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1.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 728, 2020 Oct 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33028235

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Late presentation (LP), defined as a CD4 count < 350/mm3 or an AIDS-event at HIV-diagnosis, remains a significant problem across Europe. Linking cohort and surveillance data, we assessed the country-specific burden of LP during 2010-2016 and the occurrence of new AIDS events or deaths within 12 months of HIV-diagnosis believed to be attributable to LP. METHODS: Country-specific percentages of LP and AIDS-events/death rates (assessed with Poisson regression) observed in The Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) and EuroSIDA cohorts, were applied to new HIV-diagnoses reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The estimated number of LP in the whole population was then calculated, as was the number of excess AIDS-events/deaths in the first 12 months following HIV-diagnosis assumed to be attributable to LP (difference in estimated events between LP and non-LP). RESULTS: Thirty-nine thousand two hundred four persons were included from the COHERE and EuroSIDA cohorts, of whom 18,967 (48.4%; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 47.9-48.9) were classified as LP, ranging from 36.9% in Estonia (95%CI 25.2-48.7) and Ukraine (95%CI 30.0-43.8) to 64.2% in Poland (95%CI 57.2-71.3). We estimated a total of > 320,000 LP and 12,050 new AIDS-events/deaths attributable to LP during 2010-2016, with the highest estimated numbers of LP and excess AIDS-events/deaths in Eastern Europe. Country-level estimates of excess events ranged from 17 AIDS-events/deaths (95%CI 0-533) in Denmark to 10,357 (95%CI 7768-147,448) in Russia. CONCLUSIONS: Across countries in Europe, the burden of LP was high, with the highest estimated number of LP and excess AIDS-events/deaths being in Eastern Europe. Effective strategies are needed to reduce LP and the attributable morbidity and mortality that could be potentially avoided.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Adulto , Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Estudos de Coortes , Diagnóstico Tardio , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Morbidade , Análise de Sobrevida
2.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e209, 2020 09 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32912363

RESUMO

Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic association between influenza mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality rates in the European context. We considered the 3-year average influenza (2014-2016) and COVID-19 (31 May 2020) crude mortality rates in 34 countries using EUROSTAT and ECDC databases and performed correlation and regression analyses. The two variables - log transformed, showed significant Spearman's correlation ρ = 0.439 (P = 0.01), and regression coefficients, b = 0.743 (95% confidence interval, 0.272-1.214; R2 = 0.244; P = 0.003), b = 0.472 (95% confidence interval, 0.067-0.878; R2 = 0.549; P = 0.02), unadjusted and adjusted for confounders (population size and cardiovascular disease mortality), respectively. Common significant determinants of both COVID-19 and influenza mortality rates were life expectancy, influenza vaccination in the elderly (direct associations), number of hospital beds per population unit and crude cardiovascular disease mortality rate (inverse associations). This analysis suggests that influenza mortality rates were independently associated with COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe, with implications for public health preparedness, and implies preliminary undetected SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Ecologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias
3.
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med ; 28(1): 94, 2020 Sep 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32962739

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: COVID-19, the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, is challenging healthcare systems worldwide. Little is known about problems faced by emergency medical services-particularly helicopter services-caring for suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients. We aimed to describe the issues faced by air ambulance services in Europe as they transport potential COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Nine different HEMS providers in seven different countries across Europe were invited to share their experiences and to report their data regarding the care, transport, and safety measures in suspected or confirmed COVID-19 missions. Six air ambulance providers in six countries agreed and reported their data regarding development of special procedures and safety instructions in preparation for the COVID-19 pandemic. Four providers agreed to provide mission related data. Three hundred eighty-five COVID-19-related missions were analysed, including 119 primary transport missions and 266 interfacility transport missions. RESULTS: All providers had developed special procedures and safety instructions in preparation for COVID-19. Ground transport was the preferred mode of transport in primary missions, whereas air transport was preferred for interfacility transport. In some countries the transport of COVID-19 patients by regular air ambulance services was avoided. Patients in interfacility transport missions had a significantly higher median (range) NACA Score 4 (2-5) compared with 3 (1-7), needed significantly more medical interventions, were significantly younger (59.6 ± 16 vs 65 ± 21 years), and were significantly more often male (73% vs 60.5%). CONCLUSIONS: All participating air ambulance providers were prepared for COVID-19. Safe care and transport of suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients is achievable. Most patients on primary missions were transported by ground. These patients were less sick than interfacility transport patients, for whom air transport was the preferred method.


