The relationship between the source of oral health information and dental caries: Findings from Child Dental Health Survey 2013 in England.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the magnitude and shape of the relationship between dental caries experience and the source of oral health information in England. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using the Child Dental Health Survey 2013 in England. Using a negative binomial model, the relationship between the number of decayed, missing, filled teeth (DMFT) of 12- and 15-year-old students and their primary source of oral health information was assessed. The sources of oral health information included parents, television, newspapers, the Internet, and social media. The adjusted model included age, sex, and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). R was used for data handling, analysis and reporting. RESULTS: Overall, 2,372 children were assessed (48.7% female, 48.6% 12-year-old). For the majority, the primary source of oral health information was their parents (89.5%) followed by the Internet (43.4%). Over nine-tenth of the participants had a DMFT = 0. The adjusted model showed that the prevalence rate of DMFT for the children whose primary source of information is their parents (0.45) or television (0.62) is lower than 1. The prevalence rate for the Internet (1.17) and social media (1.67) was higher than 1, but they were removed from the final model due to being non-statistically significant. Age and deprivation had a direct relationship with the prevalence rate of DMFT, meaning that 15-year-olds and children from more deprived areas had a higher prevalence rate of DMFT. CONCLUSION: Children whose primary source of oral health information was their parents or television had a lower DMFT. On the contrary, using the Internet or social media as the source of oral health information was associated with higher caries experience among schoolchildren.

Deploying an asthma dashboard to support quality improvement across a nationally representative sentinel network of 7.6 million people in England.

Every year, there are ~100,000 hospital admissions for asthma in the UK, many of which are potentially preventable. Evidence suggests that carefully conceptualised and implemented audit and feedback (A&F) cycles have the potential to improve clinical outcomes for those with chronic conditions. We wanted to investigate the technical feasibility of developing a near-real time asthma dashboard to support A&F interventions for asthma management in primary care. We extracted cross-sectional data on asthma from 756 participating GP practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) database in England comprising 7.6 million registered people. Summary indicators for a GP practice were compared to all participating RCGP RSC practices using practice-level data, for the week 6-12th-Mar-2023. A weekly, automated asthma dashboard with features that can support electronic-A&F cycles that compared key asthma indicators for a GP practice to RCGP RSC could be created ( https://tinyurl.com/3ydtrt85 ): 12-weeks-incidence 0.4% vs 0.4%, annual prevalence 6.1% vs 6.7%, inhaled relievers to preventer 1.2 vs 1.1, self-management plan given 83.4% vs 60.8%, annual reviews 36.8% vs 57.3%, prednisolone prescriptions 2.0% vs 3.2%, influenza vaccination 56.6% vs 55.5%, pneumococcal vaccination ever (aged ≥65 years) 90.2% vs 84.1% and current smokers 14.9% vs 14.8%. Across the RCGP RSC, the rate of hospitalisations was 0.024%; comparative data had to be suppressed for the study practice because of small numbers. We have successfully created an automated near real-time asthma dashboard that can be used to support A&F initiatives to improve asthma care and outcomes in primary care.

