Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model.
PLoS Curr
; 1: RRN1129, 2009 Nov 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20029667
ABSTRACT
Determining the number of cases in an epidemic is fundamental to properly evaluate several disease features of high relevance for public health policies such as mortality, morbidity or hospitalization rates. Surveillance efforts are however incomplete especially at the early stage of an outbreak due to the ongoing learning process about the disease characteristics. An example of this is represented by the number of H1N1 influenza cases in Mexico during the first months of the current pandemic. Several estimates using backtrack calculation based on imported cases from Mexico in other countries point out that the actual number of cases was likely orders of magnitude larger than the number of confirmed cases. Realistic computational models fed with the best available estimates of the basic disease parameters can provide an ab-initio calculation of the number of cases in Mexico as other countries. Here we use the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model to obtain estimates of the size of the epidemic in Mexico as well as of imported cases at the end of April and beginning of May. We find that the reference range for the number of cases in Mexico on April 30th is 121,000 to 1,394,000 in good agreement with the recent estimates by Lipsitch et al. [M. Lipsitch, PloS One 4e6895 (2009)]. The number of imported cases from Mexico in several countries is found to be in good agreement with the surveillance data.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Mexico
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS Curr
Ano de publicação:
2009
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Itália