Assuntos
Resgate Aéreo/organização & administração , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/organização & administração , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Transporte de Pacientes/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos
4.
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci ; 24(17): 9216-9225, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32965017

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The weather allied conditions have an impact on air, water, soil, food, ecosystem, feelings, behaviors, and pattern of health and disease. The present study aims to investigate the impact of heat and humidity on the daily basis incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We selected 10 European countries, Russia, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Belarus. This region has a relatively low temperature and high humidity, and has homogenous European ethnicity with almost similar socioeconomic culture and health care system. The data on COVID-19 pandemic including daily new cases and new deaths were recorded from World Health Organization (WHO). The information on daily temperature and humidity was obtained from world climate web "Time and Date". The daily cases, deaths, temperature and humidity were recorded from the date of appearance of first case of "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" in the European region, from Jan 27, 2020 to July 17, 2020. RESULTS: In 10 European countries, (Russia, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Belarus), the daily basis mean temperature from Jan 27, 2020 to July 17, 2020 was 17.07±0.18°C, and humidity was 54.78±0.47%. The overall results revealed a significant inverse correlation between humidity and the number of cases (r= -0.134, p<0.001) and deaths (r= -0.126, p<0.001). Moreover, an increase in temperature was linked with an increase in the number of cases (r=0.062, p=0.013) and deaths (r=0.118, p<0.001). The regression analysis results further revealed that with an increase of 1% humidity the number of cases (ß = -15.90, p<0.001) and deaths (ß=-1.56, p<0.001) reduced significantly. Whereas, with an increase of 1°C in temperature the number of cases (ß = 20.65, p<0.001) and deaths (ß = 3.71, p<0.001) increased significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Increase in relative humidity was associated with a decrease in the number of daily cases and deaths, however, a rise in temperature was allied with an upsurge in the number of daily cases and daily deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic in European countries. The study findings on weather events and COVID-19 pandemic have an impact at European regional levels to project the incidence and mortality trends with regional weather events to enhance public health readiness and assist in planning to fight against this pandemic situation.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Umidade , Incidência , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Análise de Regressão , Taxa de Sobrevida , Temperatura
6.
Adv Exp Med Biol ; 1268: 123-139, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32918216

RESUMO

Melanoma and keratinocyte skin cancer (KSC) are the most common types of cancer in White-skinned populations. Both tumor entities showed increasing incidence rates worldwide but stable or decreasing mortality rates. Rising incidence rates of cutaneous melanoma (CM) and KSC are largely attributed to increasing exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, the main causal risk factor for skin cancer.Incidence rates of KSC, comprising of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), are much higher than that of melanoma. BCC development is mainly the cause of an intensive UV exposure in childhood and adolescence, while SCC development is related to chronic, cumulative UV exposure over decades. Although mortality is relatively low, KSC is an increasing problem for health care services causing significant morbidity.Cutaneous melanoma is rapidly increasing in White populations, with an estimated annual increase of around 3-7% over the past decades. In contrast to SCC, melanoma risk is associated with intermittent and chronic exposure to sunlight. The frequency of its occurrence is closely associated with the constitutive color of the skin and the geographical zone. Changes in outdoor activities and exposure to sunlight during the past 70 years are an important factor for the increasing incidence of melanoma. Mortality rates of melanoma show stabilization in the USA, Australia, and in European countries. In the USA even dropping numbers of death cases were recently reported, probably reflecting efficacy of the new systemic treatments.Among younger cohorts in some populations (e.g., Australia and New Zealand,), stabilizing or declining incidence rates of CM are observed, potentially caused by primary prevention campaigns aimed at reducing UV exposure. In contrast, incidence rates of CM are still rising in most European countries and in the USA. Ongoing trends towards thinner melanoma are largely ascribed to earlier detection.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Cutâneas/epidemiologia , Austrália/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Melanoma/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação/epidemiologia , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
7.
Ann Agric Environ Med ; 27(3): 343-347, 2020 Sep 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32955212

