SARS-CoV-2 clade dynamics and their associations with hospitalisations during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic was characterised by rapid waves of disease, carried by the emergence of new and more infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus variants. How the pandemic unfolded in various locations during its first two years has yet to be sufficiently covered. To this end, here we are looking at the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, their diversity, and hospitalisation rates in Estonia in the period from March 2000 to March 2022. METHODS: We sequenced a total of 27,550 SARS-CoV-2 samples in Estonia between March 2020 and March 2022. High-quality sequences were genotyped and assigned to Nextstrain clades and Pango lineages. We used regression analysis to determine the dynamics of lineage diversity and the probability of clade-specific hospitalisation stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: We successfully sequenced a total of 25,375 SARS-CoV-2 genomes (or 92%), identifying 19 Nextstrain clades and 199 Pango lineages. In 2020 the most prevalent clades were 20B and 20A. The various subsequent waves of infection were driven by 20I (Alpha), 21J (Delta) and Omicron clades 21K and 21L. Lineage diversity via the Shannon index was at its highest during the Delta wave. About 3% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples came from hospitalised individuals. Hospitalisation increased markedly with age in the over-forties, and was negligible in the under-forties. Vaccination decreased the odds of hospitalisation in over-forties. The effect of vaccination on hospitalisation rates was strongly dependent upon age but was clade-independent. People who were infected with Omicron clades had a lower hospitalisation likelihood in age groups of forty and over than was the case with pre-Omicron clades regardless of vaccination status. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 disease waves in Estonia were driven by the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron clades. Omicron clades were associated with a substantially lower hospitalisation probability than pre-Omicron clades. The protective effect of vaccination in reducing hospitalisation likelihood was independent of the involved clade.

Diversity of Sarcocystis parasites in southeastern Baltic Sea catchment ecosystems.

Currently, research on apicomplexan Sarcocystis parasites is mainly carried out by analyzing animal carcasses. However, environmental studies would not only allow faster detection of possible sources of infection but also avoid the use of animals for investigations. Therefore, in the current study, we aimed to identify tested Sarcocystis species in sediment collected from water bodies located in the southeastern Baltic countries. A total of 99 sediment samples were collected during the summer from different types of water bodies in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Species-specific nested PCR targeting cox1 gene was used for the detection of selected Sarcocystis species (S. cruzi, S. bovifelis, S. hirsuta, S. arieticanis, S. tenella, S. capracanis, S. miescheriana, and S. bertrami) infecting livestock. The results showed a statistically lower (p < 0.05) occurrence of Sarcocystis parasites in Estonia (50%) compared to three countries, where the detection rate of Sarcocystis spp. DNA was remarkably higher, ranging from 88 to 100%. Among Sarcocystis species tested, S. cruzi (83.8%) and S. arieticanis (55.6%) using cattle and sheep as their intermediate hosts were most commonly identified. The detection rates of some of the analyzed Sarcocystis species were significantly different in southeastern Baltic countries. It is discussed that the detection rates of certain Sarcocystis species depend not only on the number of animals per 1 km2 but also on various ecological factors and farming practices that differ in the amount of contact domestic animals have with predators and the potential for animals to become infected through natural water or food sources.

Using electronic health records to evaluate the adherence to cervical cancer prevention guidelines: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: The fight against cervical cancer requires effective screening together with optimal and on-time treatment along the care continuum. We examined the impact of cervical cancer testing and treatment guidelines on testing practices, and follow-up adherence to guidelines. METHODS: Data from Estonian electronic health records and healthcare provision claims for 50,702 women was used. The annual rates of PAP tests, HPV tests and colposcopies during two guideline periods (2nd version 2012-2014 vs 3rd version 2016-2019) were compared. To assess the adherence to guidelines, the subjects were classified as adherent, over- or undertested based on the timing of the appropriate follow-up test. RESULTS: The number of PAP tests decreased and HPV tests increased during the 3rd guideline period (p < 0.01). During the 3rd guideline period, among 21-29-year-old women, the adherence to guidelines ranged from 38.7% (44.4…50.1) for ASC-US to 73.4% (62.6…84.3) for HSIL and among 30-59-year-old from 49.0% (45.9…52.2) for ASC-US to 65.7% (58.8…72.7) for ASCH. The highest rate of undertested women was for ASC-US (21-29y: 25.7%; 30-59y: 21.9%). The rates of over-tested women remained below 12% for all cervical pathologies observed. There were 55.2% (95% CI 49.7…60.8) of 21-24-year-olds and 57.1% (95% CI 53.6…60.6) of 25-29-year-old women who received HPV test not adherent to guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlighted some shortcomings in guideline adherence, especially among women under 30. The insights gained from this study help to improve the quality of care and, thus, reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality.

