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1.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 2896, 2024 02 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38316869

RESUMO

Several studies have investigated the association between the use of anti-cholesterol drugs and cancer risks, of which results have been inconsistent. This study included 67,768 participants from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. The data on anti-cholesterol drug use was collected using three questionnaires of the survey conducted every five years. We divided the participants into three groups according to the duration of the anti-cholesterol drug use. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). During the 893,009 person-years of follow-up from the 10-year follow-up survey, 8,775 participants (5,387 men and 3,388 women) were newly diagnosed with cancers. The duration of anti-cholesterol drug use was significantly associated with a decreased risk of liver cancer (HR:0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.64 in > 5 y group) and with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR:1.59, 95% CI 1.03-2.47 in > 5 y group). Moreover, a different trend was observed between men and women in the association with the risk of lung cancer. This study suggested that long-term use of anti-cholesterol drugs may have associations with a decreased incidence of liver cancer and with an increased incidence of pancreatic cancers.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Hepáticas , Neoplasias Pancreáticas , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Japão/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/epidemiologia , Incidência , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
2.
Eur J Med Res ; 29(1): 104, 2024 Feb 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38326881

RESUMO

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to find essential risk factors associated with liver function (LF) deteriorations within fluctuating long-term LF and their time-varying effects in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving hepatic radiotherapy and to identify high-risk groups for adverse LF deteriorations and their changes over time in facilitating the prevention of hepatic decompensation and the improvement of survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 133 HCC patients treated by hepatic radiotherapy were enrolled. A study design was conducted to convert posttreatment long-term LF with fluctuating levels over time to recurrent LF events using defined upgrades in a grading scale. The hazard ratios (HR) of pretreatment biochemical, demographic, clinical, and dosimetric factors in developing posttreatment LF events were estimated using the Cox model. Methodologies of the counting process approach, robust variance estimation, goodness-of-fit testing based on the Schoenfeld residuals, and time-dependent covariates in survival analysis were employed to handle the correlation within subjects and evaluate the time-varying effects during long-term follow-up. RESULTS: Baseline LF score before radiotherapy and gender were significant factors. Initial HR in developing LF events was 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.23; P < 0.001) for each increase of baseline LF score and kept almost constant over time (HR, 1.00; 95% CI 1.00-1.01; P = 0.065). However, no difference was observed regarding initial hazards for gender (HR, 1.00; 95% CI 0.64-1.56; P = 0.994), but the hazard for women got higher monthly over time compared with men (HR, 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07; P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: High-risk groups for adverse LF deteriorations after hepatic radiotherapy may change over time. Patients with poor baseline LF are vulnerable from the beginning. Women require prevention strategies and careful monitoring for deteriorations at a later stage.


Assuntos
Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/radioterapia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/radioterapia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patologia , Cirrose Hepática/patologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Retrospectivos
3.
PLoS One ; 19(2): e0294221, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38315703

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index has attracted attention as a predictive factor for cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with heart disease. However, its clinical value in patients with implanted pacemakers remains unclear. METHODS: This study included patients who underwent pacemaker implantation. The FIB-4 index was calculated based on blood tests performed during the procedure. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcomes included cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; composite of cardiovascular death, heart failure hospitalization, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke). The FIB-4 index was stratified into tertiles. Between-group comparisons were performed using log-rank tests and multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards. The predictive accuracy and cut-off value of the FIB-4 index were calculated from the receiver operating characteristic curve for all-cause mortality. Finally, based on the calculated cut-off values, the patients were divided into two groups for outcome validation and subgroup analysis. RESULTS: This study included 201 participants, of whom 38 experienced death during the observation period (median: 1097 days). All-cause mortality, non-cardiovascular death, and MACE differed significantly between groups stratified by the FIB-4 index tertiles (log-rank test: P<0.001, P<0.001, and P = 0.045, respectively). Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, the unadjusted hazard ratio was 4.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.05-11.0, P<0.001) for Tertile 3 compared to Tertile 1. After adjustment for confounding factors, including sex, the presence or absence of left bundle branch block at baseline, QRS duration during pacing, and pacing rate at the last check, the hazard ratio was 4.79 (95% CI: 2.04-11.2, P<0.001). The cut-off value of the FIB-4 index was 3.75 (area under the curve: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.62-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with pacemakers, the FIB-4 index may be a predictor of early all-cause mortality, with a cut-off value of 3.75.


