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2.
BMJ Open ; 11(9): e045579, 2021 09 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34518247

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether National Early Warning Scores (NEWS/NEWS2) could contribute to COVID-19 surveillance in care homes. SETTING: 460 care home units using the same software package to collect data on residents, from 46 local authority areas in England. PARTICIPANTS: 6464 care home residents with at least one NEWS recording. EXPOSURE MEASURE: 29 656 anonymised person-level NEWS from 29 December 2019 to 20 May 2020 with component physiological measures: systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, pulse rate, temperature and oxygen saturation. Baseline values for each measure calculated using 80th and 20th centile scores before March 2020. OUTCOME MEASURE: Cross-correlation comparison of time series with Office for National Statistics weekly reported registered deaths of care home residents where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death, and all other deaths (excluding COVID-19) up to 10 May 2020. RESULTS: Deaths due to COVID-19 were registered from 23 March 2020 in the local authority areas represented in the study. Between 23 March 2020 and 10 May 2020, there were 5753 deaths (1532 involving COVID-19 and 4221 other causes). We observed a rise in the proportion of above-baseline NEWS beginning 16 March 2020, followed 2 weeks later by an increase in registered deaths (cross-correlation of r=0.82, p<0.05 for a 2 week lag) in corresponding local authorities. The proportion of above-baseline oxygen saturation, respiratory rate and temperature measurements also increased approximately 2 weeks before peaks in deaths. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS could contribute to COVID-19 disease surveillance in care homes during the pandemic. Oxygen saturation, respiratory rate and temperature could be prioritised as they appear to signal rise in mortality almost as well as NEWS. This study reinforces the need to collate data from care homes, to monitor and protect residents' health. Further work using individual level outcome data is needed to evaluate the role of NEWS in the early detection of resident illness.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Escore de Alerta Precoce , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
3.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 1631, 2021 09 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34488695

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Hot weather leads to increased illness and deaths. The Heatwave Plan for England (HWP) aims to protect the population by raising awareness of the dangers of hot weather, especially for those most vulnerable. Individuals at increased risk to the effects of heat include older adults, particularly 75+, and those with specific chronic conditions, such as diabetes, respiratory and heart conditions. The HWP recommends specific protective actions which relate to five heat-health alert levels (levels 0-4). This study examines the attitudes to hot weather of adults in England, and the protective measures taken during a heatwave. METHODS: As part of a wider evaluation of the implementation and effects of the HWP, a survey (n = 3153) and focus groups, a form of group interview facilitated by a researcher, were carried out after the June 2017 level 3 heat-health alert. Survey respondents were categorised into three groups based on their age and health status: 'vulnerable' (aged 75+), 'potentially vulnerable' (aged 18-74 in poor health) and 'not vulnerable' (rest of the adult population) to hot weather. Multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with these groups taking protective measures. In-person group discussion, focused on heat-health, were carried out with 25 people, mostly aged 75 + . RESULTS: Most vulnerable and potentially vulnerable adults do not consider themselves at risk of hot weather and are unaware of the effectiveness of important protective behaviours. Only one-quarter of (potentially) vulnerable adults reported changing their behaviour as a result of hearing hot weather-related health advice during the level 3 alert period. Focus group findings showed many vulnerable adults were more concerned about the effects of the sun's ultra-violet radiation on the skin than on the effects of hot temperatures on health. CONCLUSIONS: Current public health messages appear to be insufficient, given the low level of (potentially) vulnerable adults changing their behaviour during hot weather. In the context of increasingly warmer summers in England due to climate change, public health messaging needs to convince (potentially) vulnerable adults of all the risks of hot weather (not just effects of sunlight on the skin) and of the importance of heat protective measures.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Temperatura Alta , Idoso , Atitude , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estações do Ano , Tempo (Meteorologia)
4.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 21(1): 951, 2021 Sep 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34507575

