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3.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 13391, 2024 06 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38862580

RESUMO

In actual pandemic situations like COVID-19, it is important to understand the influence of single mitigation measures as well as combinations to create most dynamic impact for lockdown scenarios. Therefore we created an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in an abstract city model with several types of places and agents. In comparison to infection numbers in Germany our ABM could be shown to behave similarly during the first wave. In our model, we implemented the possibility to test the effectiveness of mitigation measures and lockdown scenarios on the course of the pandemic. In this context, we focused on parameters of local events as possible mitigation measures and ran simulations, including varying size, duration, frequency and the proportion of events. The majority of changes to single event parameters, with the exception of frequency, showed only a small influence on the overall course of the pandemic. By applying different lockdown scenarios in our simulations, we could observe drastic changes in the number of infections per day. Depending on the lockdown strategy, we even observed a delayed peak in infection numbers of the second wave. As an advantage of the developed ABM, it is possible to analyze the individual risk of single agents during the pandemic. In contrast to standard or adjusted ODEs, we observed a 21% (with masks) / 48% (without masks) increased risk for single reappearing participants on local events, with a linearly increasing risk based on the length of the events.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Simulação por Computador
4.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 14244, 2024 06 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38902279

RESUMO

In the face of infectious disease outbreaks, the collective behavior of a society can has a profound impact on the course of the epidemic. This study investigates the instantaneous social dilemma presented by individuals' attitudes toward vaccine behavior and its influence on social distancing as a critical component in disease control strategies. The research employs a multifaceted approach, combining modeling techniques and simulation to comprehensively assess the dynamics between social distancing attitudes and vaccine uptake during disease outbreaks. With respect to modeling, we introduce a new vaccination game (VG) where, unlike conventional VG models, a 2-player and 2-strategy payoff structure is aptly embedded in the individual behavior dynamics. Individuals' willingness to adhere to social distancing measures, such as mask-wearing and physical distancing, is strongly associated with their inclination to receive vaccines. The study reveals that a positive attitude towards social distancing tends to align with a higher likelihood of vaccine acceptance, ultimately contributing to more effective disease control. As the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated, swift and coordinated public health measures are essential to curbing the spread of infectious diseases. This study underscores the urgency of addressing the instantaneous social dilemma posed by individuals' attitudes. By understanding the intricate relationship between these factors, policymakers, and healthcare professionals can develop tailored strategies to promote both social distancing compliance and vaccine acceptance, thereby enhancing our ability to control and mitigate the impact of disease outbreaks in the future.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Distanciamento Físico , Vacinação , Humanos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/psicologia , Vacinação/psicologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Atitude , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos
5.
Bull Math Biol ; 86(8): 92, 2024 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38888744

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only presented a major global public health and socio-economic crisis, but has also significantly impacted human behavior towards adherence (or lack thereof) to public health intervention and mitigation measures implemented in communities worldwide. This study is based on the use of mathematical modeling approaches to assess the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is impacted by population-level changes of human behavior due to factors such as (a) the severity of transmission (such as disease-induced mortality and level of symptomatic transmission), (b) fatigue due to the implementation of mitigation interventions measures (e.g., lockdowns) over a long (extended) period of time, (c) social peer-pressure, among others. A novel behavior-epidemiology model, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, is developed and fitted using observed cumulative SARS-CoV-2 mortality data during the first wave in the United States. The model fits the observed data, as well as makes a more accurate prediction of the observed daily SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the first wave (March 2020-June 2020), in comparison to the equivalent model which does not explicitly account for changes in human behavior. This study suggests that, as more newly-infected individuals become asymptomatically-infectious, the overall level of positive behavior change can be expected to significantly decrease (while new cases may rise, particularly if asymptomatic individuals have higher contact rate, in comparison to symptomatic individuals).