Evidence for cryptic molting behavior in the trilobite Toxochasmops vormsiensis from the Upper Ordovician Katian Kõrgessaare Formation, Estonia.

Documentation of cryptic trilobite behavior has presented important insights into the paleoecology of this fully extinct arthropod group. One such example is the preservation of trilobites inside the remains of larger animals. To date, evidence for trilobites within cephalopods, gastropods, hyoliths, and other trilobites has been presented. Importantly, most of these interactions show trilobite molts, suggesting that trilobites used larger animals for protection during molting. To expand the record of molted trilobites within cephalopods, we present a unique case of a Toxochasmops vormsiensis trilobite within the body chamber of a Gorbyoceras textumaraneum nautiloid from the Upper Ordovician Kõrgessaare Formation of Estonia. By examining this material, we present new insights into the ecology of pterygometopid trilobites, highlighting how these forms used large cephalopods as areas to successfully molt.

Genetic determinants of plasma protein levels in the Estonian population.

The proteome holds great potential as an intermediate layer between the genome and phenome. Previous protein quantitative trait locus studies have focused mainly on describing the effects of common genetic variations on the proteome. Here, we assessed the impact of the common and rare genetic variations as well as the copy number variants (CNVs) on 326 plasma proteins measured in up to 500 individuals. We identified 184 cis and 94 trans signals for 157 protein traits, which were further fine-mapped to credible sets for 101 cis and 87 trans signals for 151 proteins. Rare genetic variation contributed to the levels of 7 proteins, with 5 cis and 14 trans associations. CNVs were associated with the levels of 11 proteins (7 cis and 5 trans), examples including a 3q12.1 deletion acting as a hub for multiple trans associations; and a CNV overlapping NAIP, a sensor component of the NAIP-NLRC4 inflammasome which is affecting pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin 18 levels. In summary, this work presents a comprehensive resource of genetic variation affecting the plasma protein levels and provides the interpretation of identified effects.

Reliability and validity of the Estonian version of the Clinical Institute of Withdrawal Assessment for Alcohol scale.

AIMS: Our aim was to adapt the Clinical Institute of Withdrawal Assessment for Alcohol scale (CIWA-Ar) into Estonian and test its reliability and validity. METHODS: A total of 72 patients with alcohol withdrawal syndrome participated in the study. In order to assess the interrater reliability, at first assessment the CIWA-Ar was simultaneously completed by two nurses. In order to assess the sensitivity of the CIWA-Ar to the changes in the severity of the withdrawal syndrome, as well as its correlations to several indices characterizing the subjects' current condition, the CIWA-Ar, the Clinical Global Impression Severity subscale (CGI-S), the visual analogue scales for the assessment of the general feeling of malaise, anxiety and depression were filled in and the vital signs were measured at inclusion, in 4 h and after the withdrawal syndrome had been resolved. RESULTS: The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the Estonian version of the CIWA-Ar total score, used as an indicator of interrater reliability, was excellent. The CIWA-Ar had significant correlations with the psychiatrists' CGI-S ratings of the severity of the patient's condition at all assessment points. Significant correlations were also found between CIWA-Ar and patients' self-ratings, the highest correlations found with self-rated anxiety and general feeling of malaise. CIWA-Ar total score did not correlate with simultaneously measured heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure at the first assessment. At the second assessment, heart rate had a significant correlation with the CIWA-Ar total score. CONCLUSION: Our study provides confirmation that the CIWA-Ar tool is well applicable in the Estonian language and culture setting.