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of geographical variation in the use of mental health services in the UK and in international settings. It is important to understand whether this variation reflects differences in the prevalence of mental disorders, or if there is evidence of variation related to other factors, such as population socioeconomic status and access to primary care services. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional ecological study using Public Health England data. The unit of analysis was the population served by clinical commissioning groups (CCGs), National Health Service (NHS) catchment areas. The analysis explored associations between area characteristics and the number of people in contact with mental health services using regression modelling. Explanatory variables included age, gender, prevalence of severe mental illness (SMI), prevalence of common mental disorder (CMD), index of multiple deprivation (IMD), unemployment, proportion of the population who are Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME), population density, access to and recovery in primary care psychological therapies. Unadjusted results are reported, as well as estimates adjusted for age, prevalence of CMD and prevalence of SMI. RESULTS: The populations of 194 CCGs were included, clustered within 62 trusts (NHS providers of mental health services). The number of people in contact with mental health services showed wide variation by area (range from 1131 to 5205 per 100,000 population). Unemployment (adjusted IRR 1.11; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17; p < 0.001) and deprivation (adjusted IRR 1.02 95% CI 1.01 to 1.04; p < 0.001) were associated with more people being in contact with mental health services. Areas with a higher proportion of the population who are BAME (IRR 0.95 95% CI 0.92 to 0.99 p = 0.007) had lower service use per 100,000 population. There was no evidence for association with access to primary care psychological therapies. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial variation in the use of mental health services by area of England. Social factors including deprivation, unemployment and population ethnicity continued to be associated with the outcome after controlling for the prevalence of mental illness. This suggests that there are factors that influence the local population use of mental health services in addition to the prevalence of mental disorder.


Assuntos
Transtornos Mentais , Serviços de Saúde Mental , Estudos Transversais , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/terapia , Medicina Estatal
5.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 17723, 2021 09 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34475465

RESUMO

Recent studies have shown reduced physical activity at early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is a lack of investigation on longitudinal changes in physical activity beyond lockdowns and stay-at-home orders. Moreover, it is unclear if there is heterogeneity in physical activity growth trajectories. This study aimed to explore longitudinal patterns of physical activity and factors associated with them. Data were from the UCL COVID-19 Social Study. The analytical sample consisted of 35,915 adults in England who were followed up for 22 weeks from 24th March to 23rd August 2020. Data were analysed using growth mixture models. Our analyses identified six classes of growth trajectories, including three stable classes showing little change over time (62.4% in total), two classes showing decreasing physical activity (28.6%), and one class showing increasing physical activity over time (9%). A range of factors were found to be associated the class membership of physical activity trajectories, such as age, gender, education, income, employment status, and health. There is substantial heterogeneity in longitudinal changes in physical activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a substantial proportion of our sample showed persistent physical inactivity or decreasing physical activity. Given the well-established link between physical activity and health, persistent or increased physical inactivity is likely to have both immediate and long-term implications for people's physical and mental health, as well as general wellbeing. More efforts are needed to promote physical activity during the pandemic and beyond.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Exercício Físico , Saúde Mental , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
6.
BMJ Open ; 11(9): e042483, 2021 09 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34497074

