Global, regional, and national burden of aortic aneurysm, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: This study aimed at evaluating the age, sex, and country-income patterns in aortic aneurysm disease burden, analysing trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), as well as their causal drivers and risk factors, using the 2017 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2017). METHODS AND RESULTS: We described the temporal, global, and regional (195 countries) patterns of aortic aneurysm (thoracic and abdominal) mortality, YLLs, their drivers [sociodemographic index (SDI), healthcare access and quality index (HAQ index)] and risk factors using the GBD 1990-2017. Correlation and mixed multilevel modelling between aortic aneurysm mortality, YLLs, HAQ index and other variables were applied. From 1990 to 2017, a global declining trend in age-standardized aortic aneurysm mortality was found [2.88 deaths/100 000 (95% uncertainty intervals, UI 2.79 to 3.03) in 1990 and 2.19 deaths/100 000 (95% UI 2.09 to 2.28) in 2017]. Among high-income countries (HICs) a consistent declining Spearman's correlation between age-standardised aortic aneurysm mortality, SDI (HICs; 1990 rho 0.57, P ≤ 0.001; 2017 rho 0.41, P = 0.001) and HAQ index was observed (HICs; 1990 rho 0.50, P <0.001; 2016 rho 0.35, P = 0.006); in comparison with low- and middle-income countries where correlation trends were weak and mixed. At a global level, higher HAQ index was related with lower aortic aneurysm mortality and YLLs [mortality, coef -0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.06, -0.04; YLLs, coef -0.94, 95% CI -1.17, -0.71]. CONCLUSIONS: Age-standardized aortic aneurysm mortality declined globally between 1990 and 2017. Globally, age-standardized aortic aneurysm mortality and YLLs were related to changes in SDI and HAQ index levels, while country-level income-related variations were also observed.