Fast-track interventions for HIV and AIDS epidemic control among key populations: A rapid review.

BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for key populations remain critical for realisation of epidemic control for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection because of the causal relationship between HIV infection in the general population and among key population groups. AIM: To consolidate evidence on the fast-track interventions towards achieving HIV epidemic control among key populations. METHODS: A rapid scoping review was conducted using the methodological framework by Arksey and O' Malley. The Population, Intervention, Context and Outcome (PICO) framework was used to identify relevant studies using key words with Boolean operators in electronic data bases, namely CINHAL, Web of Science, Psych Info and Sabinet. Studies were extracted using a modified data extraction tool, and results were presented narratively. RESULTS: A total of 19 articles were included in this review. Most articles were primary studies (n = 17), while another involved the review of existing literature and policies (n = 2) and routinely collected data (n = 1). Most studies were conducted in the United States of America (n = 6), while another were conducted in China, Kenya, Botswana, South Africa and Mozambique. All studies revealed findings on tested interventions to achieve HIV epidemic control among key populations. CONCLUSION: Effective interventions for HIV epidemic control were stand-alone behavioural preventive interventions, stand-alone biomedical preventive strategies and combination prevention approaches. Furthermore, the findings suggest that effective activities to achieve HIV epidemic control among key populations should be centred around prevention.Contribution: The findings of this study have policy and practice implications for high HIV burden settings such as South Africa in terms of interventions to facilitate realisation of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 95-95-95 targets, thereby contributing to HIV epidemic control.

Threshold dynamics of a reaction-advection-diffusion schistosomiasis epidemic model with seasonality and spatial heterogeneity.

Most water-borne disease models ignore the advection of water flows in order to simplify the mathematical analysis and numerical computation. However, advection can play an important role in determining the disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the long-term dynamics of a periodic reaction-advection-diffusion schistosomiasis model and explore the joint impact of advection, seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on the transmission of the disease. We derive the basic reproduction number R 0 and show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive when R 0 < 1 whereas there is a positive endemic periodic solution and the system is uniformly persistent in a special case when R 0 > 1 . Moreover, we find that R 0 is a decreasing function of the advection coefficients which offers insights into why schistosomiasis is more serious in regions with slow water flows.

Incidence and risk factors of active tuberculosis among older individuals with latent tuberculosis infection: a cohort study in two high-epidemic sites in eastern China.

Background: The influencing factors of the process from latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) to the onset of active tuberculosis (TB) remain unknown among different population groups, especially among older individuals in high-incidence areas. This study aimed to investigate the development of active TB among older adults with LTBI and identify groups in greatest need of improved prevention and control strategies for TB. Methods: In 2021, we implemented an investigation among older individuals (≥ 65 years old) in two towns in Zhejiang Province with the highest incidence of TB. All participants underwent assessment using standardized questionnaires, physical examinations, interferon-gamma release assays, and chest radiography. All the participants with suspected TB based on the clinical symptoms or abnormal chest radiography results, as well as those with LTBI, were referred for diagnostic investigation in accordance with the national guidelines. Those with an initial diagnosis of TB were then excluded, whereas those with LTBI were included in a follow-up at baseline. Incident patients with active TB were identified from the Chinese Tuberculosis Management Information System, and a multivariate Cox regression model was used to estimate the incidence and risk of TB among those with LTBI. Results: In total, 667 participants with LTBI were followed up for 1,315.3 person-years, revealing a disease density of 1,292.5 individuals/100,000 person-years (17/1,315.3). For those with LTBI, chest radiograph abnormalities had adjusted hazard ratios for active TB of 4.9 (1.6-15.3). Conclusions: The presence of abnormal chest radiography findings increased the risk of active TB among older individuals with LTBI in high-epidemic sites in eastern China.

