Risk-Factor Analysis and Prediction-Model Constructionof Urethral Stricture after Hypospadias Surgery inChildren: A Single-Centre Retrospective Study

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study aimed to explore the incidence of postoperative urethral stricture in children after hypospadias surgery, analyse its risk factors, and construct a prediction model. Methods: We retrospectively analysed the clinical data of 402 children with hypospadias surgery in Hunan Children’s Hospital from January 2022 to January 2023. To explore the risk factors of urethral stricture after hypospadias surgery in children, the incidence of postoperative urethral stricture in children was statistically analysed, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were adopted. A prediction model was established, and the prediction efficiency of the model was examined using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: The incidence of postoperative urethral stricture in children after hypospadias surgery was 9.20% (37/402). On this basis, the children were divided into stricture group (SG, n = 37) and normal group (NG, n = 365). Both groups had overt differences in disease classification, urinary tract infection, indwelling-catheter time, and surgical methods (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that urinary tract infection, surgical methods, and long indwelling-catheter time were the risk factors (p < 0.001). The prediction model constructed based on the above results had certain prediction efficiency. Conclusions: More attention should be paid to children with urinary tract infection, high-risk surgery, and long indwelling-catheter time after hypospadias surgery. Our prediction model can serve as an effective reference for evaluating the occurrence of postoperative urethral stricture (AU)