Seasonal Patterns of Japanese Encephalitis and Associated Meteorological Factors in Taiwan.

ABSTRACT

The persistent transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Taiwan necessitates exploring the risk factors of occurrence of Japanese encephalitis (JE). The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of JE in Taiwan. We collected data for cases of JE reported to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) from 2000 to 2014. Meteorological data were obtained from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The relationships between weather variability and the incidence of JE in Taiwan were determined via Poisson regression analysis and a case-crossover methodology. During the 15-year study period, a total of 379 cases of JE were reported. The incidence of JE showed significant seasonality, with the majority of cases occurring in summertime (for oscillation, p < 0.001). The number of JE cases started to increase at temperatures of 22 °C (r² = 0.88, p < 0.001). Similarly, the number of JE cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 70-74% (r² = 0.75, p < 0.005). The number of JE cases was positively associated with mean temperature and relative humidity in the period preceding the infection. In conclusion, the occurrence of JE is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.