A Predictive Scoring System Based on Inflammatory and Tumor Markers for Gastric Cancer Patients Undergoing Curative Resection.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Inflammation is closely associated with prognosis in gastric cancer (GC). We aimed to assess the predictive value of existing inflammatory and tumor markers in GC, to establish a systemic score based on valuable predictors for early risk stratification of patients, and to create a nomogram for individual risk prediction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 401 GC patients who underwent curative gastrectomy from 2007 to 2016. RESULTS: Through univariate and multivariate survival analysis, age (>60 years), depth of invasion (pT3-4), lymph node invasion (pN1-3), histologic classification (poor), adjuvant chemotherapy (no), albumin fibrinogen ratio (AFR) (<13.33), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) (>27 U/mL) independently indicated inferior disease-free survival (DFS). In addition, depth of invasion, lymph node invasion, histologic classification, adjuvant chemotherapy, AFR, and CA19-9 were incorporated in the prediction of cancer-specific survival (CSS). A combined AFR and CA19-9 prognostic score (CACPS) was established. Lower AFR (<13.33) and higher CA19-9 (>27 U/mL) were allocated 1 point each in the CACPS (range, 0-2). CACPS can be used as an independent predictor for DFS and CSS in multivariate analysis (for DFS CACPS 1 HR=2.039, 95% CI 1.357-3.065, P=0.001; CACPS 2 HR=2.419, 95% CI 1.397-4.186, P=0.002; for CSS CACPS 1 HR=2.035, 95% CI 1.292-3.205, P=0.002; CACPS 2 HR=2.255, 95% CI 1.252-4.059, P=0.007), with a higher CACPS indicating poor survival according to Kaplan-Meier curves (both P<0.001). Moreover, a nomogram for DFS and CSS was generated using the significant characteristics in the multivariate analysis, which exhibited high accuracy (for DFS C-index=0.743, 95% CI 0.698-0.788; for CSS C-index=0.766, 95% CI 0.718-0.814) versus tumor-node-metastasis staging (for DFS C-index=0.692, 95% CI 0.650-0.734; for CSS C-index=0.720, 95% CI 0.675-0.764). CONCLUSION: Preoperative CACPS exhibited high accuracy in predicting prognosis for GC patients who underwent curative resection.