Prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients using classification and regression tree analysis
Clinics
; 66(1): 119-124, 2011. ilus, tab
Article
em En
| LILACS
| ID: lil-578607
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
Recent guidelines recommend that all cirrhotic patients should undergo endoscopic screening for esophageal varices. That identifying cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices by noninvasive predictors would allow for the restriction of the performance of endoscopy to patients with a high risk of having varices. This study aimed to develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree analysis for the prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.METHODS:
309 cirrhotic patients (training sample, 187 patients; test sample 122 patients) were included. Within the training sample, the classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify predictors and prediction model of large esophageal varices. The prediction model was then further evaluated in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes.RESULTS:
The prevalence of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients was 50.8 percent. A tree model that was consisted of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time was developed by classification and regression tree analysis achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 84 percent for prediction of large esophageal varices. When reconstructed into two groups, the rate of varices was 83.2 percent for high-risk group and 15.2 percent for low-risk group. Accuracy of the tree model was maintained in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes.CONCLUSIONS:
A decision tree model that consists of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time may be useful for prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Árvores de Decisões
/
Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas
/
Cirrose Hepática
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Evaluation_studies
/
Guideline
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clinics
Assunto da revista:
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2011
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China
País de publicação:
Brasil