Nomograms for predicting overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma: a population-based study using SEER database.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To establish and validate nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC). METHODS: Patients diagnosed with pRCC between 2010 and 2014 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively included in this study and divided into training and validation groups randomly. Uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify significant variables related to OS and CSS in the training group. Based on results of multivariate Cox regression analysis, nomograms for 3- and 5-year CSS and OS were established, respectively. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves were produced to learn the actual effects of different variables. Finally, the nomograms were evaluated both in the training group and the validation group using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. RESULTS: A total of 4,859 eligible patients were enrolled, with 3,403 categorized into the training group and 1,456 into the validation group. Seven factors [age, T stage, N stage, M stage, use of surgery/lymph node removal (LNR) and insurance status] were significantly related to OS and seven factors (age, T stage, N stage, M stage and use of surgery/chemotherapy/LNR) were significantly associated with CSS. These factors were eventually included in the predictive nomograms. The C-indexes for OS in the training and validation groups were 0.764 and 0.723 respectively, and 0.859 and 0.824 for CSS. The 3- and 5-year AUCs for OS were 0.779 and 0.752 in the training cohort, and 0.749 and 0.722 in the validation cohort. Similarly, 3- and 5-year AUCs for OS were 0.871 and 0.844 in the training cohort, and 0.853 and 0.822 in the validation group. Finally, the calibration curves suggested that the predictive nomograms had a good consistency between the observed and the predicted survival. CONCLUSIONS: It was the first time to develop nomograms to predict the survival outcomes of pRCC patients. The prognostic nomograms were reliable with high accuracy, which might have guiding significance for clinical practice.