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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 856(Pt 2): 159294, 2023 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36209884

RESUMO

Few investigations have assessed the impact of short-term ambient temperature change on pneumonia risk. We aimed to study the relation of temperature variability (TV) with daily hospitalizations for pneumonia in China. We conducted a time-series study in 184 major cities by extracting daily hospital data between 2014 and 2017 from a medical insurance claims database of 0.28 billion beneficiaries. TV was calculated as standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures over exposure days. We estimated associations of pneumonia admissions with TV for each city using over-dispersed generalized linear models controlling for weather conditions and ambient air pollution, and pooled city-specific estimates using random effects meta-analyses. We also investigated exposure-response relationship curve and potential effect modifiers. We identified 4.2 million pneumonia hospitalizations during the study period. TV was positively related to daily pneumonia admissions. At the national-average level, each 1-°C increase in TV at 0-6 days' exposure corresponded to a 0.65 % (95 % CI: 0.34 %-0.96 %) increase in pneumonia admissions. An approximately linear exposure-response curve for the relation of TV with pneumonia admission was noted. The relations were more evident in cities with larger average age (P = 0.038). As the first study in China to assess the impact of temperature change on pneumonia on a national scale, our results indicated that acute TV exposure was related to higher admissions for pneumonia. Our findings should provide new insight into the health impacts associated with climate change.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Pneumonia , Humanos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Temperatura , Poluição do Ar/análise , Hospitalização , Cidades/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Hospitais
2.
J Hazard Mater ; 443(Pt A): 130147, 2023 02 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36283217

RESUMO

Hypertension is the most common chronic non-infectious disease and a severe problem for public health in China. There were 244.5 million people aged over 18 years in China who had hypertension in 2015, and hypertension-related death accounted for more than 25 % of all causes of death in China every year. To monitor the hypertension prevalence in near real-time, a wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approach by using metoprolol acid as a biomarker was conducted in 164 cities in China. LC-MS/MS was utilized to quantify metoprolol acid in sewage, and satisfactory method validation results were achieved. The average concentration of metoprolol acid in sewage was 943.1 ± 671.1 ng/L, and the back-calculated consumption of metoprolol based on metoprolol acid was 932.0 ± 390.5 mg/day/1000inh on average, ranging from 76.7 to 3275.7 mg/day/1000inh. The prevalence of metoprolol was estimated to be 0.83 % ± 0.35 %, and the estimated hypertension prevalence in the population aged over 15 years was ultimately assessed to be 28.56 % ± 10.44 % ranging from 14.28 % to 44.28 % and was consistent with the China Hypertension Survey result of 27.9 %. This research demonstrated that estimating hypertension prevalence by WBE with metoprolol acid as a biomarker is feasible in Chinese cities.


Assuntos
Hipertensão , Vigilância Epidemiológica Baseada em Águas Residuárias , Humanos , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Cidades/epidemiologia , Cromatografia Líquida , Esgotos , Prevalência , Metoprolol , Águas Residuárias/análise , Espectrometria de Massas em Tandem , China/epidemiologia , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Biomarcadores
3.
Int J Public Health ; 67: 1605177, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36405530

RESUMO

Objectives: Waves of epidemics associated with Omicron variant of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in major cities in China this year have been controlled. It is of great importance to study the transmission characteristics of these cases to support further interventions. Methods: We simulate the transmission trajectory and analyze the intervention influences of waves associated with Omicron variant in major cities in China using the Suspected-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. In addition, we propose a model using a function between the maximum daily infections and the duration of the epidemic, calibrated with data from Chinese cities. Results: An infection period of 5 days and basic reproduction number R0 between 2 and 8.72 are most appropriate for most cases in China. Control measures show a significant impact on reducing R0, and the earlier control measures are implemented, the shorter the epidemic will last. Our proposed model performs well in predicting the duration of the epidemic with an average error of 2.49 days. Conclusion: Our results show great potential in epidemic model simulation and predicting the end date of the Omicron epidemic effectively and efficiently.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , China/epidemiologia
4.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36361300

