Application of machine learning with large-scale data for an effective vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar in Japan.

Classical swine fever has been spreading across the country since its re-emergence in Japan in 2018. Gifu Prefecture has been working diligently to control the disease through the oral vaccine dissemination targeting wild boars. Although vaccines were sprayed at 14,000 locations between 2019 and 2020, vaccine ingestion by wild boars was only confirmed at 30% of the locations. Here, we predicted the vaccine ingestion rate at each point by Random Forest modeling based on vaccine dissemination data and created prediction surfaces for the probability of vaccine ingestion by wild boar using spatial interpolation techniques. Consequently, the distance from the vaccination point to the water source was the most important variable, followed by elevation, season, road density, and slope. The area under the curve, model accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for model evaluation were 0.760, 0.678, 0.661, and 0.685, respectively. Areas with high probability of wild boar vaccination were predicted in northern, eastern, and western part of Gifu. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation results showed that Kriging approach was more accurate than the Inverse distance weighting method. We emphasize that effective vaccination strategies based on epidemiological data are essential for disease control and that our proposed tool is also applicable for other wildlife diseases.

Analysis of effective spatial range of oral vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar.

Classical swine fever (CSF) re-emerged in Gifu Prefecture, central Japan, in September 2018 and is currently widespread in wild boar populations. Due to its widespread in wild boars, an oral mass vaccination strategy was initiated in March 2019, employing a commercial bait vaccine that is a live attenuated vaccine. To enhance the effectiveness of oral vaccination, it is crucial to determine the vaccine's effective spatial range. This understanding is essential for devising a comprehensive vaccination strategy, which should also include a preliminary investigation of wild boar habitats before vaccination. This study aimed to estimate the effective range of oral vaccination for wild boars against CSF by analyzing the geographical relationship between immune wild boars and vaccination points within the vaccination areas in Gifu Prefecture. This study utilized oral vaccination data from April 2021 to March 2022. The prevalence of CSF infections in wild boars remained below 5% in this period, suggesting limited disease transmission and immune wild boars were considered to be induced by the effect of vaccination. Two vaccination campaigns were conducted during this period, with almost 2000 vaccination points each. To investigate the factors associated with the intensity (i.e., density) of immune wild boar, the nearest distances to a vaccination point and to a susceptible wild boar were evaluated as explanatory variables. The Rhohat procedure and point process model were utilized to analyze the relationship between the intensity of immune wild boars and the explanatory variables. The point process model revealed a significant decrease in the intensity of immune wild boars when the distance from the nearest vaccination point exceeded 500 m, indicating that the effective spatial range of bait vaccination is within 500 m of the vaccination point. Although the distance to the nearest susceptible animal did not show significance in the model, Rhohat plots indicated that the intensity of immune wild boars decreased at distances greater than 1200 m from the nearest susceptible wild boar. This finding highlights the importance of investigating susceptible wild boar populations within a range of at least 1200 m from a vaccination point before implementation. The present study revealed the effective range of oral vaccination for wild boars against CSF and indicated the importance of investigating susceptible wild boar habitats around vaccination points before the implementation of vaccination. These findings may help improve the effectiveness of oral vaccinations.

Circulation of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) strains of bovine origin in China and India.

The classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a species member of the family Flaviviridae. CSFV is widely distributed in the world causing a severe impact on pig industry. This pathogen is considered restricted to domestic and wild suids. However, some reports from 2014 to 2018 showed the presence of the CFSV antigen in the bovine species. The virus was found in commercialized batches of fetal bovine serum (FBS) of Chinese origin and in bovine herds in in the provinces of Henan and Jiangsu, China, and in Tamil Nadu and Meghalaya, southern and north­eastern states of India, respectively. Detection was done using antigen capture ELISA and RT­PCR tests. In certain cases, animals with natural infection showed clinical signs and reproduction was also affected. Genetic characterization was performed considering the 5'­UTR sequences of the bovine strains. In addition, the entire CSFV E2 genomic region could be amplified from two positive animals. The bovine strains were genetically related to the Chinese CSFV live attenuated hog cholera lapinized vaccine (HCLV) strain used in pigs, sharing sequence characteristics. The vaccine strain HCLV was widely used in China to protect bovines and yaks from bovine viral diarrhea, and, as a possible consequence, inducing an adaptation in cattle and a further natural diffusion. Furthermore, a contaminant strain from China was genetically distant from all other previously described genotypes of the CSFV. This suggests also the occurrence of micro evolutive step in the species related to geographical segregation. These observations deserve attention and further investigations, especially relevant in countries where CSFV control and eradication strategies are applied.

