Epidemiological behavior and current forecast of syphilis in Mexico: increase in male population.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Even when new cases of syphilis are notifiable since 1944, the Mexican National Epidemiological Surveillance System lacks information on the changes of the rate of case reports considering the geographic and demographic variables. Therefore, it is necessary to have evidence, with particular attention to the study of the epidemiological behavior by the identification of risk factors and groups. The objective of this study was to analyze the epidemiology, geographical distribution, and forecast of syphilis in Mexico. STUDY DESIGN: The design of the study was a secondary research of epidemiological databases. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the national surveillance data (2007-2017) of acquired and congenital syphilis (CS) issued by the General Directorate of Epidemiology was performed. RESULTS: Of all cases, 34,998 and 1030 cases were reported for acquired syphilis (AS) and CS , respectively, reflecting an increasing trend in the whole country for both diseases. Cases and incidence of AS per year showed that, male gender presented an increase in reproductive age. Distribution of the rate of case reports is mostly commanded by the states in the extreme north (Gulf of California and northern Gulf of Mexico) and south (Gulf of southern Mexico and the Caribbean Sea). Likewise, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was selected as the best-fit model for the forecast analysis. This model was used to forecast AS cases during 2018-2019. AS may have a slight fluctuation (on the rise) during the following 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the importance of intensifying, as well as expanding screening and treatment in adult population, including men, who are not routinely benefiting from maternal and reproductive service-based syphilis screening and treatment.