Assuntos
Insuficiência Cardíaca , Humanos , Insuficiência Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/terapia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/etiologia , Ventrículos do Coração , Arritmias Cardíacas/complicações , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Fibrose , Prognóstico , Fatores de Risco
4.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 2747, 2024 02 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38302619

RESUMO

Injury mechanism is an important consideration when conducting clinical trials in trauma. Mechanisms of injury may be associated with differences in mortality risk and immune response to injury, impacting the potential success of the trial. We sought to characterize clinical and endothelial cell damage marker differences across blunt and penetrating injured patients enrolled in three large, prehospital randomized trials which focused on hemorrhagic shock. In this secondary analysis, patients with systolic blood pressure < 70 or systolic blood pressure < 90 and heart rate > 108 were included. In addition, patients with both blunt and penetrating injuries were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Mortality was characterized using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards models. Generalized linear models were used to compare biomarkers. Chi squared tests and Wilcoxon rank-sum were used to compare secondary outcomes. We characterized data of 696 enrolled patients that met all secondary analysis inclusion criteria. Blunt injured patients had significantly greater 24-h (18.6% vs. 10.7%, log rank p = 0.048) and 30-day mortality rates (29.7% vs. 14.0%, log rank p = 0.001) relative to penetrating injured patients with a different time course. After adjusting for confounders, blunt mechanism of injury was independently predictive of mortality at 30-days (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.06-3.20, p = 0.029), but not 24-h (HR 1.65, 95% CI 0.86-3.18, p = 0.133). Elevated admission levels of endothelial cell damage markers, VEGF, syndecan-1, TM, S100A10, suPAR and HcDNA were associated with blunt mechanism of injury. Although there was no difference in multiple organ failure (MOF) rates across injury mechanism (48.4% vs. 42.98%, p = 0.275), blunt injured patients had higher Denver MOF score (p < 0.01). The significant increase in 30-day mortality and endothelial cell damage markers in blunt injury relative to penetrating injured patients highlights the importance of considering mechanism of injury within the inclusion and exclusion criteria of future clinical trials.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Ferimentos não Penetrantes , Ferimentos Penetrantes , Humanos , Ferimentos Penetrantes/complicações , Ferimentos não Penetrantes/complicações , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Células Endoteliais , Estudos Retrospectivos
5.
Anticancer Res ; 44(2): 471-487, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38307572

RESUMO

The time-to-event relationship for survival modeling is considered when designing a study in clinical trials. However, because time-to-event data are mostly not normally distributed, survival analysis uses non-parametric data processing and analysis methods, mainly Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimation models and Cox proportional hazards (CPH) regression models. At the same time, the log-rank test can be applied to compare curves from different groups. However, resorting to conventional survival analysis when fundamental assumptions, such as the Cox PH assumption, are not met can seriously affect the results, rendering them flawed. Consequently, it is necessary to examine and report more sophisticated statistical methods related to the processing of survival data, but at the same time, able to adequately respond to the contemporary real problems of clinical applications. On the other hand, the frequent misinterpretation of survival analysis methodology, combined with the fact that it is a complex statistical tool for clinicians, necessitates a better understanding of the basic principles underlying this analysis to effectively interpret medical studies in making treatment decisions. In this review, we first consider the basic models and mechanisms behind survival analysis. Then, due to common errors arising from the inappropriate application of conventional models, we revise more demanding statistical extensions of survival models related to data manipulation to avoid wrong results. By providing a structured review of the most representative statistical methods and tests covering contemporary survival analysis, we hope this review will assist in solving problems that arise in clinical applications.


Assuntos
Análise de Sobrevida , Humanos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
6.
Neurología (Barc., Ed. impr.) ; 39(1): 20-28, Jan.-Feb. 2024. tab
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-229825

RESUMO

Objetivos Identificar posibles factores predictores de crisis epilépticas en acúmulos o estado epiléptico (EE) y evaluar si estos pacientes reciben una mayor intervención en urgencias. Metodología Análisis secundario del Registro ACESUR el cual es un registro observacional de cohortes multipropósito, prospectivo y multicéntrico de pacientes adultos con crisis epilépticas en 18 servicios de urgencias. Se recogen variables clínico-asistenciales. Se identifican factores y modelo de riesgo de presentar crisis en acúmulos o EE y se evalúa el efecto de intervención en servicios de urgencias extrahospitalarios y hospitalarios. Resultados Del registro ACESUR se analizan 186 (28%) con crisis en acúmulos (126; 19%) o EE (60; 9%) frente a 478 (72%) pacientes con crisis aislada. El modelo de riesgo de crisis en acúmulo o EE en urgencias incluyó la presencia de alta comorbilidad según índice de Charlson > 3 (OR: 1,60; IC95%: 1,05-2,46; p = 0,030), > 2 fármacos antiepilépticos habituales (OR: 2,29; IC95%: 1,49-3,51; p < 0,001) y crisis focal (OR: 1,56; IC95%: 1,05-2,32; p = 0,027). El ABC del modelo fue de 0,735 (IC95%: 0,693-0,777; p = 0,021). La intervención en pacientes con crisis en acúmulos y EE fue mayor en los servicios de urgencias extrahospitalarios (OR: 2,89; IC95%: 1,91-4,36; p < 0,001) y en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (OR: 4,41; IC95%: 2,69-7,22; p < 0,001). Conclusiones El modelo presentado podría ser una herramienta con valor predictivo de utilidad para identificar al paciente adulto con riesgo de presentar crisis en acúmulos o EE en urgencias. Estos pacientes recibieron una mayor intervención frente a pacientes con crisis epiléptica aislada por parte de los servicios de urgencias extrahospitalarios y más aún por los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios en nuestra muestra. (AU)


