Evidence-based medicine as Bayesian decision-making.

ABSTRACT

We review two recent trends the emergence of evidence-based medicine and the growing use of Bayesian statistics in medical applications. Evidence-based medicine requires an integrated assessment of the available evidence, and associated uncertainty, but there is also an emphasis on decision-making, for individual patients, or at other points in the health-care system. This demands consideration of the values and costs associated with potential outcomes. We argue that the natural statistical framework for evidence-based medicine is a Bayesian approach to decision-making that incorporates an integrated summary of the available evidence and associated uncertainty with assessment of utilities. We outline a practical agenda for further development.