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Conceitos Matemáticos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Epidemiológicos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/estatística & dados numéricos
6.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1385291, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38887248

RESUMO

Objective: The purpose of this study is to summarize the health system response to COVID-19 in four East Asian countries, analyze the effectiveness of their health system response, and provide lessons for other countries to control the epidemic and optimize their health system response. Methods: This study investigated and summarized COVID-19 data and health system response in four East Asian countries, China, Japan, Mongolia, and South Korea from national governments and ministries of health, WHO country offices, and official websites of international organizations, to assess the effectiveness of health system measures. Result: As of June 30, 2022, all four countries are in a declining portion of COVID-19. China has two waves, and new cases increased slowly, with the total cases per million remaining within 4, indicating a low level. Japan has experienced six waves, with case growth at an all-time high, total cases per million of 250.994. Mongolia started the epidemic later, but also experienced four waves, with total cases per million of 632.658, the highest of the four countries. South Korea has seen an increasing number of new cases per wave, with a total case per million of 473.759. Conclusion: In containment strategies adopted by China and Mongolia, and mitigation strategies adopted by Japan and South Korea, health systems have played important roles in COVID-19 prevention and control. While promoting vaccination, countries should pay attention to non-pharmaceutical health system measures, as evidenced by: focusing on public information campaigns to lead public minds; strengthening detection capabilities for early detection and identification; using technical ways to participate in contact tracing, and promoting precise judging isolation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Ásia Oriental/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Atenção à Saúde , Japão/epidemiologia , Mongólia/epidemiologia , República da Coreia/epidemiologia
7.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1522, 2024 Jun 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38844937

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the "supercompensation" effect of preschoolers during the coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown by comparing the changes in physical activity (PA), psychological, and sleep indicators before and after the lockdown. METHODS: A total of 127 children (aged 3-6 years) were recruited. Before and after the lockdown, the children's PA levels were measured using the ActiGraph GT3X+, and their psychological and sleep indicators were measured using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and Child Sleep Habit Questionnaire (CSHQ), respectively. RESULTS: Regarding PA, the children's total physical activity, low-intensity physical activity, and medium-intensity physical activity (MVPA) were higher after the lockdown than before the lockdown, with significant differences in MVPA (p < 0.05). Regarding psychology, the children's SDQ and multidimensional scores were better after the lockdown than before the lockdown, with a significant difference in SDQ scores (p < 0.05). Regarding sleep, the children's CSHQ scores were better after the lockdown than before the lockdown, with a highly significant difference in CSHQ scores (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: After lockdown, children's PA, psychological, and sleep effects were "supercompensated." In particular, the PA of preschoolers before, during, and after the lockdown may show a "baseline-inhibition-supercompensation" process.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Exercício Físico , Sono , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/psicologia , Criança , Masculino , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Exercício Físico/psicologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Quarentena/psicologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos
8.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1371453, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38784572

RESUMO

Introduction: Physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour are linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease, infections and dementia, as well as placing a significant economic burden on healthcare systems. The implementation of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown measures aimed at reducing virus transmission posed challenges to the opportunity to be physically active. This study investigates how the first UK COVID-19 lockdown affected objectively measured physical activity in older adults at higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods: We studied 48 individuals aged 55-74 years (81.3% female) with self-reported PA levels < 90 min/week and a QRISK2 score ≥ 10 (indicative of a ≥ 10% risk of a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years) without mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Physical activity data was collected using objective wrist-based activity monitors and analysed across three time periods, usual activity (pre-pandemic), the precautionary phase when the UK began advising on limiting social contact and finally during the first UK lockdown period was collected (27 January 2020 and 07 June 2020). Data was analysed using linear mixed effects model was used to investigate PA levels over the measured 12-week period. Effects of BMI, age, deprivation score and baseline PA levels on PA across the three measurement periods were also examined. Focus-group and individual interviews were conducted, and data were thematically analysed. Results: Average daily step count (-34% lower, p < 0.001) and active energy expenditure (-26% lower, p < 0.001) were significantly lower during the precautionary period compared with the usual activity period. Physical activity remained low during the UK lockdown period. Participants with a lower BMI engaged in significantly more (+45% higher daily steps p < 0.001) physical activity and those over 70 years old were more physically active than those under 70 years across the 12-week period (+23% higher daily steps p < 0.007). The risk of COVID-19 infection and restrictions because of lockdown measures meant some individuals had to find alternative methods to staying physical active. Participants described a lack of access to facilities and concerns over health related to COVID-19 as barriers to engaging in physical activity during lockdown. For some, this resulted in a shift towards less structured activities such as gardening or going for a walk. Discussion: The data presented shows that lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced physical activity among older individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease, particularly those with a higher body mass index. To support this population group in staying active during future lockdowns, a multifaceted strategy is needed, emphasizing psychosocial benefits and home-based physical activity. The MedEx-UK study was pre-registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03673722).


