Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 114(47): E10142-E10150, 2017 11 21.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29109266
ABSTRACT
Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Abies
/
Dispersão Vegetal
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article