Forecasting and mapping dengue fever epidemics in China: a spatiotemporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) has emerged as a significant public health concern in China. The spatiotemporal patterns and underlying influencing its spread, however, remain elusive. This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the city-level risk of DF epidemics in China. METHODS: We analyzed the frequency, intensity, and distribution of DF cases in China from 2003 to 2022 and evaluated 11 natural and socioeconomic factors as potential drivers. Using the random forest (RF) model, we assessed the contributions of these factors to local DF epidemics and predicted the corresponding city-level risk. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2022, there was a notable correlation between local and imported DF epidemics in case numbers (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) and affected cities (r = 0.79, P < 0.01). With the increase in the frequency and intensity of imported epidemics, local epidemics have become more severe. Their occurrence has increased from five to eight months per year, with case numbers spanning from 14 to 6641 per month. The spatial distribution of city-level DF epidemics aligns with the geographical divisions defined by the Huhuanyong Line (Hu Line) and Qin Mountain-Huai River Line (Q-H Line) and matched well with the city-level time windows for either mosquito vector activity (83.59%) or DF transmission (95.74%). The RF models achieved a high performance (AUC = 0.92) when considering the time windows. Importantly, they identified imported cases as the primary influencing factor, contributing significantly (24.82%) to local DF epidemics at the city level in the eastern region of the Hu Line (E-H region). Moreover, imported cases were found to have a linear promoting impact on local epidemics, while five climatic and six socioeconomic factors exhibited nonlinear effects (promoting or inhibiting) with varying inflection values. Additionally, this model demonstrated outstanding accuracy (hitting ratio = 95.56%) in predicting the city-level risks of local epidemics in China. CONCLUSIONS: China is experiencing an increasing occurrence of sporadic local DF epidemics driven by an unavoidably higher frequency and intensity of imported DF epidemics. This research offers valuable insights for health authorities to strengthen their intervention capabilities against this disease.

Prevalence and disease burden of chronic cough in nine cities of China: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic cough (CC) is common in the general population of China, creating a difficult-to-ignore public health burden. However, there is a lack of research on the nationwide prevalence and disease burden of CC in the Chinese population. We aim to use an insurance claims database to assess the prevalence and the corresponding economic burden owing to CC in China. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study based on an administrative medical insurance database in 2015, 2016 and 2017, from nine cities in North, South, East, South-West, and North-West regions of China. The study population was Chinese adults (≥ 18 years old) who had been identified as CC patients. Descriptive data analyses were used in statistical analysis. RESULTS: A total of 44,472, 55,565, and 56,439 patients with mean ages of 53.2 (16.3) years were identified as patients with CC in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. Of these, 55.24% were women. In addition, 8.90%, 9.46%, and 8.37% of all patients in 2015, 2016, and 2017, who had applied for medical insurance, had CC, respectively, with a three-year average probability of 8.88%. The median number of outpatient visits within a calendar year was 27 per year due to any reason during the period of 2015-2017. The median medical cost of each patient per year increased from 935.30 USD to 1191.47 USD from 2015 to 2017. CONCLUSION: CC is common among medical insurance users, with a substantial utilization of medical resources, highlighting the huge burden of CC in China.

Geography versus sociodemographics as predictors of changes in daily mobility across the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic: a two-stage regression analysis across 26 metropolitan areas.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether a zip code's location or demographics are most predictive of changes in daily mobility throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: We used a population-level study to examine the predictability of daily mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic using a two-stage regression approach, where generalised additive models (GAM) predicted mobility trends over time at a large spatial level, then the residuals were used to determine which factors (location, zip code-level features or number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in place) best predict the difference between a zip code's measured mobility and the average trend on a given date. SETTING: We analyse zip code-level mobile phone records from 26 metropolitan areas in the USA on 15 March-31 September 2020, relative to October 2020. RESULTS: While relative mobility had a general trend, a zip code's city-level location significantly helped to predict its daily mobility patterns. This effect was time-dependent, with a city's deviation from general mobility trends differing in both direction and magnitude throughout the course of 2020. The characteristics of a zip code further increased predictive power, with the densest zip codes closest to a city centre tended to have the largest decrease in mobility. However, the effect on mobility change varied by city and became less important over the course of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The location and characteristics of a zip code are important for determining changes in daily mobility patterns throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. These results can determine the efficacy of NPI implementation on multiple spatial scales and inform policy makers on whether certain NPIs should be implemented or lifted during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and when preparing for future public health emergencies.

Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality Burden and Spatial Heterogeneity in 16 Prefecture-Level Cities of a Low-Latitude Plateau Area in Yunnan Province: Time-Series Study.

Background: The relation between climate change and human health has become one of the major worldwide public health issues. However, the evidence for low-latitude plateau regions is limited, where the climate is unique and diverse with a complex geography and topography. objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of ambient temperature on the mortality burden of nonaccidental deaths in Yunnan Province and to further explore its spatial heterogeneity among different regions. Methods: We collected mortality and meteorological data from all 129 counties in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020, and 16 prefecture-level cities were analyzed as units. A distributed lagged nonlinear model was used to estimate the effect of temperature exposure on years of life lost (YLL) for nonaccidental deaths in each prefecture-level city. The attributable fraction of YLL due to ambient temperature was calculated. A multivariate meta-analysis was used to obtain an overall aggregated estimate of effects, and spatial heterogeneity among 16 prefecture-level cities was evaluated by adjusting the city-specific geographical characteristics, demographic characteristics, economic factors, and health resources factors. Results: The temperature-YLL association was nonlinear and followed slide-shaped curves in all regions. The cumulative cold and heat effect estimates along lag 0-21 days on YLL for nonaccidental deaths were 403.16 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] 148.14-615.18) and 247.83 (95% eCI 45.73-418.85), respectively. The attributable fraction for nonaccidental mortality due to daily mean temperature was 7.45% (95% eCI 3.73%-10.38%). Cold temperature was responsible for most of the mortality burden (4.61%, 95% eCI 1.70-7.04), whereas the burden due to heat was 2.84% (95% eCI 0.58-4.83). The vulnerable subpopulations include male individuals, people aged <75 years, people with education below junior college level, farmers, nonmarried individuals, and ethnic minorities. In the cause-specific subgroup analysis, the total attributable fraction (%) for mean temperature was 13.97% (95% eCI 6.70-14.02) for heart disease, 11.12% (95% eCI 2.52-16.82) for respiratory disease, 10.85% (95% eCI 6.70-14.02) for cardiovascular disease, and 10.13% (95% eCI 6.03-13.18) for stroke. The attributable risk of cold effect for cardiovascular disease was higher than that for respiratory disease cause of death (9.71% vs 4.54%). Furthermore, we found 48.2% heterogeneity in the effect of mean temperature on YLL after considering the inherent characteristics of the 16 prefecture-level cities, with urbanization rate accounting for the highest proportion of heterogeneity (15.7%) among urban characteristics. Conclusions: This study suggests that the cold effect dominated the total effect of temperature on mortality burden in Yunnan Province, and its effect was heterogeneous among different regions, which provides a basis for spatial planning and health policy formulation for disease prevention.

Trends in HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality and the Impact of Antiretroviral Treatment Strategies in Lu'an City: A Comprehensive Analysis.

BACKGROUND There are many factors that affect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths, and different antiretroviral therapy (ART) strategies may affect HIV/AIDS-related fatality rates. However, studies on this area are very limited. This study aimed to evaluate the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality and the impact of different ART strategies in Lu'an City, Anhui Province, China, 1999-2023. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data of HIV/AIDS cases were downloaded from the China HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System, and were assessed to evaluate the impact of different ART strategies on the related fatality rate using interrupted time series (ITS). RESULTS We found that age at diagnosis of 15 years, 25 years, 40 years, and 60 years, as well as receiving ART, were protective factors against death (with P below 0.05), while lower CD4 count at the last CD4 count and the year of diagnosis before 2007 and between 2007 and 2016 were risk factors (with P below 0.05). ITS analysis revealed that in the year of the introduction of free ART in 2006, the fatality rate decreased by 38.60% (P=0.015). The fatality rate trend from 2006 to 2015 was -1.1%, which was not statistically significant (P=0.434). The fatality rate trend from 2016 to 2023 was -0.33%, indicating a decreasing trend (P=0.000). CONCLUSIONS Children under 15 years old and elderly patients had a higher risk of death. The main reasons for the decrease in HIV/AIDS-related fatality rate were ART, especially the "early treatment" strategy.

Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Genomes in Wastewaters and the Associated Potential Infection Risk for Plant Workers in Typical Urban and Peri-Urban Communities of the Buffalo City Region, South Africa.

The presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in wastewater has been reported in several studies and similar research can be used as a proxy for an early warning of potential Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks. This study focused on profiling the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in wastewater samples obtained from facilities located in the Buffalo City Municipality. Raw samples were collected weekly using the grab technique for a period of 48 weeks. Ribonucleic acids were extracted from the samples, using the QIAGEN Powersoil Total RNA Extraction kit, and extracted RNA samples were further profiled for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 genomes using Quantitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR) technique. Furthermore, various environmental matrices were utilized to estimate the potential health risk to plant operators associated with exposure to SARS-CoV-2 viral particles using the quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) model. Our findings revealed the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 genomes with concentrations that ranged from 0.22 × 103 to 17.60 × 103 genome copies per milliliter (GC/mL). Different exposure scenarios were employed for the QMRA model, and the findings indicate a probability of infection (P(i)) ranging from 0.93% to 37.81% across the study sites. Similarly, the P(i) was highly significant (p < 0.001) for the 20 mL volumetric intake as compared to other volumetric intake scenarios, and high P(i) was also observed in spring, autumn, and winter for all WWTPs. The P(i) was significantly different (p < 0.05) with respect to the different seasons and with respect to different volume scenarios.

Seroprevalence of Leptospira antibodies in dogs and cats from Santa Fe, a city in East-Central Argentina endemic for leptospirosis.

This study examines household pets as potential epidemiological links between environments contaminated with pathogenic leptospires and humans in Santa Fe, Argentina. The aims of our study were: (a) to characterize the habits and exposure to environmental sources of leptospirosis in the population of dogs and cats attending to municipal spay and neutering campaigns in Santa Fe, Argentina, (b) to assess the seroprevalence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in asymptomatic dogs and cats, (c) to evaluate factors that could increase seropositivity, and (d) to identify spatial clusters of seropositive dogs and cats in the capital city of Santa Fe. From May to November 2022, a cross-sectional serosurvey was conducted during municipal spaying/neutering campaigns. Eligible household dogs and cats were over 6 months old, apparently healthy, and not vaccinated against leptospirosis in the past 6 months. We used microagglutination test (MAT) to assess anti-Leptospira antibodies using a panel of 10 reference strains. We used generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMM) to examine individual and census tract-level risk factors for seropositivity, and local Moran's I statistic for spatial clusters. Results showed higher leptospiral antibody prevalence in dogs (18.2 %) than cats (3.6 %, p = 0.002). Dogs with street access had higher likelihood of being seropositive (OR: 3.8, 95 % CI: 1.2; 11.9), and areas with chronic poverty showed an elevated risk of presenting seropositive animals (RR: 4.0, 95 % CI: 1.1; 14.4). Spatial analysis didn't reveal significant seropositivity clusters among census tracts. These findings shed light on widespread Leptospira seropositivity in pets in this endemic region. Understanding seroprevalence and risk factors can guide public and veterinary health strategies, emphasizing increased leptospirosis vaccination for dogs in vulnerable areas and promoting responsible pet care.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Food Insecurity among Pregnant Women in an Important City of the Amazon Region: A Study of the Years 2021 and 2022.

INTRODUCTION: Food insecurity (FI) experienced during pregnancy represents a relevant public health problem, as it negatively affects maternal and child health. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of FI among pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine associated factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the period from 2021 to 2022, with a representative sample of 423 women resulting from a sample calculation based on the average (2912 births) that occurred in the years 2016 to 2020 in the only maternity hospital in the municipality. After analyzing the medical records, interviews were carried out with the postpartum women using a standardized questionnaire and the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to calculate prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals to measure associations. RESULTS: FI was observed in 57.0% of cases and was associated with age under 20 years (PR = 1.52; 95% CI 1.29; 1.79), receipt of government assistance (PR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.10; 1.55), loss of family employment (PR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.20; 1.64), greater number of residents (PR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.00; 1.37), and prenatal care in a public institution (PR = 1.53; 95% CI 1.04; 2.26). CONCLUSION: There was a high prevalence of FI cases, associated with socioeconomic, demographic, and prenatal care characteristics during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in Northern Italy: A Spatiotemporal Model.