Enhanced passive surveillance for early detection of African and classical swine fevers.

African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are transboundary animal diseases (TADs) of pigs. Much effort and resources are regularly put into preventing these diseases' introduction in free areas. Passive surveillance activities bring the highest chances for the early detection of TAD incursions because they are routinely and widely conducted at farms, and because these activities focus on the time between introduction and when the first sample is sent for diagnostic testing. The authors proposed the implementation of an enhanced passive surveillance (EPS) protocol based on collecting data through participatory surveillance actions using an objective and adaptable scoring system to aid the early detection of ASF or CSF at the farm level. The protocol was applied in two commercial pig farms for ten weeks in the Dominican Republic, which is a CSF- and ASF-infected country. This study was a proof of concept, based on the EPS protocol to aid detection of substantial variations in the risk score triggering testing. One of the followed farms had score variation, which triggered testing of the animals, although the test results were negative. The study enables assessment of some of the weaknesses associated with passive surveillance and provides lessons applicable to the problem. Results demonstrate the potential for overcoming some issues preventing the broad application of EPS protocols and suggest that standardised approaches may contribute to the early detection of CSF and ASF introductions.

La peste porcine africaine (PPA) et la peste porcine classique (PPC) sont des maladies animales transfrontalières touchant les porcs. De nombreux efforts et ressources sont régulièrement alloués pour prévenir l'introduction de ces maladies dans des zones indemnes. Les activités de surveillance passive offrent les meilleures perspectives de détection précoce des incursions de maladies animales transfrontalières parce qu'elles sont menées de manière systématique et exhaustive dans les élevages, et parce qu'elles se concentrent sur la période entre l'introduction de la maladie et le moment où le premier échantillon est envoyé au laboratoire pour analyse. Les auteurs proposent la mise en oeuvre d'un protocole de surveillance passive renforcée fondé sur la collecte de données via des actions de surveillance participative utilisant un système de notation objectif et adaptable, en vue d'une détection précoce de la PPA et de la PPC dans les élevages. Ce protocole a été appliqué en République dominicaine, pays infecté par la PPA et la PPC, dans deux élevages porcins commerciaux pendant dix semaines. Cette étude était destinée à valider le principe de la méthode et se fondait sur le protocole de surveillance passive renforcée pour mieux détecter les variations substantielles de la note de risque qui conduisent à tester les animaux. L'un des élevages suivis a présenté une variation de cette note, ce qui a conduit à tester les animaux mais les tests se sont révélés négatifs. L'étude permet d'évaluer certaines des faiblesses associées à la surveillance passive et apporte des enseignements applicables à ce problème. Les résultats illustrent le potentiel de l'approche à surmonter certaines des problématiques empêchant l'application extensive des protocoles de surveillance passive renforcée. Ils suggèrent également que des approches normalisées pourraient contribuer à la détection précoce des cas d'introduction de la PPC et de la PPA.

La peste porcina africana (PPA) y la peste porcina clásica (PPC) son enfermedades animales transfronterizas que afectan al cerdo. Periódicamente se dedican grandes esfuerzos y cuantiosos recursos a evitar que estas enfermedades penetren en zonas que están exentas de ellas. Las actividades de vigilancia pasiva son las más eficaces para detectar con prontitud toda incursión de enfermedades animales transfronterizas, no solo por la regularidad y amplitud con que se llevan a cabo en las explotaciones, sino también porque inciden específicamente en el intervalo entre la penetración de una enfermedad y el momento en que se envía la primera muestra para que sea sometida a pruebas de diagnóstico. Los autores propusieron que se aplicara un protocolo de vigilancia pasiva reforzada que reposaba en la obtención de datos mediante actividades de vigilancia participativa, empleando para ello un sistema objetivo y adaptable de puntuación que ayudaba a detectar con prontitud la presencia en las explotaciones de PPA o PPC. Dicho protocolo fue aplicado a lo largo de diez semanas en dos explotaciones porcinas industriales de la República Dominicana, país en el que ambas infecciones están presentes. El estudio, que sirvió para poner a prueba la idea, pasaba por la aplicación del protocolo de vigilancia pasiva reforzada para ayudar a detectar variaciones sustanciales de la puntuación del nivel de riesgo que activa la realización de pruebas. En una de las explotaciones estudiadas se produjo una variación de la puntuación, cosa que activó la realización de pruebas en los animales, aunque estas arrojaron resultado negativo. El estudio aquí descrito permite evaluar algunos de los puntos débiles de la vigilancia pasiva y extraer enseñanzas aplicables al problema. Los resultados demuestran que es posible salvar algunas de las dificultades que impiden la aplicación generalizada de protocolos de vigilancia pasiva reforzada y dejan pensar que quizá el uso de planteamientos normalizados pueda ayudar a detectar con prontitud los casos de penetración de PPC o PPA.

Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important re-emergent swine diseases worldwide. Despite concerted control efforts in the Andean countries, the disease remains endemic in several areas, limiting production and trade opportunities. In this study, we aimed to determine the risk factors and spatiotemporal implications associated with CSF in Ecuador. We analysed passive surveillance and vaccination campaign datasets from 2014 to 2020; Then, we structured a herd-level case-control study using a logistic and spatiotemporal Bayesian model. The results showed that the risk factors that increased the odds of CSF occurrence were the following: swill feeding (OR 8.53), time until notification (OR 2.44), introduction of new pigs during last month (OR 2.01) and lack of vaccination against CSF (OR 1.82). The spatiotemporal model showed that vaccination reduces the risk by 33%. According to the priority index, the intervention should focus on Morona Santiago and Los Rios provinces. In conclusion, the results highlight the complexity of the CSF control programs, the importance to improve the overall surveillance system and the need to inform decision-makers and stakeholders.

Classical swine fever (CSF): towards new challenges / La peste porcine classique (PPC) : vers de nouveaux défis

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious swine-specific disease which may have a huge economic impact for porcine production. CSF is caused by a virus belonging to the Pestivirus genus, which has expanded for the past 5 years with the discovery of new species whose genetic proximity to the CSF virus could further complicate laboratory diagnosis. The various forms of the disease, and in particular the increased frequency of attenuated forms, linked to an evolution of CSF virus strains towards a reduction in their virulence, delay clinical diagnosis. Thus, a long period may elapse before an outbreak is detected, allowing the virus to circulate longer, with the risk of spreading to distant geographical areas. Efforts must be maintained in terms of surveillance and diagnostic tools development in order to detect CSF virus infection early and thus limit the spread of the disease and facilitate control measures.

La peste porcine classique (PPC) est une maladie très contagieuse, spécifique des suidés, qui continue à constituer une menace pour la production porcine malgré un statut indemne de la plupart des pays de l'Union européenne. La PPC est causée par un virus de la famille des Flaviviridae appartenant au genre Pestivirus, en extension depuis les cinq dernières années avec la découverte de nouvelles espèces, notamment chez le porc ou autres animaux de rente dont la proximité génétique avec le virus de la PPC pourrait davantage compliquer le diagnostic de laboratoire. La diversité des formes de la maladie, et notamment la fréquence accrue des formes atténuées et inapparentes liée à une évolution des souches du virus de la PPC vers une réduction de leur virulence, retarde le diagnostic clinique. Ainsi, une longue période peut s'écouler avant la détection d'un foyer, permettant au virus de la PPC de circuler plus longuement, avec le risque de diffuser vers des zones géographiques éloignées des premiers cas d'infection. Les efforts doivent être maintenus en termes de surveillance et de développement d'outils de diagnostic afin de détecter précocement une infection par le virus de la PPC et ainsi limiter la propagation de la maladie et faciliter les mesures de contrôle.

Measuring impact of vaccination among wildlife: The case of bait vaccine campaigns for classical swine fever epidemic among wild boar in Japan.

