Unequal sisters - Past and potential future range development of Anatolian and Hyrcanian brown frogs.

Phylogeography can reconstruct historical evolutionary processes by comparing historical patterns of gene flow, divergence among species and by using species distribution models (SDM) upon geographic distribution. We investigate the phylogeographic patterns of Anatolian brown frogs including R. macrocnemis and R. tavasensis as well as the Hyrcanian brown frog, R. pseudodalmatina, using a fragment of the mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene for 145 specimens across the entire range of these frogs. We calculate parameters of molecular diversity, such as the number of variable sites (S), the number of haplotypes (h), haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (π). We generated a haplotype network and used three methods (Neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots) to reconstruct the demographic histories of R. macrocnemis and R. pseudodalmatina. Finally, we used SDMs to predict the habitat suitability for three periods: The Present Day, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the future until 2070 for R. macrocnemis and R. pseudodalmatina. Our phylogenetic analyses support a late Miocene origin of Anatolian and Hyrcanian lineages. Hyrcanian brown frogs were enclosed in lowlands of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea after the uplift of the Elburz range and the Armenian plateau. The formation of a salinity belt from the north Aegean corridor (the south western Turkey) to northward during the Late Tortonian led to the subdivision of ancestor of the Anatolian lineage into today isolated western and eastern populations. The salinity belt had a considerable impact on the divergence of R. tavasensis from R. macrocnemis. Combined historical demographic analyses and SDMs revealed a rapid expansion occurring during the Pleistocene in R. macrocnemis and R. pseudodalmatina. Currently, suitable habitat for R. macrocnemis has declined compared to the LGM, and the species is predicted to do even worse under future climatic conditions. In contrast, R. pseudodalmatina found suitable habitat from the LGM to present within its restricted distribution area; it is predicted to do fine even under future climate.