Non-linear Equation using Plasma Brain Natriuretic Peptide Levels to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure.
Sci Rep
; 6: 37073, 2016 11 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27845390
ABSTRACT
Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is the most effective predictor of outcomes in chronic heart failure (CHF). This study sought to determine the qualitative relationship between the BNP levels at discharge and on the day of cardiovascular events in CHF patients. We devised a mathematical probabilistic model between the BNP levels at discharge (y) and on the day (t) of cardiovascular events after discharge for 113 CHF patients (Protocol I). We then prospectively evaluated this model on another set of 60 CHF patients who were readmitted (Protocol II). P(t|y) was the probability of cardiovascular events occurring after >t, the probability on t was given as p(t|y) = -dP(t|y)/dt, and p(t|y) = pP(t|y) = αyßP(t|y), along with p = αyß (α and ß were constant); the solution was p(t|y) = αyß exp(-αyßt). We fitted this equation to the data set of Protocol I using the maximum likelihood principle, and we obtained the model p(t|y) = 0.000485y0.24788 exp(-0.000485y0.24788t). The cardiovascular event-free rate was computed as P(t) = 1/60Σi=1,
,60 exp(-0.000485yi0.24788t), based on this model and the BNP levels yi in a data set of Protocol II. We confirmed no difference between this model-based result and the actual event-free rate. In conclusion, the BNP levels showed a non-linear relationship with the day of occurrence of cardiovascular events in CHF patients.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Peptídeo Natriurético Encefálico
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Insuficiência Cardíaca
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Modelos Cardiovasculares
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
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Qualitative_research
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Japão