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential impacts of successive lockdown-easing measures in England, at a point in the COVID-19 pandemic when community transmission levels were relatively high. DESIGN: We developed a Bayesian model to infer incident cases and reproduction number (R) in England, from incident death data. We then used this to forecast excess cases and deaths in multiple plausible scenarios in which R increases at one or more time points. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Publicly available national incident death data for COVID-19 were examined. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Excess cumulative cases and deaths forecast at 90 days, in simulated scenarios of plausible increases in R after successive easing of lockdown in England, compared with a baseline scenario where R remained constant. RESULTS: Our model inferred an R of 0.75 on 13 May when England first started easing lockdown. In the most conservative scenario modelled where R increased to 0.80 as lockdown was eased further on 1 June and then remained constant, the model predicted an excess 257 (95% CI 108 to 492) deaths and 26 447 (95% CI 11 105 to 50 549) cumulative cases over 90 days. In the scenario with maximal increases in R (but staying ≤1), the model predicts 3174 (95% CI 1334 to 6060) excess cumulative deaths and 421 310 (95% CI 177 012 to 804 811) cases. Observed data from the forecasting period aligned most closely to the scenario in which R increased to 0.85 on 1 June, and 0.9 on 4 July. CONCLUSIONS: When levels of transmission are high, even small changes in R with easing of lockdown can have significant impacts on expected cases and deaths, even if R remains ≤1. This will have a major impact on population health, tracing systems and healthcare services in England. Following an elimination strategy rather than one of maintenance of R ≤1 would substantially mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic within England.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Teorema de Bayes , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
7.
BMJ Open ; 11(8): e051977, 2021 08 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34426472

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe the accuracy of coding of ethnicity in National Health Service (NHS) administrative hospital records compared with self-declared records in maternity booking systems, and to assess the potential impact of misclassification bias. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from records of women giving birth in England (2015-2017). SETTING: NHS Trusts in England participating in a national audit programme. PARTICIPANTS: 1 237 213 women who gave birth between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2017. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Proportion of women with complete ethnicity; (2) agreement on coded ethnicity between maternity (maternity information systems (MIS)) and administrative hospital (Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)) records; (3) rates of caesarean section and obstetric anal sphincter injury by ethnic group in MIS and HES. RESULTS: 91.3% of women had complete information regarding ethnicity in HES. Overall agreement between data sets was 90.4% (κ=0.83); 94.4% when collapsed into aggregate groups of white/South Asian/black/mixed/other (κ=0.86). Most disagreement was seen in women coded as mixed in either data set. Rates of obstetrical events and complications by ethnicity were similar regardless of data set used, with the most differences seen in women coded as mixed. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of accuracy in ethnicity coding in administrative hospital records support the use of ethnicity collapsed into groups (white/South Asian/black/mixed/other), but findings for mixed and other groups, and more granular classifications, should be treated with caution. Robustness of results of analyses for associations with ethnicity can be improved by using additional primary data sources.


Assuntos
Grupos Étnicos , Medicina Estatal , Cesárea , Estudos de Coortes , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Hospitais , Humanos , Gravidez
8.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0256638, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34432849

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted surveillance activities for multiple pathogens. Since March 2020, there was a decline in the number of reports of norovirus and Campylobacter recorded by England's national laboratory surveillance system. The aim is to estimate and compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on norovirus and Campylobacter surveillance data in England. METHODS: We utilised two quasi-experimental approaches based on a generalised linear model for sequential count data. The first approach estimates overall impact and the second approach focuses on the impact of specific elements of the pandemic response (COVID-19 diagnostic testing and control measures). The following time series (27, 2015-43, 2020) were used: weekly laboratory-confirmed norovirus and Campylobacter reports, air temperature, conducted Sars-CoV-2 tests and Index of COVID-19 control measures stringency. RESULTS: The period of Sars-CoV-2 emergence and subsequent sustained transmission was associated with persistent reductions in norovirus laboratory reports (p = 0.001), whereas the reductions were more pronounced during pandemic emergence and later recovered for Campylobacter (p = 0.075). The total estimated reduction was 47% - 79% for norovirus (12-43, 2020). The total reduction varied by time for Campylobacter, e.g. 19% - 33% in April, 1% - 7% in August. CONCLUSION: Laboratory reporting of norovirus was more adversely impacted than Campylobacter by the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be partially explained by a comparatively stronger effect of behavioural interventions on norovirus transmission and a relatively greater reduction in norovirus testing capacity. Our study underlines the differential impact a pandemic may have on surveillance of gastrointestinal infectious diseases.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Infecções por Caliciviridae/diagnóstico , Infecções por Campylobacter/diagnóstico , Laboratórios/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19/virologia , Teste para COVID-19 , Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Caliciviridae/virologia , Campylobacter/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Campylobacter/epidemiologia , Infecções por Campylobacter/microbiologia , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Norovirus/isolamento & purificação , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação
9.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34444437