Understanding the challenges of identifying, supporting, and signposting patients with alcohol use disorder in secondary care hospitals, post COVID-19: a qualitative analysis from the North East and North Cumbria, England.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol-related mortality and morbidity increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in England, with people from lower-socioeconomic groups disproportionately affected. The North East and North Cumbria (NENC) region has high levels of deprivation and the highest rates of alcohol-related harm in England. Consequently, there is an urgent need for the implementation of evidence-based preventative approaches such as identifying people at risk of alcohol harm and providing them with appropriate support. Non-alcohol specialist secondary care clinicians could play a key role in delivering these interventions, but current implementation remains limited. In this study we aimed to explore current practices and challenges around identifying, supporting, and signposting patients with Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) in secondary care hospitals in the NENC through the accounts of staff in the post COVID-19 context. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 30 non-alcohol specialist staff (10 doctors, 20 nurses) in eight secondary care hospitals across the NENC between June and October 2021. Data were analysed inductively and deductively to identify key codes and themes, with Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) then used to structure the findings. RESULTS: Findings were grouped using the NPT domains 'implementation contexts' and 'implementation mechanisms'. The following implementation contexts were identified as key factors limiting the implementation of alcohol prevention work: poverty which has been exacerbated by COVID-19 and the prioritisation of acute presentations (negotiating capacity); structural stigma (strategic intentions); and relational stigma (reframing organisational logics). Implementation mechanisms identified as barriers were: workforce knowledge and skills (cognitive participation); the perception that other departments and roles were better placed to deliver this preventative work than their own (collective action); and the perceived futility and negative feedback cycle (reflexive monitoring). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19, has generated additional challenges to identifying, supporting, and signposting patients with AUD in secondary care hospitals in the NENC. Our interpretation suggests that implementation contexts, in particular structural stigma and growing economic disparity, are the greatest barriers to implementation of evidence-based care in this area. Thus, while some implementation mechanisms can be addressed at a local policy and practice level via improved training and support, system-wide action is needed to enable sustained delivery of preventative alcohol work in these settings.

Risk of emergency hospital admission related to adverse events after antibiotic treatment in adults with a common infection: impact of COVID-19 and derivation and validation of risk prediction models.

BACKGROUND: With the global challenge of antimicrobial resistance intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluating adverse events (AEs) post-antibiotic treatment for common infections is crucial. This study aims to examines the changes in incidence rates of AEs during the COVID-19 pandemic and predict AE risk following antibiotic prescriptions for common infections, considering their previous antibiotic exposure and other long-term clinical conditions. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY platform and analysed electronic health records from patients aged 18-110, prescribed antibiotics for urinary tract infection (UTI), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), sinusitis, otitis externa, and otitis media between January 2019 and June 2023. We evaluated the temporal trends in the incidence rate of AEs for each infection, analysing monthly changes over time. The survival probability of emergency AE hospitalisation was estimated in each COVID-19 period (period 1: 1 January 2019 to 25 March 2020, period 2: 26 March 2020 to 8 March 2021, period 3: 9 March 2021 to 30 June 2023) using the Kaplan-Meier approach. Prognostic models, using Cox proportional hazards regression, were developed and validated to predict AE risk within 30 days post-prescription using the records in Period 1. RESULTS: Out of 9.4 million patients who received antibiotics, 0.6% of UTI, 0.3% of URTI, and 0.5% of LRTI patients experienced AEs. UTI and LRTI patients demonstrated a higher risk of AEs, with a noted increase in AE incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher comorbidity and recent antibiotic use emerged as significant AE predictors. The developed models exhibited good calibration and discrimination, especially for UTIs and LRTIs, with a C-statistic above 0.70. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals a variable incidence of AEs post-antibiotic treatment for common infections, with UTI and LRTI patients facing higher risks. AE risks varied between infections and COVID-19 periods. These findings underscore the necessity for cautious antibiotic prescribing and call for further exploration into the intricate dynamics between antibiotic use, AEs, and the pandemic.

An observational study to understand burden and cost of care in adults diagnosed with refractory chronic cough (RCC) or unexplained chronic cough (UCC).

BACKGROUND: Refractory and unexplained chronic cough (RCC and UCC) necessitate frequent referral for specialist evaluations, but data on healthcare resource utilisation and costs are lacking. METHODS: This observational study enrolled adults with RCC or UCC attending a specialist cough clinic and included a control cohort, both from North West England, matched 1:5 for age, gender and smoking history. Primary and secondary care data were obtained for the 5 years prior to and 2 years post initial clinic visit (index). The primary endpoint was the total 5-year healthcare cost to the UK NHS pre-RCC or UCC diagnosis compared to the control cohort. RESULTS: Mean age at index for the 200 RCC or UCC consented patients was 62.2 ± 11.4 years; 71% were female, and 68% had never smoked. Mean duration of symptoms pre-diagnosis was 8.0 ± 9.4 years. Mean cough severity score was 63.7 ± 23.2 mm at index on a Visual Analog Scale, and Leicester Cough Questionnaire total score was 10.9 ± 4.1. GP data were available for 80 patients and mean total cost over the 5 years pre-diagnosis (index date) was 3.0-fold higher (95% CI 2.3, 3.9) than in the control cohort (p < 0.001). Most excess costs were related to visits and procedures carried out in secondary care. RCC- or UCC-associated costs decreased post-diagnosis, but remained higher than those of controls. CONCLUSION: Diagnosis of RCC or UCC requires significant health resource utilisation in the 5 years prior to a specialist clinic diagnosis. Resource utilisation was less after diagnosis, but remained higher than in a matched control cohort.

