The aquaculture disease network model (AquaNet-Mod): A simulation model to evaluate disease spread and controls for the salmonid industry in England and Wales.

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed.

Viral Haemorrhagic Septicemia Virus (VHSV) Isolated from Atlantic Herring, Clupea harengus, Causes Mortality in Bath Challenge on Juvenile Herring.

Viral hemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) has been demonstrated to cause high mortalities in a wide range of teleosts, farmed as well as wild. In Europe, VHSV of genotypes Ib, Id, II, and III have been detected in wild fish, including Atlantic herring Clupea harengus, but disease outbreaks have not been observed in Atlantic herring and the effects on wild stocks are not well documented. Here, we have tested two VHSV isolates from herring (genotypes Ib and III, from the western coasts of Norway and Denmark, respectively) in a challenge experiment with herring (mean weight 2.59 g, SD 0.71 g) caught on the west coast of Denmark. The Norwegian genotype Ib isolate (NO-F-CH/2009) showed an accumulated mortality of 47% compared to 6% mortality with the Danish genotype III isolate 4p168 and zero in the unchallenged control group. In both groups, we found positive rt-RT-PCR and positive immunohistochemistry of VHSV from days 6 and 8 onward. With both isolates, the organs mainly affected were the heart and kidney. The results demonstrate the susceptibility of Atlantic herring to VHSV, and both genotypes gave pathological findings in several organs. Genotype III showed a low mortality rate, and the importance of this genotype for herring is therefore not determined. Genotype Ib showed both high prevalence and mortality, and this genotype is therefore likely to have a negative effect on wild Atlantic herring stocks. Further examinations to determine how VHSV can affect wild Atlantic herring stocks are needed.

Genomic and immunogenic changes of Piscine novirhabdovirus (Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus) over its evolutionary history in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

A unique and highly virulent subgenogroup (-IVb) of Piscine novirhabdovirus, also known as Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus (VHSV), suddenly appeared in the Laurentian Great Lakes, causing large mortality outbreaks in 2005 and 2006, and affecting >32 freshwater fish species. Periods of apparent dormancy have punctuated smaller and more geographically-restricted outbreaks in 2007, 2008, and 2017. In this study, we conduct the largest whole genome sequencing analysis of VHSV-IVb to date, evaluating its evolutionary changes from 48 isolates in relation to immunogenicity in cell culture. Our investigation compares genomic and genetic variation, selection, and rates of sequence changes in VHSV-IVb, in relation to other VHSV genogroups (VHSV-I, VHSV-II, VHSV-III, and VHSV-IVa) and with other Novirhabdoviruses. Results show that the VHSV-IVb isolates we sequenced contain 253 SNPs (2.3% of the total 11,158 nucleotides) across their entire genomes, with 85 (33.6%) of them being non-synonymous. The most substitutions occurred in the non-coding region (NCDS; 4.3%), followed by the Nv- (3.8%), and M- (2.8%) genes. Proportionally more M-gene substitutions encoded amino acid changes (52.9%), followed by the Nv- (50.0%), G- (48.6%), N- (35.7%) and L- (23.1%) genes. Among VHSV genogroups and subgenogroups, VHSV-IVa from the northeastern Pacific Ocean has shown the fastest substitution rate (2.01x10-3), followed by VHSV-IVb (6.64x10-5) and by the VHSV-I, -II and-III genogroups from Europe (4.09x10-5). A 2016 gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) from Lake Erie possessed the most divergent VHSV-IVb sequence. The in vitro immunogenicity analysis of that sample displayed reduced virulence (as did the other samples from 2016), in comparison to the original VHSV-IVb isolate (which had been traced back to 2003, as an origin date). The 2016 isolates that we tested induced milder impacts on fish host cell innate antiviral responses, suggesting altered phenotypic effects. In conclusion, our overall findings indicate that VHSV-IVb has undergone continued sequence change and a trend to lower virulence over its evolutionary history (2003 through present-day), which may facilitate its long-term persistence in fish host populations.