Objectives To identify possible predictors of seizure cluster or status epilepticus (SE) and to evaluate whether these patients receive greater interventions in emergency departments. Methodology We conducted a secondary analysis of the ACESUR Registry, a multipurpose, observational, prospective, multicentre registry of adult patients with seizures from 18 emergency departments. Clinical and care-related variables were collected. We identified risk factors and risk models for seizure cluster or SE and assessed the effect of interventions by prehospital emergency services and the hospital emergency department. Results We identified a total of 186 (28%) patients from the ACESUR registry with seizure cluster (126 [19%]) or SE (60 [9%]); the remaining 478 patients (72%) had isolated seizures. The risk model for seizure cluster or SE in the emergency department included Charlson Comorbidity Index scores ≥ 3 (OR: 1.60; 95% CI, 1.05-2.46; P = .030), ≥ 2 habitual antiepileptic drugs (OR: 2.29; 95% CI, 1.49-3.51; P < .001), and focal seizures (OR: 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05-2.32; P = .027). The area under the curve of the model was 0.735 (95% CI, 0.693-0.777; P = .021). Patients with seizure cluster and SE received more aggressive interventions both by prehospital emergency services (OR: 2.89; 95% CI, 1.91-4.36; P < .001) and at the emergency department (OR: 4.41; 95% CI, 2.69-7.22; P < .001). Conclusions This risk model may be of prognostic value in identifying adult patients at risk of presenting seizure cluster or SE in the emergency department. In our sample, these patients received more aggressive treatment than adult patients with isolated seizures before arriving at hospital, and even more so in the emergency department. (AU)


Assuntos
Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Convulsões/prevenção & controle , Estado Epiléptico/prevenção & controle , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
7.
Neurología (Barc., Ed. impr.) ; 39(1): 20-28, Jan.-Feb. 2024. tab
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-EMG-442

RESUMO

Objetivos Identificar posibles factores predictores de crisis epilépticas en acúmulos o estado epiléptico (EE) y evaluar si estos pacientes reciben una mayor intervención en urgencias. Metodología Análisis secundario del Registro ACESUR el cual es un registro observacional de cohortes multipropósito, prospectivo y multicéntrico de pacientes adultos con crisis epilépticas en 18 servicios de urgencias. Se recogen variables clínico-asistenciales. Se identifican factores y modelo de riesgo de presentar crisis en acúmulos o EE y se evalúa el efecto de intervención en servicios de urgencias extrahospitalarios y hospitalarios. Resultados Del registro ACESUR se analizan 186 (28%) con crisis en acúmulos (126; 19%) o EE (60; 9%) frente a 478 (72%) pacientes con crisis aislada. El modelo de riesgo de crisis en acúmulo o EE en urgencias incluyó la presencia de alta comorbilidad según índice de Charlson > 3 (OR: 1,60; IC95%: 1,05-2,46; p = 0,030), > 2 fármacos antiepilépticos habituales (OR: 2,29; IC95%: 1,49-3,51; p < 0,001) y crisis focal (OR: 1,56; IC95%: 1,05-2,32; p = 0,027). El ABC del modelo fue de 0,735 (IC95%: 0,693-0,777; p = 0,021). La intervención en pacientes con crisis en acúmulos y EE fue mayor en los servicios de urgencias extrahospitalarios (OR: 2,89; IC95%: 1,91-4,36; p < 0,001) y en los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios (OR: 4,41; IC95%: 2,69-7,22; p < 0,001). Conclusiones El modelo presentado podría ser una herramienta con valor predictivo de utilidad para identificar al paciente adulto con riesgo de presentar crisis en acúmulos o EE en urgencias. Estos pacientes recibieron una mayor intervención frente a pacientes con crisis epiléptica aislada por parte de los servicios de urgencias extrahospitalarios y más aún por los servicios de urgencias hospitalarios en nuestra muestra. (AU)