Understanding the impact of vaccination in a host population is essential to control infectious diseases. However, the impact of bait vaccination against wildlife diseases is difficult to evaluate. The vaccination history of host animals is generally not observable in wildlife, and it is difficult to distinguish immunity by vaccination from that caused by disease infection. For these reasons, the impact of bait vaccination against classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar inhabiting Japan has not been evaluated accurately. In this study, we aimed to estimate the impact of the bait vaccination campaign by modelling the dynamics of CSF and the vaccination process among a Japanese wild boar population. The model was designed to estimate the impact of bait vaccination despite lack of data regarding the demography and movement of wild boar. Using our model, we solved the theoretical relationship between the impact of vaccination, the time-series change in the proportion of infected wild boar, and that of immunised wild boar. Using this derived relationship, the increase in antibody prevalence against CSF because of vaccine campaigns in 2019 was estimated to be 12.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 7.8-16.5). Referring to previous reports on the basic reproduction number (R0) of CSF in wild boar living outside Japan, the amount of vaccine distribution required for CSF elimination by reducing the effective reproduction number under unity was also estimated. An approximate 1.6 (when R0 = 1.5, target vaccination coverage is 33.3% of total population) to 2.9 (when R0 = 2.5, target vaccination coverage is 60.0% of total population) times larger amount of vaccine distribution would be required than the total amount of vaccine distribution in four vaccination campaigns in 2019.

Abattoir-based serological surveillance for transboundary and zoonotic diseases in cattle and swine in Cambodia: a pilot study in Phnom Penh province during 2019 and 2020.

A pilot animal disease surveillance program was implemented at four abattoirs in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, between October 2019 and January 2020. A total of 1141 samples were collected from 477 cattle and 664 swine. Serological testing was performed using commercial antibody ELISA kits for zoonotic and high-impact animal diseases, namely brucellosis, Q fever, classical swine fever (CSF), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and African swine fever (ASF). Only two samples tested positive for Brucella antibodies (0.2%, 95% CI 0.4-0.6, n = 1141). The seroprevalence of Q fever was 0.8% (95% CI 0.3-2.1, n = 477) in the cattle samples, while CSF, PRRS and ASF in pigs were 55.4% (95% CI 51.6-59.2, n = 655), 81.2% (95% CI 78.1-84.0, n = 655) and 2.6% (95% CI 1.6-4.1, n = 664), respectively. All 38 doubtful and 17 positive ASF antibody ELISA samples were negative when tested by real-time PCR. Univariate analyses demonstrated that the factor significantly associated with positive results of ASF was the abattoir location (p-value = 0.002). Based on logistic regression models, significant risk factors for CSF were province of origin (p-value = 1.7 × 10-6), abattoir (p-value = 3.6 × 10-11) and PRRS positivity (p-value = 0.004), and for PRRS were province of origin (p-value = 0.0004) and CSF positivity (p-value = 0.001). In conclusion, the seroprevalences of zoonotic diseases in this study were very low. The high prevalence of CSF and PRRS antibodies were most likely the result of vaccination. All ASF seropositive pigs, including those that gave equivocal results, originated from large-scale Cambodian-based commercial farms, as well as Thailand, which raises questions about possible illegal vaccination or low-pathogenicity ASF variants. The pilot abattoir serological surveillance program described here has the potential to provide a sentinel for incursions of novel and endemic pathogens, although further work is required to demonstrate its capacity to provide information on the longitudinal disease trends.

Seroprevalence of antibodies to classical swine fever virus and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in healthy pigs in Hunan Province, China.

Classical swine fever (CSF) and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) are responsible for major economic losses and represent a threat to the swine industry worldwide. Routine surveillance serology for CSF and PRRS viruses is critical to maintaining the health status of sow farms in Hunan Province, which is one of the top pig production provinces in China. The aim of our study was to investigate the serological statistics of CSF virus (CSFV) and PRRS virus (PRRSV) in Hunan Province. The cohort serum samples were collected from vaccinated and unvaccinated pigs. Our findings showed that the average rates of CSFV and PRRSV antibody seropositivity were 82.2% (95% CI: 80.1-84.3) and 84.8% (95% CI: 82.5-87.1), respectively, in the immunized group and that these rates were higher than those in the unvaccinated group (58.6% for CSFV and 47.8% for PRRSV). Additionally, the level of CSFV antibody in piglet serum declined gradually with age, whereas PRRSV-specific antibody level increased initially (1 to 2 weeks old) and then declined with age (2 to 4 weeks old). In summary, we investigated the difference in CSFV/PRRSV antibody levels among piglets at various weeks old (1 to 4 weeks) to further establish the duration of maternal immunity in piglets. In addition, routine monitoring of CSFV/PRRSV antibodies in immunized pigs was carried out to evaluate the efficacy of vaccination.