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Exercício Físico , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Comportamento Sedentário , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , SARS-CoV-2
9.
N Z Med J ; 137(1594): 13-22, 2024 May 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38696828

RESUMO

AIM: To better understand the reasons for reduced hospital admissions to a hospital general medicine service during COVID-19 lockdowns. METHODS: A statistical model for admission rates to the General Medicine Service at Wellington Hospital, Aotearoa New Zealand, since 2015 was constructed. This model was used to estimate changes in admission rates for transmissible and non-transmissible diagnoses during and following COVID-19 lockdowns for total admissions and various sub-groups. RESULTS: For the 2020 lockdown (n=734 admissions), the overall rate ratio of admissions was 0.71 compared to the pre-lockdown rate. Non-transmissible diagnoses, which constitute 87% of admissions, had an admission rate ratio of 0.77. Transmissible diagnoses, constituting 13% of admissions, had an admission rate ratio of 0.44. Reductions in admissions did not exacerbate existing ethnic disparities in access to health services. The lag in recovery of admission rates was more pronounced for transmissible than non-transmissible diagnoses. The 2021 lockdown (n=105 admissions) followed this pattern, but was of shorter duration with small numbers, and therefore measures were frequently not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The biggest relative reduction in hospital admission was due to a reduction in transmissible illness admissions, likely due to COVID-related public health measures. However, the biggest reduction in absolute terms was in non-transmissible illnesses, where hospital avoidance may be associated with increased morbidity or mortality.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Admissão do Paciente , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Admissão do Paciente/tendências , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2 , Masculino , Feminino , Quarentena , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Pandemias , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
10.
Int J Infect Dis ; 145: 107097, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38750721

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Removal of zero-COVID restrictions in China led to a surge in COVID-19 cases. In response, countries imposed restrictions on Chinese travelers. However, border policies imposed may not have been informed by accurate data and may not have provided substantial benefits. METHODS: We analyzed quarantines sufficient to prevent additional in-country transmission for February 13-19, 2023 based on World Health Organization (WHO) and self-reported infections to estimate prevalence. RESULTS: We have shown that self-reported prevalence data indicated more stringent border restrictions compared to WHO-published prevalence statistics. No travel restrictions were required for Singapore, South Korea, and Japan so that infections would not be greater than with complete border closure. However, a 1-, 2-, and 3-day quarantine were indicated for England, Germany, and Scotland respectively. A 10-, 13-, and 14-day quarantine were required for Italy, France, and the Philippines, respectively, to prevent an increase in within-country infections due to travel. Vietnam and Thailand required a complete border shutdown. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated the necessity for accurate and timely reporting of pandemic statistics to prevent an increase in viral spread. Through the minimum quarantine analysis, countries can use science to determine policy, minimize international friction, and improve the cost-efficiency of interventions.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , Viagem , Humanos , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Prevalência , Política de Saúde , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Teste para COVID-19/métodos
11.
NEJM Evid ; 3(5): EVIDra2300271, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38815175

RESUMO

AbstractAccurate diagnostics are critical in public health to ensure successful disease tracking, prevention, and control. Many of the same characteristics are desirable for diagnostic procedures in both medicine and public health: for example, low cost, high speed, low invasiveness, ease of use and interpretation, day-to-day consistency, and high accuracy. This review lays out five principles that are salient when the goal of diagnosis is to improve the overall health of a population rather than that of a particular patient, and it applies them in two important use cases: pandemic infectious disease and antimicrobial resistance.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Saúde Pública , Humanos , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Pandemias
12.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1454, 2024 May 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38816699

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Various measures taken against the COVID-19 pandemic are not only effective in reducing the spread of the disease, but also lead to some unexpected results. This article regarded these measures as an intervention and explored their impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Shantou, China. METHODS: The incidence rate and the surveillance data of tuberculosis from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2021 were provided by the Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute. Data were divided into pre-pandemic period (January 1st, 2018 - December 31st, 2019) and pandemic periods (January 1st, 2020 - December 31st, 2021). The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence prior to and during the COVID-19 epidemic. RESULTS: The results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis cases in Shantou decreased significantly (p < 0.05) during the pandemic as compared to that prior to the pandemic. Among them, the 45-64 age group and the 65 + age group have statistically significant declines. When patients were stratified by occupation, the unemployed and those working in agriculture reduced the most. CONCLUSIONS: In response to the pandemic, measures like lockdowns and quarantines seem to have reduced tuberculosis incidence. However, this does not imply a true decrease. Underlying causes for the reduced true incidence need further scrutiny. Findings offer a preliminary exploration of interventions designed for one disease but functioning as unexpected results for another.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Tuberculose , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Incidência , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/prevenção & controle , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Quarentena , Pandemias , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , SARS-CoV-2 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos
14.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1251, 2024 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38714971