The study investigated the application of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) as a tool for monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a city in northern Italy from October 2021 to May 2023. Based on a previously used deterministic model, this study proposed a variation to account for the population characteristics and virus biodegradation in the sewer network. The model calculated virus loads and corresponding COVID-19 cases over time in different areas of the city and was validated using healthcare data while considering viral mutations, vaccinations, and testing variability. The correlation between the predicted and reported cases was high across the three waves that occurred during the period considered, demonstrating the ability of the model to predict the relevant fluctuations in the number of cases. The population characteristics did not substantially influence the predicted and reported infection rates. Conversely, biodegradation significantly reduced the virus load reaching the wastewater treatment plant, resulting in a 30% reduction in the total virus load produced in the study area. This approach can be applied to compare the virus load values across cities with different population demographics and sewer network structures, improving the comparability of the WBE data for effective surveillance and intervention strategies.

The Interaction between Education and Sex with Alcohol Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Two Brazilian Cities.

This cross-sectional study, carried out between October and December 2020 in two Brazilian cities, aimed to evaluate the joint association of education and sex with habitual and episodic excessive alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. Habitual alcohol consumption was defined as drinking any quantity of alcohol at least once per week. Excessive episodic alcohol consumption was defined as the consumption of five or more drinks by men or four or more drinks by women at least once in the last 30 days. Adjusted multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze associations of education and sex with alcohol consumption. Education was not associated with habitual alcohol consumption and excessive episodic alcohol consumption. However, when evaluating the joint effect between education and sex, it can be seen that men with low education were more likely to habitually consume (OR: 5.85; CI95:2.74-14.84) and abuse alcohol (OR: 4.45; IC95:1.54-12.82) and women with high education were more likely to have habitual (OR: 2.16; IC95:1.18-3.95) and abusive alcohol consumption (OR: 2.00; IC95:1.16-3.43). These findings highlight the modifying effect of sex on the relationship between education and alcohol consumption, such that education influenced alcohol consumption differently between sexes during the pandemic.

Epidemic Characteristics and Meteorological Risk Factors of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome in 151 Cities in China From 2015 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continues to pose a significant public health threat to the population in China. Previous epidemiological evidence indicates that HFRS is climate sensitive and influenced by meteorological factors. However, past studies either focused on too-narrow geographical regions or investigated time periods that were too early. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive analysis to interpret the epidemiological patterns of meteorological factors affecting the incidence of HFRS across diverse climate zones. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to describe the overall epidemic characteristics of HFRS and explore the linkage between monthly HFRS cases and meteorological factors at different climate levels in China. METHODS: The reported HFRS cases and meteorological data were collected from 151 cities in China during the period from 2015 to 2021. We conducted a 3-stage analysis, adopting a distributed lag nonlinear model and a generalized additive model to estimate the interactions and marginal effects of meteorological factors on HFRS. RESULTS: This study included a total of 63,180 cases of HFRS; the epidemic trends showed seasonal fluctuations, with patterns varying across different climate zones. Temperature had the greatest impact on the incidence of HFRS, with the maximum hysteresis effects being at 1 month (-19 ºC; relative risk [RR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.24-2.15) in the midtemperate zone, 0 months (28 ºC; RR 3.15, 95% CI 2.13-4.65) in the warm-temperate zone, and 0 months (4 ºC; RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.31-2.25) in the subtropical zone. Interactions were discovered between the average temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation in different temperature zones. Moreover, the influence of precipitation and relative humidity on the incidence of HFRS had different characteristics under different temperature layers. The hysteresis effect of meteorological factors did not end after an epidemic season, but gradually weakened in the following 1 or 2 seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Weather variability, especially low temperature, plays an important role in epidemics of HFRS in China. A long hysteresis effect indicates the necessity of continuous intervention following an HFRS epidemic. This finding can help public health departments guide the prevention and control of HFRS and develop strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change in specific regions.

Presidential election results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic in Brazilian municipalities.

We evaluated the hypothesis of an association between excess mortality and political partisanship in Brazil using municipal death certificates registered in the Brazilian Ministry of Health database and first-round electoral results of Presidential elections in 2018 and 2022. Considering the former Brazilian President's stance of discrediting and neglecting the severity of the pandemic, we expect a possible relationship between excessive mortality rates during the COVID-19 health crisis and the number of municipal votes for Bolsonaro. Our results showed that, in both elections, the first-round percentage of municipal votes for Bolsonaro was positively associated with the peaks of excess deaths across Brazilian municipalities in 2020 and 2021. Despite the excess mortality during the pandemic, the political loyalty to Bolsonaro remained the same during the electoral period of 2022. A possible explanation for this is linked to the Brazilian political scenario, which presents an environment of tribal politics and affective polarization.