Heartworm disease in domestic dogs in Estonia: indication of local circulation of the zoonotic parasite Dirofilaria immitis farther north than previously reported.

BACKGROUND: The mosquito-borne zoonotic parasite Dirofilaria immitis continues to spread northwards in Europe. This parasite can cause potentially life-threatening heartworm disease in dogs and pulmonary dirofilariasis in humans and is, therefore, a major health concern in both the veterinary medicine and human medical fields. This is the first report of D. immitis infections and heartworm disease in the Baltic country Estonia. METHODS: Data on canine D. immitis infections and heartworm disease were collected from the electronic patient records database of the Small Animal Clinic of Estonian University of Life Sciences, the only university clinic in Estonia. The patient records of dogs with confirmed diagnosis of D. immitis infection or heartworm disease were reviewed and summarised. RESULTS: Six dogs had been diagnosed with confirmed D. immitis infection or heartworm disease at the university clinic in 2021-2022. The confirmed diagnoses had been reached following international guidelines, based on a combination of different tests. Molecular confirmation of the parasite species had not been performed. Two of the dogs had been imported while four had no travel history outside of the country. CONCLUSIONS: Four of the dogs with a confirmed D. immitis infection or heartworm disease had no history of being imported or travelling outside of the country, indicating autochthonous infections and, consequently, local circulation of the parasite in Estonia. These findings represent the new northernmost autochthonous cases of D. immitis infection and canine heartworm disease reported in the European Union.

Respiratory symptoms, exacerbations and sleep disturbances are more common among participants with asthma and chronic airflow limitation: an epidemiological study in Estonia, Iceland and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Chronic airflow limitation (CAL) is a hallmark of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease but is also present in some patients with asthma. We investigated respiratory symptoms, sleep and health status of participants with and without CAL with particular emphasis on concurrent asthma using data from adult populations in Iceland, Estonia and Sweden investigated within the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study. METHODS: All participants underwent spirometry with measurements of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) before and after bronchodilation. CAL was defined as postbronchodilator FEV1/FVC below the lower limit of normal. IgE-sensitisation and serum concentrations of eosinophil-derived neurotoxin (S-EDN) were assessed in a subsample. The participants were divided into four groups: no self-reported doctor's diagnosed asthma or CAL, asthma without CAL, CAL without asthma and asthma and CAL: χ2 test and analysis of variance were used in bivariable analyses and logistic and linear regression when analysing the independent association between respiratory symptoms, exacerbations, sleep-related symptoms and health status towards CAL, adjusting for centre, age, sex, body mass index, smoking history and educational level. RESULTS: Among the 1918 participants, 190 (9.9%) had asthma without CAL, 127 (6.6%) had CAL without asthma and 50 (2.6%) had CAL with asthma. Having asthma with CAL was associated with symptoms such as wheeze (adjusted OR (aOR) 6.53 (95% CI 3.53 to 12.1), exacerbations (aOR 12.8 (95% CI 6.97 to 23.6), difficulties initiating sleep (aOR 2.82 (95% CI 1.45 to 5.48), nocturnal gastro-oesophageal reflux (aOR 3.98 (95% CI 1.79 to 8.82)) as well as lower physical health status. In these analyses, those with no asthma and no CAL were the reference group. The prevalence of IgE-sensitisation was highest in both asthma groups, which also had higher levels of S-EDN. CONCLUSION: Individuals with self-reported asthma with CAL suffer from a higher burden of respiratory and sleep-related symptoms, higher exacerbation rates and lower health status when compared with participants with asthma alone or CAL alone.

Genome-wide association study in Estonia reveals importance of vaginal epithelium associated genes in case of recurrent vaginitis.