A multivariable analysis to predict variations in hospital mortality using systems-based factors of healthcare delivery to inform improvements to healthcare design within the English NHS.

Over the last decade, the strain on the English National Health Service (NHS) has increased. This has been especially felt by acute hospital trusts where the volume of admissions has steadily increased. Patient outcomes, including inpatient mortality, vary between trusts. The extent to which these differences are explained by systems-based factors, and whether they are avoidable, is unclear. Few studies have investigated these relationships. A systems-based methodology recognises the complexity of influences on healthcare outcomes. Rather than clinical interventions alone, the resources supporting a patient's treatment journey have near-equal importance. This paper first identifies suitable metrics of resource and demand within healthcare delivery from routinely collected, publicly available, hospital-level data. Then it proceeds to use univariate and multivariable linear regression to associate such systems-based factors with standardised mortality. Three sequential cross-sectional analyses were performed, spanning the last decade. The results of the univariate regression analyses show clear relationships between five out of the six selected predictor variables and standardised mortality. When these five predicators are included within a multivariable regression analysis, they reliably explain approximately 36% of the variation in standardised mortality between hospital trusts. Three factors are consistently statistically significant: the number of doctors per hospital bed, bed occupancy, and the percentage of patients who are placed in a bed within four hours after a decision to admit them. Of these, the number of doctors per bed had the strongest effect. Linear regression assumption testing and a robustness analysis indicate the observations have internal validity. However, our empirical strategy cannot determine causality and our findings should not be interpreted as established causal relationships. This study provides hypothesis-generating evidence of significant relationships between systems-based factors of healthcare delivery and standardised mortality. These have relevance to clinicians and policymakers alike. While identifying causal relationships between the predictors is left to the future, it establishes an important paradigm for further research.

Survival outcomes after breast cancer surgery among older women with early invasive breast cancer in England: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the influence of age, co-morbidity and frailty on 5-year survival outcomes after breast conservation surgery (BCS) with radiotherapy (RT) versus mastectomy (with or without RT) in women with early invasive breast cancer. METHODS: Women aged over 50 years with early invasive breast cancer diagnosed in England (2014-2019) who had breast surgery were identified from Cancer Registry data. Survival estimates were calculated from a flexible parametric survival model. A competing risk approach was used for breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Standardized survival probabilities and cumulative incidence functions for breast cancer death were calculated for each treatment by age. RESULTS: Among 101 654 women, 72.2% received BCS + RT and 27.8% received mastectomy. Age, co-morbidity and frailty were associated with overall survival (OS), but only age and co-morbidity were associated with BCSS. Survival probabilities for OS were greater for BCS + RT (90.3%) versus mastectomy (87.0%), and the difference between treatments varied by age (50 years: 1.9% versus 80 years: 6.5%). Cumulative incidence functions for breast cancer death were higher after mastectomy (5.1%) versus BCS + RT (3.9%), but there was little change in the difference by age (50 years: 0.9% versus 80 years: 1.2%). The results highlight the change in baseline mortality risk by age for OS compared to the stable baseline for BCSS. CONCLUSION: For OS, the difference in survival probabilities for BCS + RT and mastectomy increased slightly with age. The difference in cumulative incidence functions for breast cancer death by surgery type was small regardless of age. Evidence on real-world survival outcomes among older populations with breast cancer is informative for treatment decision-making.

Tracking changes in weight status in primary school children in Birmingham: an analysis of the National Child Measurement Programme - a retrospective cohort study.

