Flip bifurcation analysis and mathematical modeling of cholera disease by taking control measures.

To study the dynamical system, it is necessary to formulate the mathematical model to understand the dynamics of various diseases which are spread in the world wide. The objective of the research study is to assess the early diagnosis and treatment of cholera virus by implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. A mathematical model is built with the hypothesis of strengthening the immune system, and a ABC operator is employed to turn the model into a fractional-order model. A newly developed system SEIBR, which is examined both qualitatively and quantitatively to determine its stable position as well as the verification of flip bifurcation has been made for developed system. The local stability of this model has been explored concerning limited observations, a fundamental aspect of epidemic models. We have derived the reproductive number using next generation method, denoted as " R 0 ", to analyze its impact rate across various sub-compartments, which serves as a critical determinant of its community-wide transmission rate. The sensitivity analysis has been verified according to its each parameters to identify that how much rate of change of parameters are sensitive. Atangana-Toufik scheme is employed to find the solution for the developed system using different fractional values which is advanced tool for reliable bounded solution. Also the error analysis has been made for developed scheme. Simulations have been made to see the real behavior and effects of cholera disease with early detection and treatment by implementing remedial methods without the use of drugs in the community. Also identify the real situation the spread of cholera disease after implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. Such type of investigation will be useful to investigate the spread of virus as well as helpful in developing control strategies from our justified outcomes.

Tailored multivalent peptide targeting the B-subunit pentamer of cholera toxin inhibits its intestinal toxicity by inducing aberrant transport of the toxin in cells.

Cholera toxin (Ctx) is a major virulence factor produced by Vibrio cholerae that can cause gastrointestinal diseases, including severe watery diarrhea and dehydration, in humans. Ctx binds to target cells through multivalent interactions between its B-subunit pentamer and the receptor ganglioside GM1 present on the cell surface. Here, we identified a series of tetravalent peptides that specifically bind to the receptor-binding region of the B-subunit pentamer using affinity-based screening of multivalent random-peptide libraries. These tetravalent peptides efficiently inhibited not only the cell-elongation phenotype but also the elevated cAMP levels, both of which are induced by Ctx treatment in CHO cells or a human colon carcinoma cell line (Caco-2 cells), respectively. Importantly, one of these peptides, NRR-tet, which was highly efficient in these two activities, markedly inhibited fluid accumulation in the mouse ileum caused by the direct injection of Ctx. In consistent, NRR-tet reduced the extensive Ctx-induced damage of the intestinal villi. After NRR-tet bound to Ctx, the complex was incorporated into the cultured epithelial cells and accumulated in the recycling endosome, affecting the retrograde transport of Ctx from the endosome to the Golgi, which is an essential process for Ctx to exert its toxicity in cells. Thus, NRR-tet may be a novel type of therapeutic agent against cholera, which induces the aberrant transport of Ctx in the intestinal epithelial cells, detoxifying the toxin.

Acute watery diarrhoea cases during cholera outbreak in Syria: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is a descriptive presentation of cases of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) that were presented to Aleppo University Hospital (AUH) during the recent cholera outbreak in Syria. DESIGN: Prospective, observational, cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1061 patients with AWD were admitted to AUH during the timeframe of 20 September 2022 to 20 October 2022. The data collection was done through a structured questionnaire. This includes comprehensive clinical observation, laboratory analyses, therapeutic interventions and holistic case evaluations. RESULTS: The analysis has revealed notable insights: a predominant proportion of patients (58.6%) were residents from urban areas and 40.3% were residents from rural areas. Intriguingly, a diverse range of potential infection sources emerged from patient data within our hospital, including uncontrolled well water, vegetables and faecal-oral transmission through contaminated street/fast food. At discharge, most patients were in good health (79.7%), followed by moderate health (17.6%) and poor health (2.3%), with a minimal percentage dying before discharge (0.4%). The most common complications reported at admission and during hospitalisation included electrolyte imbalance (28.2%), followed by severe dehydration (16.3%). In the follow-up period, the majority of patients exhibited good health (81.0%). Older patients (>60 years) had poorer outcomes, with 8.4% having poor health and 4.2% death rate. CONCLUSIONS: The study found results consistent with previous AWD outbreaks in developing countries like Yemen, Nigeria and Lebanon. Preventative measures like improving water sanitation and hygiene practices are essential to prevent future outbreaks and ease the strain on healthcare systems. Therefore, future studies must investigate the risk factors that increase the spread and the severity of the disease and investigate the best management method.

