Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape.
Science
; 294(5543): 813-7, 2001 Oct 26.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-11679661
ABSTRACT
Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Surtos de Doenças
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Febre Aftosa
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Science
Ano de publicação:
2001
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido