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Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.
Lo, Y T Eunice; Mitchell, Daniel M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ebi, Kristie L; Frumhoff, Peter C; Millar, Richard J; Roberts, William; Sera, Francesco; Sparrow, Sarah; Uhe, Peter; Williams, Gethin.
Afiliação
  • Lo YTE; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
  • Mitchell DM; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
  • Gasparrini A; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol BS5 9LT, UK.
  • Vicedo-Cabrera AM; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
  • Ebi KL; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Frumhoff PC; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
  • Millar RJ; Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.
  • Roberts W; Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA 02478, USA.
  • Sera F; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
  • Sparrow S; Committee on Climate Change, London SW1W 8NR, UK.
  • Uhe P; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
  • Williams G; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Sci Adv ; 5(6): eaau4373, 2019 06.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31183397
Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Transtornos de Estresse por Calor / Aquecimento Global / Temperatura Alta Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: Sci Adv Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Transtornos de Estresse por Calor / Aquecimento Global / Temperatura Alta Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: Sci Adv Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Estados Unidos