Molecular identification of Proteus mirabilis, Vibrio species leading to CRISPR-Cas9 modification of tcpA and UreC genes causing cholera and UTI.

Heavy metal accumulation increases rapidly in the environment due to anthropogenic activities and industrialization. The leather and surgical industry produces many contaminants containing heavy metals. Cadmium, a prominent contaminant, is linked to severe health risks, notably kidney and liver damage, especially among individuals exposed to contaminated wastewater. This study aims to leverage the natural cadmium resistance mechanisms in bacteria for bioaccumulation purposes. The industrial wastewater samples, characterized by an alarming cadmium concentration of 29.6 ppm, 52 ppm, and 76.4 ppm-far exceeding the recommended limit of 0.003 ppm-were subjected to screening for cadmium-resistant bacteria using cadmium-supplemented media with CdCl2. 16S rRNA characterization identified Vibrio cholerae and Proteus mirabilis as cadmium-resistant bacteria in the collected samples. Subsequently, the cadmium resistance-associated cadA gene was successfully amplified in Vibrio species and Proteus mirabilis, revealing a product size of 623 bp. Further analysis of the identified bacteria included the examination of virulent genes, specifically the tcpA gene (472 bp) associated with cholera and the UreC gene (317 bp) linked to urinary tract infections. To enhance the bioaccumulation of cadmium, the study proposes the potential suppression of virulent gene expression through in-silico gene-editing tools such as CRISPR-Cas9. A total of 27 gRNAs were generated for UreC, with five selected for expression. Similarly, 42 gRNA sequences were generated for tcpA, with eight chosen for expression analysis. The selected gRNAs were integrated into the lentiCRISPR v2 expression vector. This strategic approach aims to facilitate precise gene editing of disease-causing genes (tcpA and UreC) within the bacterial genome. In conclusion, this study underscores the potential utility of Vibrio species and Proteus mirabilis as effective candidates for the removal of cadmium from industrial wastewater, offering insights for future environmental remediation strategies.

In Commemoration of Dr. Mostafa Pourtaghva Shahrestani, a Pioneer in Infectious Disease Research.

It is important to honor the contributions of scientific leaders who have dedicated their lives to advancing knowledge and serving their country. One way is to document their experiences and personalities in a documentary format, which can serve as a historical record and an inspiration for future generations. Dr. Mostafa Pourtaghva Shahrestani, a renowned physician and specialist in infectious diseases and tropical medicine, has made significant contributions to public health in Iran. He has played a crucial role in controlling infectious diseases such as smallpox, tuberculosis, rabies, plague, and cholera. Throughout his career, he has held various executive positions, including the head of Pasteur Hospital and the director of the Pasteur Institute of Iran. Dr. Pourtaghva's life is a testament to his unwavering dedication to public health services, as evidenced by his continuous effort, love, and interest in honest work. His inspiring story can serve as a model for those who seek to follow in his footsteps.

Cholera and diarrheal diseases in Cuamba District, Niassa Province, Mozambique: Systematic healthcare facility-based surveillance strengthening, characteristics of suspected cholera and diarrheal patients, and incidence of diarrheal diseases.

BACKGROUND: Mozambique is one of the countries in Africa that is continuously at risk of cholera outbreaks due to poor sanitation, hygiene, and limited access to potable water in some districts. The Mozambique Cholera Prevention and Surveillance (MOCA) project was implemented in Cuamba District, Niassa Province to prevent and control cholera outbreaks through a preemptive cholera vaccination, strengthened surveillance system for cholera and diarrheal diseases, and better understanding of cholera-related healthcare seeking behavior of local populations, which may further guide the national cholera control and prevention strategies. This article presents the surveillance component of the MOCA project. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A prospective healthcare facility (HCF)-based surveillance of cholera and diarrheal disease was conducted in six HCFs in the District of Cuamba from March 2019 to December 2020. A systematic surveillance procedure has been put in place with capacity building in selected sentinel HCFs and a basic microbiology laboratory established on-site. Patients presenting with suspected cholera or other diarrheal symptoms were eligible for enrollment. Clinical data and rectal swab samples were collected for laboratory confirmation of Vibrio Cholerae and other pathogens. A total of 419 eligible patients from six HCFs were enrolled. The median age was 19.8 years with a similar age distribution between sentinel sites. The majority were patients who exhibited diarrhea symptoms not suspected of cholera (88.8%; n = 410). Among those, 59.2% (210/397) were female and 59.9% (235/392) were 15 years and above. There were 2 cholera cases, coming outside of the catchment area. The incidence of diarrheal diseases ranged from 40-103 per 100,000 population. No Vibrio cholerae was isolated among surveillance catchment population and Escherichia coli spp. (82/277; 29.6%) was the most common pathogen isolated. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Efforts were made to strengthen the systematic surveillance of suspected cholera with standardised patient screening, enrolment, and diagnostics. The first basic microbiology laboratory in Niassa Province established in Cuamba District under the MOCA project needs to be integrated into the national network of laboratories for sustainability. No reports of laboratory confirmed cholera cases from the surveillance catchment area may be highly related to the pre-emptive oral cholera vaccine (OCV) mass vaccination campaign conducted in 2018 and the use of drugs by local populations prior to visiting the sentinel HCFs. Continued systematic cholera surveillance is needed to closely monitor the cholera endemicity and epidemics, and further evaluate the long-term impact of this vaccination. High incidence of diarrheal illnesses needs to be addressed with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) conditions in Cuamba District. Efforts integrated with the prioritization of prevention measures are fundamental for the control of cholera in the country.