RESUMO

Uncontrolled, large-scale human mobility can amplify a localized disease into a pandemic. Tracking changes in human travel behavior, exploring the relationship between epidemic events and intercity travel generation and attraction under policies will contribute to epidemic prevention efforts, as well as deepen understanding of the essential changes of intercity interactions in the post-epidemic era. To explore the dynamic impact of small-scale localized epidemic events and related policies on intercity travel, a spatial lag model and improved gravity models are developed by using intercity travel data. Taking the localized COVID-19 epidemic in Xi'an, China as an example, the study constructs the travel interaction characterization before or after the pandemic as well as under constraints of regular epidemic prevention policies, whereby significant impacts of epidemic events are explored. Moreover, indexes of the quantified policies are refined to the city level in China to analyze their effects on travel volumes. We highlight the non-negligible impacts of city events and related policies on intercity interaction, which can serve as a reference for travel management in case of such severe events.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Viagem , Cidades/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia
5.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36361337

RESUMO

After the prevailing of the COVID-19 pandemic, urban communities around the world took initiatives to bring their cities back to life. In this research, 45 indicators and 55 elements were selected to make comparisons between urban communities in Lanzhou, China and Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina from five dimensions of social resilience, economic resilience, institutional resilience, infrastructural resilience, and community capital resilience. At the same time, the ArcGIS platform tool was used for spatial interpolation analysis. In this paper, the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method was used to carry out the spatial analysis of the perceived resilience of the two cities. Due to the heterogeneity of the neighborhood physical environment, operation and management mode, individual attribute characteristics, and internal relations, the resilience of the two urban communities showed disparity in different dimensions. Overall, the communities with good urban property management services, high-income owners, and the convenient transportation have stronger resilience in the face of pandemic. On the contrary, scattered communities, which are scattered in the inner cities, lack effective management, and based on unstable employment, people become the most affected by the epidemic with the lowest resilience power. The importance of social capital, represented by community understanding, identity, and mutual help and cooperation between neighbors, is highlighted in the resilience assessment of the two cities, respectively, in the East and West, indicating that to build more resilient cities, in addition to improving government management and increasing investment in urban infrastructure, building the residents' sense of belonging, identity, and enduring community culture is even more important in the construction of resilient cities.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Bósnia e Herzegóvina/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia
6.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0276500, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36327271

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Urban malaria is becoming a major public health concern in major cities in Cameroon. To improve malaria vector control, a pilot larviciding trial was conducted to assess its impact on mosquito density and malaria transmission intensity in Yaoundé. The present study investigated perceptions and practices of communities on malaria control during the larviciding trial implemented in Yaoundé. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected in non-intervention and intervention areas. Quantitative data were collected during three cross-sectional surveys using a structured pre-tested questionnaire while qualitative data were obtained through interviews. A total of 26 in-depth interviews and eight focus group discussions with community members were performed. A binary logistic regression model was used to assess the perception of the community on larviciding impact on some malaria or bed nets use indicators. RESULTS: People living in intervention areas were 2.64 times more likely to know the mode of malaria transmission (95% CI: 1.82-3.84; p<0.001) and 1.3 time more likely to know mosquito breeding habitats (95% CI: 1.06-1.56; p = 0.009) compared to those living in non-intervention areas. In intervention areas, interviewee opinions on larviciding were generally good i.e. most interviewees reported having noticed a reduction in mosquito nuisance and malaria cases following larviciding implementation; whereas in non-intervention areas no report of reduction of mosquito nuisance was recorded. LLINs were regularly used by the population despite the implementation of larviciding treatments. There was high interest in larviciding program and demand for continuation, even if this needs the community involvement. CONCLUSION: The larviciding program in the city of Yaoundé did not negatively affected community members' behaviour and practices concerning the use of treated nets. The study indicated the acceptance of larviciding program by the population. This positive environment could favour the implementation of future antilarval control activities in the city of Yaoundé.


Assuntos
Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Malária , Animais , Humanos , Camarões/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Malária/epidemiologia , Malária/prevenção & controle , Controle de Mosquitos , Mosquitos Vetores , Grupos Focais , Inquéritos e Questionários , Pesquisa Qualitativa
7.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 8(10): e38450, 2022 10 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36219835

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. METHODS: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. RESULTS: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 µm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. CONCLUSIONS: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Criança , Humanos , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Material Particulado , Tosse , Algoritmos
8.
Int J Biometeorol ; 66(12): 2501-2515, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36198888

