The impact of skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine on nosocomial deterioration and short-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective observational study.

Objective: To investigate the impact of the third lumbar skeletal muscle index (L3-SMI) assessed by CT on the in-hospital severity and short-term prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Methods: A total of 224 patients with severe acute pancreatitis admitted to Yantaishan Hospital from January 2021 to June 2022 were selected as the subjects. Based on the in-hospital treatment outcomes, they were divided into a mortality group of 59 cases as well as a survival group of 165 cases. Upon admission, general information such as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, along with the abdominal CT images of each patient, were analyzed. The L3-SMI was calculated, and the Modified CT Severity Index (MCTSI) and Balthazar CT grade were used to assess the severity of in-hospital complications of acute pancreatitis. The evaluation value of L3-SMI for the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis was analyzed, as well as the factors influencing the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis. Results: No statistically significant differences in gender, age, BMI, etiology, duration of anti-inflammatory drug use, and proportion of surgical patients between the survival and mortality groups were observed. But the mortality group showed higher proportions of patients with an elevated APACHE II score upon admission, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy, compared to the survival group, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the mortality group had higher MCTSI scores (6.42 ± 0.69) and Balthazar CT grades (3.78 ± 0.45) than the survival group, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). The mortality group also had a lower L3-SMI (39.68 ± 3.25) compared to the survival group (42.71 ± 4.28), with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). L3-SMI exhibited a negative correlation with MCTSI scores and Balthazar CT grades (r = -0.889, -0.790, P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis, with mortality of acute pancreatitis patients as the dependent variable and MCTSI scores, Balthazar CT grades, L3-SMI, APACHE II score upon admission, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy as independent variables, revealed that MCTSI scores and L3-SMI were risk factors for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients (P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis using the same variables confirmed that all these factors were risk factors for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients. Conclusion: This study confirmed that diagnosing muscle depletion using L3-SMI is a valuable radiological parameter for predicting in-hospital severity and short-term prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Prolonged elevated heart rate and 90-Day mortality in acute pancreatitis.

Prolonged elevated heart rate (peHR) is recognized as a risk factor for poor prognosis among critically ill patients. However, there is currently a lack of studies investigating the association between peHR and patients with acute pancreatitis. Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was used to identify patients with acute pancreatitis. PeHR was defined as a heart rate exceeding 100 beats per minute for at least 11 out of 12 consecutive hours. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the association between peHR and the 90-Day mortality. A total of 364 patients (48.9%) experienced a peHR episode. The 90-day mortality was 25%. PeHR is an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality (HR, 1.98; 95% CI 1.53-2.56; P < 0.001). KM survival curves exhibited a significant decrease in the survival rate at 90 days among patients who experienced a peHR episode (P < 0.001, 84.5% vs. 65.1%). We revealed a significant association of peHR with decreased survival in a large cohort of ICU patients with acute pancreatitis.

Identifying novel acute pancreatitis sub-phenotypes using total serum calcium trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) has heterogeneous clinical features, and identifying clinically relevant sub-phenotypes is useful. We aimed to identify novel sub-phenotypes in hospitalized AP patients using longitudinal total serum calcium (TSC) trajectories. METHODS: AP patients had at least two TSC measurements during the first 24 h of hospitalization in the US-based critical care database (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) and MIMIC-IV were included. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify calcium trajectory phenotypes, and patient characteristics and treatment outcomes were compared between the phenotypes. RESULTS: A total of 4518 admissions were included in the analysis. Four TSC trajectory groups were identified: "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" (n = 65; 1.4% of the cohort); "Moderately low TSC" (n = 559; 12.4%); "Stable normal-calcium" (n = 3875; 85.8%); and "Fluctuating high TSC" (n = 19; 0.4%). The "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" had the lowest initial, maximum, minimum, and mean TSC, and highest SOFA score, creatinine and glucose level. In contrast, the "Stable normal-calcium" had the fewest ICU admission, antibiotic use, intubation and renal replace treatment. In adjusted analysis, significantly higher in-hospital mortality was noted among "Very low TSC, slow resolvers" (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 3.7 to 14.0), "moderately low TSC" (OR, 5.0; 95% CI, 3.8 to 6.7), and "Fluctuating high TSC" (OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 20.6) compared with the "Stable normal-calcium" group. CONCLUSIONS: We identified four novel sub-phenotypes of patients with AP, with significant variability in clinical outcomes. Not only the absolute TSC levels but also their trajectories were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

