Pronóstico definitivo de vulnerabilidad 1999 - 2000 / Definitive prediction of vulnerability 1999 - 2000

ABSTRACT

This article of the bulletin is based on the analysis of data collected up until September 30th, 1999, and presents the definitive prognosis for food security during the lean season 99-00. It represents a re-evaluation of the first forecast (preliminary prognosis) conducted in May 1999, taking into consideration the relative importance and development of second season crops, as well as indicators of monetary incomes, compared to the structural potential of each district. The definitive prognosis for the 99-00 food security situation confirms, except for few districts, the first predictions expressed in May (preliminary prognosis) during the preliminary prognosis and is summarised by regions as follows Northern Region, Central Region and Southern Region. The updated projection presented here indicates that a maximum of 77.740 individuals might be in need of some food assistance to avoid significant malnutrition in the leaning period now beginning. The food deficit for this group should not exceed the blobal amount of 1.119 tonnes of cereals