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Fungal keratitis is a severe condition which may lead to blindness. Fungal keratitis, also known mycotic keratitis or keratomycosis, has worldwide distribution, but is more common in tropical climates compared to moderate zones. In recent years, there have been several studies suggesting an increase in the number of mycotic keratitis cases in countries with a moderate climate. There is little data available with no literature review concerning fungal keratitis in European countries. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the causes, presentation, and clinico-pathological associations of fungal keratitis in a retrospective series of patients referred to the Department of Ophthalmology of the Railway Hospital in Katowice, south-west Poland, and comparing the findings to previously published studies in peer reviewed articles from other European countries published between 2000-2019. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were collected using the medical records of patients with fungal keratitis. Risk factors, clinical manifestation and treatment results were analysed from 45 patients (45 eyes) with fungal keratitis treated in the Department of Ophthalmology of Railway Hospital in Katowice between January 2013 - December 2017. The factors affecting the development of infection, visual acuity at baseline and at the end of treatment, as well as treatment method selection, were analysed. Literature review was performed using the Medline, Pubmed, Embase databases and Google scholar. The inclusion criteria were peer reviewed papers published between 2000-2019 which reported data from patients with fungal keratitis in at least one European country. 11 peer reviewed articles which matched the inclusion criteria were analysed. RESULTS: The mean BCVA of patients treated in the Department of Ophthalmology of the Railway Hospital in Katowice upon diagnosis was 2.3 (logMAR), compared to 1.95 (logMAR) at the end of treatment. Pearson's chi-squared test was used to establish the final mean BCVA in eyes with keratitis caused by Candida spp. compared with keratitis caused by Filamentous spp. The reviewed articles showed poor results of treatment and diagnostic difficulties in fungal keratitis. CONCLUSIONS: Fungal keratitis is a significant diagnostic and therapeutic challenge and may occur in rural and urban areas. Early and accurate diagnosis followed by proper antifungal treatment can prevent blindness and improve BCVA results.


Assuntos
Infecções Oculares Fúngicas/epidemiologia , Ceratite/epidemiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Infecções Oculares Fúngicas/diagnóstico , Infecções Oculares Fúngicas/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções Oculares Fúngicas/microbiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Ceratite/diagnóstico , Ceratite/tratamento farmacológico , Ceratite/microbiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polônia/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco
8.
Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz ; 115: e200183, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32901696

RESUMO

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rapidly spread around the world during 2020, but the precise time in which the virus began to spread locally is difficult to trace for most countries. Here, we estimate the probable onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 for heavily affected countries from Western Europe and the Americas on the basis of the cumulative number of deaths reported during the early stage of the epidemic. Our results support that SARS-CoV-2 probably started to spread locally in all western countries analysed between mid-January and mid-February 2020, thus long before community transmission was officially recognised and control measures were implemented.