Widespread Seropositivity to Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus (VHSV) in Four Species of Inland Sport Fishes in Wisconsin.

Serological assays were conducted for anti-viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) antibodies in four species of fish in Wisconsin (Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus, Brown Trout Salmo trutta, Northern Pike Esox lucius, and Walleye Sander vitreus) to examine spatial and temporal distributions of exposure. Sera were tested for non-neutralizing anti-nucleocapsid antibodies to VHSV by blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results (percent inhibition [%I]) were analyzed for differences among species, across geographic distance, and among water management units. Positive fish occurred in 37 of 46 inland water bodies tested, including in water bodies far from reported outbreak events. Using highly conservative species-specific thresholds (mean %I of presumptive uninfected fish + 2 SDs), 4.3% of Bluegill, 13.4% of Brown Trout, 19.3% of Northern Pike, and 18.3% of Walleye tested positive for VHSV antibodies by ELISA. Spatial patterns of seropositivity and changes in %I between sampling years were also analyzed. These analyses explore how serology might be used to understand VHSV distribution and dynamics and ultimately to inform fisheries management.

Investigation of round goby viral haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreak in New York.

Eleven viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb isolates were sequenced, and their genetic variation explored to determine the source of a VHS outbreak on the eastern shore of Cayuga Lake. An active fish kill of round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus, Pallas) was intensively sampled at King Ferry, NY and nearby Long Point State Park in May 2017. Gross lesions observed on 67 moribund round gobies and two rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris, Rafinesque) included moderately haemorrhagic internal organs and erythematous areas on the head, flank, and fins. RT-qPCR tests for VHSV were positive for all 69 fish. Viral isolation on epithelioma papulosum cyprinid cells showed cytopathic effect characteristic of VHSV for six round goby samples from King Ferry. The complete nucleotide sequence of the VHSV IVb genomes of five Cayuga Lake round goby isolates were derived on an Illumina platform along with 2017 VHSV IVb isolates from round gobies collected from the following: Lake Erie near Dunkirk, NY; the St. Lawrence River near Clayton and Cape Vincent, NY; and Lake St. Lawrence near Massena, NY. The phylogenetic tree created from these aligned sequences and four other complete VHSV IVb genomes shows Cayuga Lake isolates are closely related to the Lake Erie isolates.

Improvement of a diagnostic procedure in surveillance of the listed fish diseases IHN and VHS.

Infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN) and viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) are OIE-listed and notifiable viral fish diseases which are controlled by eradication and surveillance programmes globally. The present study provides improved RT-qPCR procedures based on recently described OIE protocols. Improvements comprise the design of a new TaqMan® probe, replacing a TaqMan® MGB probe that turned out to show impaired binding. Reason for this is SNPs detected in the nucleoprotein N gene sequences of IHNV strains targeted by the RT-qPCR. Furthermore, the IHNV and VHSV RT-qPCR assays were realized as one-step and one-run procedures supplemented by an endogenous control system. The IHNV and VHSV RT-qPCR assays are characterized by a technical sensitivity of 19 and 190 gene equivalents (cRNA) and an analytical sensitivity of 2-7 and 13 TCID50 /ml, respectively. For verification purposes, 105 IHNV and 165 VHSV isolates and several non-targeted viral and bacterial pathogens were included and returned adequate results. However, in field samples divergent results left 14 samples of 154 undetected for IHNV and one sample of 127 for VHSV using cell culture. The study shows that RT-qPCR assays ensure facilitated and reliable testing on IHNV and VHSV in eradication and surveillance programmes.

Comparative susceptibilities and immune reactions of wild and cultured populations of Caspian trout Salmo trutta caspius to VHSV.

