Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in Thai adults: results from an 8-year prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The global prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is high and is increasing in countries undergoing rapid socio-economic development, including Thailand. Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake may contribute to the risk of developing T2DM. However, few studies have assessed this association in Asian populations, and the results have been inconsistent. We aimed to assess that association in a prospective study of Thai adults. METHODS: Data were from Thai Cohort Study participants surveyed in 2005, 2009 and 2013. The nation-wide sample included adult cohort members who were free of diabetes in 2005 and who were followed-up in 2013 (n=39 175). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess associations between SSB intake and eight-year T2DM incidence. We used a counterfactual mediation analysis to explore potential mediation of the SSB intake and T2DM-risk relationship. RESULTS: In women (but not men) consuming SSBs once or more per day (versus rarely) was associated with increased T2DM incidence at the 8-year follow-up (odds ratio (OR)=2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-3.9). Obesity in 2009 was found to mediate ~23% of the total association between SSB intake in 2005 and T2DM risk in 2013 (natural indirect effect 1.15, 95% CI (1.02, 1.31). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent SSB consumption associated with higher T2DM incidence in women but not men. We found that a moderate proportion of the SSB-T2DM relationship was mediated through body mass index (BMI). Our findings suggest that targeting SSB consumption can help prevent a national rise in the incidence of T2DM.