Assuntos
Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , América/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/transmissão , Infecções Comunitárias Adquiridas/virologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão
9.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 20(1): 235, 2020 09 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32958001

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Data analysis and visualization is an essential tool for exploring and communicating findings in medical research, especially in epidemiological surveillance. RESULTS: Data on COVID-19 diagnosed cases and mortality, from January 1st, 2020, onwards is collected automatically from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). We have developed a Shiny application for data visualization and analysis of several indicators to follow the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using ECDC data. A country-specific tool for basic epidemiological surveillance, in an interactive and user-friendly manner. The available analyses cover time trends and projections, attack rate, population fatality rate, case fatality rate, and basic reproduction number. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID19-World online web application systematically produces daily updated country-specific data visualization and analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic worldwide. The application may help for a better understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic worldwide.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Biologia Computacional/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Visualização de Dados , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Betacoronavirus/fisiologia , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , Internet , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Vigilância da População/métodos
10.
Rev Prat ; 70(3): 333-335, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32877072

RESUMO

West nile virus infection: an emerging arbovirosis in france and europe. West Nile virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, transmitted to humans by mosquitoes of the genus Culex, from an avian reservoir. Humans are accidental hosts and there is no report of human-to-human transmission, except via blood transfusion or organ transplantation. In 2018, Europe experienced the largest outbreak of West Nile virus infection ever. In France, 27 cases were identified including 7 neuro invasive forms. This infection is asymptomatic in most cases but may also manifest as an isolated fever or flu-like syndrome. In about 1% of cases, neuro-invasive forms with meningitis, meningoencephalitis or flaccid paralysis can be observed. There is no specific treatment for this viral infection. Prevention is based on the prevention of mosquito bites, but also on enhanced epidemiological surveillance during the period of circulation of the virus in Europe (from spring to autumn).


Assuntos
Culex , Febre do Nilo Ocidental , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental , Animais , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia
11.
J Int Med Res ; 48(8): 300060520938943, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32865095

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in December 2019 and continues to spread worldwide. Rapid and accurate identification of suspected cases is critical in slowing spread of the virus that causes the disease. We aimed to highlight discrepancies in the various criteria used by international agencies and highly impacted individual countries around the world. METHODS: We reviewed the criteria for identifying a suspected case of COVID-19 used by two international public health agencies and 10 countries across Asia, Europe, and North America. The criteria included information on the clinical causes of illness and epidemiological risk factors. Non-English language guidelines were translated into English by a co-author who is fluent in that particular language. RESULTS: Although most criteria are modifications of World Health Organization recommendations, the specific clinical features and epidemiological risks for triggering evaluation of patients with suspected COVID-19 differed widely among countries. The rationale for these differences may be related to each country's resources, politics, experience with previous outbreaks or pandemics, health insurance system, COVID-19 outbreak severity, and other undetermined factors. CONCLUSION: We found no consensus regarding the best diagnostic criteria for identifying a suspected case of COVID-19.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Regulamento Sanitário Internacional , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Saúde Pública/legislação & jurisprudência , Ásia/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional , América do Norte/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Estados Unidos , Organização Mundial da Saúde
12.
Lancet ; 396(10254): 830-838, 2020 09 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32877651