Caspian trout Salmo trutta caspius is an endangered subspecies of brown trout Salmo trutta which is native to the Caspian Sea. Restocking programmes have been established, but recent introduction of the rhabdovirus viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) into Iranian rainbow trout farms connected to waterbodies supporting wild Caspian trout may represent an additional threat to the declining stock. The susceptibility of wild and cultured populations of this endemic subspecies was demonstrated by performing controlled VHSV infection experiments (both by bath and injection challenges). Subsequently, VHSV infection in exposed fish was confirmed (CPE and quantitative PCR), virus levels were measured, and regulation of immune genes in exposed fish was investigated with a focus on the genes encoding IL-8, IFNγ, TGFß, TNFα, SAA, C3-4, CD8α, IgM, MHC I, MHC II, iNOS and IGF-1. The presence of IgM-, CD8α- and MHC II-positive cells in host organs was visualized by immunohistochemistry. Both wild and cultured trout strains proved to be VHSV-susceptible following experimental challenge, but the mortality curves and associated regulation of immune-related genes differed between the 2 trout types. Implications of the results for future management of Caspian trout populations are discussed.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV Id) infections are detected more consistently using syndromic vs. active surveillance.

The eradication of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV Id) from Finnish brackish-water rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss farms located in the restriction zone in the Province of Åland, Baltic Sea, failed several times in the 2000s. The official surveillance programme was often unable to find VHSV-positive populations, leading to the misbelief in the fish farming industry that virus eradication could be achieved. The ability of 3 other surveillance programmes to detect infected fish populations was compared with the official programme. One programme involved syndromic surveillance based on the observation of clinical disease signs by fish farmers, while 2 programmes comprised active surveillance similar to the official programme, but included increased sampling frequencies and 2 additional tests. The syndromic surveillance concentrated on sending in samples for analysis when any sign of a possible infectious disease at water temperatures below 15°C was noticed. This programme clearly outperformed active surveillance. A real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction method proved to be at least as sensitive as virus isolation in cell culture in detecting acute VHSV infections. An ELISA method was used to test fish serum for antibodies against VHSV. The ELISA method may be a useful tool in VHSV eradication for screening populations during the follow-up period, before declaring an area free of infection.

Validation of a model for ranking aquaculture facilities for risk-based disease surveillance.

A semi-quantitative model for risk ranking of aquaculture facilities in Switzerland with regard to the introduction and spread of Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) and Infectious Haematopoietic Necrosis (IHN) was developed in a previous study (Diserens et al., 2013). The objective of the present study was to validate this model using data collected during field visits on aquaculture sites in four Swiss cantons compared to data collected through a questionnaire in the previous study. A discrepancy between the values obtained with the two different methods was found in 32.8% of the parameters, resulting in a significant difference (p<0.001) in the risk classification of the facilities. As data gathered exclusively by means of a questionnaire are not of sufficient quality to perform a risk-based surveillance of aquaculture facilities a combination of questionnaires and farm inspections is proposed. A web-based reporting system could be advantageous for the factors which were identified as being more likely to vary over time, in particular for factors considering fish movements, which showed a marginally significant difference in their risk scores (p≥0.1) within a six- month period. Nevertheless, the model proved to be stable over the considered period of time as no substantial fluctuations in the risk categorisation were observed (Kappa agreement of 0.77).Finally, the model proved to be suitable to deliver a reliable risk ranking of Swiss aquaculture facilities according to their risk of getting infected with or spreading of VHS and IHN, as the five facilities that tested positive for these diseases in the last ten years were ranked as medium or high risk. Moreover, because the seven fish farms that were infected with Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis (IPN) during the same period also belonged to the risk categories medium and high, the classification appeared to correlate with the occurrence of this third viral fish disease.