RESUMO

COVID-19 is disproportionately impacting people in low-income communities. Primary care staff in deprived areas have unique insights into the challenges posed by the pandemic. This study explores the impact of COVID-19 from the perspective of primary care practitioners in the most deprived region of England. Deep End general practices serve communities in the region's most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. This study used semi-structured interviews followed by thematic analysis. In total, 15 participants were interviewed (11 General Practitioners (GPs), 2 social prescribing link workers and 2 nurses) with Deep End careers ranging from 3 months to 31 years. Participants were recruited via purposive and snowball sampling. Interviews were conducted using video-conferencing software. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis through a social determinants of health lens. Our results are categorised into four themes: the immediate health risks of COVID-19 on patients and practices; factors likely to exacerbate existing deprivation; the role of social prescribing during COVID-19; wider implications for remote consulting. We add qualitative understanding to existing quantitative data, showing patients from low socioeconomic backgrounds have worse outcomes from COVID-19. Deep End practitioners have valuable insights into the impact of social distancing restrictions and remote consulting on patients' health and wellbeing. Their experiences should guide future pandemic response measures and any move to "digital first" primary care to ensure that existing inequalities are not worsened.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Pesquisa Qualitativa , SARS-CoV-2
10.
Ann Plast Surg ; 87(3): 265-270, 2021 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34397515

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dupuytren disease (DD) is a common fibroproliferative disease of the palmar fascia. The mainstay of DD treatment in England is surgery with either percutaneous needle fasciotomy, limited fasciectomy, or dermofasciectomy. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trends and geographical variation of primary DD surgery in England. METHODS: A longitudinal population-based cohort study was perfomed using the Hospital Episode Statistics database from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017. Directly standarized rates were estimated over time (between financial years 2007-2008 and 2016-2017) and by geographic region (by clinical commissioning groups [CCGs]; financial years 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2016-2017). The Office for National Statistics midyear population estimates were used as the reference population. MAIN FINDINGS: Primary DD surgery was undertaken at a steadily increasing rate from financial year 2007 to 2008, to 2016 to 2017 in England. There was a striking 3.6-fold variation in the rates of primary DD surgery among National Health Service CCGs in England place of residence. CONCLUSIONS: This significant variation in DD surgical treatment in England suggests a need for the development of standardized surgical practice across all CCGs and National Health Service hospitals, promoting equality of access to cost-effective health care.


Assuntos
Contratura de Dupuytren , Estudos de Coortes , Contratura de Dupuytren/epidemiologia , Contratura de Dupuytren/cirurgia , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Fasciotomia , Humanos , Medicina Estatal
11.
BMJ ; 374: n1931, 2021 08 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34446426

