Quantifying the impacts of drought and ecological restoration on net primary production changes in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

Net primary production (NPP) can regulate global climate change and carbon balance. Although scholars have qualitatively studied the influencing factors of NPP, few have quantified the contribution of different degrees of drought aggravation or mitigation and major land-use changes to NPP changes. Based on the temporal and spatial characteristics of NPP for 2000-2015 in the Chinese Loess Plateau, we quantified the contribution of drought, land use and land cover change (LUCC), and hydrothermal conditions to changes in NPP. Particularly, we analyzed the contribution of major land-use change and different drought levels to NPP. Our results showed that the 15-years average NPP was approximately 227 gC/m2 and decreased from southeast to northwest. Overall, NPP showed a linear increasing trend over the 15-years period. The results suggested that changes in hydrothermal conditions had the strongest impact on NPP (~61%), followed by drought (~33%), and land use and land cover change had the weakest impact (~1.4%). In particular, ~13% of the NPP decreases was affected by light drought aggravation, ~10% of the NPP decreases was affected by moderate drought aggravation, and ~0.3% was affected by the conversion of cropland to grassland or non-NPP main production land. Moreover, ~12.7% of the NPP increase was affected by light drought alleviation, ~9.4% was affected by moderate drought alleviation, and ~1.1% was affected by the conversion of grassland to cropland or forestland. The mechanisms underlying the effect of drought and land-use change on NPP were clarified and provide an important reference value for future research on the carbon cycle and regional ecological environmental restoration.

Asia's glaciers are a regionally important buffer against drought.

The high mountains of Asia-encompassing the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Pamir Alai, Kunlun Shan, and Tian Shan mountains-have the highest concentration of glaciers globally, and 800 million people depend in part on meltwater from them. Water stress makes this region vulnerable economically and socially to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water. Here I show that these glaciers provide summer meltwater to rivers and aquifers that is sufficient for the basic needs of 136 million people, or most of the annual municipal and industrial needs of Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During drought summers, meltwater dominates water inputs to the upper Indus and Aral river basins. Uncertainties in mountain precipitation are poorly known, but, given the magnitude of this water supply, predicted glacier loss would add considerably to drought-related water stress. Such additional water stress increases the risk of social instability, conflict and sudden, uncontrolled population migrations triggered by water scarcity, which is already associated with the large and rapidly growing populations and hydro-economies of these basins.

Physical, Mental, and Financial Impacts From Drought in Two California Counties, 2015.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate health impacts of drought during the most severe drought in California's recorded history with a rapid assessment method. METHODS: We conducted Community Assessments for Public Health Emergency Response during October through November 2015 in Tulare County and Mariposa County to evaluate household water access, acute stressors, exacerbations of chronic diseases and behavioral health issues, and financial impacts. We evaluated pairwise associations by logistic regression with pooled data. RESULTS: By assessment area, households reported not having running water (3%-12%); impacts on finances (25%-39%), property (39%-54%), health (10%-20%), and peace of mind (33%-61%); worsening of a chronic disease (16%-46%); acute stress (8%-26%); and considering moving (14%-34%). Impacts on finances or property were each associated with impacts on health and peace of mind, and acute stress. CONCLUSIONS: Drought-impacted households might perceive physical and mental health effects and might experience financial or property impacts related to the drought. Public Health Implications. Local jurisdictions should consider implementing drought assistance programs, including behavioral health, and consider rapid assessments to inform public health action.

Effects of drought on child health in Marsabit District, Northern Kenya.

This study uses five years of panel data (2009-2013) for Northern Kenya's Marsabit district to analyze the levels and extent of malnutrition among children aged five and under in that area. We measure drought based on the standardized normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and assess its effect on child health using mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). The results show that approximately 20 percent of the children in the study area are malnourished and a one standard deviation increase in NDVI z-score decreases the probability of child malnourishment by 12-16 percent. These findings suggest that remote sensing data can be usefully applied to develop and evaluate new interventions to reduce drought effects on child malnutrition, including better coping strategies and improved targeting of food aid.

The futures of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa: pathways of growth and change.

This paper reviews pastoralism in the Horn of Africa region with reference to the basic socio-economics of pastoralism, and the use of mobile livestock production to generate income and food for human consumption. The paper also examines long-term trends in pastoralist areas which, at first sight, appear to be contradictory. The first trend is the growth of a substantial domestic and export trade in livestock and meat across the region, driven largely by supplies from pastoralist areas and local and international demand. This trend indicates robust and responsive livestock production and marketing in pastoralist areas, despite recurrent drought, conflict and weak governance. In contrast, the second trend sees increasing levels of poverty and destitution in pastoralist areas, and continued high levels of human malnutrition. The co-existence of economic growth and increasing poverty in 'high-export' areas is explained by human population growth, drought, and the private control of pastures and water by wealthier producers. All of these factors combine to push poorer producers out of pastoralism. In areas with lower market orientation, other forms of declining land access are often evident, including the appropriation of land for mechanised farming, hydroelectric schemes, and bush encroachment. These changes, plus population growth and drought, also push people out of pastoralism. In all areas, pastoralism will continue to be the main economic activity but, at the same time, increasing numbers of people are seeking other livelihoods.