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Angina might persist or reoccur despite successful revascularisation with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and antianginal therapy. Additionally, PCI in stable patients has not been shown to improve survival compared with optimal medical therapy. Trimetazidine is an antianginal agent that improves energy metabolism of the ischaemic myocardium and might improve outcomes and symptoms of patients who recently had a PCI. In this study, we aimed to assess the long-term potential benefits and safety of trimetazidine added to standard evidence-based medical treatment in patients who had a recent successful PCI. METHODS: We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, event-driven trial of trimetazidine added to standard background therapy in patients who had undergone successful PCI at 365 centres in 27 countries across Europe, South America, Asia, and north Africa. Eligible patients were aged 21-85 years and had had either elective PCI for stable angina or urgent PCI for unstable angina or non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction less than 30 days before randomisation. Patients were randomly assigned by an interactive web response system to oral trimetazidine 35 mg modified-release twice daily or matching placebo. Participants, study investigators, and all study staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary efficacy endpoint was a composite of cardiac death; hospital admission for a cardiac event; recurrence or persistence of angina requiring an addition, switch, or increase of the dose of at least one antianginal drug; or recurrence or persistence of angina requiring a coronary angiography. Efficacy analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. Safety was assessed in all patients who had at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT 2010-022134-89). FINDINGS: From Sept 17, 2014, to June 15, 2016, 6007 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either trimetazidine (n=2998) or placebo (n=3009). After a median follow-up of 47·5 months (IQR 42·3-53·3), incidence of primary endpoint events was not significantly different between the trimetazidine group (700 [23·3%] patients) and the placebo group (714 [23·7%]; hazard ratio 0·98 [95% CI 0·88-1·09], p=0·73). When analysed individually, there were no significant differences in the incidence of the components of the primary endpoint between the treatment groups. Similar results were obtained when patients were categorised according to whether they had an elective or urgent PCI. 1219 (40·9%) of 2983 patients in the trimetazidine group and 1230 (41·1%) of 2990 patients in the placebo group had serious treatment-emergent adverse events. Frequencies of adverse events of interest were similar between the groups. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that the routine use of oral trimetazidine 35 mg twice daily over several years in patients receiving optimal medical therapy, after successful PCI, does not influence the recurrence of angina or the outcome; these findings should be taken into account when considering the place of trimetazidine in clinical practice. However, the long-term prescription of this treatment does not appear to be associated with any statistically significant safety concerns in the population studied. FUNDING: Servier.


Assuntos
Infarto do Miocárdio sem Supradesnível do Segmento ST/terapia , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea/métodos , Trimetazidina/efeitos adversos , Vasodilatadores/efeitos adversos , Administração Oral , África do Norte/epidemiologia , Idoso , Angina Estável/terapia , Angina Instável/terapia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Angiografia Coronária/métodos , Angiografia Coronária/estatística & dados numéricos , Morte , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea/tendências , Placebos/administração & dosagem , Recidiva , Segurança , América do Sul/epidemiologia , Resultado do Tratamento , Trimetazidina/administração & dosagem , Trimetazidina/uso terapêutico , Vasodilatadores/administração & dosagem , Vasodilatadores/uso terapêutico
13.
Anticancer Res ; 40(10): 5895-5899, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32988920

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials had demonstrated local therapy, such as radiotherapy, can improve outcomes of patients with lung cancer with oligometastatic disease (OMD). However, the definition of OMD is not uniform and the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology (ESTRO) and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) proposed a new classification in 2020 comprising nine subtypes. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of this European classification for patients with lung OMD treated with definitive radical radiotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified eligible patients via an in-house database. Patient, disease, and treatment characteristics, as well as outcomes, were obtained via chart review plus peer review. Overall and progression-free survival were estimated via the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test was used in univariate analysis and Cox regression in multivariable analyses to investigate the prognostic significance of the subtypes of OMD. RESULTS: We identified 35 eligible patients with six different OMD subtypes treated from 2011 to 2019. After a median follow-up of 23 (range=2-88) months, the median progression-free and overall survival were 11 and 38 months, respectively. The prognosis for patients with the subtype 'induced oligoprogression' was statistically worse than for those without in both univariate (p=0.02) and multivariate (adjusted hazard ratio for death=4.8, 95% confidence interval=1.4-16.2, p=0.01) analyses. CONCLUSION: We found the subtype with induced oligoprogression in the European classification to be associated with worse survival. Further studies are needed to confirm our finding.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares/radioterapia , Prognóstico , Radioterapia (Especialidade)/normas , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Progressão da Doença , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/patologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/cirurgia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Metástase Neoplásica , Intervalo Livre de Progressão , Radiocirurgia/efeitos adversos
14.
Rev Med Suisse ; 16(708): 1822-1826, 2020 Sep 30.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32997454

RESUMO

Pyogenic-liver abscess is a relatively rare entity in Europe. Due to unspecific clinical and biological findings, the diagnosis can be difficult. Imaging by ultrasound, CT-scan or MRI is important to confirm the diagnosis and to determine further investigations and treatment. According to the characteristics of the abscess, a surgical intervention may be necessary, particularly is the abscess diameter is bigger than 5 cm. This can be done either by surgery or by percutaneous drainage (needle aspiration versus catheter drainage). Obtaining adequate microbiologic cultures is important to identify the responsible pathogens and their resistance profile before starting broad spectrum antibiotics. Antibiotic treatment should be adapted to microbiologic results. The recommended treatment duration is usually between 4 and 6 weeks according to clinical evolution.