Objectives To identify possible predictors of seizure cluster or status epilepticus (SE) and to evaluate whether these patients receive greater interventions in emergency departments. Methodology We conducted a secondary analysis of the ACESUR Registry, a multipurpose, observational, prospective, multicentre registry of adult patients with seizures from 18 emergency departments. Clinical and care-related variables were collected. We identified risk factors and risk models for seizure cluster or SE and assessed the effect of interventions by prehospital emergency services and the hospital emergency department. Results We identified a total of 186 (28%) patients from the ACESUR registry with seizure cluster (126 [19%]) or SE (60 [9%]); the remaining 478 patients (72%) had isolated seizures. The risk model for seizure cluster or SE in the emergency department included Charlson Comorbidity Index scores ≥ 3 (OR: 1.60; 95% CI, 1.05-2.46; P = .030), ≥ 2 habitual antiepileptic drugs (OR: 2.29; 95% CI, 1.49-3.51; P < .001), and focal seizures (OR: 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05-2.32; P = .027). The area under the curve of the model was 0.735 (95% CI, 0.693-0.777; P = .021). Patients with seizure cluster and SE received more aggressive interventions both by prehospital emergency services (OR: 2.89; 95% CI, 1.91-4.36; P < .001) and at the emergency department (OR: 4.41; 95% CI, 2.69-7.22; P < .001). Conclusions This risk model may be of prognostic value in identifying adult patients at risk of presenting seizure cluster or SE in the emergency department. In our sample, these patients received more aggressive treatment than adult patients with isolated seizures before arriving at hospital, and even more so in the emergency department. (AU)


Assuntos
Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Convulsões/prevenção & controle , Estado Epiléptico/prevenção & controle , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
8.
Ren Fail ; 46(1): 2300730, 2024 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38343320

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major complication in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Previous studies have demonstrated that platelet distribution width (PDW) is associated with cardiovascular events in hemodialysis (HD) patients. In this study, we hypothesized that elevated PDW can predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in PD patients. METHODS: We recruited PD patients for a single-center retrospective cohort study from 1 January 2007, to 30 June 2020. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were made to determine the PDW cutoff value for predicting all-cause mortality. The propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to improve the equilibrium between groups. The relation of PDW with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were used to determine whether there was a linear relationship between PDW and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: A total of 720 PD patients were screened, and 426 PD patients were enrolled after PSM. After adjusting for confounders, Cox proportional hazards models showed that the PDW value was positively correlated with the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.162, 95% CI 1.057-1.278, p = 0.002 and HR = 1.200, 95% CI 1.041-1.382, p = 0.012). The adjusted RCS analysis further showed that the relationship of PDW with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was linear (p for nonlinearly = 0.143 and 0.062). CONCLUSION: Elevated PDW is independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in PD patients.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Diálise Peritoneal , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Diálise Peritoneal/efeitos adversos , Diálise Peritoneal/métodos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Diálise Renal , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
9.
Clin Cardiol ; 47(2): e24233, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38375935

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is great heterogeneity in the quality of care among hospitals in China, but studies on the performance measures and prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) are still deficient. HYPOTHESIS: Performance measures have been used as a guideline to clinicans, however, the association between them and outcomes among HF patients in China remains unclear. METHODS: We analyzed 4497 patients with HF from the Heart Failure Registry of Patient Outcomes study. Performance measures were determined according to the guidelines, and the patients were divided into four groups based on a composite performance score. Multiple imputation and Cox proportional-hazard regression models were used to assess the association between the performance measures and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Overall, only 12.5% of patients met the top 25% of the performance measures, whereas 33.5% of patients met the bottom 25% of the measures. A total of 992 (22.2%) patients died within 1 year, involving a larger proportion of patients who had met only the bottom 25% of the performance measures than had met the top 25% (27.0% vs. 16.3%, respectively). The patients who met the top 25% of the measures had a lower 1-year mortality rate (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.61-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: The association between performance measures and mortality appeared to follow a dose-response pattern with a larger degree of compliance with performance measures being associated with a lower mortality rate in patients with HF. Accordingly, the quality of care for patients with HF in China needs to be further improved.