Recurrent vaginitis is a leading reason for visiting a gynaecologist, with bacterial vaginosis (BV) and vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) being the most common diagnoses. Reasons and mechanisms behind their recurrent nature are poorly understood. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to find possible genetic risk factors for recurrent vaginitis using data from a large population-based biobank, the Estonian Biobank. The study included 6870 cases (at least two episodes of vaginitis) and 5945 controls (no vaginitis episodes). GWAS approach included single marker and gene-based analyses, followed by functional annotation of associated variants and candidate gene mapping.In single marker analysis, one statistically significant (P = 7.8 × 10-9) variant rs1036732378 was identified on chromosome 10. The gene-based association analysis identified one gene, KRT6A, that exceeded the recommended significance threshold (P = 2.6 × 10-6). This is a member of the keratin protein family and is expressed during differentiation in epithelial tissues.Functional mapping and annotation of genetic associations by using adjusted significance level identified 22 potential risk loci that may be associated with recurrent vaginitis phenotype. Comparison of our results with previous studies provided nominal support for LBP (associated with immune response to vaginal bacteria) and PRKCH genes (possible role in keratinocyte differentiation and susceptibility to candidiasis).In conclusion, this study is the first highlighting a potential role of the vaginal epithelium in recurrent vaginitis.

Mortality and burden related with aortic aneurysms and dissections. The importance of information and education.

BACKGROUND: In this study we correlated changes of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases with trends of age standardized mortality rates and burden for aortic aneurysms and dissections. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Diseases and EUROSTAT. FINDINGS: There was a significant increase of expenditure for health from 1980 and 2019. In the period 1980-2000, despite higher health spending, age standardized mortality rates increased in almost all European countries. During the period 2000-2019, in Western European Countries and in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia there was a correlation between higher health expenditure and decrease of ASMR. The most important changes between the period 1980-2000 and the period 2000-2019 was the proportion of health expenditure devoted to preventive care and to the increased use of aspirin and statins. INTERPRETATION: Information about risk factors for cardiovascular diseases have leads to decreased aortic aneurysm related mortality and burden.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines to prevent long COVID symptoms: staggered cohort study of data from the UK, Spain, and Estonia.

BACKGROUND: Although vaccines have proved effective to prevent severe COVID-19, their effect on preventing long-term symptoms is not yet fully understood. We aimed to evaluate the overall effect of vaccination to prevent long COVID symptoms and assess comparative effectiveness of the most used vaccines (ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2). METHODS: We conducted a staggered cohort study using primary care records from the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD] GOLD and AURUM), Catalonia, Spain (Information System for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP]), and national health insurance claims from Estonia (CORIVA database). All adults who were registered for at least 180 days as of Jan 4, 2021 (the UK), Feb 20, 2021 (Spain), and Jan 28, 2021 (Estonia) comprised the source population. Vaccination status was used as a time-varying exposure, staggered by vaccine rollout period. Vaccinated people were further classified by vaccine brand according to their first dose received. The primary outcome definition of long COVID was defined as having at least one of 25 WHO-listed symptoms between 90 and 365 days after the date of a PCR-positive test or clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, with no history of that symptom 180 days before SARS-Cov-2 infection. Propensity score overlap weighting was applied separately for each cohort to minimise confounding. Sub-distribution hazard ratios (sHRs) were calculated to estimate vaccine effectiveness against long COVID, and empirically calibrated using negative control outcomes. Random effects meta-analyses across staggered cohorts were conducted to pool overall effect estimates. FINDINGS: A total of 1 618 395 (CPRD GOLD), 5 729 800 (CPRD AURUM), 2 744 821 (SIDIAP), and 77 603 (CORIVA) vaccinated people and 1 640 371 (CPRD GOLD), 5 860 564 (CPRD AURUM), 2 588 518 (SIDIAP), and 302 267 (CORIVA) unvaccinated people were included. Compared with unvaccinated people, overall HRs for long COVID symptoms in people vaccinated with a first dose of any COVID-19 vaccine were 0·54 (95% CI 0·44-0·67) in CPRD GOLD, 0·48 (0·34-0·68) in CPRD AURUM, 0·71 (0·55-0·91) in SIDIAP, and 0·59 (0·40-0·87) in CORIVA. A slightly stronger preventative effect was seen for the first dose of BNT162b2 than for ChAdOx1 (sHR 0·85 [0·60-1·20] in CPRD GOLD and 0·84 [0·74-0·94] in CPRD AURUM). INTERPRETATION: Vaccination against COVID-19 consistently reduced the risk of long COVID symptoms, which highlights the importance of vaccination to prevent persistent COVID-19 symptoms, particularly in adults. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Outcomes of resuscitative and emergent thoracotomies following injury at the largest trauma center in Estonia.