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Phylogenetic analysis of the glycoprotein gene of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus from Iranian trout farms points towards a common European origin.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV), a member of family Rhabdoviridae and genus Novirhabdoviridae, causes mortality in numerous marine and freshwater hosts located in northern hemisphere. To evaluate the genetic diversity of VHSV from the North and South West of Iran, the sequences of a 1483bp nt region of the glycoprotein gene were determined for four Iranian isolates. These sequences were analysed to evaluate their genetic relatedness with 86 worldwide isolates representing the four known genogroups of VHSV. Phylogenetic analysis by nucleotide sequences showed that all the VHSV isolates studied were closest related to the 19 fresh water strains from Germany grouped within the European genogroup Ia-2. This finding indicates that Iranian VHSV most likely was introduced to Iran by the movement of contaminated fish fry from a source in Europe.

Isolation and identification of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) from farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in Iran.

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is a rhabdovirus that causes one of the most important fish diseases in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) production industry. During the present study from October 2014 to July 2015, the virus causing viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) was isolated and identified in rainbow trout farms from five of sixteen farms experiencing mass mortalities in six provinces of Iran with major trout production. Cumulative mortalities at VHSV-positive farms ranged from 30 to 70%. Clinical signs of disease included exophthalmia, petechial hemorrhages in the mandible and around the eyes, a swollen abdomen and darkening of the integument, widespread petechiae of the musculature and pyloric regions, severe congestion of the kidney, and pale enlarged livers. In addition, histopathologic examinations of tissues showed severe lesions in muscle, kidney and liver, which were compatible with those already described for VHS. Furthermore, homogenates tissues of diseased fish induced cytopathic effects (CPE) in CHSE-214 cells, and confirmatory diagnosis of VHS was made by RT-PCR reactions. To our knowledge, this is the first report of isolation and identification of VHSV from farmed trout in Iran, which may have originated from Europe.

Routine clinical inspections in Norwegian marine salmonid sites: A key role in surveillance for freedom from pathogenic viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS).

Since the mid-1980s, clinical inspections of aquaculture sites carried out on a regular basis by authorized veterinarians and fish health biologists (known as fish health services: FHS) have been an essential part of aquatic animal health surveillance in Norway. The aims of the present study were (1) to evaluate the performance of FHS routine clinical inspections for the detection of VHS and (2) to explore the effectiveness of risk-based prioritisation of FHS inspections for demonstrating freedom from VHS in marine salmonid sites in Norway. A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate site sensitivity (SeS), population sensitivity (SeP), and probability of freedom (PFree). The estimation of SeS takes into consideration the probability that FHS submit samples if a site is infected, the probability that a sample is tested if submitted, the effective probability of infection in fish with clinical signs, laboratory test sensitivity, and the number of tested samples. SeP and PFree were estimated on a monthly basis over a 12 month period for six alternative surveillance scenarios and included the risk factors: region, species, area production density, and biosecurity level. Model results indicate that the current surveillance system, based on routine inspections by the FHS has a high capability for detecting VHS and that there is a high probability of freedom from VHS in Norwegian marine farmed salmonids (PFree >95%). Sensitivity analysis identified the probabilities that samples are submitted and submitted samples are tested, as the most influential input variables. The model provides a supporting tool for evaluation of potential changes in the surveillance strategy, and can be viewed as a platform for similar exotic viral infectious diseases in marine salmonid farming in Norway, if they share similar risk factors.

A survey of wild marine fish identifies a potential origin of an outbreak of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia in wrasse, Labridae, used as cleaner fish on marine Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., farms.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) was isolated from five species of wrasse (Labridae) used as biological controls for parasitic sea lice predominantly, Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer, 1837), on marine Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., farms in Shetland. As part of the epidemiological investigation, 1400 wild marine fish were caught and screened in pools of 10 for VHSV using virus isolation. Eleven pools (8%) were confirmed VHSV positive from: grey gurnard, Eutrigla gurnardus L.; Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus L.; Norway pout, Trisopterus esmarkii (Nilsson); plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L.; sprat, Sprattus sprattus L. and whiting, Merlangius merlangus L. The isolation of VHSV from grey gurnard is the first documented report in this species. Nucleic acid sequencing of the partial nucleocapsid (N) and glycoprotein (G) genes was carried out for viral characterization. Sequence analysis confirmed that all wild isolates were genotype III the same as the wrasse and there was a close genetic similarity between the isolates from wild fish and wrasse on the farms. Infection from these local wild marine fish is the most likely source of VHSV isolated from wrasse on the fish farms.