Association between serum creatinine to albumin ratio and short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit: a retrospective analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

Background: Serum creatinine (Cr) and albumin (Alb) are important predictors of mortality in individuals with various diseases, including acute pancreatitis (AP). However, most previous studies have only examined the relationship between single Cr or Alb levels and the prognosis of patients with AP. To our knowledge, the association between short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP and the blood creatinine to albumin ratio (CAR) has not been investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term relationships between CAR and all-cause mortality in patients with AP. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study utilizing data from the Medical Information Market for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. The study involved analyzing various mortality variables and obtaining CAR values at the time of admission. The X-tile software was used to determine the optimal threshold for the CAR. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between CAR and both short- and long-term all-cause mortality. The predictive power, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of CAR for short- and long-term mortality in patients with AP after hospital admission were investigated using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted. Results: A total of 520 participants were included in this study. The CAR ideal threshold, determined by X-tile software, was 0.446. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed an independent association between CAR≥0.446 and all-cause mortality at 7-day (d), 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-year (y) before and after adjustment for confounders. K-M survival curves showed that patients with CAR≥0.446 had lower survival rates at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y. Additionally, CAR demonstrated superior performance, with higher AUC values than Cr, Alb, serum total calcium, Glasgow Coma Scale, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score, and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y intervals. Subgroup analyses showed that CAR did not interact with a majority of subgroups. Conclusion: The CAR can serve as an independent predictor for short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP. This study enhances our understanding of the association between serum-based biomarkers and the prognosis of patients with AP.

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. RESULTS: Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592). CONCLUSION: The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

Impact of nutritional support routes on mortality in acute pancreatitis: A network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional administration in acute pancreatitis (AP) management has sparked widespread discussion, yet contradictory mortality results across meta-analyses necessitate clarification. The optimal nutritional route in AP remains uncertain. Therefore, this study aimed to compare mortality among nutritional administration routes in patients with AP using consistency model. METHODS: This study searched four major databases for relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two authors independently extracted and checked data and quality. Network meta-analysis was conducted for estimating risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) based on random-effects model. Subgroup analyses accounted for AP severity and nutrition support initiation. RESULTS: A meticulous search yielded 1185 references, with 30 records meeting inclusion criteria from 27 RCTs (n = 1594). Pooled analyses showed the mortality risk reduction associated with nasogastric (NG) (RR = 0.34; 95%CI: 0.16-0.73) and nasojejunal (NJ) feeding (RR = 0.46; 95%CI: 0.25-0.84) in comparison to nil per os. Similarly, NG (RR = 0.45; 95%CI: 0.24-0.83) and NJ (RR = 0.60; 95%CI: 0.40-0.90) feeding also showed lower mortality risk than total parenteral nutrition. Subgroup analyses, stratified by severity, supported these findings. Notably, the timing of nutritional support initiation emerged as a significant factor, with NJ feeding demonstrating notable mortality reduction within 24 and 48 h, particularly in severe cases. CONCLUSION: For severe AP, both NG and NJ feeding appear optimal, with variations in initiation timings. NG feeding does not appear to merit recommendation within the initial 24 h, whereas NJ feeding is advisable within the corresponding timeframe following admission. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing nutritional interventions in AP.

Addressing long-term mortality risk in patients undergoing total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplant (TPIAT): causes of death and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplant (TPIAT) can improve quality of life for individuals with pancreatitis but creates health risks including diabetes, exocrine insufficiency, altered intestinal anatomy and function, and asplenia. METHODS: We studied survival and causes of death for 693 patients who underwent TPIAT between 2001 and 2020, using the National Death Index with medical records to ascertain survival after TPIAT, causes of mortality, and risk factors for death. We used Kaplan Meier curves to examine overall survival, and Cox regression and competing-risks methods to determine pre-TPIAT factors associated with all-cause and cause-specific post-TPIAT mortality. RESULTS: Mean age at TPIAT was 33.6 years (SD = 15.1). Overall survival was 93.1% (95% CI 91.2, 95.1%) 5 years after surgery, 85.2% (95% CI 82.0, 88.6%) at 10 years, and 76.2% (95% CI 70.8, 82.3%) at 15 years. Fifty-three of 89 deaths were possibly related to TPIAT; causes included chronic gastrointestinal complications, malnutrition, diabetes, liver failure, and infection/sepsis. In multivariable models, younger age, longer disease duration, and more recent TPIAT were associated with lower mortality. CONCLUSIONS: For patients undergoing TPIAT to treat painful pancreatitis, careful long-term management of comorbidities introduced by TPIAT may reduce risk for common causes of mortality.