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti.

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

Early use of oral cholera vaccines as a prime control measure during outbreaks: Necessary but not sufficient.

INTRODUCTION: Despite being a preventable and treatable disease, cholera remains a public health problem in Sudan. The objective of the outbreak investigation was to identify associated risk factors that would help institute appropriate control measures. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A case control study design was chosen to identify the risk factors for cholera in Gadarif State. RESULTS: Multi-variate analysis of identified two risk factors and three preventive factors for cholera in Gadarif City. RISK FACTORS: Buying foods or drinks from street vendors (OR = 71.36), 95 % CI: 16.58-307.14), living in an urban setting (Gadarif City) (OR = 5.38), 95 % CI: 2.10-13.81); and the preventive factors were: Washing hands with water after defecation but without soap (OR = 0.16), 95 % CI: 0.04-0.63) or with soap (OR = 0.01), 95 % CI: 0.00-0.03), washing hands before eating (OR = 0.15), 95 % CI: 0.05-0.51) and taking Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) (OR = 0.19, 95 % CI: 0.08-0.44). The effectiveness of OCV (VE) was (Unadjusted VE: 80 %, 95 % CI: 69 %-87 %) or (Adjusted VE = 81.0 %, 95 % CI: 56.0 %-92.0 %). DISCUSSION: Cholera outbreaks, especially in the setting of a complex humanitarian crises, can spread rapidly, resulting in many deaths, and quickly become a public health crisis. Implementation of a community-wide vaccination campaign using OCV as early as possible during the outbreak while implementing other control measures to target hotspots and at-risk populations would expedite halting outbreaks of cholera and save lives.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera epidemics in Ethiopia: 2015-2021.

Since the onset of the seventh cholera pandemic, Ethiopia has been affected by recurrent epidemics. However, the epidemiology of cholera in this country remains poorly understood. This study aimed to describe cholera outbreak characteristics in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2021. During this period, Ethiopia experienced four epidemic waves. The first wave involved nationwide outbreaks during the second half of 2016 followed by outbreaks predominantly affecting Somali Region in 2017. The second wave primarily affected Tigray and Afar Regions. During the third wave, multiple smaller-scale outbreaks occurred during 2019. The fourth wave was limited to Bale Zone (Oromia Region) in 2021. Overall, a north to south shift was observed over the course of the study period. Major cholera transmission factors included limited access to safe water and sanitation facilities. Severe weather events (drought and flooding) appear to aggravate cholera diffusion. Cholera transmission between Ethiopia and nearby countries (Kenya and Somalia), likely plays a major role in regional cholera dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first understanding of recent spatiotemporal cholera dynamics in Ethiopia to inform cholera control and elimination strategies.

Comparison of analysis methods to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2021.

