Statistical modelling of sea lice count data from salmon farms in the Faroe Islands.

ABSTRACT

Fiskaaling regularly counts the number of sea lice in the attached development stages (chalimus, mobiles and adult) for the salmon farms in the Faroe Islands. A statistical model of the data is developed. In the model, the sea-lice infection is represented by the chalimus (or mobile) lice developing into adult lice and is used to simulate past and current levels of adult lice-including treatments-as well as to predict the adult sea lice level 1-2 months into the future. Time series of the chalimus and adult lice show cross-correlations that shift in time and grow in size with temperature. This implies in situ the temperature-dependent development times of about 56 down to 42 days and the inverted development times (growth rates) of 0.018 up to 0.024 lice/day at 8-10°C. The temperature dependence DT=α1T+α2α3=17,840T+7.439-2.128is approximated byD1T=105.2-6.578T≈49 days at the mean temperature 8.5°C-similar to DchaT=100.6-6.507T≈45 days from EWOS data. The observed development times at four sites for a year (2010-11) were 49, 50, 51 and 52 days, respectively. Finally, we estimate the sea lice production from fish farms to discuss approaches to control the sea lice epidemics-preferably by natural means. This study is useful for understanding sea lice levels and treatments, and for in situ analysis of the sea-lice development times and growth rates.