Screening for viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus in marine fish along the Norwegian coastal line.

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) infects a wide range of marine fish species. To study the occurrence of VHSV in wild marine fish populations in Norwegian coastal waters and fjord systems a total of 1927 fish from 39 different species were sampled through 5 research cruises conducted in 2009 to 2011. In total, VHSV was detected by rRT-PCR in twelve samples originating from Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), whiting (Merlangius merlangus) and silvery pout (Gadiculus argenteus). All fish tested positive in gills while four herring and one silvery pout also tested positive in internal organs. Successful virus isolation in cell culture was only obtained from one pooled Atlantic herring sample which shows that today's PCR methodology have a much higher sensitivity than cell culture for detection of VHSV. Sequencing revealed that the positive samples belonged to VHSV genotype Ib and phylogenetic analysis shows that the isolate from Atlantic herring and silvery pout are closely related. All positive fish were sampled in the same area in the northern county of Finnmark. This is the first detection of VHSV in Atlantic herring this far north, and to our knowledge the first detection of VHSV in silvery pout. However, low prevalence of VHSV genotype Ib in Atlantic herring and other wild marine fish are well known in other parts of Europe. Earlier there have been a few reports of disease outbreaks in farmed rainbow trout with VHSV of genotype Ib, and our results show that there is a possibility of transfer of VHSV from wild to farmed fish along the Norwegian coast line. The impact of VHSV on wild fish is not well documented.

Spatio-temporal risk factors for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) in Danish aquaculture.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) is an economically very important fish disease in the northern hemisphere. When the VHS virus was first isolated in Denmark 50 yr ago, more than 80% of the 800 Danish fish farms were considered to be infected, but vigilant surveillance and eradication programmes led to a drastic reduction in prevalence, and finally, to complete eradication of VHS. Denmark thus obtained official status as an approved VHS-free member state within the European Union in November 2013. Data on outbreaks within the country have been collected since 1970, and here we combined these data with the geographical coordinates of fish farms to identify clusters of high disease prevalence and other risk factors. Our analyses revealed a statistically significant cluster in the southwestern part of the country, which persisted throughout the study period. Being situated within such a cluster was a significant risk factor for VHS. For freshwater rainbow trout farms situated inland, the number of upstream farms was a determining risk factor for VHS, as was distance to the nearest VHS-infected farm and year. Whether the farm used fresh or marine water in production did not have any influence on the risk of VHS, when accounting for whether the farm was situated inside a cluster of high risk. This information can be used when implementing risk-based surveillance programmes.

Survey of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in wild fishes in the southeastern Black Sea.

Species diversity in the Black Sea ecosystem has been declining rapidly over the last 2 decades. To assess the occurrence and distribution of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) in various wild fish species, a wild marine fish survey was carried out in 2009, 2010, and 2011. The pooled or individual samples of kidney, liver, and spleen of 5025 specimens, belonging to 17 fish species, were examined virologically using cell culture. The cells showing cytopathic effects (CPE) were subjected to ELISA and multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-mPCR), for VHSV and infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV), after blind passaging to determine the virus species causing CPE. The virus species and possibility of co-infection with IPNV were verified by the RT-mPCR developed in this study. Twelve species of fish (pontic shad Alosa immaculata, red mullet Mullus barbatus, three-bearded rockling Gaidropsarus vulgaris, black scorpionfish Scorpaena porcus, Mediterranean horse mackerel Trachurus mediterraneus, whiting Merlangius merlangus euxinus, stargazer Uranoscopus scaber, pilchard Sardina pilchardus, garfish Belone belone, round goby Neogobius melanostomus, thornback ray Raja clavata, and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus) tested positive for VHSV Genotype Ie (VHSV-Ie). Except whiting, pilchard, and round goby, the rest are new host records for VHSV. The extent and spread of VHSV-Ie was significantly higher among bottom fish than among pelagic fish. Sensitivity and specificity of the RT-mPCR developed was sufficiently high, suggesting that this assay may be used for both diagnostic and surveillance testing. According to the RT-mPCR results, IPNV was not present in wild fish. These results support the hypothesis that the VHSV-Ie genotype, highly prevalent among fish species in the Black Sea, may have a serious impact on the population dynamics of wild fish stocks.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia.