One-in-four 4-5 years and more than one-in-three 10-11 years have excess weight in England. AIM: To identify characteristics associated with (1) having overweight, obesity and severe obesity at 11 years and (2) rapid weight gain (defined as increasing weight status by one or more body mass index (BMI) categories) between the ages of 4-5 and 10-11 years. METHOD: Using National Child Measurement Programme data, BMI at reception (4-5 years) and year 6 (10-11 years) were linked for 15 390 children. Weight categories were identified at both time points using BMI centile classifications.For each child, the number of BMI categories they crossed between reception and year 6 was identified. Logistic regression models were fitted to explore associations with sociodemographic characteristics of children with excess weight at age 10-11 years and with children experiencing rapid weight gain between reception and year 6. RESULTS: Overall, 61.9% of children remained in their original weight category; 30% whose weight increased by ≥1 weight categories and 11.7% by ≥2 weight categories. Only 7.8% had decreased ≥1 weight categories and 0.9% had decreased ≥2 weight categories.Adjusting for other sociodemographic characteristics, girls were less likely than boys to increase ≥2 weight categories between reception and year 6 (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.71; p<0.001). Compared to white children, Asian and mixed-ethnicity children had higher odds of rapid weight gain. Children with the highest deprivation were over 6 times more likely to increase ≥2 weight categories between reception and year 6 compared with children with the lowest deprivation (OR 6.1; 95% CI 1.92 to 19.10; p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Male children, children of Asian and mixed ethnicity and children with high deprivation are at higher risk of rapid weight gain and should be targeted for intervention.

Suicide in individuals with eating disorders who had sought mental health treatment in England: a national retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although studies have suggested a high risk of suicide in people with eating disorders, most studies have focused on suicidal ideation and attempts. There is little research on the characteristics of people with eating disorders who died by suicide, nor investigation of trends over time. We aimed to compare the characteristics of patients with eating disorders who died by suicide versus patients with other mental health diagnoses who died by suicide in England and to examine the trends in rates. METHODS: In this national retrospective cohort study, data on all people (aged ≥10 years) who died by suicide in England, UK, between Jan 1, 1997, and Dec 31, 2021, while under the care (within the previous 12 months) of mental health services were obtained from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health (NCISH), in which clinical information is collected via a questionnaire completed by the mental health professional responsible for the patient's care. Incidence of suicide in, and demographic, clinical, and treatment characteristics of, patients with a diagnosis of eating disorder (as recorded by the treating clinician) who died by suicide were compared with patients with other mental health diagnoses who died by suicide within the same timeframe using univariable logistic regression analysis. People with related lived experience were involved in the study design, implementation, interpretation, and writing of the manuscript. FINDINGS: Of 119 446 people for whom NCISH were notified of dying by suicide in England, 30 795 were under the recent care of mental health services, of whom 30 246 had known diagnoses and were included in analyses. Of these individuals, 10 373 (34%) were female and 19 873 (66%) were male; 2236 (8%) were of minority ethnicity; 382 (1%) had a diagnosis of eating disorder and 29 864 (99%) had another mental health diagnosis. Compared with patients with other mental health diagnoses who died by suicide, patients with eating disorders were younger (median age 33 years [range 15-90] vs 45 years [10-100]), more often female (343 [90%] female and 39 [10%] male in the eating disorders group; 10 030 [34%] female and 19 834 [66%] male in the other diagnoses group), and less likely to have evidence of conventional risk factors for suicide such as living alone (odds ratio [OR] 0·68, 95% CI 0·55-0·84). 22 (6%) of 382 were from a minority ethnic group. Patients with an eating disorder were characterised by a greater clinical complexity (eg, self-harm [OR 2·31, 95% CI 1·78-3·00], comorbidity [9·79, 6·81-14·1], and longer duration of illness [1·95, 1·56-2·43]), and were more likely to have died following overdoses (2·00, 1·62-2·45) than patients with other diagnoses. Childhood abuse (52 [37%] of 140) and domestic violence (18 [20%] of 91) were common in patients with eating disorders. Similar to patients with other diagnoses, most (244 [75%] of 326) of those with eating disorders who died by suicide were rated as low risk by clinicians at last contact. The number of suicide deaths in patients with eating disorders rose between 1997 and 2021 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·03, 95% CI 1·02-1·05; p<0·0001), but rates fell when accounting for the greater number of patients entering mental health services (IRR 0·97, 0·95-1·00; p=0·033). INTERPRETATION: This study was focused on people who sought help from mental health services. It did not consider subtypes of eating disorders or include a control group, but it does highlight possible areas for intervention. The comprehensive provision of evidence-based treatment for eating disorders and underlying conditions to address the clinical complexity in these patients might help to reduce suicide. Recognising limitations in clinical risk assessment, addressing early life experiences and current adversities, and appropriate prescribing might also be of benefit. Suicide prevention must remain a priority for eating disorder services and mental health care more widely. FUNDING: The Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership.