Assuntos
Fidelidade a Diretrizes , Insuficiência Cardíaca , Humanos , Hospitais , Insuficiência Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/terapia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , China/epidemiologia , Sistema de Registros
10.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 3802, 2024 02 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38360974

RESUMO

Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is a clinical tool which can assess the heart's perfusion status, thereby revealing impairments in patients' cardiac function. Within the MPI modality, the acquired three-dimensional signals are typically represented as a sequence of two-dimensional grayscale tomographic images. Here, we proposed an end-to-end survival training approach for processing gray-scale MPI tomograms to generate a risk score which reflects subsequent time to cardiovascular incidents, including cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal ischemic stroke (collectively known as Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events; MACE) as well as Congestive Heart Failure (CHF). We recruited a total of 1928 patients who had undergone MPI followed by coronary interventions. Among them, 80% (n = 1540) were randomly reserved for the training and 5- fold cross-validation stage, while 20% (n = 388) were set aside for the testing stage. The end-to-end survival training can converge well in generating effective AI models via the fivefold cross-validation approach with 1540 patients. When a candidate model is evaluated using independent images, the model can stratify patients into below-median-risk (n = 194) and above-median-risk (n = 194) groups, the corresponding survival curves of the two groups have significant difference (P < 0.0001). We further stratify the above-median-risk group to the quartile 3 and 4 group (n = 97 each), and the three patient strata, referred to as the high, intermediate and low risk groups respectively, manifest statistically significant difference. Notably, the 5-year cardiovascular incident rate is less than 5% in the low-risk group (accounting for 50% of all patients), while the rate is nearly 40% in the high-risk group (accounting for 25% of all patients). Evaluation of patient subgroups revealed stronger effect size in patients with three blocked arteries (Hazard ratio [HR]: 18.377, 95% CI 3.719-90.801, p < 0.001), followed by those with two blocked vessels at HR 7.484 (95% CI 1.858-30.150; p = 0.005). Regarding stent placement, patients with a single stent displayed a HR of 4.410 (95% CI 1.399-13.904; p = 0.011). Patients with two stents show a HR of 10.699 (95% CI 2.262-50.601; p = 0.003), escalating notably to a HR of 57.446 (95% CI 1.922-1717.207; p = 0.019) for patients with three or more stents, indicating a substantial relationship between the disease severity and the predictive capability of the AI for subsequent cardiovascular inciidents. The success of the MPI AI model in stratifying patients into subgroups with distinct time-to-cardiovascular incidents demonstrated the feasibility of proposed end-to-end survival training approach.


Assuntos
Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Infarto do Miocárdio , Imagem de Perfusão do Miocárdio , Humanos , Imagem de Perfusão do Miocárdio/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Prognóstico , Tomografia Computadorizada de Emissão de Fóton Único/métodos
11.
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ; 15: 1326009, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38375194

RESUMO

Objective: The necessity of postmastectomy radiotherapy(PMRT) for patients with HR+/HER2 T1-2 N1M0 breast cancer remains controversial. We want to use explainable machine learning to learn the feature importance of the patients and identify the subgroup of the patients who may benefit from the PMRT. Additionally, develop tools to provide guidance to the doctors. Methods: In this study, we trained and validated 2 machine learning survival models: deep learning neural network and Cox proportional hazard model. The training dataset consisted of 35,347 patients with HR+/HER2- T1-2 N1M0 breast cancer who received mastectomies from the SEER database from 2013 to 2018. The performance of survival models were assessed using a concordance index (c-index).Then we did subgroup analysis to identify the subgroup who could benefit from PMRT. We also analyzed the global feature importance for the model and individual feature importance for individual survival prediction. Finally, we developed a Cloud-based recommendation system for PMRT to visualize the survival curve of each treatment plan and deployed it on the Internet. Results: A total of 35,347 patients were included in this study. We identified that radiotherapy improved the OS in patients with tumor size >14mm and age older than 54: 5-year OS rates of 91.9 versus 87.2% (radio vs. nonradio, P <0.001) and cohort with tumor size >14mm and grade worse than well-differentiated, 5-year OS rates of 90.8 versus 82.3% (radio vs. nonradio, P <0.001).The deep learning network performed more stably and accurately in predicting patients survival than the random survival forest and Cox proportional hazard model on the internal test dataset (C-index=0.776 vs 0.641) and in the external validation(C-index=0.769 vs 0.650).Besides, the deep learning model identified several key factors that significantly influence patient survival, including tumor size, examined regional nodes, age at 45-49 years old and positive regional nodes (PRN). Conclusion: Patients with tumor size >14mm and age older than 54 and cohort with tumor size >14mm and grade worse than well-differentiated could benefit from the PMRT. The deep learning network performed more stably and accurately in predicting patients survival than Cox proportional hazard model on the internal test. Besides, tumor size, examined regional nodes, age at 45-49 years old and PRN are the most significant factors to the overall survival (OS).