RESUMO

Publications on ambient temperature-related mortality among Arctic or subarctic populations are extremely rare. While circumpolar areas cover large portions of several European countries, Canada, and the USA, the population of these territories is relatively small, and the data needed for statistical analysis of the health impacts of extreme temperature events are frequently insufficient. This study utilizes standard time series regression techniques to estimate relative increases in cause- and age-specific daily mortality rates during heat waves and cold spells in four Russian cities with a subarctic climate. The statistical significance of the obtained effect estimates tends to be greater in the continental climate than in the marine climate. A small meta-analysis was built around the obtained site-specific health effects. The effects were homogeneous and calculated for the selected weather-dependent health outcomes. The relative risks of mortality due to ischemic heart disease, all diseases of the circulatory system, and all non-accidental causes during cold spells in the age group ≥ 65 years were 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11-1.29), 1.14 (1.08-1.20), and 1.12 (1.07-1.17), respectively. Cold spells were more harmful to the health of the residents of Murmansk, Archangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, and only in Yakutsk, heat waves were more dangerous. The results of this study can help the public health authorities develop specific measures for the prevention of excess deaths during cold spells and heat waves in the exposed subarctic populations.


Assuntos
Temperatura Baixa , Temperatura Alta , Cidades/epidemiologia , Clima , Federação Russa/epidemiologia
9.
PLoS One ; 17(10): e0275714, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36240180

RESUMO

To curb the spread of the ongoing 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), authorities have adopted several non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions, which significantly affected our daily activities and mobility patterns. However, it is still unclear how severity of NPIs, COVID-19-related variables, and vaccination rates have affected demand for ridesourcing services, and whether these effects vary across small towns and large cities. We analyzed over 220 million ride requests in the City of Chicago (population: 2.7 million), Illinois, and 52 thousand in the Town of Innisfil (population: 37 thousand), Ontario, to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ridesourcing demand in the two locations. Overall, the pandemic resulted in fewer trips in areas with higher proportions of seniors and more trips to parks and green spaces. Ridesourcing demand was adversely affected by the stringency index and COVID-19-related variables, and positively affected by vaccination rates. However, compared to Innisfil, ridesourcing services in Chicago experienced higher reductions in demand, were more affected by the number of hospitalizations and deaths, were less impacted by vaccination rates, and had lower recovery rates.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Chicago/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
10.
Environ Health ; 21(1): 99, 2022 Oct 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36284320

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown. METHODS: This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974-2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99th compared to the 90th percentile. RESULTS: Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions except northern Scotland. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 10% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7%, 13%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 2%, 5%) under extreme heat. People in urban areas experienced higher mortality risk under extreme cold and heat than those in rural regions. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold and heat. Males experienced greater cold effects than females, whereas the reverse was true with heat effects, particularly among the elderly. Those who were unmarried had higher RR than those married under extreme heat, and the effect remained after controlling for age. The younger population living in the most deprived areas experienced higher cold and heat effects than in less deprived areas. Deaths from respiratory diseases were most sensitive to both cold and heat exposures, although mortality risk for cardiovascular diseases was also heightened, particularly in the elderly. Cold effects were lower in the most recent 15 years, which may be linked to policies and actions in preventing the vulnerable population from cold impacts. No temporal trend was found with the heat effect. CONCLUSIONS: This study assesses mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures in Scotland and identifies those groups who would benefit most from targeted actions to reduce cold- and heat-related mortalities.


Assuntos
Temperatura Baixa , Calor Extremo , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Idoso , Temperatura , Temperatura Alta , Cidades/epidemiologia , Mortalidade
11.
J Glob Health ; 12: 04085, 2022 Oct 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36243957

RESUMO

Background: The influences of air pollution exposure and temperature on respiratory diseases have become major global health concerns. This study investigated the relationship between ambient air pollutant concentrations and temperature in cold industrial cities that have the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases. Methods: A time-series study was conducted in Changchun, China, from 2015 to 2019 to analyse the number of daily admissions for respiratory diseases, air pollutant concentrations, and meteorological factors. Time-series decomposition was applied to analyse the trend and characteristics of the number of admissions. Generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models were constructed to explore the effects of air pollutant concentrations and temperature on the number of admissions. Results: The number of daily admissions showed an increasing trend, and the seasonal fluctuation was obvious, with more daily admissions in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. There were positive and gradually decreasing lag effects of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and CO concentrations on the number of admissions, whereas O3 showed a J-shaped trend. The results showed that within the 7-day lag period, 0.5°C was the temperature associated with the lowest relative risk of admission due to respiratory disease, and extremely low and high temperatures (<-18°C, >27°C, respectively) increased the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases by 8.3% and 12.1%, respectively. Conclusions: From 2015 to 2019, respiratory diseases in Changchun showed an increasing trend with obvious seasonality. The increased concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO, PM2.5, O3 and PM10 lead to an increased risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases, with a significant lag effect. Both extreme heat and cold could lead to increases in the risk of admission due to respiratory disease.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Transtornos Respiratórios , Doenças Respiratórias , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Hospitais , Humanos , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Material Particulado/análise , Material Particulado/toxicidade , Transtornos Respiratórios/epidemiologia , Transtornos Respiratórios/etiologia , Doenças Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Temperatura
12.
Front Public Health ; 10: 942543, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36262244