Pathogenicity of a novel classical swine fever LOM vaccine-derived virus isolated on Jeju Island, South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Reemergent local outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) occurred simultaneously in multiple pig farms on CSF-free Jeju Island, South Korea, in 2014 because of inadvertent injection of a commercial CSF (LOM) vaccine into pregnant sows. The LOM virus has since spread across the island and has become endemic in Jeju herds, raising concern about possible reversion to the virulence of the LOM vaccine. We previously isolated LOM-derived field CSF virus (CSFV) strains with unique insertion-deletion (INDEL) mutations in the 3'-untranslated region (UTR), designated LOM-derived Jeju 3'-UTR INDEL variants, from CSF-recurrent swine farms on Jeju Island in 2019. METHODS: The present study conducted animal experiments to investigate whether a 2019 emergent LOM 3'-UTR INDEL variant, KNU-1905, has reverted to a pathogenic form in conventional pigs (n = 10). RESULTS: Experimental animal infection showed that pigs inoculated with the commercial LOM vaccine strain developed no adverse effects compared to the sham-infected pigs. However, KNU-1905 displayed pathogenic characteristics in pigs, including clinical symptoms (e.g., lethargy, conjunctivitis, nasal discharge, and diarrhoea), weight loss, and gross lesions. Moreover, viremia, virus shedding in faeces and nasal fluids, and viral loads in various tissues of all the KNU-1905-infected pigs were highly significant, in contrast to those of the LOM-infected group in which CSFV RNA was detected only in the serum, nasal, and tonsil samples of one identical pig. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the LOM-derived field isolate with molecular variations induced clinical adverse events in pigs, which commonly shed considerable amounts of CSFV. This study provides evidence that the genetic evolution of the LOM-derived CSFV circulating on Jeju Island might have allowed the LOM vaccine to recover its primary prototype and that these variants might have induced chronic or persistent infection in pigs that can shed CSFV in field farms leading to a risk of transmission among pigs or farms in this former CSF-free region.

Epidemiological investigation and phylogenetic analysis of Classical Swine Fever virus in Yunnan province from 2015 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Classical swine fever virus (CSFV), the causative agent of classical swine fever (CFS), is a highly contagious disease that poses a serious threat to Chinese pig populations. OBJECTIVES: Many provinces of China, such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning provinces, have reported epidemics of CSFV, while the references to the epidemic of CSFV in Yunnan province are rare. This study examined the epidemic characteristics of the CSFV in Yunnan province. METHODS: In this study, 326 tissue samples were collected from different regions in Yunnan province from 2015 to 2021. A reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), sequences analysis, and phylogenetic analysis were performed for the pathogenic detection and analysis of these 326 clinical specimens. RESULTS: Approximately 3.37% (11/326) of specimens tested positive for the CSFV by RT-PCR, which is lower than that of other regions of China. Sequence analysis of the partial E2 sequences of eleven CSFV strains showed that they shared 89.0-100.0% nucleotide (nt) and 95.0-100.0% amino acid (aa) homology, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these novel isolates belonged to the subgenotypes 2.1c and 2.1d, with subgenotype 2.1c being predominant. CONCLUSIONS: The CSFV was sporadic in China's Yunnan province from 2015 to 2021. Both 2.1c and 2.1d subgenotypes were found in this region, but 2.1c was dominant.

Efficient oral vaccination program against classical swine fever in wild boar population.

Classical swine fever is a disease that infects wild boars and pigs and had a significant negative economic impact on the swine industry. Oral vaccination is an effective method for controlling classical swine fever. However, information on oral vaccination program has been limited, and its efficiency has not been clarified in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the seasonal variation in factors affecting the ingestion of oral vaccines by wild boars. The Gifu Prefecture oral vaccination program was initiated in March 2019, and by February 2021, six seasonal programs had been conducted. We investigated the relationship between the ingestion of oral vaccines by wild boar and pre-baiting, vaccination event, environmental and topographical factors in six vaccination events in three seasonal programs (summer 2019, winter 2019-2020, and spring 2020). This study showed that pre-baiting and the repeated vaccination events were more important factors for the ingestion of oral vaccines by wild boars than topographical and land use factors. Thus, it is a possibility that habitat selection of wild boars is irrelevant in increasing the feeding rate of wild boars on oral vaccines. Consequently, wildlife managers should not only conduct pre-baiting and repeated vaccination events, but also identify areas where wild boars are more abundant immediately prior to oral vaccination programs. To increase the effectiveness of vaccination, it is important for wildlife managers to first implement estimating wild boar density in their habitat areas, followed by efficient oral vaccination programs depending on their densities. Thereafter, they should specifically consider the influence of ingestion by other species and differences in feeding rates by age class.

