Ecological and biogeographic drivers of biodiversity cannot be resolved using clade age-richness data.

Estimates of evolutionary diversification rates - speciation and extinction - have been used extensively to explain global biodiversity patterns. Many studies have analyzed diversification rates derived from just two pieces of information: a clade's age and its extant species richness. This "age-richness rate" (ARR) estimator provides a convenient shortcut for comparative studies, but makes strong assumptions about the dynamics of species richness through time. Here we demonstrate that use of the ARR estimator in comparative studies is problematic on both theoretical and empirical grounds. We prove mathematically that ARR estimates are non-identifiable: there is no information in the data for a single clade that can distinguish a process with positive net diversification from one where net diversification is zero. Using paleontological time series, we demonstrate that the ARR estimator has no predictive ability for real datasets. These pathologies arise because the ARR inference procedure yields "point estimates" that have been computed under a saturated statistical model with zero degrees of freedom. Although ARR estimates remain useful in some contexts, they should be avoided for comparative studies of diversification and species richness.

Fossils from Mille-Logya, Afar, Ethiopia, elucidate the link between Pliocene environmental changes and Homo origins.

Several hypotheses posit a link between the origin of Homo and climatic and environmental shifts between 3 and 2.5 Ma. Here we report on new results that shed light on the interplay between tectonics, basin migration and faunal change on the one hand and the fate of Australopithecus afarensis and the evolution of Homo on the other. Fieldwork at the new Mille-Logya site in the Afar, Ethiopia, dated to between 2.914 and 2.443 Ma, provides geological evidence for the northeast migration of the Hadar Basin, extending the record of this lacustrine basin to Mille-Logya. We have identified three new fossiliferous units, suggesting in situ faunal change within this interval. While the fauna in the older unit is comparable to that at Hadar and Dikika, the younger units contain species that indicate more open conditions along with remains of Homo. This suggests that Homo either emerged from Australopithecus during this interval or dispersed into the region as part of a fauna adapted to more open habitats.

Dynamic and synchronous changes in metazoan body size during the Cambrian Explosion.

Many aspects of the drivers for, and evolutionary dynamics of, the Cambrian Explosion are poorly understood. Here we quantify high-resolution changes in species body size in major metazoan groups on the Siberian Platform during the early Cambrian (ca. 540-510 Million years ago (Ma)). Archaeocyath sponges, hyolith lophophorates, and helcionelloid mollusc species show dynamic and synchronous trends over million-year timescales, with peaks in body size during the latest Tommotian/early Atbadanian and late Atdabanian/early Botoman, and notably small body sizes in the middle Atdabanian and after the Sinsk anoxic extinction event, starting ca. 513 Ma. These intervals of body size changes are also mirrored in individual species and correlate positively with increased rates of origination and broadly with total species diversity. Calcitic brachiopods (rhynchonelliformeans), however, show a general increase in body size following the increase in species diversity through this interval: phosphatic brachiopods (linguliformeans) show a body size decrease that negatively correlates with diversity. Both brachiopod groups show a rapid recovery at the Sinsk Event. The synchronous changes in these metrics in archaeocyath, hyoliths and helcionelloids suggest the operation of external drivers through the early Cambrian, such as episodic changes in oxygenation or productivity. But the trends shown by brachiopods suggests a differing physiological response. Together, these dynamics created both the distinct evolutionary record of metazoan groups during the Cambrian Explosion and determined the nature of its termination.

Illustrating phylogenetic placement of fossils using RoguePlots: An example from ichneumonid parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae) and an extensive morphological matrix.

