Risk factors for development and progression of diabetic retinopathy in Dutch patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

PURPOSE: To investigate risk factors for the development and progression of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and long-term visual outcomes in Dutch patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). METHODS: Cumulative incidences were calculated for DR, vision-threatening DR (VTDR), defined as (pre)proliferative DR and diabetic macular oedema, and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) <0.5 and <0.3 at the most recent eye examination. The following factors were assessed: duration of diabetes, age of onset of T1DM, gender, mean HbA1c, HbA1c variability (defined as coefficient of variation of five separate HbA1c measurements), mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index, albuminuria and lipid profile. We used multivariable Cox regression models to identify factors associated with DR development and progression to VTDR. RESULTS: We found 25-year cumulative incidences of 63% for DR, 21% for VTDR, 2% for BCVA <0.5, and 1% for BCVA <0.3. Mean HbA1c (HR 1.023, p < 0.001), HbA1c variability (HR 1.054, p < 0.001), age of onset of T1DM (HR 1.024, p < 0.001), HDL cholesterol (HR 0.502, p = 0.002) and total cholesterol (HR 1.210, p = 0.029) showed an independent association with faster development of any form of DR. The mean HbA1c (HR 1.023, p < 0.001) and the presence of albuminuria (HR 2.940, p = 0.028) were associated with faster progression to VTDR. CONCLUSION: These data show relatively low cumulative incidences of DR, VTDR and visual impairment. Higher mean HbA1c, HbA1c variability, age of onset of T1DM and total cholesterol were independently associated with the risk of DR development, and a protective association was found for HDL cholesterol in subjects with T1DM. Mean HbA1c and presence of albuminuria were associated with progression of DR.