RESUMO

Hepatitis E has placed a heavy burden on China, especially in Jiangsu Province, so accurately predicting the incidence of hepatitis E benefits to alleviate the medical burden. In this paper, we propose a new attentive bidirectional long short-term memory network (denoted as BiLSTM-Attention) to predict the incidence of hepatitis E for all 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, China. Besides, we also explore the performance of adding meteorological factors and the Baidu (the most widely used Chinese search engine) index as additional training data for the prediction of our BiLSTM-Attention model. SARIMAX, GBDT, LSTM, BiLSTM, and BiLSTM-Attention models are tested in this study, based on the monthly incidence rates of hepatitis E, meteorological factors, and the Baidu index collected from 2011 to 2019 for the 13 cities in Jiangsu province, China. From January 2011 to December 2019, a total of 29,339 cases of hepatitis E were detected in all cities in Jiangsu Province, and the average monthly incidence rate for each city is 0.359 per 100,000 persons. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are used for model selection and performance evaluation. The BiLSTM-Attention model considering meteorological factors and the Baidu index has the best performance for hepatitis E prediction in all cities, and it gets at least 10% improvement in RMSE and MAE for all 13 cities in Jiangsu province, which means the model has significantly improved the learning ability, generalizability, and prediction accuracy when comparing with others.


Assuntos
Hepatite E , Humanos , Cidades/epidemiologia , Hepatite E/epidemiologia , Incidência , China/epidemiologia , Asiáticos
13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36231621

RESUMO

Although particulate matter (PM) is a major risk factor for stroke, its effects on hospital outpatients admitted for stroke have not been documented in Korea. In addition, recent studies have reported that the effects of PM10 on circulatory mortality changed over time. We aimed to estimate the effects of PM10 on stroke and their temporal heterogeneity in seven major cities of Korea during the period 2002-2015. The study period was divided into five years of moving time windows, and city-specific PM10 effects on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke outpatients were calculated. We pooled the estimates using meta-analysis and plotted them into a sequence to identify their temporal trends. A 10 µg/m3 increase of PM10 was significantly associated with increments in hospital outpatients admitted for ischemic stroke (0.24%, 95% CI: 0.04%, 0.44%), but not for hemorrhagic stroke (0.33%, 95% CI: -0.06%, 0.73%). Effect estimates for strokes increased during the period 2003-2013 but decreased after. For the first time, we have estimated the effects of PM10 on hospital outpatients admitted for stroke in Korea. The observed temporal trend in PM10 effects was similar to patterns of circulatory mortality, suggesting that the temporal heterogeneity in PM10 effects might be due to systematic causes rather than random fluctuations.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Acidente Vascular Cerebral Hemorrágico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Cidades/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , Pacientes Ambulatoriais , Material Particulado/análise , Material Particulado/toxicidade , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/induzido quimicamente , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo
14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36232094

RESUMO

Italian Long-Term Care is considered largely inadequate, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically exposed its limitations. Public Home Care Services in particular were revealed as under-financed and unable to cover the potential demand for care from the older population. But does the type of municipality and its geographic location play a role in creating or mitigating unmet demand? This is the first study addressing this research question in Italy. Our hypothesis is that older people's care preferences and care possibilities may vary between small, medium and metropolitan areas, as will the organisation, funding and availability of services, and the combination will influence (unmet) demand for public home care services. In this paper, using nationally representative survey data collected by the Italian National Statistical Institute in 2003 and 2016, we investigate changes and differences in the use of public and private home care services among people aged 75 or older in Italy by size of the municipality. Our results reveal inequalities in service use between Northern and Southern areas of the country and in particular between metropolitan areas, medium and small municipalities. Such differences reinforce post-pandemic calls for new investment and changes in the design of the Italian Long-Term Care system.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Assistência de Longa Duração , Pandemias
15.
PLoS One ; 17(9): e0267335, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36048758