A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial of air filtration to prevent symptomatic winter respiratory infections (including COVID-19) in care homes (AFRI-c) in England: Trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory tract infections are readily transmitted in care homes. Airborne transmission of pathogens causing respiratory tract illness is largely unmitigated. Portable high-efficiency-particulate-air (HEPA) filtration units capture microbial particles from the air, but it is unclear whether this is sufficient to reduce infections in care home residents. The Air Filtration to prevent symptomatic winter Respiratory Infections (including COVID-19) in care homes (AFRI-c) randomized controlled trial will determine whether using HEPA filtration units reduces respiratory infection episodes in care home residents. METHODS: AFRI-c is a cluster randomized controlled trial that will be delivered in residential care homes for older people in England. Ninety-one care homes will be randomised to take part for one winter period. The intervention care homes will receive HEPA filtration units for use in communal areas and private bedrooms. Normal infection control measures will continue in all care homes. Anonymised daily data on symptoms will be collected for up to 30 residents. Ten to 12 of these residents will be invited to consent to a primary care medical notes review and (in intervention homes) to having an air filter switched on in their private room. The primary outcome will be number of symptomatic winter respiratory infection episodes. Secondary outcomes include specific clinical measures of infection, number of falls / near falls, number of laboratory confirmed infections, hospitalisations, staff sickness and cost-effectiveness. A mixed methods process evaluation will assess intervention acceptability and implementation. DISCUSSION: The results of AFRI-c will provide vital information about whether portable HEPA filtration units reduce symptomatic winter respiratory infections in older care home residents. Findings about effectiveness, fidelity, acceptability and cost-effectiveness will support stakeholders to determine the use of HEPA filtration units as part of infection control policies.

Illness Trajectories After Revascularization in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease: A Unified Approach to Understanding the Risk of Major Amputation and Death.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the illness trajectories of patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) after revascularization and estimate the independent risks of major amputation and death (from any cause) and their interaction. METHODS: Data from Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care were used to identify patients (≥50 years of age) who underwent lower limb revascularization for PAD in England from April 2013 to March 2020. A Markov illness-death model was developed to describe patterns of survival after the initial lower limb revascularization, if and when patients experienced major amputation, and survival after amputation. The model was also used to investigate the association between patient characteristics and these illness trajectories. We also analyzed the relative contribution of deaths after amputation to overall mortality and how the risk of mortality after amputation was related to the time from the index revascularization to amputation. RESULTS: The study analyzed 94 690 patients undergoing lower limb revascularization for PAD from 2013 to 2020. The majority were men (65.6%), and the median age was 72 years (interquartile range, 64-79). One-third (34.8%) of patients had nonelective revascularization, whereas others had elective procedures. For nonelective patients, the amputation rate was 15.2% (95% CI, 14.4-16.0) and 19.9% (19.0-20.8) at 1 and 5 years after revascularization, respectively. For elective patients, the corresponding amputation rate was 2.7% (95% CI, 2.4-3.1) and 5.3% (4.9-5.8). Overall, the risk of major amputation was higher among patients who were younger, had tissue loss, diabetes, greater frailty, nonelective revascularization, and more distal procedures. The mortality rate at 5 years after revascularization was 64.3% (95% CI, 63.2-65.5) for nonelective patients and 33.0% (32.0-34.1) for elective patients. After major amputation, patients were at an increased risk of mortality if they underwent major amputation within 6 months after the index revascularization. CONCLUSIONS: The illness-death model provides an integrated framework to understand patient outcomes after lower limb revascularization for PAD. Although mortality increased with age, the study highlights patients <60 years of age were at increased risk of major amputation, particularly after nonelective revascularization.

