Long-Term Response of Nutrient-Limited Forests to CO"2 Enrichment; Equilibrium Behavior of Plant-Soil Models.

ABSTRACT

Established process-based models of forest biomass production in relation to atmospheric CO"2 concentration (McMurtrie 1991) and soil carbon/nutrient dynamics (Parton et al. 1987) are integrated to derive the @'Generic Decomposition and Yield@' model (G'DAY). The model is used to describe how photosynthesis and nutritional factors interact to determine the productivity of forests growing under nitrogen-limited conditions. A simulated instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO"2 concentration leads to a growth response that is initially large (27% above productivity at current CO"2) but declines to <10% elevation within 5 yr. The decline occurs because increases in photosynthetic carbon gain at elevated CO"2 are not matched by increases in nutrient supply. Lower foliar N concentrations at elevated CO"2 have two countervailing effects on forest production decreased rates of N cycling between vegetation and soils (with negative consequences for productivity), and reduced rates of N loss through gaseous emission, fire, and leaching. Theoretical analysis reveals that there is an enduring response to CO"2 enrichment, but that the magnitude of the long-term equilibrium response is extremely sensitive to the assumed rate of gaseous emission resulting from mineralization of nitrogen. Theory developed to analyze G'DAY is applicable to other published production-decomposition models describing the partitioning of soil carbon among compartments with widely differing decay-time constants.