Cholera continues to represent a major public health concern in Ethiopia. The country has developed a Multi-sectoral National Cholera Elimination Plan in 2022, which targets prevention and control interventions in cholera hotspots. Multiple methods to classify cholera hotspots have been used in several countries. Since 2014, a classification method developed by United Nations Children's Fund has been applied to guide water, sanitation and hygiene interventions throughout Sub-Saharan Africa based on three outbreak parameters: frequency, duration and standardized attack rate. In 2019, the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) proposed a method based on two parameters: average annual cholera incidence and persistence. In 2023, an updated GTFCC method for multisectoral interventions considers three epidemiological indicators (cumulative incidence, cumulative mortality and persistence,) and a cholera-case confirmation indicator. The current study aimed to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia at the woreda level (equivalent to district level) applying the three methods and comparing the results to optimize the hotspot targeting strategy. From 2015 to 2021, cholera hotspots were located along major routes between Addis Ababa and woredas adjacent to the Kenya and Somalia borders, throughout Tigray Region, around Lake Tana, and in Afar Region. The multi-method comparison enables decision makers to prioritize interventions according to a sub-classification of the highest-priority areas.

Genomic characteristics of clinical non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae isolates in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study.

STUDY AIMS: Although non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae lack the ctxAB genes encoding cholera toxin, they can cause diarrhoeal disease and outbreaks in humans. In Switzerland, V. cholerae is a notifiable pathogen and all clinical isolates are analysed at the National Reference Laboratory for Enteropathogenic Bacteria and Listeria. Up to 20 infections are reported annually. In this study, we investigated the population structure and genetic characteristics of non-toxigenic V. cholerae isolates collected over five years. METHODS:  V. cholerae isolates were serotyped and non-toxigenic isolates identified using a ctxA-specific PCR. Following Illumina whole-genome sequencing, genome assemblies were screened for virulence and antibiotic resistance genes. Phylogenetic analyses were performed in the context of 965 publicly available V. cholerae genomes. RESULTS: Out of 33 V. cholerae infections reported between January 2017 and January 2022 in Switzerland, 31 were caused by ctxA-negative isolates. These non-toxigenic isolates originated from gastrointestinal (n = 29) or extraintestinal (n = 2) sites. They were phylogenetically diverse and belonged to 29 distinct sequence types. Two isolates were allocated to the lineage L3b, a ctxAB-negative but tcpA-positive clade previously associated with regional outbreaks. The remaining 29 isolates were placed in lineage L4, which is associated with environmental strains. Genes or mutations associated with reduced susceptibility to the first-line antibiotics fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines were identified in 11 and 3 isolates, respectively. One isolate was predicted to be multidrug resistant. CONCLUSIONS:  V. cholerae infections in Switzerland are rare and predominantly caused by lowly virulent ctxAB-negative and tcpA-negative strains. As V. cholerae is not endemic in Switzerland, cases are assumed to be acquired predominantly during travel. This assumption was supported by the phylogenetic diversity of the analysed isolates.

Phage predation, disease severity, and pathogen genetic diversity in cholera patients.

Despite an increasingly detailed picture of the molecular mechanisms of bacteriophage (phage)-bacterial interactions, we lack an understanding of how these interactions evolve and impact disease within patients. In this work, we report a year-long, nationwide study of diarrheal disease patients in Bangladesh. Among cholera patients, we quantified Vibrio cholerae (prey) and its virulent phages (predators) using metagenomics and quantitative polymerase chain reaction while accounting for antibiotic exposure using quantitative mass spectrometry. Virulent phage (ICP1) and antibiotics suppressed V. cholerae to varying degrees and were inversely associated with severe dehydration depending on resistance mechanisms. In the absence of antiphage defenses, predation was "effective," with a high predator:prey ratio that correlated with increased genetic diversity among the prey. In the presence of antiphage defenses, predation was "ineffective," with a lower predator:prey ratio that correlated with increased genetic diversity among the predators. Phage-bacteria coevolution within patients should therefore be considered in the deployment of phage-based therapies and diagnostics.