BACKGROUND: An emergency department thoracotomy (EDT) is performed in critically injured patients after a recent or in an imminent cardiac arrest following trauma. Emergent thoracotomy (ET) or operation room thoracotomy is reserved for more stable patients. However, the number of these interventions performed in an European settings is limited. Thus, we initiated the current study to investigate outcomes and risk factors for mortality of patients required EDT or ET at the largest trauma center in Estonia. METHODS: All patients admitted after trauma to the North Estonia Medical Centre between 1/1/2017 and 31/12/2021 subjected to EDT or ET were included. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 39 patients were included. EDT and ET were performed in 16 and 23 patients, respectively. Median age was 45 (33-53) years and 89.7% were males. The crude 30-day mortality was 56.4% being 87.5% and 34.8% in the EDT and ET group, respectively. None of the patients with pre-hospital CPR requirement, severe head injury (AIS head ≥ 3) or severe abdominal injury (AIS abdomen ≥ 3) survived. All the patients in the survival group had signs of life in the emergency department. The rate of stab wounds was significantly higher in the survival group (p = 0.007). Patients with CGS < 9 had significantly lower possibility for survival (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: EDT and ET outcomes in Estonian trauma system are comparable to similar advanced trauma systems in Europe. Patients with GCS > 8, signs of life in the ED and with isolated penetrating chest injury had the most favorable outcomes.

Estonian alcohol control legislation in 1990-2020: A narrative review.

ISSUES: The aim of this narrative review is to provide a detailed, chronological overview on the development of Estonian alcohol control legislation during 1990-2020. APPROACH: Qualitative document review focused on six legislative acts central to Estonian alcohol control policy. Distinguishing four policy areas (availability, advertising, taxation and drink-driving), the review identifies and describes significant changes in these legislative acts and their amendments from 1990 to 2020. KEY FINDINGS: The review identified 51 significant changes in acts regulating either availability, advertising, taxation or drink-driving in Estonia. Majority of these changes (n = 36) relate to Alcohol Excise Duty Act and the Alcohol Act which regulate the taxation, production and sales of alcohol. Although all six key legislative acts were introduced during the 1990s, only a few significant changes to alcohol control policy were made in this decade. In contrast, the 2000s experienced an intense period of new legislation and amendments followed by 2010s when the main emphasis was on alcohol taxation and advertising. IMPLICATIONS: During three decades, Estonian alcohol control legislation has gradually evolved to include most evidence-based measures to reduce the harmful use of alcohol, the effects of the policies on consumption and alcohol-related harms remain relatively modest. CONCLUSION: The liberal and unregulated alcohol control measures in the 1990s have transitioned in the following two decades towards a coherent alcohol policy. While many of the World Health Organization's 'best buys' have been successfully implemented, there are still some recommendations which have not been targeted.

SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy and perinatal outcomes in Estonia in 2020 and 2021: A register-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Data from different countries show partly controversial impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy outcomes. A nationwide register-based study was conducted in Estonia to assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection at any time during pregnancy on stillbirth, perinatal mortality, Apgar score at 5 minutes, cesarean section rates, rates of preterm birth and preeclampsia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data on all newborns and their mothers were obtained from the Estonian Medical Birth Registry, and data on SARS-CoV-2 testing dates, test results and vaccination dates against SARS-CoV-2 from the Estonian Health Information System. Altogether, 26 211 births in 2020 and 2021 in Estonia were included. All analyses were performed per newborn. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were analyzed for all outcomes, adjusted for mother's place of residence, body mass index, age of mother at delivery and hypertension and for all the aforementioned variables together with mother's vaccination status using data from 2021 when vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 became available. For studying the effect of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test during pregnancy on preeclampsia, hypertension was omitted from the models to avoid overadjustment. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.81; 95% CI 1.37-5.74) and perinatal mortality (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.20-4.56) but not with a lower Apgar score at 5 minutes, higher risk of cesarean section, preeclampsia or preterm birth. Vaccination slightly decreased the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy on perinatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A positive SARS-CoV-2 test during pregnancy was associated with higher rates of stillbirth and perinatal mortality in Estonia but was not associated with change in preeclampsia, cesarean section or preterm birth rates.