Impact of comorbidities on hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis: a population-based study of 110,021 patients.

BACKGROUND: The impact of pre-existing comorbidities on acute pancreatitis (AP) mortality is not clearly defined. Our study aims to determine the trend in AP hospital mortality and the role of comorbidities as a predictor of hospital mortality. METHODS: We analyzed patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with AP diagnosis between 2016 and 2019. The data have been extracted from the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database of the Spanish Ministry of Health. We performed a univariate and multivariable analysis of the association of age, sex, and comorbidities with hospital mortality in patients with AP. The role of the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices as predictors of mortality was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 110,021 patients diagnosed with AP were hospitalized during the analyzed period. Hospital mortality was 3.8%, with a progressive decrease observed in the years evaluated. In multivariable analysis, age ≥ 65 years (OR: 4.11, p < 0.001), heart disease (OR: 1.73, p < 0.001), renal disease (OR: 1.99, p < 0.001), moderate-severe liver disease (OR: 2.86, p < 0.001), peripheral vascular disease (OR: 1.43, p < 0.001), and cerebrovascular disease (OR: 1.63, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality. The Charlson > 1.5 (OR: 2.03, p < 0.001) and Elixhauser > 1.5 (OR: 2.71, p < 0.001) comorbidity indices were also independently associated with mortality, and ROC curve analysis showed that they are useful for predicting hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced age, heart disease, renal disease, moderate-severe liver disease, peripheral vascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease before admission were independently associated with hospital mortality. The Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices are useful for predicting hospital mortality in AP patients.

Perinatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Acute pancreatitis is a rare condition that can be associated with significant complications. The objective of this study is to evaluate the maternal and newborn outcomes associated with acute pancreatitis in pregnancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample from the United States was performed. All pregnant patients with acute pancreatitis were identified using International Classification of Disease-9 coding from 1999 to 2015. The effect of acute pancreatitis on maternal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancy was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression, while adjusting for baseline maternal characteristics. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2015, there were a total of 13,815,919 women who gave birth. There were a total of 14,258 admissions of women diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, including 1,756 who delivered during their admission and 12,502 women who were admitted in the antepartum period and did not deliver during the same admission. Acute pancreatitis was associated with increased risk of prematurity, OR 3.78 (95% CI 3.38-4.22), preeclampsia, 3.81(3.33-4.36), postpartum hemorrhage, 1.90(1.55-2.33), maternal death, 9.15(6.05-13.85), and fetal demise, 2.60(1.86-3.62) among women diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Among women with acute pancreatitis, delivery was associated with increased risk of requiring transfusions, 6.06(4.87-7.54), developing venous thromboembolisms, 2.77(1.83-4.18), acute respiratory failure, 3.66(2.73-4.91), and disseminated intravascular coagulation, 8.12(4.12-16.03). CONCLUSIONS: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy is associated with severe complications, such as maternal and fetal death. Understanding the risk factors that may lead to these complications can help prevent or minimize them through close fetal and maternal monitoring.

Etiology, case fatality, recurrence, and severity in pediatric acute pancreatitis: a meta-analysis of 48 studies.

For children, there are very few published reviews focusing on severe acute pancreatitis (AP). PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang data, EBSCO, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception until March 2020. Meta-regression analyses were used to estimate the etiology, case fatality, recurrence, and severity of pediatric AP in different regions (North America, Asia, South America, Europe, and Oceania). Pooled data from 47 papers (48 studies) found that main causes of pediatric AP were gallstones in Asia; trauma in Oceania; and idiopathic in Europe, North America, and South America. The case-fatality rate (CFR) of pediatric AP is 4.7% (North America), 6.2% (Europe), 2.4% (Asia), 3.1% (South America), and 7.4% (Oceania). The incidence rates of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) in children who have had an episode of acute pancreatitis in North American, Asia, and Europe were 15.3, 13.1, and 13.8%, respectively. The incidence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in different regions was 30.3% (Oceania), 29.2% (South America), 20.8% (Europe), 15.8% (Asia), and 13.7% (North America). It suggests that physicians should notice the etiology of pediatric AP for the initial assessment, diagnosis, prediction of relapse, and appropriate treatment at a later stage. IMPACT: It indicates the etiology of pediatric acute pancreatitis for the initial assessment, diagnosis, and prediction of relapse. Main causes of pediatric AP were gallstones in Asia; trauma in Oceania; and idiopathic in Europe, North America, and South America. The case-fatality rate of pediatric AP is diverse worldwide. It suggests that physicians noticed the etiology of pediatric AP for the initial assessment, diagnosis, prediction of relapse, and appropriate treatment at a later stage.