The fossil record constitutes the primary source of information about the evolutionary history of extant and extinct groups, and many analyses of macroevolution rely on fossils that are accurately placed within phylogenies. To avoid misinterpretation of the fossil record, especially by non-palaeontologists, the proper assessment and communication of uncertainty in fossil placement is crucial. We here use Bayesian morphological phylogenetics to evaluate the classifications of fossil parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae) and introduce 'RoguePlots' to illustrate placement uncertainty on the phylogeny of extant taxa. Based on an extensive, newly constructed morphological matrix of 222 characters in 24 fossil and 103 extant taxa, we test three different aspects of models of morphological evolution. We find that a model that includes ordered characters, among-character rate variation, and a state-space restricted to observed states achieves the highest marginal likelihoods. The individual RoguePlots reveal large differences in confidence in the placement of the different fossils and allow some refinements to their classification: Polyhelictes bipolarus and Ichninsum appendicrassum are moved from an uncertain subfamily placement to Pimplinae, Plectiscidea lanhami is transferred to Allomacrus in Cylloceriinae (Allomacrus lanhami, comb. nov.), Lithotorus cressoni is moved from Diplazontinae to Orthocentrinae, and we note uncertainty in the generic placements of Rhyssella? vera and Xanthopimpla? messelensis. We discuss potential artefacts that might result in biased posterior probabilities in Bayesian morphological phylogenetic analyses, pertaining to character and taxon sampling, fossilization biases, and model misspecification. Finally, we suggest future directions both in ichneumonid palaeontology and in the way RoguePlots can improve both assessment and representation of placement uncertainty, both in fossils and other rogue taxa.

Zoophycos macroevolution since 541 Ma.

Zoophycos is one of the most complex and enigmatic trace fossils recorded in marine strata from Cambrian to Quaternary worldwide, which is invaluable for the study of Phanerozoic development of organism-environment interactions. Here we address and demonstrate the macroevolution of Phanerozoic Zoophycos by assembling 448 points in constructing the Phanerozoic Zoophycos database based on 291 papers from 1821 to 2015 and 180 specimens from Cambrian to Palaeogene. The comprehensive dataset reveals, for the first time, five peaks and six depressions in Phanerozoic Zoophycos occurrence frequency. Secondly, the palaeogeographical distribution of Zoophycos is closely associated with the supercontinent Pangaea shifting, independent of the latitude. Our data also attest that the bathymetrical shift of Zoophycos from the littoral-neritic to bathyal environments is synchronized with the tiering shift from shallow to deep. By detailed comparison with body fossils, geochemical and palaeogeographical records, we conclude that the macroevolution of Phanerozoic Zoophycos is multi-affected by the global biodiversity expansion, benthic nutrient enhancement, and the biotic macroevolution of the Zoophycos-producers. The macroevolution of development evidenced by the morphological changes of Zoophycos and other trace fossils, may have great implications on the behavioural and physiological adaptation of ancient animals to the environments.

Geographic patterns of craniofacial variation in pre-Hispanic populations from the Southern Cone of South America.

In this study we analyzed the relationships and patterns of spatial variation from morphological cranial variability of 17 population samples representing the ancient inhabitants of the central territory of Argentina (archaeologically known as "Sierras Centrales") and other pre-Hispanic populations from different ecological and geographic regions of the Southern Cone of South America (Argentina and Uruguay), based on the analysis of 10 craniofacial measurements. Results obtained from D2 distances can be interpreted as evidence of a similar biological history for the populations that inhabited the Sierras Centrales and the population of Santiago del Estero. Matrix correlation analysis demonstrated that craniometric variation is significantly influenced by geography, suggesting that populations that lived at lower geographical distance share more biological similarity. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests a clinal pattern for the biological variation, although Moran's I estimates calculated for each variable demonstrate that only nasal height and breadth show this spatial pattern of variation. Results from spatial regression techniques show a significant effect of altitude modeling nasal shape, in agreement with previous studies suggesting that nasal morphology is strongly influenced by environment variables.

Search-based optimization.

The problem of determining the minimum cost hypothetical ancestral sequences for a given cladogram is known to be NP-complete (Wang and Jiang, 1994). Traditionally, point estimations of hypothetical ancestral sequences have been used to gain heuristic, upper bounds on cladogram cost. These include procedures with such diverse approaches as non-additive optimization of multiple sequence alignment, direct optimization (Wheeler, 1996), and fixed-state character optimization (Wheeler, 1999). A method is proposed here which, by extending fixed-state character optimization, replaces the estimation process with a search. This form of optimization examines a diversity of potential state solutions for cost-efficient hypothetical ancestral sequences and can result in greatly more parsimonious cladograms. Additionally, such an approach can be applied to other NP-complete phylogenetic optimization problems such as genomic break-point analysis.