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between covid-19 vaccines and risk of thrombocytopenia and thromboembolic events in England among adults. DESIGN: Self-controlled case series study using national data on covid-19 vaccination and hospital admissions. SETTING: Patient level data were obtained for approximately 30 million people vaccinated in England between 1 December 2020 and 24 April 2021. Electronic health records were linked with death data from the Office for National Statistics, SARS-CoV-2 positive test data, and hospital admission data from the United Kingdom's health service (NHS). PARTICIPANTS: 29 121 633 people were vaccinated with first doses (19 608 008 with Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) and 9 513 625 with Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2 mRNA)) and 1 758 095 people had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. People aged ≥16 years who had first doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines and any outcome of interest were included in the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes were hospital admission or death associated with thrombocytopenia, venous thromboembolism, and arterial thromboembolism within 28 days of three exposures: first dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine; first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine; and a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. Secondary outcomes were subsets of the primary outcomes: cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, and other rare arterial thrombotic events. RESULTS: The study found increased risk of thrombocytopenia after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination (incidence rate ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.47 at 8-14 days) and after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (5.27, 4.34 to 6.40 at 8-14 days); increased risk of venous thromboembolism after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination (1.10, 1.02 to 1.18 at 8-14 days) and after SARS-CoV-2 infection (13.86, 12.76 to 15.05 at 8-14 days); and increased risk of arterial thromboembolism after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination (1.06, 1.01 to 1.10 at 15-21 days) and after SARS-CoV-2 infection (2.02, 1.82 to 2.24 at 15-21 days). Secondary analyses found increased risk of CVST after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination (4.01, 2.08 to 7.71 at 8-14 days), after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination (3.58, 1.39 to 9.27 at 15-21 days), and after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test; increased risk of ischaemic stroke after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination (1.12, 1.04 to 1.20 at 15-21 days) and after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test; and increased risk of other rare arterial thrombotic events after ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination (1.21, 1.02 to 1.43 at 8-14 days) and after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. CONCLUSION: Increased risks of haematological and vascular events that led to hospital admission or death were observed for short time intervals after first doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines. The risks of most of these events were substantially higher and more prolonged after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after vaccination in the same population.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/efeitos adversos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Trombocitopenia/epidemiologia , Tromboembolia/epidemiologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Medição de Risco , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto Jovem
13.
Fam Pract ; 38(Suppl 1): i3-i8, 2021 Aug 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34448485

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Primary care has played a central role in the community response to the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic. The use of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) has been advocated as a tool to guide escalation decisions in the community. The performance of this tool applied in this context is unclear. AIM: To evaluate the process of escalation of care to the hospital within a primary care assessment centre (PCAC) designed to assess patients with suspected COVID-19 in the community. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective service evaluation of all adult patients assessed between 30 March and 22 April 2020 within a COVID-19 primary care assessment centre within Sandwell West Birmingham CCG. METHOD: A database of patient demographics, healthcare interactions and physiological observations was constructed. NEWS2 and CRB65 scores were calculated retrospectively. The proportion of patients escalated was within risk groups defined by NHSE guidelines in place during the evaluation period was determined. RESULTS: A total of 150 patients were identified. Following assessment 13.3% (n = 20) patients were deemed to require escalation. The proportion of patients escalated with a NEWS2 greater than or equal to 3 was 46.9% (95% CI 30.8-63.6%). The proportion of patients escalated to secondary care using NHSE defined risk thresholds was 0% in the green group, 22% (n = 4) in the amber group, and 81.3% (n = 13) in the red group. CONCLUSION: Clinical decisions to escalate care to the hospital did not follow initial guidance written for the COVID-19 outbreak but were demonstrated to be safe.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Escore de Alerta Precoce , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Encaminhamento e Consulta/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Fidelidade a Diretrizes , Pesquisa sobre Serviços de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , SARS-CoV-2
14.
J Med Microbiol ; 70(8)2021 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34351258