RESUMO

Control of human mobility is one of the most effective measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the imposition of emergency restrictions had significant negative impacts on citizens' daily lives. As vaccination progresses, we need to consider more effective measures to control the spread of the infection. The research question of this study is as follows: Does the control of home range correlate with a reduction in the number of infected people during the COVID-19 pandemic? This study aims to clarify the correlation between home range and the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ibaraki City. Home ranges are analyzed by the Minimum Convex Polygon method using mobile phone GPS location history data. We analyzed the time series cross-correlation between home range lengths and the number of infected people. Results reveal a slight positive correlation between home range and the number of infected people after one week during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding home range length, the cross-correlation coefficient is 0.4030 even at a lag level of six weeks, which has the most significant coefficient. Thus, a decrease in the home range is a weak factor correlated with a reduction in the number of infected people. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature by evaluating key public health challenges from the perspective of controliing the spread of the COVID-19 infectuion. Its findings has implications for policy makers, practitioners, and urban scientists seeking to promote urban sustainability.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Animais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Comportamento de Retorno ao Território Vital , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Crescimento Sustentável , Fatores de Tempo
16.
Comput Biol Med ; 149: 106046, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36108414

RESUMO

In this paper, we propose a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiological model called SEIR-FMi (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovery with Flow and Medical investments) to study the effects of intra-city population movement, inter-city population movement, and medical resource investment on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. We theoretically derived the reproduction number of the SEIR-FMi model by using the next-generation matrix method and empirically simulate the individual impacts of population movement and medical resource investment on epidemic control. We found that intra- and inter-city population movements will increase the risk of epidemic spread, and the effect of inter-city population movement on low-risk areas is higher than that on high-risk areas. Increasing medical resource investment can not only speed up the recover rate of patients but also reduce the growth rate of infected cases and shorten the spread duration of the epidemic. We collected data on intra-city population movement, inter-city population movement, medical resource investment, and confirmed cases in the cities of Wuhan, Jingzhou, and Xiangyang, Hubei Province, China, from January 15 to March 15, 2020. Using the collected data, we validated that the proposed SEIR-FMi model performs well in simulating the spread of COVID-19 in the three cities. Meanwhile, this study confirms that three non-pharmaceutical interventions, namely community isolation, population mobility control, and medical resource aid, applied during the epidemic period are indispensable in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the three cities.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Modelos Epidemiológicos , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2
17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36141590

RESUMO

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public mental health has become increasingly prominent. Therefore, it is of great value to study the spatial-temporal characteristics of public sentiment responses to COVID-19 exposure to improve urban anti-pandemic decision-making and public health resilience. However, the majority of recent studies have focused on the macro scale or large cities, and there is a relative lack of adequate research on the small-city scale in China. To address this lack of research, we conducted a case study of Shaoxing city, proposed a spatial-based pandemic-cognition-sentiment (PCS) conceptual model, and collected microblog check-in data and information on the spatial-temporal trajectory of cases before and after a wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The natural language algorithm of dictionary-based sentiment analysis (DSA) was used to calculate public sentiment strength. Additionally, local Moran's I, kernel-density analysis, Getis-Ord Gi* and standard deviation ellipse methods were applied to analyze the nonlinear evolution and clustering characteristics of public sentiment spatial-temporal patterns at the small-city scale concerning the pandemic. The results reveal that (1) the characteristics of pandemic spread show contagion diffusion at the micro level and hierarchical diffusion at the macro level, (2) the pandemic has a depressive effect on public sentiment in the center of the outbreak, and (3) the pandemic has a nonlinear gradient negative impact on mood in the surrounding areas. These findings could help propose targeted pandemic prevention policies applying spatial intervention to improve residents' mental health resilience in response to future pandemics.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Mídias Sociais , Atitude , COVID-19/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Análise de Dados , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle
18.
PLoS One ; 17(9): e0274621, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36149918