Benchmarking usability of patient portals in Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

INTRODUCTION: Poor usability is a barrier to widespread adoption of electronic health records (EHR). Providing good usability is especially challenging in the health care context, as there is a wide variety of patient users. Usability benchmarking is an approach for improving usability by evaluating and comparing the strength and weaknesses of systems. The main purpose of this study is to benchmark usability of patient portals across countries. METHODS: A mixed-methods survey approach was applied to benchmark the national patient portals offering patient access to EHR in Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. These Nordic countries have similar public healthcare systems, and they are pioneers in offering patients access to EHR for several years. In a survey of 29,334 patients, both patients' quantitative ratings of usability and their qualitative descriptions of very positive and very negative peak experiences of portal use were collected. RESULTS: The usability scores ranged from good to fair level of usability. The narratives of very positive and very negative experiences included the benefits of the patient portals and experienced usability issues. The regression analysis of results showed that very positive and negative experiences of patient portal use explain 19-35% of the variation of usability scores in the four countries. The percentage of patients who reported very positive or very negative experiences in each country was unrelated to the usability scores across countries. CONCLUSIONS: The survey approach could be used to evaluate usability with a wide variety of users and it supported learning from comparison across the countries. The combination of quantitative and qualitative data provided an approximation of the level of the perceived usability, and identified usability issues to be improved and useful features that patients appreciate. Further work is needed to improve the comparability of the varied samples across countries.

NDVI as a potential tool for forecasting changes in geographical range of sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.).

Determining the natural range of Acer pseudoplatanus and the future directions of its spread is not clear. Modern technological achievements, including tools related to remote sensing, provide new opportunities to assess the degree of spread and adaptation of species to a changing climate. The aim of the work was to demonstrate the possibility of using NDVI to assess the habitat conditions of sycamore in Poland and the possibility of its natural expansion. The data analysis was divided into 2 parts. The first covered the characteristics of all sycamore stands occurring in Poland. In the second part, the analysis of sycamore stands using NDVI was made. The results of the study show that the highest average NDVI values are found in sycamore stands in the northern part of Poland, which has so far been considered less favorable for sycamore. This may suggest the potential for an increase in the share of sycamore towards the north. The results also confirm the forecasts given in the literature regarding the spread of sycamore towards Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The results also point to Denmark and the western part of the British Isles as potentially favorable habitats for sycamore.

Modeling forest landscape futures: Full scale simulation of realistic socioeconomic scenarios in Estonia.

For political and administrative governance of land-use decisions, high-resolution and reliable spatial models are required over large areas and for various time horizons. We present a process-centered simulation model 'NextStand' (a forest landscape model, FLM) and its R-script, which predicts regional forest characteristics at a forest stand resolution. The model uses whole area stand data and is optimized for realistic iterative timber harvesting decisions, based on stand compositions (developing over time) and locations. We used the model for simulating spatial predictions of the Estonian forests in North Europe (2.3 Mha, about 2 M stands); the decisions were parameterized by land ownership, protection regimes, and rules of clear-cut harvesting. We illustrate the model application as a potential broad-scale Decision Support Tool by predicting how the forest age composition, placement of clear-cut areas, and connectivity of old stands will develop until the year 2050 under future scenarios. The country-scale outputs had a generally low within-scenario variance, which enabled to estimate some main land-use effects and uncertainties at small computing efforts. In forestry terms, we show that a continuation of recent intensive forest management trends will produce a decline of the national timber supplies in Estonia, which greatly varies among ownership types. In a conservation perspective, the current level of 13% forest area strictly protected can maintain an overall area of old forests by 2050, but their isolation is a problem for biodiversity conservation. The behavior of low-intensity forest management units (owners) and strict governance of clear-cut harvesting rules emerged as key questions for regional forest sustainability. Our study confirms that high-resolution modeling of future spatial composition of forest land is feasible when one can (i) delineate predictable spatial units of transformation (including management) and (ii) capture their variability of temporal change with simple ecological and socioeconomic (including human decision-making) variables.