Ethnicity and suicide in England and Wales: a national linked cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding of ethnic disparities in suicide in England and Wales is poor as ethnicity is not recorded on death certificates. Using linked data, we examined variations, by sex, in suicide rates in England and Wales by ethnicity and migrant and descendant status. METHODS: Using the Office for National Statistics 2012-19 mortality data linked to the 2011 census from the Public Health Research Database, we calculated the age-standardised suicide rates by sex for each of the 18 self-identified ethnicity groups in England and Wales. We present rates by age, sex, and methods used for suicide by ethnic group. We estimated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression models for each minority ethnic group compared with the majority population. We involved people with lived experience in the research. FINDINGS: Overall, 31 644 suicide deaths occurred over the study period, including 3602 (11%) in people from minority ethnic backgrounds, with a mean age of death of 43·3 years (SD 17·0, range 13-96). Almost all minority ethnic groups had a lower rate of suicide than the White British majority, apart from individuals who identified as being from a Mixed heritage background or White Gypsy or Irish Travellers. In females who identified as Mixed White and Caribbean, the suicide IRR was 1·79 (95% CI 1·45-2·21) compared with the White British majority; in those who identified as White Gypsy or Irish Travellers, the IRR was 2·26 (1·42-3·58). Rates in males identifying as from these two groups and those identifying as White Irish were similar to the White British majority. Compared with the non-migrant population, migrants had a lower rate of suicide regardless of ethnicity, but in the descendant population, people from a Mixed ethnicity background had a higher risk of suicide than the White British majority. INTERPRETATION: There are ethnic disparities in suicide mortality in England and Wales, but the reasons for this are unclear. The higher rate in previously overlooked minority ethnic groups warrants further attention. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Health Care Costs After Genome-Wide Sequencing for Children With Rare Diseases in England and Canada.

Importance: Etiologic diagnoses for rare diseases can involve a diagnostic odyssey, with repeated health care interactions and inconclusive diagnostics. Prior studies reported cost savings associated with genome-wide sequencing (GWS) compared with cytogenetic or molecular testing through rapid genetic diagnosis, but there is limited evidence on whether diagnosis from GWS is associated with reduced health care costs. Objective: To measure changes in health care costs after diagnosis from GWS for Canadian and English children with suspected rare diseases. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was a quasiexperimental retrospective analysis across 3 distinct English and Canadian cohorts, completed in 2023. Mixed-effects generalized linear regression was used to estimate associations between GWS and costs in the 2 years before and after GWS. Difference-in-differences regression was used to estimate associations of genetic diagnosis and costs. Costs are in 2019 US dollars. GWS was conducted in a research setting (Genomics England 100 000 Genomes Project [100KGP] and Clinical Assessment of the Utility of Sequencing and Evaluation as a Service [CAUSES] Research Clinic) or clinical outpatient setting (publicly reimbursed GWS in British Columbia [BC], Canada). Participants were children with developmental disorders, seizure disorders, or both undergoing GWS between 2014 and 2019. Data were analyzed from April 2021 to September 2023. Exposures: GWS and genetic diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual health care costs and diagnostic costs per child. Results: Study cohorts included 7775 patients in 100KGP, among whom 788 children had epilepsy (mean [SD] age at GWS, 11.6 [11.1] years; 400 female [50.8%]) and 6987 children had an intellectual disability (mean [SD] age at GWS, 8.2 [8.4] years; 2750 female [39.4%]); 77 patients in CAUSES (mean [SD] age at GWS, 8.5 [4.4] years; 33 female [42.9%]); and 118 publicly reimbursed GWS recipients from BC (mean [SD] age at GWS, 5.5 [5.2] years; 58 female [49.2%]). GWS diagnostic yield was 143 children (18.1%) for those with epilepsy and 1323 children (18.9%) for those with an intellectual disability in 100KGP, 47 children (39.8%) in the BC publicly reimbursed setting, and 42 children (54.5%) in CAUSES. Mean annual per-patient spending over the study period was $5283 (95% CI, $5121-$5427) for epilepsy and $3373 (95% CI, $3322-$3424) for intellectual disability in the 100KGP, $724 (95% CI, $563-$886) in CAUSES, and $1573 (95% CI, $1372-$1773) in the BC reimbursed setting. Receiving a genetic diagnosis from GWS was not associated with changed costs in any cohort. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, receiving a genetic diagnosis was not associated with cost savings. This finding suggests that patient benefit and cost-effectiveness should instead drive GWS implementation.