RESUMO

Introduction. Enteric fever (caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi) frequently presents as an acute, undifferentiated febrile illness in returning travellers, requiring timely empirical antibiotics.Gap Statement. Determining which empirical antibiotics to prescribe for enteric fever requires up-to-date knowledge of susceptibility patterns.Aim. By characterising factors associated with antimicrobial resistance in cases of S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi imported to England, we aim to guide effective empirical treatment.Methodology. All English isolates of S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi 2014-2019 underwent antimicrobial susceptibility testing; results were compared to a previous survey in London 2005-2012. Risk factors for antimicrobial resistance were analysed with logistic regression models to predict adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for resistance to individual antibiotics and multi-drug resistance.Results. We identified 1088 cases of S. Typhi, 729 S. Paratyphi A, 93 S. Paratyphi B, and one S. Paratyphi C. In total, 93 % were imported. Overall, 90 % of S. Typhi and 97 % of S. Paratyphi A isolates were resistant to ciprofloxacin; 26 % of S. Typhi were multidrug resistant to ciprofloxacin, amoxicillin, co-trimoxazole, and chloramphenicol (MDR+FQ). Of the isolates, 4 % of S. Typhi showed an extended drug resistance (XDR) phenotype of MDR+FQ plus resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, with cases of XDR rising sharply in recent years (none before 2017, one in 2017, six in 2018, 32 in 2019). For S. Typhi isolates, resistance to ciprofloxacin was associated with travel to Pakistan (aOR=32.0, 95 % CI: 15.4-66.4), India (aOR=21.8, 95 % CI: 11.6-41.2), and Bangladesh (aOR=6.2, 95 % CI: 2.8-13.6) compared to travel elsewhere, after adjusting for rising prevalence of resistance over time. MDR+FQ resistance in S. Typhi isolates was associated with travel to Pakistan (aOR=3.5, 95 % CI: 2.4-5.2) and less likely with travel to India (aOR=0.07, 95 % CI 0.04-0.15) compared to travel elsewhere. All XDR cases were imported from Pakistan. No isolate was resistant to azithromycin. Comparison with the 2005-2012 London survey indicates substantial increases in the prevalence of resistance of S. Typhi isolates to ciprofloxacin associated with travel to Pakistan (from 79-98 %) and Africa (from 12-60 %).Conclusion. Third-generation cephalosporins and azithromycin remain appropriate choices for empirical treatment of enteric fever in most returning travellers to the UK from endemic countries, except from Pakistan, where XDR represents a significant risk.


Assuntos
Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Viagem , Febre Tifoide/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Tomada de Decisão Clínica , Estudos Transversais , Gerenciamento Clínico , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Pesquisas sobre Serviços de Saúde , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Febre Tifoide/história , Febre Tifoide/terapia , Febre Tifoide/transmissão , Adulto Jovem
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(33)2021 08 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34385318

RESUMO

Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method's effectiveness using a randomized controlled trial of the sort familiar throughout other areas of science. This study provides evidence that comes close to that ideal. It exploits a large-scale natural experiment that occurred by accident in England in late September 2020. Because of a coding error involving spreadsheet data used by the health authorities, a total of 15,841 COVID-19 cases (around 20% of all cases) failed to have timely contact tracing. By chance, some areas of England were much more severely affected than others. This study finds that the random breakdown of contact tracing led to more illness and death. Conservative causal estimates imply that, relative to cases that were initially missed by the contact tracing system, cases subject to proper contact tracing were associated with a reduction in subsequent new infections of 63% and a reduction insubsequent COVID-19-related deaths of 66% across the 6 wk following the data glitch.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Teste para COVID-19/estatística & dados numéricos , Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Comportamento Cooperativo , Confiabilidade dos Dados , Coleta de Dados , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Armazenamento e Recuperação da Informação , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde , Software , Fatores de Tempo
16.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(9): 2495-2497, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34193335

RESUMO

Invasive meningococcal disease incidence in England declined from 1.93/100,000 persons (1,016 cases) in 2010-11 to 0.95/100,000 (530 cases) in 2018-19 and 0.74/100,000 in 2019-20 (419 cases). During national lockdown for the coronavirus disease pandemic (April-August 2020), incidence was 75% lower than during April-August 2019.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Infecções Meningocócicas , Vacinas Meningocócicas , Neisseria meningitidis , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Infecções Meningocócicas/epidemiologia , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
17.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 700, 2021 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34294037

