Impact of the post-World War II generation on intensive care needs in Norway.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A high birth rate during the first two decades following World War II has increased the proportion of elderly people in present-day society and, consequently, the demand for health-care services. The impact on intensive care services may become dramatic because the age distribution of critically ill patients is skewed towards the elderly. We have used registry data and population statistics to forecast the demand for intensive care services in Norway up until the year 2025. METHODS: Data collected by the Norwegian intensive care registry (NIR), showing the age distribution in Norwegian intensive care units (ICU) during the years 2006 and 2007, were used with three different Norwegian prognostic models of population growth for the years 2008-2025 to compute the expected increase in intensive care unit bed-days (ICU bed-days). RESULTS: The elderly were overrepresented in Norwegian ICUs in 2006-2007, with patients from 60 to 79 years of age occupying 44% of ICU bed-days. Population growth from 2008 to 2025 was estimated to be from 11.1 to 26.4%, depending on the model used. Growth will be much larger in the age group 60-79 years. Other factors kept unchanged, this will result in an increase in the need for intensive care (ICU bed-days) of between 26.1 and 36.9%. CONCLUSION: The demand for intensive care beds will increase markedly in Norwegian hospitals in the near future. This will have serious implications for the planning of infrastructure, education of health care personnel, as well as financing of our health care system.