Critical issues suggested by trends in food, population, and the environment to the year 2020.
Am J Agric Econ
; 79(5): 1467-70, 1997.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-12294473
ABSTRACT
PIP This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.^ieng
Palavras-chave
Demographic Factors; Economic Factors; Environment; Environmental Degradation; Estimation Technics; Food Supply; Natural Resources; Obstacles; Organization And Administration; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Projection; Poverty; Research Methodology; Research Report; Socioeconomic Factors; World
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pobreza
/
Crescimento Demográfico
/
Abastecimento de Alimentos
/
Previsões
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspecto:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
/
Equity_inequality
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Am J Agric Econ
Ano de publicação:
1997
Tipo de documento:
Article