Space-time dispersion of dengue occurrence in epidemic and non-epidemic years in a municipality in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, MG, 2011 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the transmission dynamics of dengue, a public health problem in Brazil and the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH). METHODS: The spatiotemporal evolution of the occurrence of dengue in the municipality of Contagem, state of Minas Gerais, a region with high arbovirus transmission, was analyzed. Furthermore, epidemic and non-epidemic periods were analyzed, based on probable cases of dengue. This is an ecological study that used the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) national database. The analyses were carried out considering the period from epidemiological week (EW) 40 of 2011 to 39 of 2017. Spatial analysis tools (crude and smoothed incidence rate, directional distribution ellipse, global Moran index and local Moran index, and spatial scanning time with definition of epidemiological risk) were used. RESULTS: The 2012 to 2013 and 2015 to 2016 epidemic cycles presented high incidence rates. The disease was concentrated in more urbanized areas, with a small increase in cases throughout the municipality. Seven statistically significant local clusters and areas with a high rate of cases and accentuated transmission in epidemic cycles were observed throughout the municipality. Spatial autocorrelation of the incidence rate was observed in all periods. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study highlight a significant and heterogeneous increase in dengue notifications in Contagem over the years, revealing distinct spatial patterns during epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Geoprocessing analysis identified high-risk areas, a piece of knowledge that can optimize the allocation of resources in the prevention and treatment of the disease for that municipality.

Association between ambient temperature and influenza prevalence: A nationwide time-series analysis in 201 Chinese cities from 2013 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Temperature affects influenza transmission; however, currently, limited evidence exists about its effect in China at the national and city levels as well as how temperature can be integrated into influenza interventions. METHODS: Meteorological, pollutant, and influenza data from 201 cities in mainland China between 2013 and 2018 were analyzed at both the city and national levels to investigate the relationship between temperature and influenza prevalence. We examined the impact of temperature on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) using generalized additive quasi-Poisson regression models combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Threshold temperatures were determined for seven regions based on the early warning threshold of serious influenza outbreaks, set at Rt = 1.2. A multivariate random-effects meta-analysis was employed to assess region-specific associations. The excess risk (ER) index was defined to investigate the correlation between Rt and temperature, modified based on seasonal and regional characteristics. RESULTS: At the national level and in the central, northern, northwestern, and southern regions, temperature was found to be negatively correlated with relative risk, whereas the shapes of the data curves for the eastern, southwestern, and northeastern regions were not well defined. Low temperatures had an observable effect on influenza prevalence; however, the effects of high temperatures were not obvious. At an Rt of 1.2, the threshold temperatures for reaching a warning for serious influenza outbreaks were - 24.3 °C in the northeastern region, 16.6 °C in the northwestern region, and between 1℃ and 10 °C in other regions. CONCLUSION: The study findings revealed that temperature had a varying effect on influenza transmission trends (Rt) across different regions in China. By identifying region-specific temperature thresholds at Rt = 1.2, more effective early warning systems for influenza outbreaks could be tailored. These findings emphasize the significance of the region-specific adaptation of influenza prevention and control measures.

Active surveillance of hepatitis E: a 10-year epidemiological analysis in a city in eastern China.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an important cause of acute hepatitis, however, is highly neglected and largely underreported. This study aimed to describe the detailed epidemiology of hepatitis E (HE) through a 10-year surveillance. A community-based active hepatitis surveillance was conducted between November 2007 and October 2017 in 11 townships of Dongtai City in China, involving 355,673 residents. Serum samples were obtained from patients presenting with hepatitis symptoms for more than 3 days. Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels greater than 2.5 times the upper limit of normal (ULN) were considered acute hepatitis. Samples were subsequently tested for IgG and IgM anti-HEV antibodies, HEV RNA, and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). The data indicated the incidence of HE fluctuated downward from 2007 to 2017, with an average annual age-standardized incidence of 17.50 per 100,000, exceeding the 10.26 per 100,000 in the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS). The incidence was notably higher among males (20.95 per 100,000) and individuals aged 50-69 years (37.47 per 100,000). Genotype 4 (HEV-4) was the predominantly circulating genotype during the study period. Furthermore, the study revealed the incidence of hepatitis with HEV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection was 4.99 per 100,000. The active surveillance system identified a higher incidence of HE compared to NNDRS, with a decreased prevalence over a 10-year period. While efforts are still needed to prevent HE in high-risk populations, including individuals with hepatitis B and the elderly.

First year of COVID-19 in Brazil: Factors associated with the spread of COVID-19 in small and large cities.

AIM: To test the association between sociodemographic and social characteristics with COVID-19 cases and deaths in small and large Brazilian cities. METHODS: This ecological study included COVID-19 data available in State Health Secretaries (managed by brasil.io API) and three national databases (IBGE, DATASUS and Embrapa). Temporal spread of COVID-19 in Brazil during the first year considered as outcome: a) days until 1st case in each city since 1st in the country; b) days until 1,000 cases/100,000 inhabitants since 1st case in each city; c) days until 1st death until 50 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. Covariates included geographic region, city social and environmental characteristics, housing conditions, job characteristics, socioeconomic and inequalities characteristics, and health services and coverage. The analysis were stratified by city size into small (<100,000 inhabitants) and large cities (≥100,00 inhabitants). Multiple linear regressions were performed to test associations of all covariates to adjust to potential confounders. RESULTS: In small cities, the first cases were reported after 82.2 days and 1,000 cases/100,000 were reported after 117.8 days, whereas in large cities these milestones were reported after 32.1 and 127.7 days, respectively. For first death, small and large cities took 121.6 and 36.0 days, respectively. However, small cities were associated with more vulnerability factors to first case arrival in 1,000 cases/100,000 inhabitants, first death and 50 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. North and Northeast regions positively associated with faster COVID-19 incidence, whereas South and Southeast were least. CONCLUSION: Social and built environment characteristics and inequalities were associated with COVID-19 cases spread and mortality incidence in Brazilian cities.

Public transit mobility as a leading indicator of COVID-19 transmission in 40 cities during the first wave of the pandemic.

Background: The rapid global emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 created urgent demand for leading indicators to track the spread of the virus and assess the consequences of public health measures designed to limit transmission. Public transit mobility, which has been shown to be responsive to previous societal disruptions such as disease outbreaks and terrorist attacks, emerged as an early candidate. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal ecological study of the association between public transit mobility reductions and COVID-19 transmission using publicly available data from a public transit app in 40 global cities from March 16 to April 12, 2020. Multilevel linear regression models were used to estimate the association between COVID-19 transmission and the value of the mobility index 2 weeks prior using two different outcome measures: weekly case ratio and effective reproduction number. Results: Over the course of March 2020, median public transit mobility, measured by the volume of trips planned in the app, dropped from 100% (first quartile (Q1)-third quartile (Q3) = 94-108%) of typical usage to 10% (Q1-Q3 = 6-15%). Mobility was strongly associated with COVID-19 transmission 2 weeks later: a 10% decline in mobility was associated with a 12.3% decrease in the weekly case ratio (exp(ß) = 0.877; 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.859-0.896]) and a decrease in the effective reproduction number (ß = -0.058; 95% CI: [-0.068 to -0.048]). The mobility-only models explained nearly 60% of variance in the data for both outcomes. The adjustment for epidemic timing attenuated the associations between mobility and subsequent COVID-19 transmission but only slightly increased the variance explained by the models. Discussion: Our analysis demonstrated the value of public transit mobility as a leading indicator of COVID-19 transmission during the first wave of the pandemic in 40 global cities, at a time when few such indicators were available. Factors such as persistently depressed demand for public transit since the onset of the pandemic limit the ongoing utility of a mobility index based on public transit usage. This study illustrates an innovative use of "big data" from industry to inform the response to a global pandemic, providing support for future collaborations aimed at important public health challenges.

Indirect Effects of PM2.5 Exposure on COVID-19 Mortality in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia: An Ecological Study.

Background: Air pollution, including PM2.5, was suggested as one of the primary contributors to COVID-19 fatalities worldwide. Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, was recognized as one of the ten most polluted cities globally. Additionally, the incidence of COVID-19 in Jakarta surpasses that of all other provinces in Indonesia. However, no study has investigated the correlation between PM2.5 concentration and COVID-19 fatality in Jakarta. Objective: To investigate the correlation between short-term and long-term exposure to PM2.5 and COVID-19 mortality in Greater Jakarta area. Methods: An ecological time-trend study was implemented. The data of PM2.5 ambient concentration obtained from Nafas Indonesia and the National Institute for Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN)/National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). The daily COVID-19 death data obtained from the City's Health Office. Findings: Our study unveiled an intriguing pattern: while short-term exposure to PM2.5 showed a negative correlation with COVID-19 mortality, suggesting it might not be the sole factor in causing fatalities, long-term exposure demonstrated a positive correlation. This suggests that COVID-19 mortality is more strongly influenced by prolonged PM2.5 exposure rather than short-term exposure alone. Specifically, our regression analysis estimate that a 50 µg/m3 increase in long-term average PM2.5 could lead to an 11.9% rise in the COVID-19 mortality rate. Conclusion: Our research, conducted in one of the most polluted areas worldwide, offers compelling evidence regarding the influence of PM2.5 exposure on COVID-19 mortality rates. It emphasizes the importance of recognizing air pollution as a critical risk factor for the severity of viral respiratory infections.

The impacts of extreme heat events on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: An analysis of 12 Canadian cities from 2000 to 2020.

Background: Extreme heat has significant impacts on mortality. In Canada, past research has analyzed the degree to which non-accidental mortality increases during single extreme heat events; however, few studies have considered multiple causes of death and the impacts of extreme heat events on mortality over longer time periods. Data and methods: Daily death counts attributable to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory causes were retrieved for the 12 most populous cities in Canada from 2000 to 2020. Generalized additive models were applied to quantify daily mortality risks for people aged younger than 65 years and for those aged 65 years and older in each city and for each cause of death. Model results were used to calculate the change in mortality risks and the number of excess deaths attributable to extreme heat during extreme heat events. Results: Elevated mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events in most cities for non-accidental and respiratory causes. The impacts of extreme heat on non-accidental mortality were typically greater for people aged 65 and older than for those aged younger than 65. Significantly higher non-accidental mortality risks were observed during extreme heat events for people aged 65 and older in Montréal, the city of Québec, Surrey, and Toronto. For cardiovascular and respiratory causes, people aged 65 and older had significantly higher mortality risks during extreme heat events in Montréal, and both Montréal and Toronto, respectively. In the 12 cities, approximately 670 excess non-accidental deaths, 115 excess cardiovascular deaths, and 115 excess respiratory deaths were attributable to extreme heat events during the study period. Mortality risks during extreme heat events were generally higher in cities with larger proportions of renter households and fewer extreme heat events. Interpretation: This study estimates the longer-term impacts of extreme heat events on three mortality outcomes in a set of large Canadian cities. As climate change causes more frequent and intense extreme heat events, and as policy makers aim to reduce the health impacts of heat, it is important to understand how and where extreme heat affects health.

Aberrant behaviors of drivers involved in crashes and related injury severity: Are there variations between the major cities in the same country?

INTRODUCTION: Crash data analyses based on accident datasets often do not include human-related variables because they can be hard to reconstruct from crash data. However, records of crash circumstances can help for this purpose since crashes can be classified considering aberrant behavior and misconduct of the drivers involved. METHOD: In this case, urban crash data from the 10 largest Italian cities were used to develop four logistic regression models having the driver-related crash circumstance (aberrant behaviors: inattentive driving, illegal maneuvering, wrong interaction with pedestrian and speeding) as dependent variables and the other crash-related factors as predictors (information about the users and the vehicles involved and about road geometry and conditions). Two other models were built to study the influence of the same factors on the injury severity of the occupants of vehicles for which crash circumstances related to driver aberrant behaviors were observed and of the involved pedestrians. The variability between the 10 different cities was considered through a multilevel approach, which revealed a significant variability only for the inattention-related crash circumstance. In the other models, the variability between cities was not significant, indicating quite homogeneous results within the same country. RESULTS: The results show several relationships between crash factors (driver, vehicle or road-related) and human-related crash circumstances and severity. Unsignalized intersections were particularly related to the illegal maneuvering crash circumstance, while the night period was clearly related to the speeding-related crash circumstance and to injuries/casualties of vehicle occupants. Cyclists and motorcyclists were shown to suffer more injuries/casualties than car occupants, while the latter were generally those exhibiting more aberrant behaviors. Pedestrian casualties were associated with arterial roads, heavy vehicles, and older pedestrians.