Assessment of health care workers preparedness to epidemics: A case of Ebola virus disease preparedness in private hospitals in Kampala, Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Unrecognized Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) can lead to multiple chains of transmissions if the first caretakers are not trained and prepared. This study aimed to assess healthcare workers (HCWs) preparedness in private hospitals located in Kampala, to detect, respond and prevent EVD. METHODOLOGY: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out among HCWs in direct clinical care provision in four private hospitals, and in one Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) using a self-administered questionnaire from March to June 2020. RESULTS: 222 HCWs agreed to participate aged from 19 to 64 years and with 6 months to 38 years of practice where most were nurses (44%). 3/5 hospitals did not have written protocols on EVD case management, and only one (ETU) had an exclusive emergency team. 59% were not sure whether contact tracing was taking place. Private hospitals were not included in EVD trainings organized by the Ministry of Health (MoH). In addition, HCWs in private hospitals were not empowered by the MoH to take part in EVD case management. Despite these shortcomings, only 66% of HCWs showed an interest to be immunized. Knowledge about potential Ebola vaccines was generally poor. CONCLUSIONS: In Kampala, Uganda, establishment of a more comprehensive preparedness and response strategy for EVD outbreaks is imperative for HCWs in private facilities, including a wide vaccination educational program on Ebola vaccination. The findings from this study if addressed will likely improve the preparedness and management of future Ebola outbreaks in Uganda.

Comprehensive analysis of early T cell responses to acute Zika Virus infection during the first epidemic in Bahia, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: In most cases, Zika virus (ZIKV) causes a self-limited acute illness in adults, characterized by mild clinical symptoms that resolve within a few days. Immune responses, both innate and adaptive, play a central role in controlling and eliminating virus-infected cells during the early stages of infection. AIM: To test the hypothesis that circulating T cells exhibit phenotypic and functional activation characteristics during the viremic phase of ZIKV infection. METHODS: A comprehensive analysis using mass cytometry was performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells obtained from patients with acute ZIKV infection (as confirmed by RT-PCR) and compared with that from healthy donors (HD). The frequency of IFN-γ-producing T cells in response to peptide pools covering immunogenic regions of structural and nonstructural ZIKV proteins was quantified using an ELISpot assay. RESULTS: Circulating CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes from ZIKV-infected patients expressed higher levels of IFN-γ and pSTAT-5, as well as cell surface markers associated with proliferation (Ki-67), activation ((HLA-DR, CD38) or exhaustion (PD1 and CTLA-4), compared to those from HD. Activation of CD4+ and CD8+ memory T cell subsets, including Transitional Memory T Cells (TTM), Effector Memory T cells (TEM), and Effector Memory T cells Re-expressing CD45RA (TEMRA), was prominent among CD4+ T cell subset of ZIKV-infected patients and was associated with increased levels of IFN-γ, pSTAT-5, Ki-67, CTLA-4, and PD1, as compared to HD. Additionally, approximately 30% of ZIKV-infected patients exhibited a T cell response primarily directed against the ZIKV NS5 protein. CONCLUSION: Circulating T lymphocytes spontaneously produce IFN-γ and express elevated levels of pSTAT-5 during the early phase of ZIKV infection whereas recognition of ZIKV antigen results in the generation of virus-specific IFN-γ-producing T cells.

Impact of simplified HCV diagnostic strategies on the HCV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in Taiwan: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Simplified hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostic strategies have the potential to improve HCV diagnoses and treatment. We aimed to investigate the impact of simplified HCV diagnostic strategies on HCV incidence and its effect on HCV diagnosis and treatment among men who have sex with men (MSM) regardless of HIV status and use of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in Taiwan. METHODS: A compartmental deterministic model was developed to describe the natural history of HCV disease progression, the HCV care cascade and the HIV status and PrEP using among MSM. The model was calibrated to available data for HCV and HIV epidemiology and population demographics in Taiwan. We simulated the epidemic from 2004 and projected the impact of simplified testing strategies on the HCV epidemic among MSM over 2022-2030. RESULTS: Under the current testing approach in Taiwan, total HCV incidence would increase to 12.6 per 1000 person-years among MSM by 2030. Single-visit point-of-care RNA testing had the largest impact on reducing the number of new HCV infections over 2022-2030, with a 31.1% reduction (interquartile range: 24.9%-32.8%). By 2030, single-visit point-of-care HCV testing improved HCV diagnosis to 90.9%, HCV treatment to 87.7% and HCV cure to 81.5% among MSM living with HCV. Compared to status quo, prioritized simplified HCV testing for PrEP users and MSM living with diagnosed HIV had considerable impact on the broader HCV epidemic among MSM. A sensitivity analysis suggests that reinfection risk would have a large impact on the effectiveness of each point-of-care testing scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified HCV diagnostic strategies could control the ongoing HCV epidemic and improve HCV testing and treatment among Taiwanese MSM. Single-visit point-of-care RNA testing would result in large reductions in HCV incidence and prevalence among MSM. Efficient risk-reduction strategies will need to be implemented alongside point-of-care testing to achieve HCV elimination among MSM in Taiwan.