Growth differentiation factor 15 is an early predictor for persistent organ failure and mortality in acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Early prediction of persistent organ failure (POF) is crucial for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15), also known as macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1), is associated with inflammatory responses. We investigated changes in plasma GDF15 and assessed its predictive value in AP. METHODS: The study included 290 consecutive patients with AP admitted within 36 h after symptoms onset. Clinical data obtained during hospitalization were collected. Plasma GDF15 levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The predictive value of GDF15 for POF was analyzed. RESULTS: There were 105 mild, 111 moderately severe, and 74 severe AP patients. Plasma GDF15 peak level were measured on admission, and significantly declined on the 3rd and 7th day. Admission GDF15 predicted POF and mortality with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.798-0.895) and 0.934 (95% CI 0.887-0.980), respectively. Admission GDF15, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, and hematocrit were independent factors for POF by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram built on these variables showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.921). The combined predictive model increased the POF accuracy with an AUC 0.925 (95% CI 0.894-0.956), a net reclassification improvement of 0.3024 (95% CI: 0.1482-0.4565, P < 0.001), and an integrated discrimination index of 0.11 (95% CI 0.0497-0.1703; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma GDF15 measured within 48 h of symptom onset could help predict POF and mortality in AP patients.

Comparative effectiveness of cardiovascular, renal and safety outcomes of second-line antidiabetic drugs use in people with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

AIMS: To compare the cardiovascular, renal and safety outcomes of second-line glucose-lowering agents used in the management of people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL were searched from inception to 13 July 2021 for randomised controlled trials comparing second-line glucose lowering therapies with placebo, standard care or one another. Primary outcomes included cardiovascular and renal outcomes. Secondary outcomes were non-cardiovascular adverse events. Risk ratios (RRs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CI) or credible intervals (CrI) were reported within pairwise and network meta-analysis. The quality of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) criteria. Number needed to treat (NNT) and number needed (NNH) to harm were calculated at 5 years using incidence rates and RRs. PROSPERO (CRD42020168322). RESULTS: We included 38 trials from seven classes of glucose-lowering therapies. Both sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) showed moderate to high certainty in reducing risk of 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events, 3P-MACE (network estimates: SGLT2i [RR 0.90; 95% CrI 0.84-0.96; NNT, 59], GLP1RA [RR 0.88; 95% CrI 0.83-0.93; NNT, 50]), cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, renal composite outcome and macroalbuminuria. SGLT2i also showed high certainty in reducing risk of hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), ESRD, acute kidney injury, doubling in serum creatinine and decline in eGFR. GLP1RA were associated with lower risk of stroke (high certainty) while glitazone use was associated with an increased risk of hHF (very low certainty). The risk of developing ESRD was lower with the use of sulphonylureas (low certainty). For adverse events, sulphonylureas and insulin were associated with increased hypoglycaemic events (very low to low certainty), while GLP1RA increased the risk of gastrointestinal side effects leading to treatment discontinuation (low certainty). DPP-4i increased risk of acute pancreatitis (low certainty). SGLT2i were associated with increased risk of genital infection, volume depletion (high certainty), amputation and ketoacidosis (moderate certainty). Risk of fracture was increased with the use of glitazones (moderate certainty). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i and GLP1RA were associated with lower risk for different cardiorenal end points, when used as an adjunct to metformin in people with type 2 diabetes. Additionally, SGLT2i demonstrated benefits in reducing risk for surrogate end points in kidney disease progression. Safety outcomes differ among the available pharmacotherapies.

The BISAP score, NLR, CRP, or BUN: Which marker best predicts the outcome of acute pancreatitis?