Cet article consacré au pastoralisme dans la Corne de l'Afrique au regard de ses principales caractéristiques socio-économiques décrit les utilisations du bétail nomade pour générer des revenus et produire des aliments destinés à la consommation humaine. Les auteurs analysent également les tendances à long terme des régions d'élevage pastoral, qui apparaissent à première vue comme étant contradictoires. La première tendance observée dans cette région a trait à la croissance d'un commerce important d'animaux et de viandes destiné aux marchés nationaux et d'exportation, sous l'impulsion conjointe de l'offre émanant des zones d'élevage pastoral et de la demande tant locale qu'internationale. Cette tendance démontre l'existence dans les zones d'élevage pastoral de capacités de production et commerciales robustes et adaptables, en dépit des épisodes récurrents de sécheresse, des conflits sociaux et d'une gouvernance déficiente. En revanche, la deuxième tendance révèle une aggravation croissante de la pauvreté et de la précarité dans les zones d'élevage pastoral, accompagnées d'une malnutrition importante et persistante dans les populations humaines. La coexistence d'une croissance économique et d'une plus grande pauvreté dans des zones à dominante exportatrice s'explique par la croissance démographique, par les sécheresses et par la mainmise des producteurs les plus riches sur les terres de pâture et sur l'eau. Ces facteurs cumulés détournent du pastoralisme les éleveurs les plus pauvres. Dans les régions à vocation exportatrice moins prononcée, le déclin de l'accès aux pâturages prend d'autres formes clairement identifiables, par exemple l'appropriation des terres en vue de leur exploitation mécanisée, la production d'énergie hydraulique ou l'extension de la brousse. Ces changements s'ajoutant à la croissance démographique et à la sécheresse rendent le pastoralisme beaucoup moins attractif pour les individus. Certes, le pastoralisme restera la principale activité économique des régions étudiées mais en même temps, de plus en plus de gens vont s'orienter vers d'autres moyens de subsistance.

Los autores pasan revista al pastoreo en la región del Cuerno de África, haciendo referencia a sus fundamentos socioeconómicos y a la producción de ganado móvil como medio de generar ingresos y alimentos para el consumo humano. Además, señalan la existencia de tendencias a largo plazo en las zonas de pastoreo que, a primera vista, parecen contradictorias. La primera es el auge de un comercio nacional o exportador de ganado y carne de considerables dimensiones en toda la región, impulsado básicamente por los suministros procedentes de las zonas de pastoreo y por la demanda local e internacional. Esta tendencia pone de manifiesto procesos robustos y flexibles de producción y comercialización de ganado en las zonas pastorales, pese a la recurrencia de sequías y conflictos y a la mala gestión de los asuntos públicos. La segunda tendencia, en acusado contraste, pone de manifiesto niveles crecientes de pobreza e indigencia en las zonas de pastoreo y niveles constantemente elevados de malnutrición humana. La concurrencia de crecimiento económico y pobreza en aumento en zonas eminentemente exportadoras se explica por el crecimiento de la población humana, las sequías y el control privado de los pastos y el agua que ejercen los ganaderos más pudientes. Todos estos factores se combinan para expulsar del pastoreo a los productores pobres. En zonas menos orientadas hacia el mercado aparecen a menudo otras causas de acceso decreciente a la tierra, como la apropiación de suelo para la producción agrícola mecanizada, la instalación de centrales hidroeléctricas o el avance de la maleza. Estos cambios, sumados al crecimiento demográfico y a la sequía, también inducen a las personas a dejar el pastoreo. Y aunque este seguirá siendo la principal actividad económica en todas las zonas, cada vez hay más gente que busca otras formas de ganarse la vida.

Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. RESULTS: The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. CONCLUSION: This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Unconditional cash transfers for assistance in humanitarian disasters: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) are a common social protection intervention that increases income, a key social determinant of health, in disaster contexts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of UCTs in improving health services use, health outcomes, social determinants of health, health care expenditure, and local markets and infrastructure in LMICs. We also compared the relative effectiveness of UCTs delivered in-hand with in-kind transfers, conditional cash transfers, and UCTs paid through other mechanisms. SEARCH METHODS: We searched 17 academic databases, including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (The Cochrane Library 2014, Issue 7), MEDLINE, and EMBASE between May and July 2014 for any records published up until 4 May 2014. We also searched grey literature databases, organisational websites, reference lists of included records, and academic journals, as well as seeking expert advice. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials (RCTs), as well as cohort, interrupted time series, and controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs) on UCTs in LMICs. Primary outcomes were the use of health services and health outcomes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently screened all potentially relevant records for inclusion criteria, extracted the data, and assessed the included studies' risk of bias. We requested missing information from the study authors. MAIN RESULTS: Three studies (one cluster-RCT and two CBAs) comprising a total of 13,885 participants (9640 children and 4245 adults) as well as 1200 households in two LMICs (Nicaragua and Niger) met the inclusion criteria. They examined five UCTs between USD 145 and USD 250 (or more, depending on household characteristics) that were provided by governmental, non-governmental or research organisations during experiments or pilot programmes in response to droughts. Two studies examined the effectiveness of UCTs, and one study examined the relative effectiveness of in-hand UCTs compared with in-kind transfers and UCTs paid via mobile phone. Due to the methodologic limitations of the retrieved records, which carried a high risk of bias and very serious indirectness, we considered the body of evidence to be of very low overall quality and thus very uncertain across all outcomes.Depending on the specific health services use and health outcomes examined, the included studies either reported no evidence that UCTs had impacted the outcome, or they reported that UCTs improved the outcome. No single outcome was reported by more than one study. There was a very small increase in the proportion of children who received vitamin or iron supplements (mean difference (MD) 0.10 standard deviations (SDs), 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06 to 0.14) and on the child's home environment, as well as clinically meaningful, very large reductions in the chance of child death (hazard ratio (HR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.66) and the incidence of severe acute malnutrition (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.80). There was also a moderate reduction in the number of days children spent sick in bed (MD - 0.36 SDs, 95% CI - 0.62 to - 0.10). There was no evidence for any effect on the proportion of children receiving deworming drugs, height for age among children, adults' level of depression, or the quality of parenting behaviour. No adverse effects were identified. The included comparisons did not examine several important outcomes, including food security and equity impacts.With regard to the relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with a food transfer providing a relatively high total caloric value, there was no evidence that a UCT had any effect on the chance of child death (HR 2.27, 95% CI 0.69 to 7.44) or severe acute malnutrition (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.99). A UCT paid in-hand led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the household dietary diversity score, compared with the same UCT paid via mobile phone (difference-in-differences estimator 0.43 scores, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.80), but there was no evidence for an effect on social determinants of health, health service expenditure, or local markets and infrastructure. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Additional high-quality evidence (especially RCTs of humanitarian disaster contexts other than droughts) is required to reach clear conclusions regarding the effectiveness and relative effectiveness of UCTs for improving health services use and health outcomes in humanitarian disasters in LMICs.

Climate, water and tourism: causes and effects of droughts associated with urban development and tourism in Benidorm (Spain).

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between climate, tourism and water in Benidorm (Spain), an international icon of Fordist tourism (mass tourism). In particular, we have studied the causes and effects of the water supply droughts Benidorm has suffered since becoming a major holiday destination. For this purpose, we consulted the local press in Benidorm over the period 1969-2003. Using qualitative and quantitative geographical techniques, we found that the water supply in the area has managed to keep up with rapidly increasing demand, with only occasional imbalances and periods of crisis. We focused in particular on the causes and effects of the water supply crisis of 1978, a moment of great uncertainty in the history of Benidorm as a holiday resort. We also examined the influence of atmospheric conditions on precipitation levels and how these precipitation levels affect the water supply. Our results highlight the importance of intense rainfall episodes associated with easterly winds, which provided large inputs for Benidorm's water supply system (Marina Baja Water Consortium). We also found that the water supply crisis of 1978 resulted in serious economic losses for Benidorm and damaged its image as a holiday destination and that the city is now less vulnerable to variations in the climate, as a result of its search for new water resources (both surface and ground water resources and from other nonconventional sources).

Improving index-based drought insurance in varying topography: evaluating basis risk based on perceptions of Nicaraguan hillside farmers.

This paper discusses a methodology to model precipitation indices and premium prices for index-based drought insurance for smallholders. Spatial basis risk, which is borne by the insured, is a problem, especially in variable topography. Also, site-specific drought risk needs to be estimated accurately in order to offer effective insurance cover and ensure financial sustainability of the insurance scheme. We explore farmers' perceptions on drought and spatial climate variability and draw conclusions concerning basis risk with regards to the proposed methodology. There are technically many options to represent natural heterogeneity in index insurance contracts while serving the customer adequately and keeping transaction costs low.