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia IVb status in the United States: inferences from surveillance activities and regional context.

The United States (U.S.) response to viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) IVb emergence in the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL) included risk-based surveillance for cost-effective decision support regarding the health of fish populations in open systems. All U.S. VHSV IVb isolations to date derive from free-ranging fish from GL States. Most originate in the region designated by US Geological Survey hydrologic unit code (HUC) 04, with the exception of two detections in neighboring Upper Mississippi (HUC 05) and Ohio (HUC 07) regions. For States outside the GL system, disease probability was assessed using multiple evidence sources. None substantiated VHSV IVb absence using surveillance alone, in part due to the limited temporal relevance of data in open systems. However, Bayesian odds risk-based analysis of surveillance and population context, coupled with exclusions where water temperatures likely preclude viral replication, achieved VHSV IVb freedom assurance for 14 non-GL States by the end of 2012, with partial evidence obtained for another 17 States. The non-GL region (defined as the aggregate of 4-digit HUCs located outside of GL States) met disease freedom targets for 2012 and is projected to maintain this status through 2016 without additional active surveillance. Projections hinge on continued basic biosecurity conditions such as movement restrictions and passive surveillance. Areas with navigable waterway connections to VHSV IVb-affected HUCs (and conducive water temperatures) should receive priority for resources in future surveillance or capacity building efforts. However, 6 years of absence of detections in non-GL States suggests that existing controls limit pathogen spread, and that even spread via natural pathways (e.g., water movement or migratory fish) appears contained to the Great Lakes system. This report exemplifies the cost-effective use of risk-based surveillance in decision support to assess and manage aquatic animal population health in open systems.

Do imports of rainbow trout carcasses risk introducing viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus into England and Wales?

A qualitative import risk assessment was undertaken to assess the likelihood of introduction and establishment of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype 1a in England and Wales (E&W), via the processing of imported rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) carcasses from continental Europe. The likelihood was estimated for one import from an infected farm. Four main routes by which susceptible populations could be exposed to VHSV via processing waste were considered: (i) run-off from solid waste to watercourses, (ii) contamination of birds or rodents with VHSV by scavenging solid waste, (iii) discharge of liquid waste to mains drainage, and (iv) discharge of liquid waste directly to watercourses. Data on the biophysical characteristics of VHSV, its epidemiology, fish processing practices and waste management were collected. Likelihoods for each step of the four pathways were estimated. Pathway 4 (discharge of liquid waste to a watercourse) was judged as the most likely to result in infection of susceptible individuals. Levels of virus entering the aquatic environment via pathways 1-3 were judged to be many times lower than pathway 4 due mainly to the treatment of solid waste (pathways 1 and 2) and high levels of dilution (pathways 1, 2 and 3). Thirty-four trout farms process fish, of which seven have imported carcasses for processing. Compared with other processing facilities, on-farm processing results in a higher likelihood of VHSV exposure and establishment via all four pathways. Data availability was an issue; the analysis was particularly constrained by a lack of data on the prevalence of VHSV in Europe, volume of trade of carcasses into the UK and processing practices in E&W. It was concluded that the threat of VHSV introduction into E&W could be reduced by treatment of liquid effluent from processing plants and by sourcing carcasses for on-farm processing only from approved VHSV free areas.