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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.
Leclère, David; Obersteiner, Michael; Barrett, Mike; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chaudhary, Abhishek; De Palma, Adriana; DeClerck, Fabrice A J; Di Marco, Moreno; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dürauer, Martina; Freeman, Robin; Harfoot, Michael; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hellweg, Stefanie; Hilbers, Jelle P; Hill, Samantha L L; Humpenöder, Florian; Jennings, Nancy; Krisztin, Tamás; Mace, Georgina M; Ohashi, Haruka; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Schipper, Aafke M; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Meijl, Hans; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Visconti, Piero; Alkemade, Rob; Almond, Rosamunde; Bunting, Gill; Burgess, Neil D; Cornell, Sarah E; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Ferrier, Simon; Fritz, Steffen; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Grooten, Monique; Harwood, Thomas; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Hoskins, Andrew J; Jung, Martin; Kram, Tom; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Matsui, Tetsuya; Meyer, Carsten; Nel, Deon; Newbold, Tim.
Afiliação
  • Leclère D; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. leclere@iiasa.ac.at.
  • Obersteiner M; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. oberstei@iiasa.ac.at.
  • Barrett M; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK. oberstei@iiasa.ac.at.
  • Butchart SHM; WWF UK, The Living Planet Centre, Woking, UK.
  • Chaudhary A; BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.
  • De Palma A; Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
  • DeClerck FAJ; Institute of Food, Nutrition and Health, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Di Marco M; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, Kanpur, India.
  • Doelman JC; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  • Dürauer M; EAT, Oslo, Norway.
  • Freeman R; Bioversity International, CGIAR, Rome, Italy.
  • Harfoot M; CSIRO Land and Water, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  • Hasegawa T; Department of Biology and Biotechnology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
  • Hellweg S; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Hilbers JP; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Hill SLL; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK.
  • Humpenöder F; UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK.
  • Jennings N; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Krisztin T; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Mace GM; College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan.
  • Ohashi H; Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
  • Popp A; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Purvis A; Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
  • Schipper AM; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  • Tabeau A; UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK.
  • Valin H; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  • van Meijl H; Dotmoth, Dundry, UK.
  • van Zeist WJ; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Visconti P; Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research (CEBR), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
  • Alkemade R; Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Almond R; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
  • Bunting G; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  • Burgess ND; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, UK.
  • Cornell SE; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Di Fulvio F; Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
  • Ferrier S; Wageningen Economic Research (WECR), Wageningen University and Research, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Fritz S; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Fujimori S; Wageningen Economic Research (WECR), Wageningen University and Research, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Grooten M; Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • Harwood T; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Havlík P; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Herrero M; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK.
  • Hoskins AJ; Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research (CEBR), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
  • Jung M; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
  • Kram T; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • Lotze-Campen H; WWF Netherlands, Zeist, The Netherlands.
  • Matsui T; BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK.
  • Meyer C; UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK.
  • Nel D; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
  • Newbold T; Ecosystem Services Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Nature ; 585(7826): 551-556, 2020 09.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32908312
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Conservação dos Recursos Naturais / Biodiversidade / Política Ambiental / Atividades Humanas Limite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nature Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Áustria País de publicação: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Conservação dos Recursos Naturais / Biodiversidade / Política Ambiental / Atividades Humanas Limite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Nature Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Áustria País de publicação: Reino Unido