ABSTRACT: Acute pancreatitis is a common disease, and the mortality rate can be high. Thus, a risk assessment should be performed early to optimize treatment. We compared simple prognostic markers with the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring system to identify the best predictors of severity and mortality.This retrospective study stratified disease severity based on the revised Atlanta criteria. The accuracies of the markers for predicting severe AP (SAP) were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated for each marker. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of SAP and mortality.The area under the curve (AUC) for the BISAP score was classified as fair for predicting SAP. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio at 48 hours (NLR48 h) and the C-reactive protein level at 48 hours (CRP48 h) had the best AUCs and were independently associated with SAP. When both criteria were met, the AUC was 0.89, sensitivity was 68%, and specificity was 92%. CRP48 h and hematocrit at 48 hours were independently associated with mortality.NLR48 h and CRP48 h were independently associated with SAP but not superior to the BISAP score at admission. Assessing NLR48 h and CRP48H together was most suitable for predicting SAP. The CRP level was a good predictive marker for mortality.

Hypoalbuminemia affects one third of acute pancreatitis patients and is independently associated with severity and mortality.

The incidence and medical costs of acute pancreatitis (AP) are on the rise, and severe cases still have a 30% mortality rate. We aimed to evaluate hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor and the prognostic value of human serum albumin in AP. Data from 2461 patients were extracted from the international, prospective, multicentre AP registry operated by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Data from patients with albumin measurement in the first 48 h (n = 1149) and anytime during hospitalization (n = 1272) were analysed. Multivariate binary logistic regression and Receiver Operator Characteristic curve analysis were used. The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (< 35 g/L) was 19% on admission and 35.7% during hospitalization. Hypoalbuminemia dose-dependently increased the risk of severity, mortality, local complications and organ failure and is associated with longer hospital stay. The predictive value of hypoalbuminemia on admission was poor for severity and mortality. Severe hypoalbuminemia (< 25 g/L) represented an independent risk factor for severity (OR 48.761; CI 25.276-98.908) and mortality (OR 16.83; CI 8.32-35.13). Albumin loss during AP was strongly associated with severity (p < 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.002). Hypoalbuminemia represents an independent risk factor for severity and mortality in AP, and it shows a dose-dependent relationship with local complications, organ failure and length of stay.

Analysis of Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients With Varying Degrees of Hyperlipasemia.

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients may have varying degrees of hyperlipasemia. The aim was to compare outcomes among different levels of hyperlipasemia in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a retrospective study examining outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with a lipase <3× upper limit of normal (ULN), asymptomatic hyperlipasemia (>3× ULN), secondary pancreatitis (typical respiratory COVID-19 symptoms and found to have pancreatitis), and primary pancreatitis (presenting with pancreatitis). RESULTS: Of 11,883 patients admitted with COVID-19, 1560 patients were included: 1155 patients had normal serum lipase (control group), 270 had elevated lipase <3× ULN, 46 patients had asymptomatic hyperlipasemia with lipase >3× ULN, 57 patients had secondary pancreatitis, and 32 patients had primary pancreatitis. On adjusted multivariate analysis, the elevated lipase <3× ULN and asymptomatic hyperlipasemia groups had worse outcomes with higher mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.6 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.2) and 1.1 [95% CI, 0.5-2.3], respectively), higher need for mechanical ventilation (OR, 2.8 [95% CI, 1.2-2.1] and 2.8 [95% CI, 1.5-5.2], respectively), and longer length of stay (OR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.1-2.0] and 3.16 [95% CI, 1.5-6.5], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 with elevated lipase <3× ULN and asymptomatic hyperlipasemia have generally worse outcomes than those with pancreatitis.

Chymase as a Novel Therapeutic Target in Acute Pancreatitis.

Acute pancreatitis is still a life-threatening disease without an evidenced therapeutic agent. In this study, the effect of chymase in acute pancreatitis and the possible effect of a chymase inhibitor in acute pancreatitis were investigated. Hamsters were subcutaneously administered 3.0 g/kg of L-arginine to induce acute pancreatitis. Biological markers were measured 1, 2, and 8 h after L-arginine administration. To investigate the effect of a chymase inhibitor, a placebo (saline) or a chymase inhibitor TY-51469 (30 mg/kg) was given 1 h after L-arginine administration. The survival rates were evaluated for 24 h after L-arginine administration. Significant increases in serum lipase levels and pancreatic neutrophil numbers were observed at 1 and 2 h after L-arginine administration, respectively. Significant increases in pancreatic neutrophil numbers were observed in the placebo-treated group, but they were significantly reduced in the TY-51469-treated group. A significant increase in the pancreatic tumor necrosis factor-α mRNA level was observed in the placebo-treated group, but it disappeared in the TY-51469-treated group. Chymase activity significantly increased in the placebo-treated group, but it was significantly reduced by treatment with TY-51469. The survival rate significantly improved in the TY-51469-treated group. A chymase inhibitor may become a novel therapeutic agent for acute pancreatitis.