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Neoplasias da Mama/radioterapia , Neoplasias da Mama/cirurgia , Mastectomia , Radioterapia Adjuvante , Linfonodos/patologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
12.
Clin Transplant ; 38(2): e15264, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38375934

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The association between cannabis use and access to waitlisting, transplantation, and post-transplant outcomes remains uncertain. METHODS: Patients referred for kidney transplant (KT) to the University Health Network from January 1, 2003, to June 30, 2020, and followed until December 31, 2020, were included. Predictors of reported cannabis use were examined using a logistic regression model. The association between cannabis use and time to clearance for KT, undergoing KT, and post-transplant outcomes was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Among 3734 patients, the prevalence of reported cannabis use was 11.8%. Cannabis use was associated with a lower likelihood of KT clearance (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] .82 [95% confidence interval (CI): .72, .94]). Once cleared for KT, cannabis use did not predict the subsequent receipt of KT (aHR .92, [95% CI: .79, 1.08]). Among 2091 KT recipients, cannabis use was associated with a higher likelihood of biopsy-proven acute rejection (aHR 1.55, [95% CI: 1.06, 2.27]). The relative hazard of death-censored graft failure was similarly elevated (aHR 1.60 [95% CI: .95, 2.72]). Cannabis use did not predict total graft failure (aHR 1.33 [95% CI: .90, 1.96]), death with graft function (aHR 1.06 [95% CI: .59, 1.89]), or hospital readmission in the first-year post-transplant (aHR 1.26 [95% CI: .95, 1.68]). CONCLUSIONS: Cannabis users have less access to transplantation and an increased risk of acute rejection, possibly leading to more graft loss. Further studies are warranted to understand possible mechanisms for the increased risk of allograft immune injury among cannabis users.


Assuntos
Cannabis , Transplante de Rim , Humanos , Transplante de Rim/efeitos adversos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Modelos Logísticos , Rejeição de Enxerto/epidemiologia , Rejeição de Enxerto/etiologia , Fatores de Risco , Sobrevivência de Enxerto
13.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord ; 24(1): 107, 2024 Feb 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38355442

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Zinc regulates the oxidative stress and inflammatory signaling cascade and affects the development and deterioration of cardiovascular disease. We investigated the prognosis of developing heart failure in patients with myocardial infarction. METHODS: Patients with myocardial infarction (n = 243) were divided using the median value of zinc concentration on admission into low (< 66 µg/dL at admission, n = 111) and high zinc group (≥ 66 µg/dL at admission, n = 132). During follow-up (mean ± SD: 734 ± 597 days; median 691 days), admission due to heart failure was observed in 12 patients: 10 and 2 cases in the low and high zinc groups, respectively. RESULTS: The risk of admission due to heart failure was significantly higher in the low zinc than in the high zinc group (P = 0.0043). Relative to the high zinc group, the hazard ratio for admission due to heart failure was 15.7 (95% confidence interval 1.11-221, P = 0.042) via adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis. Even after propensity score matching, the risk of admission due to heart failure was significantly higher in the low zinc than in the high zinc group (P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Low serum zinc concentration may be a risk factor for admission due to heart failure after myocardial infarction.


Assuntos
Insuficiência Cardíaca , Infarto do Miocárdio , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Zinco , Prognóstico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/etiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
14.
BMC Psychiatry ; 24(1): 118, 2024 Feb 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38347467

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The circadian clock and endoplasmic reticulum stress signaling play important roles in oncogenesis and development of cancer. Sleep disorders have been linked to an elevated risk of mortality in general populations. Nonetheless, the evidence for the sleep disorders-mortality association among cancer patients is limited. We aimed to prospectively investigate the association of sleep disorders with all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among cancer individuals. METHODS: We assessed 3187 participants with cancer from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2016 cohorts with a median follow-up time of 83.0 months. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models showed that sleep disorders were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.23, 95%CI: 1.06,1.42), cancer mortality (HR 1.30, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.66), and cardiovascular disease mortality (HR 1.35, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.80). After the total group was stratified by gender, the high HRs were observed in men (P < 0.05), not in women. The correlation between sleep disorders and higher long-term mortality was also significant after individuals who died within 2 years of follow-up were excluded, with HR 1.24 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.45) in model I, HR 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.42) in model II for long-term all-cause mortality, HR (95%CI: 1.00, 1.74) in model I for long-term cancer mortality, and HR 1.5 (95%CI:1.12, 2.02) in model I, HR 1.45 (95%CI: 1.06, 1.99) in model II for long-term CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Sleep disorders were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and CVD mortality, as well as long-term mortality in cancer patients. Our finding underlies the importance of screening for sleep disorders for all cancer survivors and the urge to integrate sleep health as an important part of cancer care more effectively. Male individuals may be particularly vulnerable and could benefit from more frequent screening.


