An Exploration of the Spatiotemporal and Demographic Patterns of Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in West Africa Using Open Access Data Sources.

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of exploratory analytical techniques using publically available data in informing interventions in case of infectious diseases outbreaks. More exactly spatiotemporal and multivariate methods were used to characterize the dynamics of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa, and propose plausible relationships with demographic/social risk factors. The analysis showed that there was significant spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal dependence in the evolution of the disease. For the first part of the epidemic, the cases were highly clustered in a few administrative units, in the proximity of the point of origin of the outbreak, possibly offering the opportunity to stop the spread of the disease. Later in the epidemic, high clusters were observed, but only in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Although not definitely factors of risk, in the setting in which the epidemic arose, our analysis suggests infrastructure, access to and use of health services, and connectivity possibly accelerated and magnified the spread of EVD. Also, the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic can be clearly shown - with evident application in the early stages of management of epidemics. In particular, we found that the spatial-temporal analytic tool SaTScan may be used effectively during the evolution of an epidemic to identify areas for targeted intervention. In the case of EVD epidemic in West Africa, better data and integration local knowledge and customs may have been more useful to recognize the proper response.