Modelling control strategies against classical swine fever: Influence of traders and markets using static and temporal networks in Ecuador.

Pig farming in Ecuador represents an important economic and cultural sector, challenged by classical swine fever (CSF). Recently, the National Veterinary Service (NVS), has dedicated its efforts to control the disease by implementing pig identification, mandatory vaccination against CSF and movement control. Our objective was to characterise pig premises according to risk criteria, to model the effect of movement restriction strategies and to consider the temporal evolution of the network. Social network analysis (SNA), SIRS (susceptible, infected, recovered, susceptible) network modelling and temporal analysis were used. The network contained 751,003 shipments and 6 million pigs from 2017 to 2019. Participating premises consisted of 144,118 backyard farms, 138 industrial farms, 21,337 traders and 51 markets. The 10 most influential markets, in the Andean highlands, received between 500 and 4600 pigs each week. The 10 most influential traders made about 3 shipments with 17 pigs per week. Simulations without control strategy resulted in an average CSF prevalence of 14.4 %; targeted movement restriction reduced the prevalence to 7.2 %, while with random movement restriction it was 13 %. Targeting the top 10 national traders and markets and one of the high-risk premises in every parish was one of the best strategies with the surveillance infrastructure available, highlighting its major influence and epidemiological importance in the network. When comparing the static network with its temporal counterpart, causal fidelity (c = 0.62) showed a 38 % overestimation in the number of transmission paths, also traversing the network required 4.39 steps, lasting approximately 233 days. In conclusion, NVS surveillance strategies could be more efficient by targeting the most at-risk premises, and in particular, taking into account the temporal information would make the risk assessment much more precise. This information could contribute to implement risk-based surveillance reducing the time to eradicate CSF and other infectious animal diseases.

Evaluation of the economic impact of classical and African swine fever epidemics using OutCosT, a new spreadsheet-based tool.

African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are two major transboundary animal diseases of swine with important socioeconomic consequences at farm, subnational and national level. The objective of this study was to evaluate the direct cost of outbreaks and their control at country/regional level in four countries: namely CSF in Colombia in 2015-2016, the retrospective cost of ASF in the Philippines in 2019 and in a province of Vietnam in 2020 and a hypothetical ASF scenario in one region in North Macedonia, using the newly developed Outbreak Costing Tool (OutCosT). The tool calculates the costs of 106 different items, broken down by up to four types of farms, and by who assumes the cost (whether veterinary services, farmers or other stakeholders). The total cost of CSF in Colombia was US$ 3.8 million, of which 88% represented the cost of the vaccination campaign. For ASF, there were wide differences between countries: US$ 8,26,911 in Lao Cai (Vietnam), US$ 33,19,666 in North Macedonia and over US$ 58 million in the Philippines. While in the Philippines and Vietnam, 96-98% of the cost occurred in the affected farms, the highest expenditure in North Macedonia scenario was the movement control of the neighbouring and at-risk farms (77%). These important differences between countries depend on the spread of the disease, but also on the production systems affected and the measures applied. Apart from the financial cost, these diseases have other negative impacts, especially in the livelihoods of smallholder farms. The OutCosT tool also allows users to evaluate qualitatively other important aspects related to the epidemics, such as the impact on human health, the environment, animal welfare, socioeconomic vulnerability, trading and political response. OutCosT, which is a FAO corporate tool (available online at: https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/faoweb/animal-health/OutCosT_PIG.xlsx), can be an important tool to support country authorities to rapidly respond to a swine disease outbreak by estimating the associated costs and for advocacy purposes to mobilize resources at national or international levels.

Phylodynamics of classical swine fever virus in Brazil.

