Modeling Early Stages of Bone and Joint Infections Dynamics in Humans: A Multi-Agent, Multi-System Based Model.

ABSTRACT

Diagnosis and management of bone and joint infections (BJI) is a challenging task. The high intra and inter patient's variability in terms of clinical presentation makes it impossible to rely on a systematic description or classical statistical analysis for its diagnosis. Advances can be achieved through a better understanding of the system behavior that results from the interactions between the components at a micro-scale level, which is difficult to mastered using traditional methods. Multiple studies from the literature report factors and interactions that affect the dynamics of the BJI system. The objectives of this study were (i) to perform a systematic review to identify relevant interactions between agents (cells, pathogens) and parameters values that characterize agents and interactions, and (ii) to develop a two dimensional computational model of the BJI system based on the results of the systematic review. The model would simulate the behavior resulting from the interactions on the cellular and molecular levels to explore the BJI dynamics, using an agent-based modeling approach. The BJI system's response to different microbial inoculum levels was simulated. The model succeeded in mimicking the dynamics of bacteria, the innate immune cells, and the bone mass during the first stage of infection and for different inoculum levels in a consistent manner. The simulation displayed the destruction in bone tissue as a result of the alteration in bone remodeling process during the infection. The model was used to generate different patterns of system behaviors that could be analyzed in further steps. Simulations results suggested evidence for the existence of latent infections. Finally, we presented a way to analyze and synthesize massive simulated data in a concise and comprehensive manner based on the semi-supervised identification of ordinary differential equations (ODE) systems. It allows to use the known framework for temporal and structural ODE analyses and therefore summarize the whole simulated system dynamical behavior. This first model is intended to be validated by in vivo or in vitro data and expected to generate hypotheses to be challenged by real data. Step by step, it can be modified and complexified based on the test/validation iteration cycles.