Glucose levels show independent and dose-dependent association with worsening acute pancreatitis outcomes: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective, international cohort of 2250 acute pancreatitis cases.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic risk factors, such as obesity, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia are independent risk factors for the development of various complications in acute pancreatitis (AP). Hypertriglyceridemia dose-dependently elicits pancreatotoxicity and worsens the outcomes of AP. The role of hyperglycemia, as a toxic metabolic factor in the clinical course of AP, has not been examined yet. METHODS: We analyzed a prospective, international cohort of 2250 AP patients, examining associations between (1) glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), (2) on-admission glucose, (3) peak in-hospital glucose and clinically important outcomes (mortality, severity, complications, length of hospitalization (LOH), maximal C-reactive protein (CRP)). We conducted a binary logistic regression accounting for age, gender, etiology, diabetes, and our examined variables. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) was applied to detect the diagnostic accuracy of the three variables. RESULTS: Both on-admission and peak serum glucose are independently associated with AP severity and mortality, accounting for age, gender, known diabetes and AP etiology. They show a dose-dependent association with severity (p < 0.001 in both), mortality (p < 0.001), LOH (p < 0.001), maximal CRP (p < 0.001), systemic (p < 0.001) and local complications (p < 0.001). Patients with peak glucose >7 mmol/l had a 15 times higher odds for severe AP and a five times higher odds for mortality. We found a trend of increasing HbA1c with increasing LOH (p < 0.001), severity and local complications. CONCLUSIONS: On-admission and peak in-hospital glucose are independently and dose-dependently associated with increasing AP severity and mortality. In-hospital laboratory control of glucose and adequate treatment of hyperglycemia are crucial in the management of AP.

Blood glucose-related indicators are associated with in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) results in potentially harmful blood glucose fluctuations, affecting patient prognosis. This study aimed to explore the relationship between blood glucose-related indicators and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with AP. We extracted data on AP patients from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III database. Initial glucose (Glucose_initial), maximum glucose (Glucose_max), minimum glucose (Glucose_min), mean glucose (Glucose_mean), and glucose variability (glucose standard deviation [Glucose_SD] and glucose coefficient of variation [Glucose_CV]) were selected as blood glucose-related indicators. Logistic regression models and the Lowess smoothing curves were used to display the association between significant blood glucose-related indicators and in-hospital mortality. Survivors and non-survivors showed significant differences in Glucose_max, Glucose_mean, Glucose_SD, and Glucose_CV (P < 0.05). Glucose_max, Glucose_mean, Glucose_SD, and Glucose_CV were risk factors for in-hospital mortality in AP patients (OR > 1; P < 0.05). According to the Lowess smoothing curve, the overall trends of blood glucose-related indicators showed a non-linear correlation with in-hospital mortality. Glucose_max, Glucose_mean, Glucose_SD, and Glucose_CV were associated with in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with AP.

High-volume hemofiltration reduces short-term mortality with no influence on the incidence of MODS, hospital stay, and hospitalization cost in patients with severe-acute pancreatitis: A meta-analysis.

This study aimed to investigate the efficiency, safety and cost-efficiency of blood purification (BP) in treating patients with severe-acute pancreatitis (SAP). A literature search was conducted using PubMed, OVID, International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP), and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). A total of 11 prospective studies and 6 retrospective studies, which reported the mortality of 1279 SAP patients, were included for analysis. Decreased short-term mortality and incidence rate of infection were observed in the high-volume hemofiltration (HVHF) group, but not in patients treated with other types of BP. There was no significant difference in the incidence of multiple-organ dysfunction (MODS), duration of hospital stay, or cost of hospitalization between the BP and non-BP groups. The starting time point, substitution fluid flow rate, filter membrane type, hemofilter change interval, anticoagulation, and sustaining times of BP varied across studies. In conclusion, HVHF may reduce the short-term mortality (<4 weeks), not long-term mortality, of SAP patients by decreasing the incidence of infection, while other types of BP did not show a significant beneficial effect. Neither HVHF nor other BP patterns affect the duration of hospital stay, cost of hospitalization, or incidence of MODS in SAP patients.