Safety and immunogenicity of the Euvichol-S oral cholera vaccine for prevention of Vibrio cholerae O1 infection in Nepal: an observer-blind, active-controlled, randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In October, 2017, WHO launched a strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030. A primary challenge in meeting this goal is the limited global supply capacity of oral cholera vaccine and the worsening of cholera outbreaks since 2021. To help address the current shortage of oral cholera vaccine, a WHO prequalified oral cholera vaccine, Euvichol-Plus was reformulated by reducing the number of components and inactivation methods. We aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of Euvichol-S (EuBiologics, Seoul, South Korea) compared with an active control vaccine, Shanchol (Sanofi Healthcare India, Telangana, India) in participants of various ages in Nepal. METHODS: We did an observer-blind, active-controlled, randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial at four hospitals in Nepal. Eligible participants were healthy individuals aged 1-40 years without a history of cholera vaccination. Individuals with a history of hypersensitivity reactions to other preventive vaccines, severe chronic disease, previous cholera vaccination, receipt of blood or blood-derived products in the past 3 months or other vaccine within 4 weeks before enrolment, and pregnant or lactating women were excluded. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) by block randomisation (block sizes of two, four, six, or eight) to one of four groups (groups A-D); groups C and D were stratified by age (1-5, 6-17, and 18-40 years). Participants in groups A-C were assigned to receive two 1·5 mL doses of Euvichol-S (three different lots) and participants in group D were assigned to receive the active control vaccine, Shanchol. All participants and site staff (with the exception of those who prepared and administered the study vaccines) were masked to group assignment. The primary immunogenicity endpoint was non-inferiority of immunogenicity of Euvichol-S (group C) versus Shanchol (group D) at 2 weeks after the second vaccine dose, measured by the seroconversion rate, defined as the proportion of participants who had achieved seroconversion (defined as ≥four-fold increase in V cholerae O1 Inaba and Ogawa titres compared with baseline). The primary immunogenicity endpoint was assessed in the per-protocol analysis set, which included all participants who received all their planned vaccine administrations, had no important protocol deviations, and who provided blood samples for all immunogenicity assessments. The primary safety endpoint was the number of solicited adverse events, unsolicited adverse events, and serious adverse events after each vaccine dose in all ages and each age stratum, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of the Euvichol-S or Shanchol. Non-inferiority of Euvichol-S compared with Shanchol was shown if the lower limit of the 95% CI for the difference between the seroconversion rates in Euvichol-S group C versus Shanchol group D was above the predefined non-inferiority margin of -10%. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04760236. FINDINGS: Between Oct 6, 2021, and Jan 19, 2022, 2529 healthy participants (1261 [49·9%] males; 1268 [50·1%] females), were randomly assigned to group A (n=330; Euvichol-S lot number ES-2002), group B (n=331; Euvichol-S ES-2003), group C (n=934; Euvichol-S ES-2004]), or group D (n=934; Shanchol). Non-inferiority of Euvichol-S versus Shanchol in seroconversion rate for both serotypes at 2 weeks after the second dose was confirmed in all ages (difference in seroconversion rate for V cholerae O1 Inaba -0·00 [95% CI -1·86 to 1·86]; for V cholerae O1 Ogawa -1·62 [-4·80 to 1·56]). Treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 244 (9·7%) of 2529 participants in the safety analysis set, with a total of 403 events; 247 events were reported among 151 (9·5%) of 1595 Euvichol-S recipients and 156 events among 93 (10·0%) of 934 Shanchol recipients. Pyrexia was the most common adverse event in both groups (57 events among 56 [3·5%] of 1595 Euvichol-S recipients and 37 events among 35 [3·7%] of 934 Shanchol recipients). No serious adverse events were deemed to be vaccine-related. INTERPRETATION: A two-dose regimen of Euvichol-S vaccine was non-inferior to the active control vaccine, Shanchol, in terms of seroconversion rates 2 weeks after the second dose. The simplified formulation and production requirements of the Euvichol-S vaccine have the potential to increase the supply of oral cholera vaccine and reduce the gap between the current oral cholera vaccine supply and demand. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Nepali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Analyses of drinking water quality during a protracted cholera epidemic in Malawi - a cross-sectional study of key physicochemical and microbiological parameters.

Anecdotal evidence and available literature indicated that contaminated water played a major role in spreading the prolonged cholera epidemic in Malawi from 2022 to 2023. This study assessed drinking water quality in 17 cholera-affected Malawi districts from February to April 2023. Six hundred and thirty-three records were analysed. The median counts/100 ml for thermotolerant coliform was 98 (interquartile range (IQR): 4-100) and that for Escherichia coli was 0 (IQR: 0-9). The drinking water in all (except one) districts was contaminated by thermotolerant coliform, while six districts had their drinking water sources contaminated by E. coli. The percentage of contaminated drinking water sources was significantly higher in shallow unprotected wells (80.0% for E. coli and 95.0% for thermotolerant coliform) and in households (55.8% for E. coli and 86.0% for thermotolerant coliform). Logistic regression showed that household water has three times more risk of being contaminated by E. coli and two and a half times more risk of being contaminated by thermotolerant coliform compared to other water sources. This study demonstrated widespread contamination of drinking water sources during a cholera epidemic in Malawi, which may be the plausible reason for the protracted nature of the epidemic.