RESUMO

This work quantifies the impact of pre-, during- and post-lockdown periods of 2020 and 2019 imposed due to COVID-19, with regards to a set of satellite-based environmental parameters (greenness using Normalized Difference Vegetation and water indices, land surface temperature, night-time light, and energy consumption) in five alpha cities (Kuala Lumpur, Mexico, greater Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Toronto). We have inferenced our results with an extensive questionnaire-based survey of expert opinions about the environment-related UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results showed considerable variation due to the lockdown on environment-related SDGs. The growth in the urban environmental variables during lockdown phase 2020 relative to a similar period in 2019 varied from 13.92% for Toronto to 13.76% for greater Mumbai to 21.55% for Kuala Lumpur; it dropped to -10.56% for Mexico and -1.23% for Sao Paulo city. The total lockdown was more effective in revitalizing the urban environment than partial lockdown. Our results also indicated that Greater Mumbai and Toronto, which were under a total lockdown, had observed positive influence on cumulative urban environment. While in other cities (Mexico City, Sao Paulo) where partial lockdown was implemented, cumulative lockdown effects were found to be in deficit for a similar period in 2019, mainly due to partial restrictions on transportation and shopping activities. The only exception was Kuala Lumpur which observed surplus growth while having partial lockdown because the restrictions were only partial during the festival of Ramadan. Cumulatively, COVID-19 lockdown has contributed significantly towards actions to reduce degradation of natural habitat (fulfilling SDG-15, target 15.5), increment in available water content in Sao Paulo urban area(SDG-6, target 6.6), reduction in NTL resulting in reducied per capita energy consumption (SDG-13, target 13.3).


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Desenvolvimento Sustentável , Brasil , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Cidades/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Nações Unidas , Água
19.
Front Public Health ; 10: 902455, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36045730

RESUMO

Objective: From January 23rd, 2020, lock-down measures were adopted in Wuhan, China to stop the spread of COVID-19. However, due to the approach of the Spring Festival and the nature of COVID-19, more than 6 million permanent and temporary residents of Wuhan (who were potential carriers or spreaders of the virus), left the city before the lock-down measures were implemented. This study aims to explore whether and how the population inflow from Wuhan city impacted residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks at the destination cities. Study design and setting: Based on questionnaire data and migration big data, a multiple regression model was developed to quantify the impact of the population inflow from Wuhan city on the sense of confidence of residents in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities. Scenarios were considered that varied residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, and the overall indicators for the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19. A marginal effect analysis was also conducted to calculate the probability of change in residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak with per unit change in the population inflow from Wuhan city. Results: The impact of population inflow from Wuhan city on residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities was positive and significant at the 1% level, while that on residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 at the destination cities was negative and significant at the 1% level. Robustness checks, which included modifying the sample range and replacing measurement indicators of the population inflow from Wuhan city, demonstrated these findings were robust and credible. When the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probabilities of the variables "February" and "March" decreased significantly by 0.1023 and 0.1602, respectively, while the probabilities of "April," "May," "June," "July," "before the end of 2020," and "unknown" significantly increased by 0.0470, 0.0856, 0.0333, 0.0080, 0.0046, and 0.0840, respectively. Similarly, when the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probability of the variable "extremely confident" decreased by 0.1973. Furthermore, the probabilities of the variables "confident," "neutral," and "unconfident" significantly increased by 0.1392, 0.0224, and 0.0320, respectively. Conclusion: The population inflow from Wuhan city played a negative role in the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19 in the destination cities. The higher the population inflow from Wuhan city, the longer the residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities became, and the weaker the residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Cidades/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Soc Sci Med ; 310: 115307, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36049353

RESUMO

Testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection has been a key strategy to mitigate and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Wide spatial and racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have emerged in US cities. Previous research has highlighted the role of unequal access to testing as a potential driver of these disparities. We described inequities in spatial accessibility to COVID-19 testing locations in 30 large US cities. We used location data from Castlight Health Inc corresponding to October 2021. We created an accessibility metric at the level of the census block group (CBG) based on the number of sites per population in a 15-minute walkshed around the centroid of each CBG. We also calculated spatial accessibility using only testing sites without restrictions, i.e., no requirement for an appointment or a physician order prior to testing. We measured the association between the social vulnerability index (SVI) and spatial accessibility using a multilevel negative binomial model with random city intercepts and random SVI slopes. Among the 27,195 CBG analyzed, 53% had at least one testing site within a 15-minute walkshed, and 36% had at least one site without restrictions. On average, a 1-decile increase in the SVI was associated with a 3% (95% Confidence Interval: 2% - 4%) lower accessibility. Spatial inequities were similar across various components of the SVI and for sites with no restrictions. Despite this general pattern, several cities had inverted inequity, i.e., better accessibility in more vulnerable areas, which indicates that some cities may be on the right track when it comes to promoting equity in COVID-19 testing. Testing is a key component of the strategy to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and efforts should be made to improve accessibility to testing, particularly as new and more contagious variants become dominant.


Assuntos
Teste para COVID-19 , COVID-19 , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Gluconato de Cálcio , Cidades/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2
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