Economic sensitivity analysis of dual perspectives induced by energy scarcity for energy-dependent region.

ABSTRACT

Rapid industrialization leads to potential energy scarcity. The formulation of energy intervention can alleviate the economic losses caused by insufficient energy inputs in advance. In this study, the energy dependency and sensitivity quantification model (EDSQ) is firstly developed to evaluate the impacts of insufficient energy support on economic development under network-based perspective and sector-based perspective. A special case study for the Province of Shanxi, China, is conducted to illustrate the potential benefits of its use in the formulation of energy intervention for energy-dependent regions. Seven energy groups are explored to gain more insights into the impacts of specific energy groups on energy metabolism and the complicated interactions among sectors. It is found that the energy metabolism of Shanxi is under an unhealthy state. The internal flows are dominated by exploitation and competitive relationships, which is not conducive to effective energy metabolism. The hierarchy analysis indicates that the pulling force is hardly affected by the classified energy groups but the driving force is sensitive, which further reveals that the producers can choose different energy sources according to their production structure. Faced with potential energy scarcity, the shortage of coal may bring considerable economic losses. The energy intervention should be formulated for the sectors that are less dependent on energy. However, it is not recommended to curb energy use in the petroleum, coking, nuclear fuel processing and coal mining sectors, because their sectoral losses can impose significant losses to the entire network. Thus, the scientific results of this study can provide academic support for quantifying the impact of potential energy scarcity, and guide the formulation of energy intervention to achieve sustainable development for energy-dependent regions.