Assuntos
Sobreviventes de Câncer , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Neoplasias , Transtornos do Sono-Vigília , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Doenças Cardiovasculares/complicações , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Causas de Morte , Fatores de Risco , Estudos Transversais , Neoplasias/complicações , Transtornos do Sono-Vigília/complicações , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
15.
Front Immunol ; 15: 1341209, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38352864

RESUMO

Background: Aminooctylamine (ANO1) plays an oncogenic role in various cancers. However. its role in pancreatic cancer (PC) has rarely been studied. This study investigated the prognostic value of ANO1 and its correlation with the tumor microenvironment (TME) in PC. Methods: Consecutive patients with PC (n = 119) were enrolled. The expression of ANO1 in cancer cells, the expression of fibroblast activation protein (FAP) and alpha smooth muscle actin in cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs), and the numbers of CD8- and FOXP3-positive tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) were evaluated using immunohistochemistry. The prognostic value of ANO1 and its correlation with CAF subgroups and TILs were analyzed. The possible mechanism of ANO1 in the TME of PC was predicted using the the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. Results: The expression of AN01 was correlated with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival. Multi-factor analysis showed that high ANO1 expression was an independent adverse prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio, 4.137; P = 0.001). ANO1 expression was positively correlated with the expression of FAP in CAFs (P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with the number of CD8-positive TILs (P = 0.005), which was also validated by bioinformatics analysis in the TCGA dataset. Moreover, bioinformatic analysis of the TCGA dataset revealed that ANO1 may induce an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment in pancreatic cancer in a paracrine manner. Conclusion: ANO1 is a prognostic factor in patients with PC after radical resection. ANO1 may induce an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment in PC in a paracrine manner, suggesting that ANO1 may be a novel therapeutic target.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pancreáticas , Microambiente Tumoral , Humanos , Prognóstico , Neoplasias Pancreáticas/patologia , Linfócitos do Interstício Tumoral/metabolismo , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Anoctamina-1/genética , Anoctamina-1/metabolismo , Proteínas de Neoplasias/genética , Proteínas de Neoplasias/metabolismo
16.
J Cancer Res Clin Oncol ; 150(2): 67, 2024 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38302801

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There are potential uncertainties and overtreatment existing in radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer (PCa) patients, thus identifying optimal candidates is quite important. PURPOSE: This study aims to establish a novel causal inference deep learning (DL) model to discern whether a patient can benefit more from RP and to identify heterogeneity in treatment responses among PCa patients. METHODS: We introduce the Self-Normalizing Balanced individual treatment effect for survival data (SNB). Six models were trained to make individualized treatment recommendations for PCa patients. Inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to avoid treatment selection bias. RESULTS: 35,236 patients were included. Patients whose actual treatment was consistent with SNB recommendations had better survival outcomes than those who were inconsistent (multivariate hazard ratio (HR): 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.92; IPTW-adjusted HR: 0.77, 95% CI, 0.61-0.95; risk difference (RD): 3.80, 95% CI, 2.48-5.11; IPTW-adjusted RD: 2.17, 95% CI, 0.92-3.35; the difference in restricted mean survival time (dRMST): 3.81, 95% CI, 2.66-4.85; IPTW-adjusted dRMST: 3.23, 95% CI, 2.06-4.45). Keeping other covariates unchanged, patients with 1 ng/mL increase in PSA levels received RP caused 1.77 months increase in the time to 90% mortality, and the similar results could be found in age, Gleason score, tumor size, TNM stages, and metastasis status. CONCLUSIONS: Our highly interpretable and reliable DL model (SNB) may identify patients with PCa who could benefit from RP, outperforming other models and clinical guidelines. Additionally, the DL-based treatment guidelines obtained can provide priori evidence for subsequent studies.


Assuntos
Aprendizado Profundo , Neoplasias da Próstata , Masculino , Humanos , Neoplasias da Próstata/patologia , Próstata/patologia , Prostatectomia/métodos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Antígeno Prostático Específico , Estudos Retrospectivos
17.
BMC Womens Health ; 24(1): 120, 2024 Feb 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38360619

