Cancun under Gilbert : Preliminary observations

ABSTRACT

Hurricane Gilbert (1988) impacted Jamaica and, in Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula (states of Yucation and Quintana Roo), and Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, and Campeche. It caused billions of dollars of damage. The local disaster plan (PLAN DEN-III-E "CANCUN" 1986) is a 45 page document divided in four chapters. The first chapter describes the characteristics of the meteorological and hydrological hazards threatening the municipality. It includes consideration of the problem of high winds, the rise of the sea level (marea de tormenta), high waves, and flooding. The second chapter presents the definition of technical terms used in the description of tropical cyclones. The third chapter describes the preparations that people should take in anticipation of the tropical cyclone season (from July-October, inclusive). The fourth chapter summarizes what people should do after the storm has passed. This official plan has at least two major drawbacks. The first is that it presents too much information about tangential matters and insufficient information about what are or should be central concerns of local disaster managers. The plan presents a general description applicable to all local areas at risk of tropical cyclones, but it never relates this general information to the Municipality of Benito Juarez. Thus, the plan describes in technical terms the physical reasons for the rise in sea level brought about by cyclones; the speed and effect of high winds; the different categories of cyclones in accordance to the Saffir/Simpson scale; the direct, indirect, and intangible losses occasioned by hurricanes; the three types of tropical storm warnings (vigilancia, aviso, alerta). Absent from the report, however, is a detailed analysis of the physical layout of the land and sea, the human ecology of Cancun and its environs, and the probable ways hurricanes of various sizes will affect it