The classical swine fever virus is the etiologic agent of one of the diseases with the greatest impact on swine farming worldwide. An extensive area of Brazil is considered free of the disease, but some states in Northeast Brazil have registered outbreaks since 2001. The objective of this study was to analyze the genetic variations of the virus and its spread over time and space. Partial sequences of the viral E2 protein obtained from samples collected during the Brazilian outbreaks were compared with sequences from the GenBank database (NCBI). The results demonstrated the continuous presence of the virus in the state of Ceará, with diffusion to at least two other states. The Brazilian Northeast virus presents specific polymorphisms that separate it from viruses isolated in other countries.

Spatiotemporal analysis of reported classical swine fever outbreaks in China (2005-2018) and the influence of weather.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral disease that causes enormous economic losses in the swine industry in endemic countries including China. The aims of the current study were to describe the spatial distribution of annual CSF reports in China from 2005 to 2018, identify spatiotemporal clusters of annual CSF reports during this time period and to investigate the correlations between climate factors (rainfall, wind speed, temperature, vapour pressure and relative humidity) and the occurrence of CSF outbreaks. The strongest (Moran's index > 0.19), significant (p < .05) spatial clustering of reported outbreaks was observed during the first 4 years of the study period. This clustering was apparent in the four southern provinces of Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong and Yunnan. Five of the six significant (p ≤ .0001) spatiotemporal clusters occurred during the period 2005-2012. These were widely dispersed, with four clusters persisting for only 1 or 2 years, whereas two clusters (Jiangxi and Yunnan) persisted for 8 and 7 years, respectively. As a result of implementation of a national animal disease control plan and increasing coverage of vaccination, CSF outbreaks in China have generally been controlled and reduced, becoming sporadic in most provinces by 2018. We also confirmed that low relative humidity and high wind speed were significant weather variables associated with the occurrence of CSF. Furthermore, our study has confirmed that CSF is still endemic in some Chinese provinces, and we recommend that the national CSF control protocol be updated and standardized.

Assessing the geographic range of classical swine fever vaccinations by spatiotemporal modelling in Japan.

A classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic has been ongoing in Japan since September 2018. The outbreak started in Gifu Prefecture and involved 21 prefectures by the end of October 2020, posing a serious threat to pork industries. The present study was conducted to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of CSF in Japan and assess the geographic range of the CSF vaccination on pig farms. First infection dates were collected for wild boars and on swine farms by prefecture. A simple statistical model was used to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of CSF, describing the infection risk in wild boars and the subsequent transmission hazards to swine farms for 47 prefectures. Because the spatial transmission mechanisms and wild boar population dynamics involved substantial uncertainties, 16 models were applied to the empirical data. Estimated hazard parameters were used to predict the risk of infection on swine farms by 15 December 2020 to explicitly evaluate the governmental recommendation for vaccinations on pig farms by prefecture in light of the predicted infection risk in domestic pigs. The best-fit model for the wild boars indicated that transmission occurred via neighbouring prefectures and involved seasonality. The estimated conditional hazard was 0.008 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.001-0.014) per day for infections transmitted from wild boars to swine farms, and the median time from wild boar infection to swine farm infection was 129.4 days (95% CI: 69.5-935.0). Our prediction indicated that prefectures connected by land to those with wild boar infections had a higher risk of infection on swine farms. CSF transmission in Japan likely progressed diffusively via wild boar movement, and tracking wild boar infections may help determine the risk of infection on swine farms. Our risk map highlights the importance of deciding vaccination policies according to predicted risk.

Evaluation of the sensitivity of the classical swine fever surveillance system in two free zones in Colombia.

Infection with the classical swine fever virus (CSFV) causes a disease in pigs that ranges from a hyperacute form in which animals die in a few hours to subclinical disease. Due to this wide range of virulence, several complementary surveillance strategies should be implemented for the early detection of the disease. The objective of the present study was to determine the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect CSFV outbreaks in a free zone (Zone 1) and in a zone undergoing an eradication process (Zone 2) in Colombia. Stochastic scenario tree models were used to describe the population and surveillance structures and to determine the probability of CSFV detection. The total sensitivity of the surveillance system in the case of a single infected farm in Zone 1 was 31.4% (CI 95%: 7.2-54.1) and in the case of 5 infected farms was 85.2% (CI 95%: 67.3-93.7), while in Zone 2 the sensitivities were 27.8% (CI 95%: 6.4-55.1) and 82.5% (CI 95%: 65-92.9), respectively. The on-farm passive surveillance shows the highest sensitivity for detection of a single CSFV infected farm in both zones (22.8% in Zone 1 and 22.5% in Zone 2). The probability of detection was higher in a family / backyard premise than on a commercial farm in both zones. The passive surveillance at slaughterhouse had a sensitivity of 5.3% and 4.5% for the detection of a single infected farm in Zone 1 and 2, respectively. Active surveillance presented a range of sensitivity between 2.2% and 4.5%. In conclusion, the sensitivity of the surveillance in the two studied zones was quite high, one of reasons for this good sensitivity being the sentinel network based on the voluntary participation of 5,500 collaborators that were trained for the identification and notification of diseases of national interest.