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant weight of difficulty, Ethiopia's survival rate and mortality predictors have not yet been identified. Finding out what influences outpatient breast cancer patients' survival time was the major goal of this study. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on outpatients with breast cancer. In order to accomplish the goal, 382 outpatients with breast cancer were included in the study using information obtained from the medical records of patients registered at the University of Gondar referral hospital in Gondar, Ethiopia, between May 15, 2016, and May 15, 2020. In order to compare survival functions, Kaplan-Meier plots and the log-rank test were used. The Cox-PH model and Bayesian parametric survival models were then used to examine the survival time of breast cancer outpatients. The use of integrated layered Laplace approximation techniques has been made. RESULTS: The study included 382 outpatients with breast cancer in total, and 148 (38.7%) patients died. 42 months was the estimated median patient survival time. The Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model was determined to be suitable using model selection criteria. Stage, grade 2, 3, and 4, co-morbid, histological type, FIGO stage, chemotherapy, metastatic number 1, 2, and >=3, and tumour size all have a sizable impact on the survival time of outpatients with breast cancer, according to the results of this model. The breast cancer outpatient survival time was correctly predicted by the Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to high- and middle-income countries, the overall survival rate was lower. Notable variables influencing the length of survival following a breast cancer diagnosis were weight loss, invasive medullar histology, comorbid disease, a large tumour size, an increase in metastases, an increase in the International Federation of Gynaecologists and Obstetricians stage, an increase in grade, lymphatic vascular space invasion, positive regional nodes, and late stages of cancer. The authors advise that it is preferable to increase the number of early screening programmes and treatment centres for breast cancer and to work with the public media to raise knowledge of the disease's prevention, screening, and treatment choices.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Humanos , Feminino , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Teorema de Bayes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Etiópia/epidemiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
18.
Int J Public Health ; 69: 1606585, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38362307

RESUMO

Objectives: The aim was to determine the association between self-reported health (SRH), allostatic load (AL) and mortality. Methods: Data derived from the Lolland-Falster Health Study undertaken in Denmark from 2016-2020 (n = 14,104). Median follow-up time for death was 4.6 years where 456 participants died. SRH was assessed with a single question and AL by an index of ten biomarkers. Multinomial regression analysis were used to examine the association between SRH and AL, and Cox regression to explore the association between SRH, AL and mortality. Results: The risk of high AL increased by decreasing level of SRH. The ratio of relative risk (RRR) of having medium vs. low AL was 1.58 (1.11-2.23) in women reporting poor/very poor SRH as compared with very good SRH. For men it was 1.84 (1.20-2.81). For high vs. low AL, the RRR was 2.43 (1.66-3.56) in women and 2.96 (1.87-4.70) in men. The hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality increased by decreasing SRH. For poor/very poor vs. very good SRH, the HR was 6.31 (2.84-13.99) in women and 3.92 (2.12-7.25) in men. Conclusion: Single-item SRH was able to predict risk of high AL and all-cause mortality.


Assuntos
Alostase , Nível de Saúde , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Autorrelato , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Risco , Mortalidade
19.
Biometrics ; 80(1)2024 Jan 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38364805

RESUMO

Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazard assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models are more flexible but often lack a clear inferential framework. We propose a Bayesian treed hazards partition model that is both flexible and inferential. Inference is obtained through the posterior tree structure and flexibility is preserved by modeling the log-hazard function in each partition using a latent Gaussian process. An efficient reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is accomplished by marginalizing the parameters in each partition element via a Laplace approximation. Consistency properties for the estimator are established. The method can be used to help determine subgroups as well as prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers in time-to-event data. The method is compared with some existing methods on simulated data and a liver cirrhosis dataset.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Teorema de Bayes , Cadeias de Markov , Método de Monte Carlo
20.
Nutrients ; 16(3)2024 Jan 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38337629

RESUMO

Associations between mineral intake and mortality in non-Western countries have not been studied adequately. This study evaluated these associations in the Golestan Cohort Study, featuring a Middle Eastern population. The mineral intake was estimated from the baseline food frequency questionnaire, adjusted by using the nutrient density method, and divided into quintiles. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the mortality. We analyzed 41,863 subjects with a mean age of 51.46 ± 8.73 years at the baseline. During 578,694 person-years of follow-up (median: 14.1 Years), 7217 deaths were recorded. Dietary calcium intake was inversely associated with the all-cause mortality (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.91, 95%CI = 0.85-0.99). We observed significant associations between calcium (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.73-0.93), copper (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.99-1.26), and selenium intake (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.29) and CVD mortality. Dietary phosphorus (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.69-0.96) and copper intake (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.71-0.99) were inversely associated with cancer mortality. In this study within a Middle Eastern population, a higher dietary intake of calcium exhibited an inverse association with all-cause mortality. Furthermore, nuanced associations were observed in the cause-specific mortality, suggesting potential avenues for dietary interventions and emphasizing the importance of considering dietary factors in public health strategies.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Neoplasias , Humanos , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos de Coortes , Cálcio , Cobre , Fatores de Risco , Estudos Prospectivos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Minerais , Dieta
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