aimed at providing a current descriptive overview of care programs based on the chronic care model (CCM) according to E. H. Wagner. The evaluation is carried out within Europe and assesses the methodology and comparability of the studies. METHODS: A systematic search in the databases PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE via OVID was conducted. In the beginning, 2309 articles were found and 48 full texts were examined, 19 of which were incorporated. Included were CCM-based programs from Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. All 19 articles were presented descriptively whereof 11 articles were finally evaluated in a checklist by Rothe et al. (2020). In this paper, the studies were tabulated and evaluated conforming to the same criteria. RESULTS: Due to the complexity of the CCM and the heterogeneity of the studies in terms of setting and implementation, a direct comparison proved difficult. Nevertheless, the review shows that CCM was successfully implemented in various care situations and also can be useful in single practices, which often dominate the primary care sector in many European health systems. The present review was able to provide a comprehensive overview of the current care situation of chronically ill patients with multimorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: A unified nomenclature concerning the distinction between disease management programs and CCM-based programs should be aimed for. Similarly, homogeneous quality standards and a Europe-wide evaluation strategy would be necessary to identify best practice models and to provide better care for the steadily growing number of chronically multimorbid patients.