Predicting live birth chances for women with multiple consecutive failing IVF cycles: a simple and accurate prediction for routine medical practice.
Reprod Biol Endocrinol
; 11: 1, 2013 Jan 09.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-23302328
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Women having experienced several consecutive failing IVF cycles constitute a critical and particular subset of patients, for which growing perception of irremediable failure, increasing costs and IVF treatment related risks necessitate appropriate decision making when starting or not a new cycle. Predicting chances of LB might constitute a useful tool for discussion between the patient and the clinician. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model for use in routine medical practice. The currently available predictive models applicable to general populations cannot be considered as accurate enough for this purpose.METHODS:
Patients with at least four consecutive Failing cycles (CFCs) were selected. We constructed a predictive model of LB occurrence during the last cycle, by using a stepwise logistic regression, using all the baseline patient characteristics and intermediate stage variables during the four first cycles.RESULTS:
On as set of 151 patients, we identified five determinant predictors the number of previous cycles with at least one gestational sac (NGS), the mean number of good-quality embryos, age, male infertility (MI) aetiology and basal FSH. Our model was characterized by a much higher discrimination as the existing models (C-statistics=0.76), and an excellent calibration.CONCLUSIONS:
Couples having experienced multiple IVF failures need precise and appropriate information to decide to resume or interrupt their fertility project. Our essential objective was to dispose of a simple and accurate prediction model to allow a routine practice use. Our model is adapted to thispurpose:
It is very simple, combines five easily collected variables in a short calculation; it is more accurate than existing models, with a fair discrimination and a well calibrated prediction.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Fertilização in vitro
/
Falha de Tratamento
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Newborn
/
Pregnancy
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Reprod Biol Endocrinol
Assunto da revista:
ENDOCRINOLOGIA
/
MEDICINA REPRODUTIVA
Ano de publicação:
2013
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
França
País de publicação:
ENGLAND
/
ESCOCIA
/
GB
/
GREAT BRITAIN
/
INGLATERRA
/
REINO UNIDO
/
SCOTLAND
/
UK
/
UNITED KINGDOM