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Predicting hospital length of stay (LoS) for patients with COVID-19 infection is essential to ensure that adequate bed capacity can be provided without unnecessarily restricting care for patients with other conditions. Here, we demonstrate the utility of three complementary methods for predicting LoS using UK national- and hospital-level data. METHOD: On a national scale, relevant patients were identified from the COVID-19 Hospitalisation in England Surveillance System (CHESS) reports. An Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) survival model and a truncation corrected method (TC), both with underlying Weibull distributions, were fitted to the data to estimate LoS from hospital admission date to an outcome (death or discharge) and from hospital admission date to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission date. In a second approach we fit a multi-state (MS) survival model to data directly from the Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust (MFT). We develop a planning tool that uses LoS estimates from these models to predict bed occupancy. RESULTS: All methods produced similar overall estimates of LoS for overall hospital stay, given a patient is not admitted to ICU (8.4, 9.1 and 8.0 days for AFT, TC and MS, respectively). Estimates differ more significantly between the local and national level when considering ICU. National estimates for ICU LoS from AFT and TC were 12.4 and 13.4 days, whereas in local data the MS method produced estimates of 18.9 days. CONCLUSIONS: Given the complexity and partiality of different data sources and the rapidly evolving nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is most appropriate to use multiple analysis methods on multiple datasets. The AFT method accounts for censored cases, but does not allow for simultaneous consideration of different outcomes. The TC method does not include censored cases, instead correcting for truncation in the data, but does consider these different outcomes. The MS method can model complex pathways to different outcomes whilst accounting for censoring, but cannot handle non-random case missingness. Overall, we conclude that data-driven modelling approaches of LoS using these methods is useful in epidemic planning and management, and should be considered for widespread adoption throughout healthcare systems internationally where similar data resources exist.


Assuntos
COVID-19/terapia , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Análise de Dados , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Número de Leitos em Hospital , Planejamento Hospitalar/métodos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
18.
Future Microbiol ; 16: 863-870, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34319144

RESUMO

Aim: COVID-19 is a known risk factor for pulmonary embolism (PE). In this retrospective, multicenter study, we aimed to determine an optimal D-dimer cutoff to predict PE in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Materials & methods: A total of 193 patients underwent computerized tomographic pulmonary angiography imaging and were classified into PE positive and negative groups. Physiological, radiological and biochemical parameters were compared and receiver operator curve analysis was conducted to determine a predictive D-dimer threshold. Results: An optimal D-dimer cutoff of 2494 ng/ml was selected (Youden index: 0.906), giving a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 100-100) and specificity of 90.62% (95% CI: 90.5-90.8) for predicting PE. Conclusion: We propose that in the absence of other clinical signs, a D-dimer threshold of 2495 ng/ml could be used with high sensitivity and specificity to predict PE in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Produtos de Degradação da Fibrina e do Fibrinogênio/análise , Pulmão , Embolia Pulmonar , Idoso , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Pulmão/diagnóstico por imagem , Pulmão/patologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Embolia Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Embolia Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
19.
Euro Surveill ; 26(26)2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34212843

RESUMO

On 1 May 2018, a pertussis outbreak was declared and widespread vaccination recommended at an all-female secondary boarding school in southern England. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to determine the extent of pertussis transmission and identify risk factors in this semi-closed population. Of 504 students and staff assessed before post-exposure vaccination, 48% (n = 240) had evidence of pertussis. A sub-analysis of 409 students found that both residential dormitory (p = 0.05) and school year (p = 0.03) were associated with pertussis, with odds decreasing by 11% for each increase in school year (95% confidence interval: 0.7-20.2). Odds of pertussis were 1.7 times higher in those assumed to have received acellular vaccines for their primary course compared with those assumed to have received whole-cell vaccines (based on date of birth), although this difference was not significant (p = 0.12). Our findings support the need for timely, widespread vaccination following identification of cases among adolescents in a semi-closed United Kingdom (UK) setting and to review the evidence for the introduction of an adolescent pertussis booster to the UK routine vaccination programme.


Assuntos
Coqueluche , Adolescente , Surtos de Doenças , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Imunização Secundária , Vacina contra Coqueluche , Estudos Retrospectivos , Instituições Acadêmicas , Vacinação , Coqueluche/epidemiologia , Coqueluche/prevenção & controle
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