The Epistemology of a Positive SARS-CoV-2 Test.
Acta Biotheor
; 69(3): 359-375, 2021 Sep.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32888175
ABSTRACT
We investigate the epistemological consequences of a positive polymerase chain reaction SARS-CoV test for two relevant hypotheses (i) V is the hypothesis that an individual has been infected with SARS-CoV-2; (ii) C is the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is the cause of flu-like symptoms in a given patient. We ask two fundamental epistemological questions regarding each hypothesis:
First, how much confirmation does a positive test lend to each hypothesis? Second, how much evidence does a positive test provide for each hypothesis against its negation? We respond to each question within a formal Bayesian framework. We construe degree of confirmation as the difference between the posterior probability of the hypothesis and its prior, and the strength of evidence for a hypothesis against its alternative in terms of their likelihood ratio. We find that test specificity-and coinfection probabilities when making inferences about C-were key determinants of confirmation and evidence. Tests with < 87% specificity could not provide strong evidence (likelihood ratio > 8) for V against ¬V regardless of sensitivity. Accordingly, low specificity tests could not provide strong evidence in favor of C in all plausible scenarios modeled. We also show how a positive influenza A test disconfirms C and provides weak evidence against C in dependence on the probability that the patient is influenza A infected given that his/her symptoms are not caused by SARS-CoV-2. Our analysis points out some caveats that should be considered when attributing symptoms or death of a positively tested patient to SARS-CoV-2.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde
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Coinfecção
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Teste para COVID-19
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SARS-CoV-2
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COVID-19
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Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Acta Biotheor
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Alemanha