Is hypercapnia associated with poor prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease? A long-term follow-up cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether hypercapnia may predict the prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study comparing the survival of patients with COPD and normocapnia to those with chronic hypercapnia. SETTING: Patients with consecutive COPD were enrolled between 1 May 1993 and 31 October 2006 at two medical centres. Follow-up was censored on 31 October 2011. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 275 patients with stable COPD and aged 40-85 years were enrolled. Diagnosis of hypercapnia was confirmed by blood gas analysis. Patients with near-terminal illness or comorbidities that affect PaCO2 (obstructive sleep apnoea, obesity-related hypoventilation, or neuromuscular disease) were excluded. The outcome of 98 patients with normocapnia and 177 with chronic hypercapnia was analysed. OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall survival. RESULTS: Median survival was longer in patients with normocapnia than in those with hypercapnia (6.5 vs 5.0 years, p=0.016). Multivariate COX regression analysis indicated that age (HR=1.043, 95% CI 1.012 to 1.076), Charlson Index, which is a measure of comorbidity (HR=1.172, 95% CI 1.067 to 1.288), use of medication (HR=0.565, 95% CI 0.379 to 0.842), body mass index (BMI) (HR=0.922, 95% CI 0.883 to 0.963), PaCO2 (HR=1.026, 95% CI 1.011 to 1.042), Cor pulmonale (HR=2.164, 95% CI 1.557 to 3.006), non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation (NPPV) (HR=0.615, 95% CI 0.429 to 0.881) and per cent of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%) (HR=0.979, 95% CI 0.967 to 0.991), were independent risk factors for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Increased age, Charlson Index, chronic hypercapnia and Cor pulmonale, and decreased FEV1%, use of medication, BMI and NPPV, were associated with a poor prognosis in patients with COPD.