Assuntos
Abscesso Hepático Piogênico , Drenagem , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Abscesso Hepático Piogênico/diagnóstico , Abscesso Hepático Piogênico/microbiologia , Abscesso Hepático Piogênico/cirurgia , Abscesso Hepático Piogênico/terapia
15.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 15828, 2020 09 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32985537

RESUMO

One of the biggest threats to humanity are pandemics. In our global society they can rage around the world with an immense toll in terms of human, economic and social impact. Forecasting the spreading of a pandemic is, therefore, paramount in helping governments to enforce a number of social and economic measures, apt at curbing the pandemic and dealing with its aftermath. We demonstrate that the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics provides an effective and simple way to investigate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different regions of the world. The framework also allows for reliable projections on the impact of travel limitations and social distancing measures on global epidemic spread. We test and calibrate it on reported COVID-19 cases while unveiling the mechanism that governs the delay in the relative peaks of newly infected cases among different regions of the globe. We discover that social distancing measures are more effective than travel limitations across borders in delaying the epidemic peak. We further provide the link to compartmental models such as the time-honoured SIR-like models. We also show how to generalise the framework to account for the interactions across several regions of the world, replacing or complementing large scale simulations.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Emigração e Imigração/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Distância Social , Betacoronavirus , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Viagem , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
16.
BMJ Open ; 10(9): e040569, 2020 09 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32994260

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: This protocol describes an observational study which set out to assess whether frailty and/or multimorbidity correlates with short-term and medium-term outcomes in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in a European, multicentre setting. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Over a 3-month period we aim to recruit a minimum of 500 patients across 10 hospital sites, collecting baseline data including: patient demographics; presence of comorbidities; relevant blood tests on admission; prescription of ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/immunosuppressants; smoking status; Clinical Frailty Score (CFS); length of hospital stay; mortality and readmission. All patients receiving inpatient hospital care >18 years who receive a diagnosis of COVID-19 are eligible for inclusion. Long-term follow-up at 6 and 12 months is planned. This will assess frailty, quality of life and medical complications.Our primary analysis will be short-term and long-term mortality by CFS, adjusted for age (18-64, 65-80 and >80) and gender. We will carry out a secondary analysis of the primary outcome by including additional clinical mediators which are determined statistically important using a likelihood ratio test. All analyses will be presented as crude and adjusted HR and OR with associated 95% CIs and p values. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been registered, reviewed and approved by the following: Health Research Authority (20/HRA1898); Ethics Committee of Hospital Policlinico Modena, Italy (369/2020/OSS/AOUMO); Health and Care Research Permissions Service, Wales; and NHS Research Scotland Permissions Co-ordinating Centre, Scotland. All participating units obtained approval from their local Research and Development department consistent with the guidance from their relevant national organisation.Data will be reported as a whole cohort. This project will be submitted for presentation at a national or international surgical and geriatric conference. Manuscript(s) will be prepared following the close of the project.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus , Idoso Fragilizado , Fragilidade , Multimorbidade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Saúde Pública/métodos , Qualidade de Vida , Adulto , Idoso , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Correlação de Dados , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Idoso Fragilizado/psicologia , Idoso Fragilizado/estatística & dados numéricos , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Estudos Multicêntricos como Assunto , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Análise de Sobrevida
17.
J Transl Med ; 18(1): 338, 2020 09 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32878627