A risk-induced dispersal strategy of the infected population for a disease-free state in the SIS epidemic model.

This article proposes a dispersal strategy for infected individuals in a spatial susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. The presence of spatial heterogeneity and the movement of individuals play crucial roles in determining the persistence and eradication of infectious diseases. To capture these dynamics, we introduce a moving strategy called risk-induced dispersal (RID) for infected individuals in a continuous-time patch model of the SIS epidemic. First, we establish a continuous-time n-patch model and verify that the RID strategy is an effective approach for attaining a disease-free state. This is substantiated through simulations conducted on 7-patch models and analytical results derived from 2-patch models. Second, we extend our analysis by adapting the patch model into a diffusive epidemic model. This extension allows us to explore further the impact of the RID movement strategy on disease transmission and control. We validate our results through simulations, which provide the effects of the RID dispersal strategy.

Markovian Approach for Exploring Competitive Diseases with Heterogeneity-Evidence from COVID-19 and Influenza in China.

Due to the complex interactions between multiple infectious diseases, the spreading of diseases in human bodies can vary when people are exposed to multiple sources of infection at the same time. Typically, there is heterogeneity in individuals' responses to diseases, and the transmission routes of different diseases also vary. Therefore, this paper proposes an SIS disease spreading model with individual heterogeneity and transmission route heterogeneity under the simultaneous action of two competitive infectious diseases. We derive the theoretical epidemic spreading threshold using quenched mean-field theory and perform numerical analysis under the Markovian method. Numerical results confirm the reliability of the theoretical threshold and show the inhibitory effect of the proportion of fully competitive individuals on epidemic spreading. The results also show that the diversity of disease transmission routes promotes disease spreading, and this effect gradually weakens when the epidemic spreading rate is high enough. Finally, we find a negative correlation between the theoretical spreading threshold and the average degree of the network. We demonstrate the practical application of the model by comparing simulation outputs to temporal trends of two competitive infectious diseases, COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in China.

Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends.

Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.

Characteristics of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic among People Aged ≥ 50 Years in China during 2018-2021.

Objective: This study aimed to determine the current epidemiological status of PLWHA aged ≥ 50 years in China from 2018 to 2021. It also aimed to recommend targeted interventions for the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS in elderly patients. Methods: Data on newly reported cases of PLWHA, aged ≥ 50 years in China from 2018 to 2021, were collected using the CRIMS. Trend tests and spatial analyses were also conducted. Results: Between 2018 and 2021, 237,724 HIV/AIDS cases were reported among patients aged ≥ 50 years in China. The main transmission route was heterosexual transmission (91.24%). Commercial heterosexual transmission (CHC) was the primary mode of transmission among males, while non-marital non-CHC ([NMNCHC]; 60.59%) was the prevalent route in women. The proportion of patients with CHC decreased over time ( Z = 67.716, P < 0.01), while that of patients with NMNCHC increased ( Z = 153.05, P < 0.01). The sex ratio varied among the different modes of infection, and it peaked at 17.65 for CHC. The spatial analysis indicated spatial clustering, and the high-high clustering areas were mainly distributed in the southwestern and central-southern provinces. Conclusion: In China, PLWHA, aged ≥ 50 years, were predominantly infected through heterosexual transmission. The primary modes of infection were CHC and NMNCHC. There were variations in the sex ratio among different age groups, infected through various sexual behaviors. HIV/AIDS cases exhibited spatial clustering. Based on these results, the expansion of HIV testing, treatment, and integrated behavioral interventions in high-risk populations is recommended to enhance disease detection in key regions.

Modelling the impact of precaution on disease dynamics and its evolution.

In this paper, we introduce the notion of practically susceptible population, which is a fraction of the biologically susceptible population. Assuming that the fraction depends on the severity of the epidemic and the public's level of precaution (as a response of the public to the epidemic), we propose a general framework model with the response level evolving with the epidemic. We firstly verify the well-posedness and confirm the disease's eventual vanishing for the framework model under the assumption that the basic reproduction number R 0 < 1 . For R 0 > 1 , we study how the behavioural response evolves with epidemics and how such an evolution impacts the disease dynamics. More specifically, when the precaution level is taken to be the instantaneous best response function in literature, we show that the endemic dynamic is convergence to the endemic equilibrium; while when the precaution level is the delayed best response, the endemic dynamic can be either convergence to the endemic equilibrium, or convergence to a positive periodic solution. Our derivation offers a justification/explanation for the best response used in some literature. By replacing "adopting the best response" with "adapting toward the best response", we also explore the adaptive long-term dynamics.

Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networks with node's activity and attractiveness.

The metapopulation network model is a mathematical framework used to study the spatial spread of epidemics with individuals' mobility. In this paper, we develop a time-varying network model in which the activity of a population is correlated with its attractiveness in mobility. By studying the spreading dynamics of the SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered)-type disease in different correlated networks based on the proposed model, we theoretically derive the mobility threshold and numerically observe that increasing the correction between activity and attractiveness results in a reduced mobility threshold but suppresses the fraction of infected subpopulations. It also introduces greater heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of infected individuals. Additionally, we investigate the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the spread of epidemics in different correlation networks. Our results show that the simultaneous implementation of self-isolation and self-protection is more effective in negatively correlated networks than that in positively correlated or non-correlated networks. Both self-isolation and self-protection strategies enhance the mobility threshold and, thus, slow down the spread of the epidemic. However, the effectiveness of each strategy in reducing the fraction of infected subpopulations varies in different correlated networks. Self-protection is more effective in positively correlated networks, whereas self-isolation is more effective in negatively correlated networks. Our study will provide insights into epidemic prevention and control in large-scale time-varying metapopulation networks.

Genetic legacy and adaptive signatures: investigating the history, diversity, and selection signatures in Rendena cattle resilient to eighteenth century rinderpest epidemics.

BACKGROUND: Rendena is a dual-purpose cattle breed, which is primarily found in the Italian Alps and the eastern areas of the Po valley, and recognized for its longevity, fertility, disease resistance and adaptability to steep Alpine pastures. It is categorized as 'vulnerable to extinction' with only 6057 registered animals in 2022, yet no comprehensive analyses of its molecular diversity have been performed to date. The aim of this study was to analyse the origin, genetic diversity, and genomic signatures of selection in Rendena cattle using data from samples collected in 2000 and 2018, and shed light on the breed's evolution and conservation needs. RESULTS: Genetic analysis revealed that the Rendena breed shares genetic components with various Alpine and Po valley breeds, with a marked genetic proximity to the Original Braunvieh breed, reflecting historical restocking efforts across the region. The breed shows signatures of selection related to both milk and meat production, environmental adaptation and immune response, the latter being possibly the result of multiple rinderpest epidemics that swept across the Alps in the eighteenth century. An analysis of the Rendena cattle population spanning 18 years showed an increase in the mean level of inbreeding over time, which is confirmed by the mean number of runs of homozygosity per individual, which was larger in the 2018 sample. CONCLUSIONS: The Rendena breed, while sharing a common origin with Brown Swiss, has developed distinct traits that enable it to thrive in the Alpine environment and make it highly valued by local farmers. Preserving these adaptive features is essential, not only for maintaining genetic diversity and enhancing the ability of this traditional animal husbandry to adapt to changing environments, but also for guaranteeing the resilience and sustainability of both this livestock system and the livelihoods within the Rendena valley.

[Is mortality an objective indicator for measuring the impact of an epidemic?: The example of Covid-19 in Switzerland]. / La mortalité est-elle un indicateur objectif pour mesurer l'impact d'une épidémie ?. L'exemple du Covid-19 en Suisse.

Measuring the health impact of an epidemic using appropriate indicators is necessarily complex. Mortality does not sum up all the issues, but at least it seems to be an objective indicator. There are, however, a number of different mortality indicators, which do not all convey the same message. During the Covid-19 epidemic in Switzerland, the mortality rate rose by 10.2% in 2020, while life expectancy fell by "only" 0.8%, or 8.3 months, a decline described as "modest" or "complete freefall" depending on when it was published. In reality, the population living in Switzerland in 2020 lost an average of "only" 2.4 days, as the epidemic did not last their entire lives. The use of such an indicator, in comparison with losses due to other factors, would enable us to better estimate the real impact of an epidemic.