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle.

Government policy in England aims for the elimination of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). This policy includes culling of European badger (Meles meles) to reduce cattle TB incidence. The rationale is based on a field trial, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) 1998-2005, which reported a substantial decrease in bTB herd incidence where badger culling had been implemented, in comparison to untreated control areas. The RBCT was undertaken because previous studies of reductions in badgers by culling, reported a possible association between bTB in badger and cattle, but none could directly show causation. The effect of intensive widespread (proactive) culling in the RBCT was reported in 2006 in the journal Nature. Analysis of an extensive badger removal programme in England since 2013 has raised concerns that culling has not reduced bTB herd incidence. The present study re-examined RBCT data using a range of statistical models. Most analytical options showed no evidence to support an effect of badger culling on bTB herd incidence 'confirmed' by visible lesions and/or bacterial culture post mortem following a comparative intradermal skin test (SICCT). However, the statistical model chosen by the RBCT study was one of the few models that showed an effect. Various criteria suggest that this was not an optimal model, compared to other analytical options available. The most likely explanation is that the RBCT proactive cull analysis over-fitted the data with a non-standard method to control for exposure giving it a poor predictive value. Fresh appraisal shows that there was insufficient evidence to conclude RBCT proactive badger culling affected bTB breakdown incidence. The RBCT found no evidence of an effect of culling on 'total' herd incidence rates. Total herd incidences include those confirmed as bTB at necropsy and those herds where there was at least one animal animal positive to the comparative intradermal skin test, the standard diagnostic test used for routine surveillance, but not confirmed at necropsy. This was also the case using the more suitable statistical models. Use only of 'confirmed' herd incidence data, together with a more recent (2013) published perception that RBCT data presented 'a strong evidence base….with appropriate detailed statistical or other quantitative analysis' should be reconsidered. The results of the present report are consistent with other analyses that were unable to detect any disease control benefits from badger culling in England (2013-2019). This study demonstrates one form of potential driver to the reproducibility crisis, in this case with disease control management in an increasingly intensified livestock industry.

