[Orthopaedic and trauma surgical care until 2050. Analysis of the utilization behavior for relevant diseases and derivation of the number of medical service providers]. / Orthopädisch-unfallchirurgische Versorgung bis 2050. Analyse des Inanspruchnahmeverhaltens bei relevanten Erkrankungen und Ableitung der Häufigkeit ärztlicher Leistungserbringer.

BACKGROUND: Due to current and prospective demographic developments, the provision of high-quality medical care is not guaranteed in Germany. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to analyze the utilization of medical service providers for diseases related to orthopedic/trauma surgery and deduce the corresponding number of medical service providers until 2050. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data provided by the Statistical Offices of the Federal Republic and the Federal States and the Scientific Institute of the AOK (2008-2012) were used to analyze the utilization behavior of four pre-determined orthopedic/trauma surgery disease groups (osteoarthritis, back pain, osteoporosis, trauma). Routine data of the current (2012) health care provision delivered by the compulsory health insurances (GKV) are the basis of the prognosis. Using population projections from the Federal Statistical Office, the health care demand until 2050 was predicted and using statistics from the German Medical Association, the number of required health care providers was determined. RESULTS: An increase in physician consultations until 2040 is expected for osteoarthritis (+ 21 %), osteoporosis (26 %), and trauma (+ 13 %). From 2040-2050 the health care utilization behavior of all examined diseases is expected to decrease. The increasing health care usage behavior until 2040 is associated with an increase in health care providers. CONCLUSIONS: Until 2030 a significant increase in the burden of orthopedic/trauma surgery diseases is expected. In 2050 the level of health care needs will be equivalent to that in 2030. Comprehensive needs assessment and planning are needed in order to create health care provision structures and processes that address potential changes in utilization behavior.