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[Evaluation of the application of moving epidemic method on making influenza epidemic thresholds in the 7 climate zones in China].
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 53(10): 1007-1011, 2019 Oct 06.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31607046

OBJECTIVE:

We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland.

METHODS:

The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM.

RESULTS:

Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%).

CONCLUSION:

Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.
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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Bases de dados internacionais Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Orthomyxoviridae / Influenza Humana / Epidemias Aspecto clínico: Diagnóstico / Predição / Prognóstico Limite: Humanos País/Região como assunto: Ásia Idioma: Chinês Revista: Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Artigo País de afiliação: China