Retrospective analysis of hospital electronic health records reveals unseen cases of acute hepatitis with unknown aetiology in adults in Oxfordshire.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of acute severe hepatitis of unknown aetiology (AS-Hep-UA) in children during 2022 was subsequently linked to infections with adenovirus-associated virus 2 and other 'helper viruses', including human adenovirus. It is possible that evidence of such an outbreak could be identified at a population level based on routine data captured by electronic health records (EHR). METHODS: We used anonymised EHR to collate retrospective data for all emergency presentations to Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in the UK, between 2016-2022, for all ages from 18 months and older. We investigated clinical characteristics and temporal distribution of presentations of acute hepatitis and of adenovirus infections based on laboratory data and clinical coding. We relaxed the stringent case definition adopted during the AS-Hep-UA to identify all cases of acute hepatitis with unknown aetiology (termed AHUA). We compared events within the outbreak period (defined as 1st Oct 2021-31 Aug 2022) to the rest of our study period. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were 903,433 acute presentations overall, of which 391 (0.04%) were classified as AHUA. AHUA episodes had significantly higher critical care admission rates (p < 0.0001, OR = 41.7, 95% CI:26.3-65.0) and longer inpatient admissions (p < 0.0001) compared with the rest of the patient population. During the outbreak period, significantly more adults (≥ 16 years) were diagnosed with AHUA (p < 0.0001, OR = 3.01, 95% CI: 2.20-4.12), and there were significantly more human adenovirus (HadV) infections in children (p < 0.001, OR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.27-2.47). There were also more HAdV tests performed during the outbreak (p < 0.0001, OR = 1.27, 95% CI:1.17-1.37). Among 3,707 individuals who were tested for HAdV, 179 (4.8%) were positive. However, there was no evidence of more acute hepatitis or increased severity of illness in HadV-positive compared to negative cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight an increase in AHUA in adults coinciding with the period of the outbreak in children, but not linked to documented HAdV infection. Tracking changes in routinely collected clinical data through EHR could be used to support outbreak surveillance.

Temporal trends of in-hospital mortality and its determinants following percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome in England and Wales: A population-based study between 2006 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data around drivers of changes in mortality over time. We aimed to examine the temporal changes in mortality and understand its determinants over time. METHODS: 743,149 PCI procedures for patients from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society (BCIS) database who were aged between 18 and 100 years and underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in England and Wales between 2006 and 2021 were included. We decomposed the contributing factors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021 using Fairlie decomposition method. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. RESULTS: Overall, there was an increase in the mortality proportion over time, from 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%) in 2006 to 3.1% (95% CI: 3.0% to 3.2%) in 2021. 61.2% of this difference was explained by the variables included in the model. ACS subtypes (percentage contribution: 14.67%; 95% CI: 5.76% to 23.59%) and medical history (percentage contribution: 13.50%; 95% CI: 4.33% to 22.67%) were the strongest contributors to the difference in the observed mortality proportions between 2006 and 2021. Also, there were different drivers to mortality changes between different time periods. Specifically, ACS subtypes and severity of presentation were amongst the strongest contributors between 2006 and 2012 while access site and demographics were the strongest contributors between 2012 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Patient factors and the move towards ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) PCI have driven the short-term mortality changes following PCI for ACS the most.

Associations between the neighbourhood food environment and food and drink purchasing in England during lockdown: A repeated cross-sectional analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence for the effect of neighbourhood food environment (NFE) exposures on diet in the UK is mixed, potentially due to exposure misclassification. This study used the first national COVID-19 lockdown in England as an opportunity to isolate the independent effects of the NFE exposure on food and drink purchasing, and assessed whether these varied by region. METHODS: Transaction-level purchasing data for food and drink items for at-home (1,221 households) and out-of-home consumption (171 individuals) were available from the GB Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods Panel for London and the North of England. The study period included 23rd March to 10th May 2020 ('lockdown'), and the same period in 2019 for comparison. NFE exposures included food outlet density and proximity, and NFE composition within a 1 km network buffer around the home. Associations were estimated for both years separately, adjusted for individual and household characteristics, population density and area deprivation. Interaction terms between region and exposures were explored. RESULTS: There were no consistent patterns of association between NFE exposures and food and drink purchasing in either time period. In 2019, there was some evidence for a 1.4% decrease in energy purchased from ultra-processed foods for each additional 500 m in the distance to the nearest OOH outlet (IR 0.986, 95% CI 0.977 to 0.995, p = 0.020). In 2020, there was some evidence for a 1.8% reduction in total take-home energy for each additional chain supermarket per km2 in the neighbourhood (IR 0.982, 95% CI 0.969, 0.995, p = 0.045). Region-specific effects were observed in 2019 only. DISCUSSION: Findings suggest that the differences in exposure to the NFE may not explain differences in the patterns or healthiness of grocery purchasing. Observed pre-pandemic region-specific effects allude to the importance of geographical context when designing research and policy. Future research may assess associations for those who relied on their NFE during lockdown.