Likelihood ratio tests for a mixture of two von Mises distributions.

It is proposed that the orientation of elongate objects, such as bones, may be used to identify the flow direction of ancient river deposits. If true, elongate objects could be of great value when ancient bedforms such as ripples and dunes are not visible. Two sandstone quarries were investigated wherein the paleoflow direction was determined from both bedforms and elongate dinosaur bones. A mixture of two von Mises distributions captures the observation that elongate bones transported under unidirectional flow conditions will align both parallel and perpendicular to the flow direction. Likelihood ratio tests for a mixture of two von Mises distributions are given. The power of these tests is investigated by simulation since the direction of dinosaur bones agrees with the primary bedforms if the hypothesis test comparing the dominant mean direction of the bones to the paleoflow direction fails to reject. The likelihood ratio test on the dominant mean direction has reasonable power. If the two mean directions in the mixture distribution are pi apart, a more powerful likelihood ratio test can be used. The likelihood ratio test on the hypothesis that the two mean directions are exactly pi apart is useful in determining if the assumptions of the more powerful test are satisfied.

On the origins of human laterality: environmental and hereditary variables in a sample of children.

On the basis of operationally defined handedness data from 1,348 subjects of both sexes and of ages 10 to 15 years, laterality was compared with prehistorical data of handprints found in caves. It was hypothesized that the greater production of left handprints found in caves in comparison with current data should be ascribed to a nonestablished deviation of lefthanders towards righthandedness as environmental pressures in the distant past were lower.

Competitive displacement among post-Paleozoic cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans.

Encrusting bryozoans provide one of the few systems in the fossil record in which ecological competition can be observed directly at local scales. The macroevolutionary history of diversity of cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans is consistent with a coupled-logistic model of clade displacement predicated on species within clades interacting competitively. The model matches observed diversity history if the model is perturbed by a mass extinction with a position and magnitude analogous to the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, Although it is difficult to measure all parameters in the model from fossil data, critical factors are intrinsic rates of extinction, which can be measured. Cyclostomes maintained a rather low rate of extinction, and the model solutions predict that they would lose diversity only slowly as competitively superior species of cheilostomes diversified into their environment. Thus, the microecological record of preserved competitive interactions between cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans and the macroevolutionary record of global diversity are consistent in regard to competition as a significant influence on diversity histories of post-Paleozoic bryozoans.

Biotic transitions in global marine diversity.

Long-term transitions in the composition of Earth's marine biota during the Phanerozoic have historically been explained in two different ways. One view is that they were mediated through biotic interactions among organisms played out over geologic time. The other is that mass extinctions transcended any such interactions and governed diversity over the long term by resetting the relative diversities of higher taxa. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that macroevolutionary processes effecting biotic transitions during background times were not fundamentally different from those operating during mass extinctions. Physical perturbations at many geographic scales combined to produce the long-term trajectory of Phanerozoic diversity.

Comparative diversification dynamics among palaeocontinents during the Ordovician Radiation.

The Ordovician Radiation was among the most extensive intervals of diversification in the history of life. However, a delineation of the proximal cause(s) of the Radiation remains elusive. Any such determination should involve an analysis of geographic overprints on diversification: did the Radiation occur randomly around the world or, alternatively, was it focused in particular geographic or depositional regimes? Here, I present a comparative evaluation of Ordovician diversification among several palaeocontinents to determine whether biotas associated with certain palaeocontinents exhibited different diversification patterns than others; in part, this involves a numerical "correction" to raw diversity trajectories. Clear disparities among palaeocontinents are indicated by the data, which appear to reflect differences in the extent of siliciclastic input partly in association with tectonic activity. Further testing will be required to fully substantiate the implication that siliciclastic influx was a predominant factor in the Ordovician Radiation, affecting a variety of higher taxa among all three Phanerozoic evolutionary faunas.