Mesurer l'impact sanitaire d'une épidémie à l'aide d'indicateurs appropriés est forcément complexe. La mortalité ne résume pas tous les enjeux mais semble au moins être un indicateur objectif. Il existe cependant différents indicateurs de mortalité ne donnant pas tous le même message. Lors de l'épidémie de Covid-19 en Suisse, le taux de mortalité a augmenté de 10,2 % en 2020, alors que l'espérance de vie n'a diminué « que ¼ de 0,8 %, ou 8,3 mois, recul par ailleurs qualifié de « modeste ¼ ou de « chute libre ¼ selon quand il a été publié. En réalité, la population vivant en Suisse en 2020 n'a perdu en moyenne « que ¼ 2,4 jours car l'épidémie n'a pas duré toute sa vie. L'utilisation d'un tel indicateur, en comparaison avec les pertes dues à d'autres facteurs, permettrait une meilleure estimation de l'impact réel d'une épidémie.

Seasonal human coronavirus NL63 epidemics in children in Guilin, China, reveal the emergence of a new subgenotype of HCoV-NL63.

Introduction: Seasonal human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) is a frequently encountered virus linked to mild upper respiratory infections. However, its potential to cause more severe or widespread disease remains an area of concern. This study aimed to investigate a rare localized epidemic of HCoV-NL63-induced respiratory infections among pediatric patients in Guilin, China, and to understand the viral subtype distribution and genetic characteristics. Methods: In this study, 83 pediatric patients hospitalized with acute respiratory infections and positive for HCoV-NL63 were enrolled. Molecular analysis was conducted to identify the viral subgenotypes and to assess genetic variations in the receptor-binding domain of the spiking protein. Results: Among the 83 HCoV-NL63-positive children, three subgenotypes were identified: C4, C3, and B. Notably, 21 cases exhibited a previously unreported subtype, C4. Analysis of the C4 subtype revealed a unique amino acid mutation (I507L) in the receptor-binding domain of the spiking protein, which was also observed in the previously reported C3 genotype. This mutation may suggest potential increases in viral transmissibility and pathogenicity. Discussion: The findings of this study highlight the rapid mutation dynamics of HCoV-NL63 and its potential for increased virulence and epidemic transmission. The presence of a unique mutation in the C4 subtype, shared with the C3 genotype, raises concerns about the virus's evolving nature and its potential public health implications. This research contributes valuable insights into the understanding of HCoV-NL63's epidemiology and pathogenesis, which is crucial for effective disease prevention and control strategies. Future studies are needed to further investigate the biological significance of the observed mutation and its potential impact on the virus's transmissibility and pathogenicity.

Tackling the non-communicable disease epidemic: a framework for policy action in low- and middle-income countries.

Health policy frameworks for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases have largely been developed for application in high-income countries. Limited attention has been given to the policy exigencies in lower- and middle-income countries where the impacts of these conditions have been most severe, and further clarification of the policy requirements for effective prevention is needed. This paper presents a policy approach to prevention that, although relevant to high-income countries, recognizes the peculiar situation of low-and middle-income countries. Rather than a narrow emphasis on the implementation of piecemeal interventions, this paper encourages policymakers to utilize a framework of four embedded policy levels, namely health services, risk factors, environmental, and global policies. For a better understanding of the non-communicable disease challenge from a policy standpoint, it is proposed that a policy framework that recognizes responsible health services, addresses key risk factors, tackles underlying health determinants, and implements global non-communicable disease conventions, offers the best leverage for prevention.

Flip bifurcation analysis and mathematical modeling of cholera disease by taking control measures.

To study the dynamical system, it is necessary to formulate the mathematical model to understand the dynamics of various diseases which are spread in the world wide. The objective of the research study is to assess the early diagnosis and treatment of cholera virus by implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. A mathematical model is built with the hypothesis of strengthening the immune system, and a ABC operator is employed to turn the model into a fractional-order model. A newly developed system SEIBR, which is examined both qualitatively and quantitatively to determine its stable position as well as the verification of flip bifurcation has been made for developed system. The local stability of this model has been explored concerning limited observations, a fundamental aspect of epidemic models. We have derived the reproductive number using next generation method, denoted as " R 0 ", to analyze its impact rate across various sub-compartments, which serves as a critical determinant of its community-wide transmission rate. The sensitivity analysis has been verified according to its each parameters to identify that how much rate of change of parameters are sensitive. Atangana-Toufik scheme is employed to find the solution for the developed system using different fractional values which is advanced tool for reliable bounded solution. Also the error analysis has been made for developed scheme. Simulations have been made to see the real behavior and effects of cholera disease with early detection and treatment by implementing remedial methods without the use of drugs in the community. Also identify the real situation the spread of cholera disease after implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. Such type of investigation will be useful to investigate the spread of virus as well as helpful in developing control strategies from our justified outcomes.