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis of a classical swine fever virus outbreak in Japan (2018-2020).

After 26 years, another classical swine fever virus (CSFV) outbreak in domestic pigs and wild boars occurred in Japan 2018. Herein, we investigated the entry and the spatial dynamics of the CSFV outbreak in Japan using the nearly complete genomes of strains isolated from both wild boars and domestic pigs during this epidemic. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the Japanese lineage emerged 146 days (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 85-216 days) before the index case was detected. Based on epidemiological analysis, the period for the 95% HPD was 1 month earlier than the time of virus introduction into the index farm. The disease mainly spreads to the adjoining regions during the epidemic, with no spread to the nonadjacent regions. This result indicates that human activities, such as the movement of vehicles, contributed to the infection spread. As cases occurred in nonadjacent regions, the MRCA for the epidemic in the Saitama prefecture was estimated to have emerged 93 days before the date of detection in the initial farm in this region. Similarly, the MRCA for the epidemic in Okinawa prefecture, more than 1,300 km away from the other infected regions, was estimated to have emerged 34 days before the date of detection in the region's primary farm. Therefore, our results indicate that if exotic diseases emerge after a long period of absence or in a disease-free country, a longer period of time will elapse before detection, resulting in further spread. Additionally, subsequent infections occurring in regions distant from the original infected region will require less time for detection than in the original region. This study provides valuable insights into a CSFV outbreak that occurred in a previously CSFV-free country and thus beneficial in enhancing producers' awareness and allow for better preparation for infections.

Pig farm vaccination against classical swine fever reduces the risk of transmission from wild boar.

In 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) re-emerged in the Gifu Prefecture, central Japan, causing an on-going outbreak among wild boars and domestic pigs in the country. Consequently, oral vaccination for wild boar and compulsory vaccination for pig farms started in 2019. We have previously shown that, before vaccination in the Gifu Prefecture, the presence of CSF-infected wild boar near pig farms increased the risk of CSF transmission. This study aimed to re-evaluate the transmission risk from wild boars to pig farms under a vaccination program. The effectiveness of vaccination was evaluated by comparing the transmission risk estimated before and after the implementation of vaccinations. In this study, we focused on two affected areas, the Kanto (eastern Japan) and Kinki (west-central Japan) regions, in which eight of 11 infected farms were detected between the start of pig farm vaccinations and April 2021. Wild boar surveillance data from an area within a 50-km radius from the infected farms were used for analysis, consisting of 18,870 1-km grid cells (207 infected cells) in the Kanto region, and 15,677 cells (417 infected cells) in the Kinki region. The transmission rates in the post-vaccination period in the Kanto and Kinki regions were much lower than that in the pre-vaccination period in the Gifu Prefecture. The values of transmission kernels (h0, transmission rate at 0 km) in the Kanto and Kinki regions decreased to 1% of the transmission kernel in the pre-vaccination period. In the pre-vaccination period, the risk of infection within 300 days was almost 95 % when one infected grid cell was detected within 1 km of a pig farm. Meanwhile, in the post-vaccination period, the risk of infection within 300 days was approximately 5% when several infected cells were detected within 1 km of a pig farm. Considering the limited effect of oral vaccination for wild boar due to distribution limitations in the Kanto and Kinki regions, vaccination on pig farms may seems to have mainly reduced the transmission risk from wild boar. However, despite the implementation of vaccination, the risk of infection on pig farms remains present due to the immunity gap of weaning pigs. Therefore, strict biosecurity measures on pig farms and an appropriate vaccination program are required to prevent and control CSF spread.