Calibrating the Ordovician Radiation of marine life: implications for Phanerozoic diversity trends.

It has long been suspected that trends in global marine biodiversity calibrated for the Phanerozoic may be affected by sampling problems. However, this possibility has not been evaluated definitively, and raw diversity trends are generally accepted at face value in macroevolutionary investigations. Here, we analyze a global-scale sample of fossil occurrences that allows us to determine directly the effects of sample size on the calibration of what is generally thought to be among the most significant global biodiversity increases in the history of life: the Ordovician Radiation. Utilizing a composite database that includes trilobites, brachiopods, and three classes of molluscs, we conduct rarefaction analyses to demonstrate that the diversification trajectory for the Radiation was considerably different than suggested by raw diversity time-series. Our analyses suggest that a substantial portion of the increase recognized in raw diversity depictions for the last three Ordovician epochs (the Llandeilian, Caradocian, and Ashgillian) is a consequence of increased sample size of the preserved and catalogued fossil record. We also use biometric data for a global sample of Ordovician trilobites, along with methods of measuring morphological diversity that are not biased by sample size, to show that morphological diversification in this major clade had leveled off by the Llanvirnian. The discordance between raw diversity depictions and more robust taxonomic and morphological diversity metrics suggests that sampling effects may strongly influence our perception of biodiversity trends throughout the Phanerozoic.

Limits to randomness in paleobiologic models: the case of Phanerozoic species diversity.

The question of how random, or unconstrained, paleobiologic models should be is examined with a case study: Signor's (1982, 1985) inverse calculation of levels of marine species diversity through the Phanerozoic. His calculation involved an ingenious model that estimated species numbers and species abundances in the world oceans of the past by correcting known numbers of fossil species for variations in sedimentary rocks available for sampling and in effort paleontologists might devote to sampling. The model proves robust to changes in possible shapes of species-abundance distributions, but it is sensitive to alterations in the assumption that paleontologists collect fossils at random. If it is assumed that ease of collecting varies with age of sediment (with the Cenozoic offering easy sampling) or that paleontologists tend to seek out rarer fossils, results of the inverse calculation change. In particular, the magnitude of the calculated Cenozoic diversity increase always declines from the factor of about seven as originally reported to something considerably smaller. This leaves open the problem of the magnitude of Cenozoic increase in marine species diversity, awaiting better empirical data and, perhaps, more exacting models, random or otherwise.

Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa.

The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.

Numerical simulations and the problem of periodicity in the cratering record.

Ages of craters in the record of impacts on earth may be uniformly period, totally random, or a mixture of the two. These alternatives are studied through numerical simulation wherein time-series analysis is performed on real and simulated sequences to which random noise has been added to represent age-dating uncertainty. We conclude that the real record is most likely to have been generated by a mixture of random and periodic impacts, with the random events constituting the majority.

Periodic extinction of families and genera.

Eight major episodes of biological extinction of marine families over the past 250 million years stand significantly above local background (P < 0.05). These events are more pronounced when analyzed at the level of genus, and generic data exhibit additional apparent extinction events in the Aptian (Cretaceous) and Pliocene (Tertiary) Stages. Time-series analysis of these records strongly suggests a 26-million-year periodicity. This conclusion is robust even when adjusted for simultaneous testing of many trial periods. When the time series is limited to the four best-dated events (Cenomanian, Maestrichtian, upper Eocene, and middle Miocene), the hypothesis of randomness is also rejected for the 26-million-year period (P < 0.0002).

Magnetic reversals and mass extinctions.

Previous analyses of the time distribution of reversals of the Earth's magnetic field have yielded mixed results. Some authors have claimed significant periodicities of order 10(7) yr whereas others have reported failure to reject null hypothesis of random spacing at that scale. Because of repeated suggestions that field reversal is linked to biological extinction, further analysis of the magnetic times series is appropriate. I present here the results of a study of the reversal record of the past 165 Myr. A stationary periodicity of 30 Myr emerges (superimposed on the non-stationarities already established by others), which predicts pulses of increased reversal activity centered at 10, 40, 70, ... Myr BP.