Prioritisation of areas for early detection of southward movement of arctic fox rabies based on historical surveillance data in Quebec, Canada.
Epidemiol Infect
; 149: e20, 2020 12 17.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33327978
ABSTRACT
Arctic rabies virus variant (ARVV) is enzootic in Quebec (Canada) north of the 55th parallel. With climate change, increased risk of re-incursion of ARVV in more densely populated southern regions raises public and animal health concerns. The objective of this study was to prioritise geographical areas to target for an early detection of ARVV incursion south of the 55th parallel based on the historical spatio-temporal trends of reported rabies in foxes in Quebec. Descriptive analyses of fox rabies cases from 1953 to 2017 were conducted. Three periods show increases in the number of fox rabies cases in southern regions and indicate incursion from northern areas or neighbouring provinces. The available data, particularly in central and northern regions of the province, were scarce and of low spatial resolution, making it impossible to identify the path of spread with precision. Hence, we investigated the use of multiple criteria, such as historical rabies cases, human population density and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) relative abundance, to prioritise areas for enhanced surveillance. This study underscores the need to define and maintain new criteria for selecting samples to be analysed in order to detect rapidly ARVV cases outside the current enzootic area and any potential re-incursion of the virus into central and southern regions of the province.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Raiva
/
Raposas
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
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Screening_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Canadá