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China and has become a public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11th, 2020 and the same month several Countries put in place different lockdown restrictions and testing strategies in order to contain the spread of the virus. METHODS: The calculation of the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Countries selected was made by using the data available at https://github.com/owid/covi-19-data/tree/master/public/data . Case fatality rate was calculated as the ratio between the death cases due to COVID-19, over the total number of SARS-CoV-2 reported cases 14 days before. Standard Case Fatality Rate values were normalized by the Country-specific ρ factor, i.e. the number of PCR tests/1 million inhabitants over the number of reported cases/1 million inhabitants. Case-fatality rates between Countries were compared using proportion test. Post-hoc analysis in the case of more than two groups was performed using pairwise comparison of proportions and p value was adjusted using Holm method. We also analyzed 487 genomic sequences from the GISAID database derived from patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 from January 2020 to April 2020 in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Sweden, UK and USA. SARS-CoV-2 reference genome was obtained from the GenBank database (NC_045512.2). Genomes alignment was performed using Muscle and Jalview software. We, then, calculated the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Countries selected. RESULTS: In this study we analyse how different lockdown strategies and PCR testing capability adopted by Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, UK and USA have influenced the Case Fatality Rate and the viral mutations spread. We calculated case fatality rates by dividing the death number of a specific day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection observed 14 days before and normalized by a ρ factor which takes into account the diagnostic PCR testing capability of each Country and the number of positive cases detected. We notice the stabilization of a clear pattern of mutations at sites nt241, nt3037, nt14408 and nt23403. A novel nonsynonymous SARS-CoV-2 mutation in the spike protein (nt24368) has been found in genomes sequenced in Sweden, which enacted a soft lockdown strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Strict lockdown strategies together with a wide diagnostic PCR testing of the population were correlated with a relevant decline of the case fatality rate in different Countries. The emergence of specific patterns of mutations concomitant with the decline in case fatality rate needs further confirmation and their biological significance remains unclear.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Mutação/genética , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Genoma Viral , Geografia , Humanos , América do Norte/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Análise de Sequência de DNA
18.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0238678, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941467

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the infection continues to grow, this could impact life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy. METHODS: From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific infection fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six prevalence rate assumptions ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of people infected by COVID-19, the number dying from it, and the number of deaths from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Southeastern Asia; and sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated. RESULTS: At a 10% COVID-19 prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Southeastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to an infection prevalence of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a 50% prevalence of COVID-19 infections under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in Southeastern Asia, and by 1 to 4 years in sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the COVID-19 infection prevalence rate remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner. INTERPRETATION: In regions with relatively high life expectancy, if the infection prevalence threshold exceeds 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy, resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations, would set a country back on its path of human development.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Expectativa de Vida , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adulto , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , América/epidemiologia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Países em Desenvolvimento , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Saúde Global , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalência
19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32911647

RESUMO

The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model's active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general-even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19-further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Física
20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32916973

RESUMO

Specific and older age-associated comorbidities increase mortality risk in severe forms of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We matched COVID-19 comorbidities with causes of death in 28 EU countries for the total population and for the population above 65 years and applied a machine-learning-based tree clustering algorithm on shares of death for COVID-19 comorbidities and for influenza and on their growth rates between 2011 and 2016. We distributed EU countries in clusters and drew a map of the EU populations' vulnerabilities to COVID-19 comorbidities and to influenza. Noncommunicable diseases had impressive shares of death in the EU but with substantial differences between eastern and western countries. The tree clustering algorithm accurately indicated the presence of western and eastern country clusters, with significantly different patterns of disease shares of death and growth rates. Western populations displayed higher vulnerability to malignancy, blood-related diseases, and diabetes mellitus and lower respiratory diseases, while eastern countries' populations suffered more from ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular, and circulatory diseases. Dissimilarities between EU countries were also present when influenza was considered. The heat maps of EU populations' vulnerability to diseases based on mortality indicators constitute the basis for more targeted health policy strategies in a collaborative effort at the EU level.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Coronavirus , Mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Idoso , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade
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