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lockdowns have been implemented to limit the number of hospitalisations and deaths during the first wave of 2019 coronavirus disease. These measures may have affected differently death characteristics, such age and sex. France was one of the hardest hit countries in Europe with a decreasing east-west gradient in excess mortality. This study aimed at describing the evolution of age at death quantiles during the lockdown in spring 2020 (17 March-11 May 2020) in the French metropolitan regions focusing on 3 representatives of the epidemic variations in the country: Bretagne, Ile-de-France (IDF) and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (BFC). METHODS: Data were extracted from the French public mortality database from 1 January 2011 to 31 August 2020. The age distribution of mortality observed during the lockdown period (based on each decile, plus quantiles 1, 5, 95 and 99) was compared with the expected one using Bayesian non-parametric quantile regression. RESULTS: During the lockdown, 5457, 5917 and 22 346 deaths were reported in Bretagne, BFC and IDF, respectively. An excess mortality from + 3% in Bretagne to + 102% in IDF was observed during lockdown compared to the 3 previous years. Lockdown led to an important increase in the first quantiles of age at death, irrespective of the region, while the increase was more gradual for older age groups. It corresponded to fewer young people, mainly males, dying during the lockdown, with an increase in the age at death in the first quantile of about 7 years across regions. In females, a less significant shift in the first quantiles and a greater heterogeneity between regions were shown. A greater shift was observed in eastern region and IDF, which may also represent excess mortality among the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: This study focused on the innovative outcome of the age distribution at death. It shows the first quantiles of age at death increased differentially according to sex during the lockdown period, overall shift seems to depend on prior epidemic intensity before lockdown and complements studies on excess mortality during lockdowns.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , França/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Lactente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Quarentena , Distribuição por Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Recém-Nascido , Fatores Etários , Teorema de Bayes , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , SARS-CoV-2
15.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1393677, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38699417

RESUMO

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Results: Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Conclusion: Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Hospitalização , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Itália/epidemiologia , Criança , Adolescente , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Masculino , Distanciamento Físico , Hospitais Pediátricos/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Lactente , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , Instituições Acadêmicas , Estudos Controlados Antes e Depois , Pandemias
17.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1422, 2024 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38807095

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Public Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia. METHODS: Several epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed. RESULTS: CT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Malásia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/organização & administração , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos
18.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 3891, 2024 May 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38719858

RESUMO

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Transmissíveis , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , China/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Incidência , Estações do Ano , Saúde Pública , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos
19.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0301009, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38630742

RESUMO

The world's health, economic, and social systems have been adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. With lockdown measures being a common response strategy in most countries, many individuals were faced with financial and mental health challenges. The current study explored the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological well-being, perception of risk factors and coping strategies of two vulnerable groups in Malaysia, namely women and older adults from low-income households (USD592). A purposive sample of 30 women and 30 older adults was interviewed via telephone during Malaysia's Movement Control Order (MCO) regarding the challenges they faced throughout the pandemic. Thematic analysis was subsequently conducted to identify key themes. The themes identified from the thematic analysis indicated a degree of overlap between both groups. For women, seven themes emerged: 1) Psychological challenges due to COVID-19 pandemic, 2) Family violence, 3) Finance and employment related stress and anxiety, 4) Women's inequality and prejudice, 5) Coping strategies, 6) Professional support, and 7) Women's empowerment. Similarly, there were six themes for the older adults: 1) Adverse emotional experiences from COVID-19, 2) Threats to health security, 3) Loss of social connections, 4) Government aid to improve older adults' psychological well-being, 5) Psychological support from family members and pets, and 6) Self-reliance, religion, and spirituality. The findings provide valuable information on the specific burdens faced by these groups, and support psychological interventions and mitigations that would be appropriate to improve well-being during the recovery phase.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Capacidades de Enfrentamento , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Pandemias , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Ansiedade
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